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Confuse IO Set Conversion Statistical Imbalance?


CrudeVileTerror

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I've noticed this trend for a long while, but only started to document it recently.

Starting with Attuned Perplex IOs, Converting them within Category, the results seem to be heavily weighted toward Malaise's Illusions.

I'm not complaining, but I imagine there might be some kind of issue at play here.

 

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becomes

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image.png.4d8f5417d0095152ab2b4b63d0cad324.png2021-01-10 (I got a lot of the Perplexes on the 10th)

 

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Seems to be working as intended. Attuned IOs are still bound by (upperbound?) level-range rules when using conversion methods.

 

Both Malaise and Perplex are the only level 20-50 Confuse IOs you could convert into by category.

 

Since you can't roll into the same IO, you basically have a

" 6 (Malaise) / 11 (Malaise + Perplex - Current) "

chance to receive Malaise if you're starting from a Perplex.

 

Edited by Nayeh
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Sorry, let me see if I'm getting the math correct here . . . 

With the level range of the IOs mattering while they're Attuned, the weights should be something like  . . . 

66.7~% chance of a Malaise, a 16.7~% chance of a Cacophony, and another 16.7~% chance of a Befuddling?

And my results of a roughly 75% to 80% Malaise is just a statistical outlier, with the 0.4% Befuddling being REALLY anomalous, but within acceptable realm of possibility?

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10 hours ago, Nayeh said:

Befuddling Aura and Cacophony are both level 10-30 IOs. You shouldn't be getting them unless the item's level were somehow marked internally, while Attuned, at those respective level ranges.

It seems to be marked internally somehow, because when l was converting some other sets - it sometimes was beginning to drop only those Enhs, whose are present at LvL 40. However, if attuned enh's bought from AH it seems that it doesn't have such issue. Tested onto some DEF or RES sets, whose lvl 50 sets start with 20, and covers also ...

 

Btw.: maybe internal enh's level changes with each conversion, and it can convert only to ENH that is present in Current ENH level. This way only enhs with 20-30 internal level are going to convert down.

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