Yomo Kimyata
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Posts posted by Yomo Kimyata
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First off:
1. An alt cannot buy or sell to itself.
2. An alt CAN buy or sell to another alt under the same global.
I’m curious what people’s experiences are when buying and selling the same thing on an alt.
Ive noticed that when I am bidding and offering the same thing, when my bid is lower than my offer, things seem to operate as you would expect. Example: bidding 255 on common salvage via luck charms; offering @ 305 via luck charms. I make buys and sells as they come in.
I’ve also noticed some wonky behavior when I am bidding (usually at the highest outstanding level) and when I am offering at a LOWER price. Example: bidding 155 on luck charms, offering @1. What I see is delays in the process, and what looks like alternating periods where the system first considers my bids, then considers my offers. I’ll often go for 30 seconds before making a sale, even though there are thousands of bids. I THINK this may be due to the fact that the system won’t let me make any sales while I am still the best bidder and that the only sales I do make are to other people who are bidding higher than I am.
Does anyone have any thoughts or anecdotal evidence?
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I’ve got one to about lvl 12 that’s gone pure solo so far. I’ve already gone up to +1/x3 and bosses solo. Bosses are the only thing I bother using the Poison DeBuffs for, since damage is strong for this level.
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The way I see it, this game, as is, was enough for people to keep playing it in secret with a base of a few thousand people for, what, 7-8 years? I admit I do still treat it like it could go away tomorrow, but if it does, I’m not sure if it would be due to not enough population.
if populations DID drop drastically from the current level, and I was not able to occasionally team or get pleasure from the AH, I might drop my playing time.
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I think fungibility, as much as anything else, contributes to this. No individual baskets for salvage, recipes, set IOs! Converters are a very close second, and may take first if I really think about it.
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On 8/1/2019 at 3:48 PM, dasefex said:
Prices have been steady. Seems like the best time to sell is the weekends.
I agree with the second part, but my observation is that crafted IOs, with the exception of things like LOTG proc and Miracle proc, are lower to significantly lower.
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21 hours ago, ajax34i said:
To make a profit, make sure you "guess" your price range correctly, because every time you cancel and re-list, you lose the AH fee (150k-250k). That may not seem like much, but if it costs you 3 million to make it, and you sell for 4, your "profit" is 1 million, and losing 250k in fees means you've just lost a quarter of your profit.
Don't forget the sales fee as well as the posting fee. Together they sum to 10% of your sales price. So if it costs you 3mm to make it and you sell it for 4mm, you pay 400k total in fees and your profit is only 600k. Which makes your point on posting fees even more salient!
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16 minutes ago, GavinRuneblade said:
On live you could get a team to help you start any TF then they leave and you solo it.
Solo ITFs were kind of popular for a while, and soloing the Recluse / Statesman TFs were something permadoms liked to brag about.
Yeah, on Live I would do this all the time. But I didn't stick with Live until sunset so I was wondering if the original devs ever allowed solo TFs or if this is purely a Homecoming thing.
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Well, it's August 1. How do you feel prices have changed over the last month or so, if at all, and where do you see them going by, say, the day after Labor Day (September 3)?
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39 minutes ago, cyvert said:
Im not sure you could dent the flow of converters very well. Last friday I attempted to buy all of them and flip them for 1 inf to clear out all the bids. I started with 28k sales and 28k bids. I bought enough to drop it down to 16k for sale and 16k bids. I stopped because i couldnt keep pace with the flow of new converters to the market, I wasnt denting the amount on the market fast enough to see the converters for sale drop in quantity any more. By the time I logged off for the night it was back up to 20k for sale and down to 12k bids. Yesterday they were up to 36k for sale and 10k bids.
It would likely take 2-5 of us on a weeke day to clear everything out but I dont think it would last very long.
Huh, I bought about ten thousand of them this weekend too. I'd love to say that I lifted a lot of really expensive offers, but all my bids were in the 85k-95k , so I probably have you to thank for much of that.
There are definitely better sellers than buyers, and I think there will be so long as it's one of the best ways to monetize merits. Like I've said early and often, converters are a really strange commodity, where people are dying to sell them to make inf, and people are dying to buy them to make even more inf.
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1 hour ago, SlimPickens said:
Is buying converters with merits the established best practice for maximizing merit spend? I suppose it is, because even the winter IOs at 100 a piece would only get you around 20 mil per merit while converters would be 30 mil for 100 merits. I ask because i have a bunch of winter IOs i need and merits to spend, but if just buying the converters and selling is more worthwhile I guess thats the way to go and buy the IOs from the market.
That seems to be conventional wisdom, but I’d take it with a grain of salt. If you were able to sell 300 converters at 100k a pop, you’d net 27mm which should buy you any winter o you want more or less, and leave you change in most cases.
You might find it difficult to sell at that level though. Most trades seem to be in the 90-95 k range, which nets you less. Maybe enough to buy your winter o, maybe not.
if I needed winter os and I had the merits, I would probably buy them directly with merits rather than buy converters, sell them for inf, and buy the winter o with the proceeds. I don’t think the cost savings would be significant versus the convenience of doing it in one step. UNLESS you feel that you are particularly good at buying and selling things in the AH.
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27 minutes ago, wjrasmussen said:
Cheaper than 3 converters per merit?
Here’s the thing. There are a few ways to get converters, and different people are going to have a competitive advantage in earning one over the other.
Unless I am missing something, there are four methods of gaining converters:
1. Random drop from mob kill
2. Convert merits at 3 converters/ merit
3. Buy it in the AH. We’ve been using 100k as the benchmark.
4. Random drop from Hero/Villain/Winter pack.
(if I’m missing things, PLEASE point it out to me. I’m not too proud to learn something.)
Focusing on 2 and 3. Some people will find it easier/faster to gain 100 merits, and some people will find it easier/faster to gain 30mm inf. For me and my constraints, the inf route is faster and more consistent with my play style.
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3 hours ago, justicebeliever said:
Curiousity...what's low enough? I have never spent more than 95K on converters (need it now!!!!!), and 90% of the time I am spending 90K (I can wait a few hours).
I've had bids sitting around for 89K, but I've yet to see those ever fill...
My 85k bids fill every couple of days, but most of the time I'm like you in the 90-95 range with exactly the same time urgency.
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1 hour ago, Shinobu said:
Anyway, one of the interesting things here is that all sets go to 50 (the two Uncommon and two Rare), but most start at level 20. Air Burst starts at level 10. This is curious because if you have a level 10 Air Burst, you can't do a category conversion on it because there's nothing else in Targeted AoE that can be level 10. This is an issue I've run into with attuned IOs, because even though they have no specific level, they do know what is the lowest and highest level the normal version of that attuned IO can be, and Attuned IOs will go by lowest possible level when you are attempting to convert them. So you can do a category conversion (Targeted AoE) on an attuned Detonation and get a Positron's Blast, an Annihilation, or an Air Burst. But you can't convert an attuned Air Burst to anything else by category, just like you can't convert a level 10 Air Burst by category.
Huh, I didn’t realize that about attuned. I guess I assumed that the system would convert it into ANYTHING in the range. Thanks for figuring that out and sharing it with us!
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I’m assuming cyvert and Myrmidon are talking about using merits to buy “free” converters. Feel free to play however you want, but if your goal is to accumulate inf, those converters are not, in fact free. There is an opportunity cost, which we are shortcut valuing in this post at 100k per converter. Or one merit per in-set roll. You could choose to convert your merits to converters and sell them. Or you could choose to convert your merits to converters and use them to convert. Or do what I do and sit on your merits since I convert everything to Inf anyway. (I don’t monetize my merits as of this time. I don’t need to.)
If if you choose to value converters you get from merits as free, but you value converters you buy in the AH as worth 100k, you are going to make some economically unsound decisions.
But this is a game, and you can play as you want!
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1 hour ago, Myrmidon said:
What would be the cost of 14 level 20 Miracle Procs on the market? They were between 65 and 70 million the last time I checked.
Sounds about right. You could probably buy 14 at that level pretty quickly and you could probably sell at that level overnight. Of course, you would have to post at less than 5mm.
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If you are playing rare roulette, keep in mind there are plenty of crafted rares you can buy cheaply on the AH to use as an initial seed. You can't necessarily produce 50 of them at a time, as you can with crafting and converting common recipes, but in many cases you can get them for a song and cheaper than it would cost to craft one.
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On 7/22/2019 at 10:39 PM, kelly Rocket said:
10 H&V packs is 100 million inf.
13 ATOs should average to 104 million.
That doesn't sound like a great RoI to me.
Especially when if I spent 100 million on craft & convert I'd expect 300-400 million after selling the results.
I'm not a user of the packs myself. I'm a fan of other people using them -- it takes inf out of the system and it replaces it with tradeable goods, both of which fit my notions of "what is good for the economy."
As an investment scheme though, I will say that one thing it has going for it is scale. I agree with your ROI estimates, but investing 100mm in craft is, what, a few hundred IOs? That's a lot of clicking and dragging and time spent. And what if you wanted to invest 1bn in crafting? A few thousand IOs is a lot of work.
If, IF, someone felt they had a reasonable chance to make a decent return after fees, it scales up to size. Investing 1bn in H&V might get you between 100-150 ATOs, which is manageable. But I'd target 50% after fees and I don't think it's anywhere near that.
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With respect to Squidnunc's specific example, you can set up a rule-based strategy.
Let's say you own one of the crap pieces and you can sell it for 1mm right now to net 900,000. You say to yourself, well, how about I convert it once and sell whatever I end up with. So you have an 80% chance of ending up with a crap piece that will net you 900,000, and a 20% chance of ending up with a good piece that will net you 4,500,000. Either way, you are out 300,000 in conversion fees. So, you will end up with either 600,000 or 4,200,000 but on average your expected return is 1,320,000. That is better than your initial case of 900,000, so over the long run, on average that is a good investment. However, 80% of the time you will be worse off than if you just sold the crap piece in the first place. So you have higher reward (my expected return is 1,320,000 rather than 900,000) but higher risk (4 out of 5 times, I'm going to lose money). If you did this a million times, with a million IOs, you would expect the distribution to work out in your favor. But if you did this ten times, you could easily lose money every single time. That's risk. In general, a higher expected return goes hand in hand with the higher risk that you will actually lose money
You can extend this to say, I'll convert up to two times and sell whatever I get, or five times, or fifty times. I'll leave that up to you to calculate.
What you should not do, however, is say I'll convert until I get the good piece, by hell or high water. Your potential losses are infinite, since you could keep rolling that 80% until the sun goes dim, or you run out of converters or inf or patience.
This, of course, applies to Squidnunc's really simple model. Making that decision for something like an IO is much much much more complicated.
Look at Steadfast Protection Res/End: last 5: 3mm, 4mm, 5mm, 5mm, 4mm
Steadfast Protection Res/Def: last 5: 6mm, 6mm, 6mm, 6mm, 6mm
Steadfast Protection Knockback: last 5: 4mm, 4mm, 4mm, 4mm, 4mm
That's what the market says as of right now. Let's say I own the Res/End. Should I sell it or convert it?
At what price do I post it and at what level do I expect it to sell, and when do I expect it to sell? You should ask yourself that question for each piece. And those are big questions and not easy questions. Let's make a really big jump and assume I can absolutely sell the Res/End at 3mm, the Res/Def at 6mm, and the Knockback at 4mm. That nets me 2.7mm, 5.4mm and 3.6mm respectively. If I don't convert, I get 2.7mm. If I do spend 300k to convert, and sell whatever I get, I will get 5.1mm half the time and 3.3mm half the time for an average of 4.2mm. With expected profit of 1.5mm, That looks like a good trade to me. And if I could buy the Res/End at less than 3.3mm, I would at least break even every time.
But what if I can sell the Res/End at 5mm, netting 4.5mm? I'd be losing money! Or what if I can't absolutely sell whatever I convert it to at 6mm or 4mm? Or any of a thousand other questions. Not to mention that 1.5mm is equivalent to farming your 50 for about 30 seconds or whatever the influence rate is.
And this is probably as easy as it's going to get. In real life, for real money, there would be computers modelling this out. But I'm not going to do the math for every situation, and neither should you. I look at the math of the broad picture, make some gut decisions, and follow a set of rules that may adapt over time.
So it depends. But I always convert the Steadfast Protection Res/End.
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It also really helps if you have an idea of how it has tended to trade over the last few weeks. One of my rules is KNOW WHAT YOU TRADE AND TRADE WHAT YOU KNOW.
If the last 5 are all 2mm and it's a LOTG proc, you don't want to be listing at 1.5mm. And if it's a Scirocco's Dervish triple, you don't want to be listing at 2.5mm.
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I usually price to sell it soon(tm). If all previous sales are at 2mm, I really don't have enough information. But I would probably post between 1mm and 2mm and hope to sell it before the end of my gaming session. I'm sorry I can't be more specific than that, but it really feels like an art rather than a science.
If last 5 were 2mm, 2mm, 2.6mm, 3mm, 3mm, and I knew nothing else about the item? I'd probably post between 2mm and 2.75mm.
Things to look at are: how many are for sale; are all last 5 trades from today; is this an item I personally find useful; etc., etc.
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Short answer: it depends.
Long answer: iiiiiiiiiiiiiiittttttttttttt dddddddddddeeeeeeeepppppppppeeeeeeennnnnnnnddddddddssssssss.
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On 7/24/2019 at 7:05 AM, Herotu said:
The solution to this is to change the recipes so they don't use rare salvage.
I don’t see this as a problem that needs a solution, but alternatively, if rare salvage prices were to drop, it would be economical to craft rates directly again.
The only reason I’ve bought rare salvage in the past two months is to craft purples. I’m having a hard time justifying the demand side of the equation. I’d short the market if I could.
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I had a fun concept and started a new alt. I read how Poison is unliked, and I don’t know if I’ve read word one in Mind Control.
If you were going to take Mind/Poison to 50 and beyond, what would you focus on?
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1 hour ago, 2D_Jungle said:
So...why does this still work? I just joined Homecoming, but it seems like this info has been out there for months. Who's still buying these "valuable" set pieces when everyone knows you can build/convert them for a fraction of the price?
Short answer: convenience and desire and the lack thereof.
If you NEED inf, there are many, many ways to go about it. The simplest way being play your high level characters.
Some people prefer farming, etc. Some people just don't care to learn about it, or don't like using the AH.
And in the marketplace, the convenience of buying (or selling) it now rather than crafting something else and converting and attuning is worth a lot to some people.
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