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Yomo Kimyata

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Posts posted by Yomo Kimyata

    Predictions and Prognostications

    in The Market

    Posted

    You can definitely sell between two characters on the same account.  But generally I will bid at the low end for an attuned on the character who needs the item and offer at the high end with the character who has the non-attuned.  Generally I’m able to cross the trade within an hour (overnight at the worst) at a decent-to-very-decent profit.

    Predictions and Prognostications

    in The Market

    Posted

    I predict that over the next month, we will see two secular trends.  One:  people will spend more time on their 50s, either doing incarnate stuff, or farming.  Two:  people will become more aware how the market works.

     

    The first trend leads to a lot of influence generated, but also a lot of uncommon/rare supply generated.  I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that mid-range things like rare enhancements will drop in value, while truly limited resource items like purples will increase in price.

     

     

    I predict that prices on most items will rise slightly as more people will have money to spend and learn how to use the market and converters.

     

    However, the most expensive items (purples, ATOs, WinterOs) will go down in price as their supply will increase.

     

    So kind of the opposite of this!

    Zero to 100 Million in a Week

    in The Market

    Posted

    ...they were selling at those prices last weekend. 

     

    I think the market is cooling off noticeably.  Starting two days ago, I saw the "magic" starting recipes (guaranteed to flip directly into rare) skyrocket in price.  Since then, my sales have slowed.  A few of my asking prices look too high now, and many others in the 2M range that would have been quick sellers at the end of last week are sitting around.  Many IOs show ~100 offers and ~20 bids.

     

    It looks like more and more suppliers have caught on (or read this thread).

     

    The very top-priced sellers (for our purposes, not purples, PvPs, etc) are holding their value pretty well.  There may be an avenue for the more aggressive crafters-- those willing to gamble more and more converters to get that Miracle +Recovery or Luck of the Gambler.  Not sure if I'll be in the market over the next couple of days or just keeping an eye on it.  Don't want to wind up on a streetcorner selling converters out of a cup for a penny each.

     

    Some of that is going to be weekday v. weekend effect.

     

    I also feel that over the long term, prices on almost everything are going to go down.

    Zero to 100 Million in a Week

    in The Market

    Posted

     

     

    Barely related question:  What does everyone here do with rare salvage now?  Just sell it for as much as you can?  Do you still craft 50IOs out of it for your own use?

     

    Rare salvage I would usually sell, unless you want to trade it.  I "rarely" need it and when I do, I know I can buy it in bulk.

    Zero to 100 Million in a Week

    in The Market

    Posted

    Yeah. There seem to be huge inflation spikes during the weekend. I was buying "Brass" for about 500 each ... a few minutes later the search shows that the last few "Brass" went for 10.000 inf. So I tried and listed some of mine for 9,500 inf and they sold immediately. An hour later they were back at 770 inf each.

     

    This sounds like a bug.  I believe that the 10mm seeded common salvage are listed at 5,000 each, so you should not have been able to sell brass at 9,500 until all the seeded common salvage have been bought.  Which is something I dream about.

    Zero to 100 Million in a Week

    in The Market

    Posted

    Thanks for all the contributions in this thread.  I've been lurking along all week and trying to get the hang of this.  But like a 90s Learn to Line Dance video, I've had to keep pausing and rewinding and peeking back at this screen.  :D

     

    I've been modestly successful.  Here are two questions and observations from my side.

     

    1.  Is 5M inf kind of the gold standard of sell prices we're looking for here?  Like, if I get a 5M, my work is done, if not I need to look at what my current IO is selling for and do a little risk/reward on further conversions?

     

    2.  I tried an (expensive) experiment in the confuse sets today.  I found a L50 Perplex uncommon recipe that require no rare components.  I did a 50 in hopes of getting a category conversion into a purple (1 out of 3 sets in confuse that go to L50.)  I think I did 8 category conversions and it kept flipping back and forth between Perplex and Malaise's Illusions.  Are the purples locked out of category flipping?

     

    3.  Shinobu, if you get a Miracle, do you always power through to a +Recovery?  If I'm mathing good, it seems like a about a 30% chance to whiff in 5 tries trying to get a +R.  I figure that at a cost of (15 converters x 100K) = 1.5 Million.  How much premium on the sell price of the +R do you want to see?  May or may not be asking because I have a Miracle in my inventory.  RIGHT NOW.

     

    Cheers, everyone.

     

    That's three questions...

     

    One of my crafting toons, Ditch Digger (he digs ditches), has a very simple approach.  It may not be as efficient as a lot of niches, and it can be very random, but it's profitable and easily replicated if you want to try it.

     

    He buys cheap lvl 30 yellow recipes and crafts them.  Call that cost 50,000 inf. 

     

    He converts by uncommon until he gets a good category (usually one conversion) or a good enhancement.  Once he gets a good category, he converts by category until he gets a salable rare.  In a few cases he will then convert by set until he gets what he wants (like a karma def/end into a knockback).  I would say on average, that's 3-7 enhancement converters, sometimes more.  Let's call all-in-cost on average somewhere in the 500k range.

     

    For your question 1, I will usually target anything that will sell QUICKLY in the 1-2mm range.  The travel stealths are a good example of high turnover that I can make sales at over 1mm within a few minutes.  I don't bother with melee rares anymore, since you may be able to get 1-2mm for one, but it may take a long time.

     

    2. Shinobu covered it.

     

    3. It depends on my mood at the time.  Usually I will convert it to the +recovery, but not if the +recovery is selling for under 5mm at the time.  It also depends on how many converters I have on hand.  I always try to buy those at a discount (hey, he digs ditches, remember?) so if my bids haven't come through I'll put whatever I have on the market.

    Zero to 100 Million in a Week

    in The Market

    Posted

     

     

    This whole exercise looks fun, I might try this out and see how long it takes to go from 0-100 million.  Always interesting to see how people choose to marketeer.  I think I might be able to do it in a few hours if I can bootstrap effectively in the beginning. 

     

    I've moved to flipping purples recently.  Its way slower inf per real time, but extremely fast inf per time spent marketeering.  It means I've kind of lost track of the more active market niches though,  I'll be interested to see if the niches I used to get the bankroll for purple flipping still work.

     

    As for converters, it is nice to be able to make them with merits, but I was making 50-100 million inf per hour actively marketeering, and that chewed through a lot of converters.  I would have to be pulling 160-320 merits/hour to match the speed I was making inf, so I found it much more effective to purchase the converters as needed.  I'm not very good at speed running things, so the market remains far and away the fastest source of wealth for me.

     

    If you are going for a speed run, there are three blocks to look out for.

     

    1.  Building up initial capital from scratch.  I figure you need a few million to start, unless you spend merits for the converters.  This is where the 5 merits from Atlas exploration badges comes in handy.  You can certainly grab those merits and therefore 15 converters faster than you can build 1.5mm from zero.

     

    2. Selling product quickly.  If you are in a high demand time, then you are probably all right, but anecdotally I don't see very many, if any, low patient bids.  If you offer your ToD triple at 5 inf to hit the outstanding bid, you very well may lose money on the trade.  I rarely hit bids, so this may be less of a problem than I think, but there aren't many quality bids and very little depth on the bid side.  So you need to rely on buyers coming to lift your cheap offer, which will affect how quickly you sell.

     

    3. Acquiring supply.  This is probably not a big deal at all, but I thought I'd mention it for completion's sake.  It's relatively trivial to pick up yellow recipe fodder over time with good outstanding bids, but there may not be a lot of supply available waiting in the market at the exact time you are looking for it.  That is partly my fault.  Sorry.

    Zero to 100 Million in a Week

    in The Market

    Posted

    You're gonna blow this out of the water!

     

    The only speed bump you might run into is waiting for buyers to come in.  One thing I've noticed about the enhancement market is that there are very few "low and patient" bids.  People are rolling in inf and want to buy when they want to buy, and as a seller you have no control over that.

    Zero to 100 Million in a Week

    in The Market

    Posted

     

    Early morning update before work:  my IO finally sold (it hadn't when I went to bed).  I've also bought 30 recipes so I can start crafting and converting in earnest, but for now I'm limited by the fact that I haven't earned more merits for converters (although I probably could buy from the market by now if I wanted to).

     

    In any case I crafted two of my recipes and, after a few conversions, I have another stealth IO and a Kinetic Combat IO to sell.  Tonight I'll have to join a Posi TF or do something else to earn more merits.

     

    This is what I'm trying to get my head around with respect to the market for enhancement converters.  Let's say for the sake of argument that they trade at 100,000 each.  I understand that many/most people feel that they are the most efficient way to convert merits into influence, so each merit translates to three enhancement converters to 300,000 inf.

     

    At the same time, I can spend 1mm influence to buy a merit, or to buy ten enhancement converters in the market.

     

    I call this "The Curious Case of Enhancement Converters."  I totally get the bid/offer spread, but frankly I have a hard time with the idea of converting merits into enhancement converters.  It seems like a real waste of merits, but at the same time I may have nothing better to spend merits on.  I know that if I want ten enhancement converters, I can raise 1mm in the AH a lot faster than I can earn 3-4 merits.

     

    So I believe that enhancement converters are both wildly underpriced and wildly overpriced at the same time.  I know I will always be willing to buy them, and I know that hundreds/thousands of people will be willing to sell them.  I expect that sellers will gradually outnumber buyers, but who knows.

     

    I do know, however, that I refuse to flip them.  I haven't observed a bid enough gap in bid/offer, and the dynamics certainly feel that sellers are more motivated than buyers.

     

    my two inf

    Mace, axe, broadsword

    in Scrapper

    Posted

    I’ve never tried axe, but I’ll echo what is said here re: broadsword and war mace.  I love broadsword.  It’s my main and it was my main back in the good old days.  But it definitely underperforms war mace in just about every way.

    Zero to 100 Million in a Week

    in The Market

    Posted

    Great start!  You'll get there in no time.

     

    I like to see other people's strategies.  Every time I start a new toon I go through Outbreak, level to 2, kill one Hellion for the posting fee, and sell my two large inspirations.  That gets me the seed money to start flipping to get my first 5-10mm.  That might take a half hour, or overnight, but it's generally always there!

    When someone bids, is the seller picked randomly?

    in The Market

    Posted

    I believe that if there are multiple equivalents then the sales are random.  Example:  I put up a handful of offers of common salvage at 5.  I find that I’ll sell one or two from each block of ten rather than the first ten selling first, etc.

     

    This is in respect to what happens when there are TIES in bids or offers across characters or accounts.  And I'm changing my statement to "I'm not sure" based on my experience with common salvage.

     

    Often I'll have lots and lots of bids out at a low level that happens to be the highest outstanding bid, so when someone comes in to dump salvage, I'll have the best bid.  On a single character, I've noticed that bids get filled in what seems to be a random fashion.  A few here, a few there.  When I use the same bid across characters, I notice that sometimes one toon's bids fill entirely while another's don't.  That may be a timing issue or an observational error though.

     

    On the sell side, I will frequently dump large amounts of common salvage at 1 inf.  Since that, by definition, is the lowest outstanding bid and guaranteed to be at or below any outstanding bid, I would expect them to sell instantly or close to it.  However, sometimes the system doesn't process my offers instantly, and I'll often wait 10-15 seconds between sales, despite the fact that there are plenty of outstanding bids.  I am guessing that is because there is at least one other person selling at 1 inf at the same time, and that the system is somehow allocating our offers in a manner that neither seems random nor in order of when the order was placed.

     

    It's curious.

    New Char Start-up Process

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    1.  Enter Outbreak.  Change mouse settings.  Add two power bars.  Drag temporary powers onto power bar.  Hit Sprint and finish up the tutorial.  Exit to Atlas.  Level and drag Rest to the right spot.

     

    2.  Kill one Hellion for the inf.  Type “/ah”.  Post my inspirations at 1 inf each.

     

    3.  Take proceeds and trade them to 5-10mm.

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