Troo Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Thank you all for your participation Spoiler opening cards... meh, just too many clicks for me. 1 "Homecoming is not perfect but it is still better than the alternative.. at least so far" - Unknown (Wise words Unknown!) Si vis pacem, para bellum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glacier Peak Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 1 hour ago, Troo said: Thank you all for your participation Hide contents opening cards... meh, just too many clicks for me. I've been going the 6 mill under cut one these, soon they will drop to 5 with more entering the market. Everything seems to be dropping in price, converters, boosters, rare salvage, etc. Pocket D Zone Tour Best Post Ever.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindDemon21 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 22 hours ago, Faultline said: For the Heroes & Villains / Rogues & Vigilantes pack, every enhancement is weight 1 always, equal chance to drop regardless of card rarity. Can we get a list of which IOs are in which pack? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greycat Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 52 minutes ago, WindDemon21 said: Can we get a list of which IOs are in which pack? Listed on the wiki. Click the set you're interested in. 1 Primarily on Everlasting. Squid afficionado. Former creator of Copypastas. General smartalec. I tried to combine Circle and DE, but all I got were garden variety evil mages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yomo Kimyata Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 10 hours ago, Troo said: Thank you all for your participation Reveal hidden contents opening cards... meh, just too many clicks for me. 9 hours ago, Glacier Peak said: I've been going the 6 mill under cut one these, soon they will drop to 5 with more entering the market. Everything seems to be dropping in price, converters, boosters, rare salvage, etc. I set my noob traps before the event and adjusted bids thereafter. I figure I've created about a thousand synthetic Winter Packs by now. I can't wait until the event ends, then it's full on Market PvP! 1 Who run Bartertown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sakai Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 (edited) Synthetic Winter Packs? What might those be? Oh...you are buying things cheaply that you get in the packs. Edited December 3, 2020 by Sakai Moment of clarity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yomo Kimyata Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 17 minutes ago, Sakai said: Synthetic Winter Packs? What might those be? Oh...you are buying things cheaply that you get in the packs. Exactly. I figure that an "ideal" winter pack would be 1.2 WOs and 50 converters. Avoid that whole "Build Snow Beast" nonsense. 1 Who run Bartertown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rejolt Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Even though Avalanche has the coveted 5 percent melee defense in a paboe set, it's the most common of the IO drops. Might be a good set to low bid on even if you don't need them as conversion bait later. Thanks for D-Sync Enhancements! Just wish things like Resist/End, Heal/End and Damage/Mez had a third stat that made them more viable. Suggestions - add Recharge to Ribosomes, Range to Golgis, and Slows to Peroxisomes. These changes would allow for an endurance cost/range, recharge/endurance, and slow/mez or slow/damage enhancements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bopper Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 9 hours ago, Greycat said: Listed on the wiki. Click the set you're interested in. Thanks for the link. I noticed some of the probabilities were outdated so I posted the correct numbers here (2nd post): I also went ahead and posted the breakdown of each item you can collect, along with their count (which was missing from the HC Wiki link). 2 PPM Information Guide Survivability Tool Interface DoT Procs Guide Time Manipulation Guide Bopper Builds +HP/+Regen Proc Cheat Sheet Super Pack Drop Percentages Recharge Guide Base Empowerment: Temp Powers Bopper's Tools & Formulas Mids' Reborn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AboveTheChemist Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 1 hour ago, Bopper said: Thanks for the link. I noticed some of the probabilities were outdated so I posted the correct numbers here (2nd post): I added the two tables from the second post in your link to the Super Pack HC wiki page, along with references to the origin of the info. I'll drop a note in the wiki club about the other tables, as those will require a bit more time to incorporate. 1 Popmenus > Badge List | Optimal Paths | Conversion Possibilities | Emotes Wiki Pages > Costume Color Schemes | Set Bonus Comparison Tables Maps > Vidiotmaps | Optimal Paths | Halloween GM Maps | Winter Gift Maps | Offline Map Viewer Sounds > Banshee Sonic Attack Datasets > Recipe Salvage Components | Badge Name & Settitle ID | Exploration Badge & History Plaque Coordinates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yomo Kimyata Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 In theory, with this info from @Lunchmoney, someone* could put together a monte carlo simulator for fun and profit. * not it. Who run Bartertown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bopper Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 29 minutes ago, Yomo Kimyata said: In theory, with this info from @Lunchmoney, someone* could put together a monte carlo simulator for fun and profit. * not it. That's fairly easy to program, but what exactly do you want to see? PPM Information Guide Survivability Tool Interface DoT Procs Guide Time Manipulation Guide Bopper Builds +HP/+Regen Proc Cheat Sheet Super Pack Drop Percentages Recharge Guide Base Empowerment: Temp Powers Bopper's Tools & Formulas Mids' Reborn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yomo Kimyata Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, Bopper said: That's fairly easy to program, but what exactly do you want to see? I'd look for an expected value of a Winter Pack given certain sales prices for the components, e.g., WOs are worth X(set), merits are worth Y, etc. Run a simulation 10,000 or so times and come up with an E(WP), then vary the assumptions for scenario analysis. I could probably cobble something together relatively quickly in VBA (I'm not exactly an expert programmer), but it's perilously close to work-like activity, and I'm really only idly curious. I highly doubt that I'm going to go all in on Winter Packs this year. Who run Bartertown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bopper Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Yomo Kimyata said: I'd look for an expected value of a Winter Pack given certain sales prices for the components, e.g., WOs are worth X(set), merits are worth Y, etc. Run a simulation 10,000 or so times and come up with an E(WP), then vary the assumptions for scenario analysis. I could probably cobble something together relatively quickly in VBA (I'm not exactly an expert programmer), but it's perilously close to work-like activity, and I'm really only idly curious. I highly doubt that I'm going to go all in on Winter Packs this year. I provided a breakdown of average number of rewards per Super Pack (I'll copy it below). You could take those numbers and put in what the average value on the market is. Average per Pack Frosty Aegis 0.0441 Frost Bite 0.0441 Winter Ward 0.0441 Brain Storm Ideas 19.7125 Build Snow Beast 0.3256 Candy Canes 3.4716 Character Respec 0.0310 Enhancement Booster 0.2288 Enhancement Catalyst 0.1537 Enhancement Converter 0.7001 Enhancement Unslotter 0.7001 Winter IO 1.2079 Experienced 0.2699 Free Tailor Session 0.0667 Inspiration 0.9695 Reward Merits 9.7146 Windfall 0.0530 Edited December 3, 2020 by Bopper 1 1 PPM Information Guide Survivability Tool Interface DoT Procs Guide Time Manipulation Guide Bopper Builds +HP/+Regen Proc Cheat Sheet Super Pack Drop Percentages Recharge Guide Base Empowerment: Temp Powers Bopper's Tools & Formulas Mids' Reborn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yomo Kimyata Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 yup, that's easier! thanks! Who run Bartertown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ukase Posted December 4, 2020 Author Share Posted December 4, 2020 12 hours ago, Yomo Kimyata said: Exactly. I figure that an "ideal" winter pack would be 1.2 WOs and 50 merits. Avoid that whole "Build Snow Beast" nonsense. Fixed that for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ukase Posted December 4, 2020 Author Share Posted December 4, 2020 @Yomo - this is what I did for the hero/rogue packs. As a key of sorts - you can see the first line is Unslotters. The number to the right is the number of unslotters I got in the 50 packs. The 100,000 $ you see is what a low post price might be on the AH based on what I saw in the AH when I was opening the packs. I don't normally sell any of those things - so no idea really what they usually go for. The 6,400,000 is obviously the expected return, not accounting for the AH fee. As you can see, being a Rogue barely paid in this situation. It would be simple to set up a similar table in Excel, I would think. (this was done about a month ago - before the winter sale, which is why the prices may not reflect current market conditions.) 50 packs Hero 50 Packs Rogue Unslotters 64 100,000 $ 6,400,000 113 100,000 $ 11,300,000 Catalysts 15 1600000 $ 24,000,000 3 1600000 $ 4,800,000 Boosters 9 1000000 $ 9,000,000 17 1000000 $ 17,000,000 ATOs 58 6500000 $ 377,000,000 50 6500000 $ 325,000,000 Merits 550 210000 $ 115,500,000 450 210000 $ 94,500,000 Experienced 11 11 $ - Converter 80 70000 $ 5,600,000 60 70000 $ 4,200,000 Brain Storm 1040 25000 $ 26,000,000 1120 25000 $ 28,000,000 Amplifier 7 2500000 $ 17,500,000 9 2500000 $ 22,500,000 $ 581,000,000 $ 507,300,000 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lunchmoney Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 10 hours ago, Yomo Kimyata said: In theory, with this info from @Lunchmoney, someone* could put together a monte carlo simulator for fun and profit. * not it. What? Not sure why I'm being tagged here? I used to play under the handle @Purple Clown, back on Live. Now I play under @Lunchmoney I'm in the UK and play on Reunion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yomo Kimyata Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 5 hours ago, Lunchmoney said: What? Not sure why I'm being tagged here? I apologize, I am not sure why I meant @Faultlinebut somehow ended up with @Lunchmoney. I'm sure there is a Freudian reference in there somewhere. 1 Who run Bartertown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yomo Kimyata Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 9 hours ago, Ukase said: Fixed that for you. Actually, I really did mean converters. I started with 30 for the ~10 expected merits per pack, then rounded up to 50 because it seemed about right. Who run Bartertown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saikochoro Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 (edited) Well, I’m eating my earlier words. The biggest reason I haven’t used WOs in most of my builds is because of how expensive they are and the fact that they don’t give +rech bonuses. Since their price has tanked one of those hurdles is gone. So I decided to make a character that has two sets. Therefore I bought 16 packs. I don’t have all the data, but I do have the highlights. -25 merits total -over 500 brainstorm ideas -a lot of inspirations and temp powers -20 Winter O’s I am using 6 of the WOs and will sit on the other 14 until they start selling for 20m+ again. So, in the end, it will be profitable. I’m tempted to buy more, but at the same time don’t feel like sitting on most of my potential wealth for 8 months because I make new toons and kit them out so often. Cant afford to not be liquid. Edited December 8, 2020 by Saikochoro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Incursion Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 (edited) I'm completely clueless as to what these packs are and how to get them. Back in game for 3 weeks now, have been grinding my tail off buying all the IO's off the market. Can someone clue me in? Edited December 8, 2020 by Incursion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yomo Kimyata Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 5 minutes ago, Incursion said: I'm completely clueless as to what these packs are and how to get them. Back in game for 3 weeks now, have been grinding my tail off buying all the IO's off the market. Can someone clue me in? They are listed under salvage: special. They are in theory tradeable, but are seeded with 10mm available at (currently) 10mm a pack. Who run Bartertown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Incursion Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 15 minutes ago, Yomo Kimyata said: They are listed under salvage: special. They are in theory tradeable, but are seeded with 10mm available at (currently) 10mm a pack. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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