I think the RNG hates me

[Snarky]

33 minutes ago, Erratic1 said:

I just successfully manage to fill the last recipe slot on my veteran level 24 sentinel with a non-basic, crafted recipe. He has not run Market Crash. The routine has been to clear out basic recipes whenever his 80 slots were filled. Mind you, I have not actually kept every non-basic recipe. I tend to go through the recipes and sell the ones which low sell prices and which I know I have no build across my hundred or so characters would use. How many cheapie, non-basic recipes has he sold? No idea. I would guess probably no more than 40.

 

He has not a single purple recipe.

 

Effectively he has had 120 slots to fill and has only kept set recipe drops. If what I am reading is correct purples drop at a 2.4% rate? So on average one might have expected 2.8 purple drops?  Or turning this around, there was a 97.6% chance of not getting a purple drop, so the odds of no purples at all in 120 tries would be 1-0.976^120=5.4%

 

I think it is fair to call that unlucky.

 

Of course I have other level 50s. My "flagship" character has 3 purples. Take out that he has done Market Crash and he's roughly at the expected number.

 

Hmmm...not sure I want to trawl through all my 50s and try to remember who has MC'd and who has not.

Purples are level 50 recipes.  They drop from crowds that drop level 50 recipes.  If you are teaming with a 50 in the lead even if you are level 1 you have a shot.  If you are running level 40s content or below your odds are not as good.   Zero is poor odds

[Erratic1]

6 minutes ago, Snarky said:

Purples are level 50 recipes.  They drop from crowds that drop level 50 recipes.  If you are teaming with a 50 in the lead even if you are level 1 you have a shot.  If you are running level 40s content or below your odds are not as good.   Zero is poor odds

 

Yes, I realize how they drop. Like I said in my post, I clear out the low price selling stuff. And yes, I realize how lower level characters get level 50 recipes (because I am selling those all the time).

 

 As I noted, one character was unlucky and another was (roughlyish) at expected.

 

 I suspect some personalities are more prone to noticing unlucky breaks than lucky ones. As a case of lucky breaks, I bought 6 copies of the same enhancement from Preventive Medicine last week because they were selling for way lower than the rest of the set (well under half in fact) and the idea was to run all but one through in-set conversion with expectation that half would turn into something useful. Four conversions in each had turned into something different, so I was only short one enhancement for set completion. 

 

Which is likely to be remembered by me 2 years from now...the lack of purples on a character or the lucky conversion streak? Betting the lack. Check with me in 2 years.

[Grouchybeast]

4 hours ago, Erratic1 said:

Effectively he has had 120 slots to fill and has only kept set recipe drops. If what I am reading is correct purples drop at a 2.4% rate?

 

2.4% sounds like the Pool A roll chance for a Rare recipe (2.44% according to the wiki). 

 

I don't know how up-to-date the HC Wiki drop rates are, and I couldn't find any note of drop rate changes in the SCoRE period, so the best value I could find for Very Rare recipes is the enemy defeat drop rate estimate from Live of 1 in 5000 to 1 in 1500, i.e. 0.02% - 0.067%.  So very approximately, for every 100 Rare recipe drops at level 50, you should get 1 purple.  For Uncommon recipes it's roughly 1 purple for every 1000 Uncommons.  They really are Very rare.

Edited January 10, 2023 by Grouchybeast

[tidge]

21 hours ago, Erratic1 said:

I just successfully manage to fill the last recipe slot on my veteran level 24 sentinel with a non-basic, crafted recipe. He has not run Market Crash. The routine has been to clear out basic recipes whenever his 80 slots were filled. Mind you, I have not actually kept every non-basic recipe. I tend to go through the recipes and sell the ones which low sell prices and which I know I have no build across my hundred or so characters would use. How many cheapie, non-basic recipes has he sold? No idea. I would guess probably no more than 40.

 

This may be obvious, and it may or may not apply: make sure you actually have room on the character's recipe inventory to hold a drop, should you get one.

[Scarlet Shocker]

18 hours ago, Grouchybeast said:

 

2.4% sounds like the Pool A roll chance for a Rare recipe (2.44% according to the wiki). 

 

I don't know how up-to-date the HC Wiki drop rates are, and I couldn't find any note of drop rate changes in the SCoRE period, so the best value I could find for Very Rare recipes is the enemy defeat drop rate estimate from Live of 1 in 5000 to 1 in 1500, i.e. 0.02% - 0.067%.  So very approximately, for every 100 Rare recipe drops at level 50, you should get 1 purple.  For Uncommon recipes it's roughly 1 purple for every 1000 Uncommons.  They really are Very rare.

 

I would gladly take Very Rare over Non-Existent*

 

I too remember something about the SCoRE adjustment but couldn't find any data to back it up but even if that were true, has that translated to HC? Certainly for the hours of 50+ content I've played my drop levels seem to be very low, not just of purples but of other recipes.

 

Question: Are the drop-rates in the AE the same as in the rest of the game? I have spent some hours on a number of toons running lvl 50 content in AE farms and I notice what appears to be a significantly lower percentage of drops of anything other than SOs. Is that a factor? Do DXP boosts affect drops?

 

 

 

 

 

 

_{*Disclaimer: That is slightly facetious (for the avoidance of doubt)}

[Scarlet Shocker]

BREAKING:

 

I got a purple on the ITF last night! I almost fell over in shock. 😄

[Snarky]

5 minutes ago, Scarlet Shocker said:

BREAKING:

 

I got a purple on the ITF last night! I almost fell over in shock. 😄

in a....scarlet shock?

[Scarlet Shocker]

/em rimshot