The Monologue Thread

[iBot]

My 0.02 inf for what it is worth:

 

Wouldn't the market naturally fall as more and more players are able to do the "self found" thing?  Think of it this way.  I am probably in the severe minority in that I don't have a personal base that isn't stocked to breaking full of salvage, recipes and crafted items.  But how many are out there that do have those bases filled?  And why would those players ever need the AH again?  So prices start to fall because fewer players are buying and players start to get impatient that items aren't selling so they start to list things for less and less until a new balance is found.  New influx of players see these new prices and figure that is the norm so when major marketeers attempt to boost the price back up there is a revolt of sorts and the price again drops back to the lower levels.

 

Thoughts?  Or am I crazy?... well... OK that part is true but the question still stands. 🤪

[Yomo Kimyata]

1 hour ago, iBot said:

My 0.02 inf for what it is worth:

 

Wouldn't the market naturally fall as more and more players are able to do the "self found" thing?  Think of it this way.  I am probably in the severe minority in that I don't have a personal base that isn't stocked to breaking full of salvage, recipes and crafted items.  But how many are out there that do have those bases filled?  And why would those players ever need the AH again?  So prices start to fall because fewer players are buying and players start to get impatient that items aren't selling so they start to list things for less and less until a new balance is found.  New influx of players see these new prices and figure that is the norm so when major marketeers attempt to boost the price back up there is a revolt of sorts and the price again drops back to the lower levels.

 

Thoughts?  Or am I crazy?... well... OK that part is true but the question still stands. 🤪

 

I agree completely, which is another reason I continue to take profits now rather than later.  Some factors I see/anticipate:

 

1.  Overall gradually declining player base. 

2.  Existing player base making new alts at a declining rate.

3.  More people "making their own" rather than buying retail.

4.  More people doing challenges that don't rely on high cost builds.

5.  People periodically liquidating their stashes.

 

Then again, I've been calling for the sky to fall for a while now, so what do I know?

[iBot]

I don't necessarily think the sky is falling but I do think that until there is another big influx of new/returning players or somehow in the future HC is considered "less legally dubious" we'll have to get used to a smaller and smaller group of players that buy things on the AH.  I don't think this is necessarily a bad thing since many have proven that while the cash cow of the AH (and thus other players) is nice it isn't a must have and it is possible for players to get the builds they want in time.

 

Another possible cause to throw into the mix could also be that players have enough alts around now that they start to remove enhancements from toons less played thus not needing to purchase those items again for a new toon.  There is a lot of overlap with sets and it seems logical that some may decide it is easier to snag those pieces off another character they rarely if ever play.

[Ukase]

22 hours ago, Yomo Kimyata said:

 

I agree completely, which is another reason I continue to take profits now rather than later.  Some factors I see/anticipate:

 

1.  Overall gradually declining player base. 

2.  Existing player base making new alts at a declining rate.

3.  More people "making their own" rather than buying retail.

4.  More people doing challenges that don't rely on high cost builds.

5.  People periodically liquidating their stashes.

 

Then again, I've been calling for the sky to fall for a while now, so what do I know?

As to point 1...is this just your perception? Or some other data? 
Point 2...I believe there's a thread somewhere that lists the "flavor of the month" and other stats. I suppose I could investigate to see if there's anything to this claim. 

Point 3...honestly, I figure folks are less likely to do this. 
Point 4...I dunno,  I wouldn't think the Ironman type stuff is that prevalent. But what do I know? 
Point 5..I think folks always do this. Just depends on the stash. 

Well, opinions will vary, lol. 

[Yomo Kimyata]

Well, I haven’t been tracking average population, and HC hasn’t released a population update for quite some time, so my thoughts on 1. are mainly anecdotal.  What I can tell you is that periodically I track certain commodities and lock down the market to see how many come in/leave the market per day. This is how I come up with estimates about how many new alts are being created per day, and that estimate is about half of what it was a year ago.  It’s not a perfect system, but it jibes with what I’m seeing volume-wise.

[Siouxsie]

I'm pretty sure (1) and (2) are the primary factors.  While the others could play a role, I'd wager half my funds they are an order of magnitude less and a blip in the grand scheme of things.  For every one of us that likes to play in the market, there are dozens that just want to buy an IO and get on with punching things.

[Without_Pause]

RE: Self-found

 

It is more interesting than a challenge depending on the restrictions one puts into place. Once those are in place, then it becomes easy to set one's expectations. Self-found can be rather easy to do based on farming and converters. Case on point, old school CoH had people slotting SOs at 22. One could simply make a farmer and stop XP at 25, and run them so they can at a minimum fill out any builds with level 25 uncommons and end up with a decent build to level for any of their characters. Add in a way to make them attuned, and it is a mere matter of time before one would have everything they need for a leveling build. I would almost do this, but the uncommon market is on life support at best as I can grab even attack set recipes for all of 5k. Once a player had attuned rares to pass around, uncommons fall by the way side.

 

It took about a week, but I IOed my main based on playing the market. They didn't do a single mission during that time. I used resources from other characters, but that's about it. Build included Winter IOs and ATOs, etc. Likely do a slow burn on the market to build back up, but it might be awhile before I move onto the next one. I have three done, and likely take another break after the next two. Once any 50 gets done, I'll likely barely use the market to get stuff and just sell off whatever.