shortguy on indom

THIS THREAD SHOULD BE MOVED TO THE "SUGGESTIONS" SUB-FORUM, WHERE THE REVIEWER WILL REGRET THAT THEY POSTED ANYTHING AT ALL.

cannot spin outta this one eh? ... can youuuuu dig it!

more... from copilot: believe this would be if enemy threw a splat attack: (of course this is if enemy had 50% final chance to hit...but you get the idea). may you please solve the all 8 events dependent on one another as above if each event has 50% probability? Certainly! Since each event has a probability of 50% (or 0.5) and all 8 events are dependent on one another, the overall probability of all 8 occurring follows this formula: P(A1)×P(A2∣A1)×P(A3∣A1,A2)×⋯×P(A8∣A1,A2,...,A7)P(A_1) \times P(A_2 | A_1) \times P(A_3 | A_1, A_2) \times \dots \times P(A_8 | A_1, A_2, ..., A_7) Since each event has a conditional probability of 50%, the calculation becomes: 0.5×0.5×0.5×0.5×0.5×0.5×0.5×0.5=0.580.5 \times 0.5 \times 0.5 \times 0.5 \times 0.5 \times 0.5 \times 0.5 \times 0.5 = 0.5^8 =0.0039 or 0.39%

not me, copilot answer here. lol. chance of all 8 events happening The chance of all 8 events happening depends on the probability of each individual event and whether they are independent or dependent on one another. If all 8 events are independent and each has its own probability, you multiply their probabilities together to get the likelihood of all occurring. For example, if each event has a probability of 50% (0.5), the chance of all 8 happening would be: 0.58=0.0039 or 0.39%0.5^8 = 0.0039 \text{ or } 0.39\% If some of these events are dependent, their probabilities might change based on previous outcomes. If you have specific probabilities for each event, I can help you calculate the overall probability more precisely!

disingenuous... good lawyer and true, but it has everything to do with reality.

in a team setting... sure. a mix of 10%/35% or any other combo of def to tohitdebuff that sums to 45%. can you dig it?

another reality... if playing on a full team there is only a 1 of 8 chance of being hit by a range attack, right?

all hype, disingenuous at least. one could have 0% defense and 45% tohitdebuff and it would yield same result according to the formula.

...STREAKBREAKER ONLY TRACKS MISSES OF THE ATTACKER. NOTHING WRONG WITH CHART. IF IT ENDS UP BEING 20%, CHART IS STILL CORRECT.

ITS 42.75757575..YOU MAY HAVE USED THE WRONG FORMULA. 💟

SO, THE WIKI SAYS THE STREAKBREAKER TRACKS ATTACKERS (THE ENEMY IN THIS CASE), NOT POWERS. THINK WHATEVER THE REASON THE POWER MISSES, IS REASON ENOUGH.

MY UNDERSTANDING IS THAT STREAKBREAKER IS SEPERATE MECHANIC AND APPLIED ONLY IF THERE IS A MISS. SO, I REKON A MISS COULD STILL BE HAD BECAUSE OF A HIT-ROLL...

POINT OF THIS: IF THE ENEMY HAS A 95% CHANCETOHIT (I.E. +3/AV), JUST BECAUSE OF STREAKBREAKER, YOU THE TOON, ARE GOING TO GET HIT EVERY OTHER STRIKE..... NO MATTER HOW MUCH DEFENSE YOU HAVE OR HAVE NOT... ...OTHER THAN INCARNATE BARRIER RIGHT?

YOU GOT ME...IT'S NOT EXACTLY 'CITY OF HEROES' SPECIFIC. ITS ALWAYS AT LEAST A 5% CHANCE... BUT THAT DOES NOT MEAN THAT IT CANNOT HAPPEN. SO ITS A 'BELL CURVE' SHAPE, THINGS TEND TO GET WONKY AT THE EDGES... SAME IDEA AT 95%.

READ THE TITLE OF THE CHART.

WHAT HAPPENS WHEN ENEMY CHANCETOHIT IS FLOORED BY TOHITDEBUFFS?... LOL

CHANCES OF NOT GETTING HIT CONSECUTIVE TIMES.... PLEASE REALIZES THIS IS IF YOU ARE SOLO... WITH A FULL TEAM WOULD BE FAR LESS RIGHT?.... OR MAYBE SO MUCH LESS THAT DOES NOT MATTER? FIRST SCREEN IS WITHOUT THE EFFECT OF STREAKBREAKER. SECOND SCREEN IS WITH STREAKBREAKER. WHICH IS WHAT GAME DOES... *ADDED NOT ABOVE.*

FUN FUN.

CAN YA FEEL IT YET?

MAYBE WE CAN WRITE THE AUTHOR OF THE FORMULA AT THE FINANACIAL INSTITUTION AND TELL THEM. THE SPREADSHEET IS SHOWING LOSING STREAKS, AND SHOWS WHAT IT SHOWS. IF IT IS REALLY HARMING THE THREAD WILL REMOVE.

lolz... you know what its max can be, or you would not have mentioned it. no need to put min maxes in there for clarity.

Warning Math Ahead: For TLDR scroll down...or past. 45% defense when solo, facing a single enemy: (scenario: defeated everything but the remaining AV). given: enemy +3/AV all enemies have = 0.5 BaseHitChance enemy's power inherent Acc = 1.0 enemy RankAcc = 1.5 enemy LevelAcc = 1.3 so: Every attack from the enemy can hit only you, since there are zero other team members. Estimated Probability of getting hit (when you have 45% defense): Enemy AccMod = (enemy's power inherent Acc) X (enemy RankAcc) X (enemy LevelAcc) = 1 x 1.5 x 1.3 (note: these values taken from 'Attack Mechanics' wiki page). = 1.95 = 0.95 due to clamping New Enemy ChanceToHit = enemy AccMod x (enemy BaseHitChance - player's defense%) = 0.95 x (0.50 - 0.45) = 0.95 x (0.05) = 0.0475 = 4.75% Now the fun part: Estimated Probability of toon getting hit in consecutive attacks: Note: All attacks enemy has are 0.95 AccMod. (for giggles because if enemy's inherent Acc for various attacks is different, so everything changes).* ...it defaults to lowest ChanceToHit attack... the one with lowest inherent power Acc. 1st attack = 0.0475 = 4.75% 2nd = 0.0475 x 0.0475 = 0.0022 = 0.22% 3rd = 0.0475 x 0.0475 x 0.0475 = 0.0001 = 0.01% 4th = 0.000005 = 0.0005% 5th = 0.0000002 = 0.00002% 6th = 0.00000001 = 0.000001% etc. it's basically all enemy whiffs. The probability changes with different enemy powers if they (each) have a different inherent Acc. Now lets take a step after and see what streakbreaker does... because this is how the game works: https://archive.paragonwiki.com/wiki/Attack_Mechanics#The_Streak_Breaker "The system does not track each power individually; instead it tracks every miss you (the ENEMY) makes in a row, regardless of power (or target)."* when solo... same +3/AV and 45% defense conditions as above. For any enemy whose "New Enemy ChanceToHit = 0.0475" is between 0 to 0.2 from chart above... = 100 consecutive misses allowed... then streakbreaker guarantees a hit on hit #101.* So the probability of getting consecutively hit with is now looking like this due to streakbreaker: *Remember this example is for solo play. (when playing with a team, everything changes, because enemy counts misses and adds them up from different team members). 1st attack = 0.0475 = 4.75% (this rounds to 5% which is always the minimum ChanceToHit). 2nd = 0.0475 x 0.0475 = 0.0022 = 0.22% 3rd = 0.0475 x 0.0475 x 0.0475 = 0.0001 = 0.01% 4th = 0.000005 = 0.0005% ... *101st = 1.00 = 100%. Every 101 times enemy attack will hit. The chances of attack #1, #2, #3, #4 through #100 still may happen, but the chances happening are very very low. 100 misses and then get hit. Rinse and repeat. That 45% defense page from the wiki does not hold water. I showed the only situation where it may work (that I can come up with) in the example above... solo play with enemy having only same inherent Acc in every attack power.

YEP