Dreamkiller badge

[KaizenSoze]

Dreamkiller Wiki Page

 

I ground this out this weekend on two characters. I was curious how many runs on average it would take to complete the badge. So, I asked Reddit.

 

Spoiler

 

 

The two answers I got were very close. On average 16-18 rounds are needed to get all 16 nightmares, 35-36 for 90% certainty, 47 for 99.9%. An quick farm round takes between 5-10 mins. Expect around 3 hours of farming to get the badge.

 

It is possible that the nightmares are not equally distributed, which would screw up the calculations. Alas, unless someone runs the nightmare farm 100+ times to get a statistically significant result. I have to assume that all nightmare are equally random.

 

Something to consider when planning for this badge.

 

 

[Ironblade]

21 hours ago, KaizenSoze said:

It is possible that the nightmares are not equally distributed, which would screw up the calculations. Alas, unless someone runs the nightmare farm 100+ times to get a statistically significant result. I have to assume that all nightmare are equally random.

Player reactions suggest that the distribution is not uniform.  I have been on many runs and there are certain monsters who will prompt comments like, "You don't see him often."  I have seen this comment made about Caleb more than once.  On the other hand, my personal impression is that Babbage shows up way too often.

 

Nothing scientific or involving actual stats here - just my impressions and observations.

[KaizenSoze]

10 minutes ago, Ironblade said:

Player reactions suggest that the distribution is not uniform.  I have been on many runs and there are certain monsters who will prompt comments like, "You don't see him often."  I have seen this comment made about Caleb more than once.  On the other hand, my personal impression is that Babbage shows up way too often.

 

Nothing scientific or involving actual stats here - just my impressions and observations.

Yes, but human myself very much included are very prone to misunderstanding frequency. 🙂

 

People were saying the similar things on each farm. First farm, Kronos must be the rare one. Second farm, at least 3-4 Kronos spawns, Paladin must be the rare one, who appear 1-3 times in the first farm. By the end of the second farm, even I was buying into the Paladin was rare thinking and I should know better!

 

Randomnesses means streaks or anti streaks. Human brains just don't handle that well.

[lemming]

I've often suspected the RNG to have odd streaks, but human bias probably.

I did a similar calculation to figure how many rounds it would likely take to get the last ones my badger needed, and it was pretty close to the math heavy answer.  I think I wound up needing two more rounds than the average result I had calculated.

[Milk Sheik]

This badge was a freaking slog to get, we farmed it and it took me about a week to get Eochai.