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Posted (edited)

Did some more overnight testing that was ended by today's surprise maintenance - apparently weekly restarts also affect the beta shards. Up to 1614 misses out of 33732 attacks, for an overall hit rate of 95.22%. I think we can put this one to bed.

Edited by macskull
accidentally a word

"If you can read this, I've failed as a developer." -- Caretaker

 

Proc information and chance calculator spreadsheet (last updated 15APR24)

Player numbers graph (updated every 15 minutes) Graph readme (now with Victory support!)

@macskull/@Not Mac | Twitch | Youtube

Posted (edited)
On 2/14/2025 at 5:08 PM, tidge said:

Any chance of testing with an AoE attack, like Fire Ball instead of a single target attack like Fire Blast?

43434 hits out of 45560 attempts, for an overall hit rate of 95.33%. Unfortunately log file sizes start to get really big with that many entries (this file was over 30MB for just 6 hours of data) and my normal means of analyzing the results slow down a lot when working with files that size.

Edited by macskull
  • Thanks 1

"If you can read this, I've failed as a developer." -- Caretaker

 

Proc information and chance calculator spreadsheet (last updated 15APR24)

Player numbers graph (updated every 15 minutes) Graph readme (now with Victory support!)

@macskull/@Not Mac | Twitch | Youtube

Posted (edited)

Hey, turns out a little bit of playing around with Python makes this whole thing a lot easier and I can just run it on an entire folder of logs at once! Still relies on manually inputting the strings to search for, but hey it's virtually instant compared with trying to Ctrl-F a 5000-page Word document.

 

image.png.9fba19fd4f7a3f3c6def42f9796fa239.png

 

image.png.82f7be6798c24894e79b2bdb9d95d8d2.png

Edited by macskull
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"If you can read this, I've failed as a developer." -- Caretaker

 

Proc information and chance calculator spreadsheet (last updated 15APR24)

Player numbers graph (updated every 15 minutes) Graph readme (now with Victory support!)

@macskull/@Not Mac | Twitch | Youtube

Posted (edited)

Last one, this is with everything together including another run from today. While this doesn't prove that the actual miss rate with streakbreaker factored in is 4.76% as some quick math would suggest, it does reveal that it is almost a statistical certainty that the true miss rate is less than 5%. Given that, there's not really any reason to doubt the overall hit rate to be the previously-calculated 95.24%. (Also, I should've been using Fireball from the very beginning. Considering how quickly it lets you get large amounts of hit rolls, I probably could have had close to a million attacks if I'd done it that way from the start.)

 

image.png.380520fb14ac351675f5a3fe432ea218.png

 

Oh, and here's the distribution of hit rolls from all those attacks.

 

image.png.26e172ea4f8579ebc3a188c841237dcb.png

Edited by macskull

"If you can read this, I've failed as a developer." -- Caretaker

 

Proc information and chance calculator spreadsheet (last updated 15APR24)

Player numbers graph (updated every 15 minutes) Graph readme (now with Victory support!)

@macskull/@Not Mac | Twitch | Youtube

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