Winter Event and the impact on Winter-Os

[Saikochoro]

I have been going back and forth on whether I want to buy some winter packs or not.  I hardly ever use WOs in my builds (I have maybe two sets across my 80+ alts slotted). So, the only reason I’d do it is for profit. 
 

I suspect many more people will buy packs this year and thus the supply of WOs will likely be inflated for quite a while.  So, making a good quick profit off the WOs is unlikely.  Reward merits are always good, but that is largely up to chance.

 

If I am patient I could always list the WOs or the packs themselves in 6-8 months to make a large profit. But at that point, I could invest 100-200m in my normal marketing routine to make a large profit this week instead of in 6-8 months. 
 

There is a possibility that the WOs could still retain a high value, but I think that is unlikely. So, since I don’t use WOs myself, and don’t want to wait months to reap the profit, I will likely not join in on the fun. 
 

But who knows, maybe I’ll buy 5 just for fun. 

Edited December 1, 2020 by Saikochoro

[Sakai]

I do not think I have ever slotted a WIO myself.  The ones I got from last years sale are still sitting in my email so I think I will be sitting this out but good luck to all of you. 

[Ukase]

So, a friend asked me if I thought the price of converters would go up. She seemed to think so, as she sold 1500 of them at 92k over night. 

I don't think so. Someone may sell them a little higher..and get lucky, but I think with all these packs being opened, some folks will want to recoup their investment, and converters are fairly quick and easy. So I think the price will drop. But, anything can happen. 

I'm sure many of us have more than enough winter-Os for our alts to last a year, at least. I wonder when the prices of the winters will go back to "normal". 

 

[Yomo Kimyata]

7 hours ago, Ukase said:

So, a friend asked me if I thought the price of converters would go up. She seemed to think so, as she sold 1500 of them at 92k over night. 

I don't think so. Someone may sell them a little higher..and get lucky, but I think with all these packs being opened, some folks will want to recoup their investment, and converters are fairly quick and easy. So I think the price will drop. But, anything can happen. 

I'm sure many of us have more than enough winter-Os for our alts to last a year, at least. I wonder when the prices of the winters will go back to "normal". 

 

I dropped my buy-it-soon(tm) bids for converters.  There is a veritable glut of merits.

[Yomo Kimyata]

I'm still deciding what I want to do with respect to Winter Packs.  One day in, and almost 40k packs have been sold (and a small number relisted), which is more than a pack per active account according to March 2020 numbers.  

 

@Ukase's other thread is giving a good sample of what one should expect from bulk purchases.  My first observation is that there are a lot of potential merits out there, which nowadays translates to a lot of converters, etc..  I've lowered my bid prices as I said above, but we'll see it I end up buying there.  My second observation is that WO prices seem to have quickly stabilized to around 8mm, more or less.  Like it or not, the lion's share of the value in a Winter Pack are the WOs.  Personally, I don't use them very often and when I do it's Avalanche.

 

Some people have posted about how it may not be worth their time to invest in Winter Packs and profit in a few months when they can make inf right away, and they have a point, but it's like marketing before and after you go farming -- why not do both?  I am not, however, convinced that there will be unbridled demand for WOs in six months, and I still have my Character Items inventory chock full of all kinds of things that I can pull out and use anytime I want to, even mid-mission.  That's a valid reason in and of itself to open a few hundred packs -- to have a ready inventory of things like unslotters and catalysts that all your characters can access without having to email it to yourself.

 

Yesterday, I bought 100 packs for the pure reason that I wanted to try and clean out any remaining high bids in the WOs (and I was far from the first mover there) and I made a nice profit on the WOs alone.  But I think I'll wait until towards the end of the Winter Event before deciding to invest in more packs in bulk.

[Glacier Peak]

Recommend folks read this drop spread formula from Faultline in the other thread:

 

Edited December 2, 2020 by Glacier Peak