Caveat Emptor!

[Ukase]

This top part, I've just added in my own spirit of transparency - which probably makes me look a lot like an ignoramus, and one with a tendency to over-react. I can't figure out why the first 50 packs were so horrible. But, on another character, I figured I would just write everything down, and be absolutely certain. 

So while opening the next set of 50..and I'm only on 19 packs..I've already gotten 300 reward merits. It should be closer to 190, based on my own estimate. So it appears that things will "even out", and I look more than a bit foolish with my speculation. 

But, I share it - rather than delete in case someone else is as impulsive as I am. 

Measure twice, cut once! 

 

 

 

 

 

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Now, I have nothing to prove this, but anecdotal evidence. I opened 50 packs. Now, aside from the XP boosters that they've stated they'll revert back during a next "non-critical" patch, there is something else that seems to be afoot. 

50 Winter Packs opened. Only 3x25 reward merits. I was expecting much, much better than that. Like an average of 10 merits per pack. If the RNG continues this way, that leaves me to wonder if I've been tricked with a bait and switch. 

And before anyone thinks I'm getting feeble and have mis-remembered - I refer you to this post: 

In this post, I continued to open these packs and while it's not an even 10 merits per pack average, it's fairly close. Granted, 50 packs isn't as large a number as 735 packs, but it's 2x as many as the initial 25 sample size. 

I cannot state any of the below with 100% certainty. It's speculation. Speculation based on a good bit of experience with these packs, but still speculation. And I'm not a statistical wizard. But I do know some statistics; I can determine within a 95% degree of certainty what's "likely" to occur, if I have a large enough sample size. 

So, it certainly seems like the HC Devs have fooled around with the packs! And jacked the previous sale price by 50%. So now they cost more, and have fewer merits, which were the best part about them, in my opinion. 

Glad I stopped buying when I did. Now I have to reconfigure things and ask the Devs why this wasn't in the patch notes. I do not accept "RNG" as the reason for my luck being particularly good last year, or particularly bad, this year. There's too much of a discrepancy in my estimation. I hate the idea of doing the math to determine the standard deviations away from the norm. 

Am I the only person that thinks this should have been disclosed in the patch notes? I can't imagine how hurt I would feel if I were a player that only had the price of a dozen packs and learned that what used to be in a pack has been adjusted. I mean, I can afford it, I'll never miss it, but that's bad form in my opinion. 

Edited December 7, 2021 by Ukase
Jumped to false conclusions.

[Bionic_Flea]

Measure twice, post once.  😜

[Black_Assassin]

So is it a worthwhile investment still in your opinion? I am considering burning my total net of 40B into them just for lolz (i don't actively play so it doesn't matter if I dont get crazy returns, just breaking even is the minimum requirement really).

[Hardship]

Sometimes the RNGesus just messes with you!

 

[Ukase]

10 hours ago, Black_Assassin said:

So is it a worthwhile investment still in your opinion? I am considering burning my total net of 40B into them just for lolz (i don't actively play so it doesn't matter if I dont get crazy returns, just breaking even is the minimum requirement really).

I wouldn't sink my total worth in them, no. But, I need to stay somewhat liquid to get my bids in and handle the usual marketing stuff. If you're someone who's able to WAIT until maybe next August, September, for folks to start working their way through their inventory, then yes, I think you can recoup your investment. 

The only time I've seen the RNG treat me so shamelessly is while converting...maybe 2 times out of 1000 IOs. Like, a really, really low fraction of the time. I was sure the devs broke it, or deliberately altered it in some way. And why? Because of this not-so-subtle push towards teaming. With a player having 1000's of merits from the packs...then why team? Players don't need to team to get those merits any more. Now, if they nerf the amount of merits, players may still solo to get them, but at least some of those people will team more often to get them.