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Andreah

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Andreah last won the day on May 15

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About Andreah

  • Birthday 01/01/1004

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  1. Possession may not be 100% of the law -- but it is 9/10ths. A player may not be breaking the rules in an actionable sense, but this is still a gross violation of well understood etiquette, shows they're an asshat, and I'd put them on my personal block list. Go find your own place to ToT. The only reason a single player or even a small team would camp the hotel a league is working is to quietly kill steal. There is no way they could ensure they were only defeating their own spawns and they know it. All this effing childish trash behavior is why I don't lead leagues or participate in this event at all anymore.
  2. The league is not "laying claim" to the hotel -- they are laying claim to the mobs that would not have spawned except for their group efforts. In years past (this topic comes up every year, like clockwork) the GM's have said that they may, within their discretion, take actions against multi-boxers, kill-stealers and leeches when they are reported. There's an established etiquette that makes this fair and tolerable for most people. The problem comes from the few people who believe that doesn't apply to them and they can do whatever the hell they want wherever and whenever they want, and that's just not true here.
  3. Honest, just like it real-world, trick or treat should be limited to one night once a year. To be fair, we'll make it over a 24 hour period. Work has you travelling to Nowifiville that day? Too bad. There's always next year. Or make it a purely solo system, where phased foes come out and can only be fought by you., and only if you are not on a team.
  4. I think it's cool that you've put thought into what the level-progression for your look and roleplay should be -- that's awesome! Right there I am confident you'll make the right choices for yourself, and I don't feel I should critique those specific choices other than to say I appreciate and respect the thought you've put into them. Past that, I don't think you can go wrong.
  5. Here are two examples that flip the script on "level-appropriate" resources. I can easily see a player carrying off either of these without truoble... Level-1 Billionaire Crime Fighter: Picture a tech-mogul who's got unlimited funds for gadgets, suits, and a private helipad in Atlas Park. But on day one? He's a newb. Fumbling his grapples and can't travel fast, his high-tech visor shorting out in the rain. Early patrols are all flash and frustration, evolving as he earns street smarts, and refines his gear and techniques (He has to level up like the rest of us). Ancient Spirit-Infused Vagabond: An ethereal force of justice (straight out of the Well of the Furies lore) possesses a down-and-out nobody, granting top-tier powers overnight -- blasts that crumple Freak Tanks, teleporting long distances. No rent, no meals needed; by day he just wanders back alleys in tattered robes, thinking philosophically and observing the troubles of common folks. His "homeless" look stays in rags by choice, he knows true power doesn't need polish.
  6. I personally don't think there is a consensus -- nor does there need to be. You could portray a world-famous hero from level 1, or have a level 50/incarnate who's a penniless homeless person. It comes down to your preference, and secondarily, your talent at characterizing that person through your creativity and talented roleplay.
  7. pCloud music link: https://u.pcloud.link/publink/show?code=XZ0hun5Zu3Wl3Cd9PtjoIOroNTOfeXqhxASy
  8. It creates pretty good tables sometimes, but the format markups its good with aren't easy to put into the forums. If I were to export them to a spreadsheet, and then touch them up for posting, it might go better, but then I'm doing the grunt work I expect it to be able to do.
  9. I guided an advanced AI through this thread, and it had these observations to offer. They have been double-checked by yet another AI in deep thinking mode, and passes my sniff-test as a retired professional computational statistician. It had trouble on the second table due to doing its own research to find current prices of pieces, which I believe it found by generally stale mentions in these forums. Formatting was at the AI's discretion. ------------------------ Deep Dive into Enhancement Conversion RNG: Math, Markets, and Maximizing Profits I was directed to Ukase's thread on the wild RNG of converting (especially those sweet Miracle procs in LotG), and it got me down a rabbit hole of math and market analysis. Figured I'd summarize some key insights here—blending the thread's vibes with some probabilistic breakdowns and arbitrage thresholds. If you're grinding converters or flipping recipes, this might help turn those streaks into steady inf. The Core Math: Odds, Expectations, and Streaks Conversions follow a geometric distribution due to the "no self-conversion" rule. For a set with K types (e.g., K=6 for LotG, K=5 for Kismet), starting from a random non-premium piece: Success Probability per Conversion: p=1/(K−1) (e.g., 1/5 for LotG). Expected Conversions per Candidate: E[N]=(K−1)^2/K (≈4.17 for LotG; 3.2 for Kismet). Lucky Run Odds (e.g., Ukase's 3-in-a-row first-try successes, assuming non-premium starts): p^3 = 1/125 (0.8%). Exact (including initial hits): 1/K^3=1/216. For M candidates to get one premium: E[Ntotal]=[(K−1)/K]^M⋅(K−1) (drops to ~0.6 for M=10). Tail Risk (bad streaks): P(Ntotal≥10)≈0.09 for M=1, but rarer with more candidates. K M E[Ntotal] P(Ntotal>E) P(Ntotal≥10) P(Ntotal≥20) 6 1 4.167 0.341 0.112 0.012 6 3 2.894 0.370 0.078 0.008 6 10 0.808 0.162 0.022 0.002 5 1 3.200 0.338 0.060 0.003 Bottom line: Streaks feel brutal (15 fails? ~3% chance), but EV favors persisting if costs < sale premium. Profitable Arbitrage: Buy Low, Convert, Sell High With a 10% AH fee on sales and C=60k per converter, the break-even buy price Umax⁡ for a non-premium recipe/base is 0.9P−(K−1)C, where P is the premium listing price. Buy below this for +EV. Examples from thread prices: Set K P Umax⁡ Profitable U Profit Potential LotG (current undercut) 6 2.5M 1.95M 1.95M ~0.55M avg (at U=1.5M) LotG (original) 6 4M 3.3M 3.3M ~1.3M avg (at U=1M) Kismet (+ToHit) 5 4M 3.36M 3.36M ~0.8-1.8M (base ~2M) Pro Tip: Only convert if P−B>1.11(K−1)C (vs. selling base B as-is). Thread's ~1M deltas crush this for premiums, but skip low-delta types like Def/End. Thread Nuances: Beyond the Numbers The discussion nails the human side—RNG isn't just math; it's tilt city: Psych Hacks: "7-try rule" for breaks (not scientific, but beats gambler's fallacy). Stubborn streaks? Curiosity kills the EV. Market Mayhem: Flippers tank P to 2.5M, but flooding with 200+ Miracles (Ukase's 125M haul) forces creep back up. Merit-buy converters at 60k equivalent avoids AH drain. Set Smarts: Kismet > LotG on EV (fewer types). PvP? Skip globals—farm cheap non-procs and self-convert (30%+ odds in Glad Armor). Overall, conversions are a grindy goldmine if you treat it like a business: Bulk buys under Umax⁡, merit sourcing, and walk away from bad vibes. Cheers, AI-Market-Analyst ------------------------------- Note: AI's used, Kimi-K2 and Grok 4 Heavy (expert mode)
  10. The AI's I use to research for writing, check game lore, look up mechanics, etc., all peruse the unofficial wiki without hiccups. The bot-checks must have cut outs for them.
  11. I'd love to see that too. Both the rate of new character being created, and the rate of characters reaching milestones like levels 20, 40, 50, etc.
  12. I go after surgeons, too. Often I just teleport them into the team's kill-box.
  13. One nuance is that your character isn't really shorter, they just look short. They'll still have the same hit-box, etc.
  14. I get this impression from people, too. Some will, with some seeming pride, that they list everything low so that less wealthy players can get them. And maybe in some circumstances that happens, but I just don't see it for the great majority.
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