shortguy on indom

FUN FUN.

CAN YA FEEL IT YET?

MAYBE WE CAN WRITE THE AUTHOR OF THE FORMULA AT THE FINANACIAL INSTITUTION AND TELL THEM. THE SPREADSHEET IS SHOWING LOSING STREAKS, AND SHOWS WHAT IT SHOWS. IF IT IS REALLY HARMING THE THREAD WILL REMOVE.

lolz... you know what its max can be, or you would not have mentioned it. no need to put min maxes in there for clarity.

Warning Math Ahead: For TLDR scroll down...or past. 45% defense when solo, facing a single enemy: (scenario: defeated everything but the remaining AV). given: enemy +3/AV all enemies have = 0.5 BaseHitChance enemy's power inherent Acc = 1.0 enemy RankAcc = 1.5 enemy LevelAcc = 1.3 so: Every attack from the enemy can hit only you, since there are zero other team members. Estimated Probability of getting hit (when you have 45% defense): Enemy AccMod = (enemy's power inherent Acc) X (enemy RankAcc) X (enemy LevelAcc) = 1 x 1.5 x 1.3 (note: these values taken from 'Attack Mechanics' wiki page). = 1.95 = 0.95 due to clamping New Enemy ChanceToHit = enemy AccMod x (enemy BaseHitChance - player's defense%) = 0.95 x (0.50 - 0.45) = 0.95 x (0.05) = 0.0475 = 4.75% Now the fun part: Estimated Probability of toon getting hit in consecutive attacks: Note: All attacks enemy has are 0.95 AccMod. (for giggles because if enemy's inherent Acc for various attacks is different, so everything changes).* ...it defaults to lowest ChanceToHit attack... the one with lowest inherent power Acc. 1st attack = 0.0475 = 4.75% 2nd = 0.0475 x 0.0475 = 0.0022 = 0.22% 3rd = 0.0475 x 0.0475 x 0.0475 = 0.0001 = 0.01% 4th = 0.000005 = 0.0005% 5th = 0.0000002 = 0.00002% 6th = 0.00000001 = 0.000001% etc. it's basically all enemy whiffs. The probability changes with different enemy powers if they (each) have a different inherent Acc. Now lets take a step after and see what streakbreaker does... because this is how the game works: https://archive.paragonwiki.com/wiki/Attack_Mechanics#The_Streak_Breaker "The system does not track each power individually; instead it tracks every miss you (the ENEMY) makes in a row, regardless of power (or target)."* when solo... same +3/AV and 45% defense conditions as above. For any enemy whose "New Enemy ChanceToHit = 0.0475" is between 0 to 0.2 from chart above... = 100 consecutive misses allowed... then streakbreaker guarantees a hit on hit #101.* So the probability of getting consecutively hit with is now looking like this due to streakbreaker: *Remember this example is for solo play. (when playing with a team, everything changes, because enemy counts misses and adds them up from different team members). 1st attack = 0.0475 = 4.75% (this rounds to 5% which is always the minimum ChanceToHit). 2nd = 0.0475 x 0.0475 = 0.0022 = 0.22% 3rd = 0.0475 x 0.0475 x 0.0475 = 0.0001 = 0.01% 4th = 0.000005 = 0.0005% ... *101st = 1.00 = 100%. Every 101 times enemy attack will hit. The chances of attack #1, #2, #3, #4 through #100 still may happen, but the chances happening are very very low. 100 misses and then get hit. Rinse and repeat. That 45% defense page from the wiki does not hold water. I showed the only situation where it may work (that I can come up with) in the example above... solo play with enemy having only same inherent Acc in every attack power.

YEP

FINALLY... TO SHOW THE MATH... IF I MUST TO SATISY THE MATH SCHOLARS ON STEROIDS... NATURAL LOG METHOD... USE AT WILL. defense losing streak calculator - Copy.ods

...JUST WANTED TO SHOW IN THIS THREAD TO SHOW THAT EVEN WITH ONLY 5 CONSECUTIVE ATTACKS, THE CHANCE TO GET HIT IS MORE THAN THE CRAZY FORUMALS COME UP WITH ABOVE FOR 95% CHANCE TO HIT.....THIS EQUATES TO A +3/AV. (WHICH BY MATH = 95% ENEMY CHANCE TO HIT). STREAKBREAKER ADDS TO ENEMY CHANCE TO HIT IN THIS CASE. WAITING OVER.

SINCE I ALREADY HAVE IT HANDY... 😐 IT BASICALLY STATISTICALLY IMPOSSIBLE BTW TO FOR THE GAME FOR 0.2 CHANCE TO HIT BECAUSE IT WOULD TAKE OVER 2,000,000 CONSECUTIVE ATTACKS ... 1 MILL SHOWN BELOW.

STREAKBREAKER IS A SEPARATE ISSUE AND MECHANIC THAT IS APPLIED AFTER A MISS, SINCE IT'S APPLIED AFTER AN ATTACK MISS, IT INDEED DOES CHANGE THE NUMBERS OF ONE'S END CHANCE OF GETTING HIT. ...AND I RESPPECTFULLY DISAGREE WITH THAT CONCLUSION AND THE APPLICATION OF STATING THAT FORMULA WORKS FINE FOR ALL ATTACK TYPES. GOING TO SHOW THE WHY IN OTHER THREAD. ONE DOES NOT GET HIT MULTIPLE TIMES IF THE ENEMY HITS YOU WITH AN AOE... JUST ONCE.

AGREE WITH THE TRAP COMMENTS MYSELF BUT MAYBE FOR OTHER REASONS. HAS ITS PLACE AS A WAY AS AN ESTABLISHED WAY TO PLAY FOR SOME. ONCE THE PERCIEVED BENIFITS ARE UNWRAPPED... MAYBE MORE OR MAYBE LESS WILL BUILD WITH THIS STRATEGY IN MIND.

LONG STORY SHORT... CLEARING THIS UP FIRST. MY EXAMPLE IS SHOWING WHAT HAPPENS WHEN AN ENEMY TRIES TO HIT YOU WITH 'SINGLE TARGET' ATTACK AFTER ATTACK. MAELWYS IS SHOWING A DIFFERENT TYPE OF ENEMY ATTACK... LIKE AoE. 🚬 APPLES AND ORANGES. ...AND STILL NOT ACCURATE BECAUSE... 45% STORY... THIS WHOLE IDEA AS PRESENTED IN THE ABOVE TWO EXAMPLES IS LACKING THE EFFECT OF 'STREAKBREAKER.' (I DID NOT WANT TO GET INTO THIS AS DEEPLY IN THIS THREAD, AND MENTIONED MY PERSONAL FEELING ABOUT IT HERE. WAS NOT TO BE EVASIVE, IT JUST DID NOT SEEM LIKE THE PLACE TO DO IT... SO STARTED ANOTHER THREAD).

WILL GET TO THAT. THE SUSPENSE? ☺️

LEGENDARY 45% SOFTCAP: THIS IS WHERE IT ALL BEGINS... Defense Effectiveness - Paragon Wiki Archive the whys and why nots...

...AND THAT RIGHT THERE WAS DETAILED EXAMPLE... OF WHY THIS CONTINUES TO BE BELIEVED...

JUXTAPOSITION MORE LIKE.

45% IS ABSOLUTELY NADA.

BUT WHAT ABOUT THE BLAH AND BLAH BLAH THE DEVS TIME AND STUFF? HOPE YOU GET UR WISH.

I LIKE PIE.

SOMETIMES THE COMPLEXITIES ARE JUST WIVE'S TALES.

SECOND THIS MOTION. WOULD BE NICE TO ABLE TO EMPTY OUT YOUR POCKETS. ...ANOTHER UNRELATED THING WAS THAT NO 'PREMIUM MINI-PET' WAS OFFERED BY LUNA THIS YEAR, BUMMER.

...SO YOU ARE USING IT AS A SHORT-TIME 'SHUUSH'?

A TEMPORARY UNIGNORE FEATURE SEEMS WHERE THE CROWD IS TAKING THIS?

YEAH BUT +MAXHP.

WAS USING SANDBOXIE FOR 10+ YEARS WITH NO ANTI-VI OR ANYTHING ELSE NEEDED. IT WAS FREE... NOW ITS OPENSOURCE, AND STILL FREE, AND STILL USING IT ON MY WINDOWS LAPTOP, AND ALSO RUN LINUX ON OTHER LAPTOP. Sandboxie-Plus | Open Source sandbox-based isolation software