Current thoughts on the market

[professor06]

On 6/20/2024 at 7:06 AM, brasilgringo said:

There definitely seems to be some been market "manipulation" of PVP recipes across the board for last 4+ weeks with someone(s) bidding across all PVP recipes -- literally every recipe in the PVP sets -- in blocks steadily driving up the prices (3MM, 3.2MM, 3.5MM, 3.6MM, 3.7MM+).  When these bids would run out over night the prices would drop back down before the bidder comes back and puts them all back in across all recipes.  Not sure what they're doing with all the recipes, as crafted IO pricing hasn't moved much.

PvP me at Wentworths, im getting tired of upping my bids.  I might start buying and crafting at a loss here soon just for shirts and goggles.

[UltraAlt]

5 hours ago, professor06 said:

PvP me at Wentworths

 

I'm always PvPing you at Wentworths ... and everyone else as well.

 

[Ghost]

3 hours ago, UltraAlt said:

 

I'm always PvPing you at Wentworths ... and everyone else as well.

 

I’m undefeated at WWPvP

[Andreah]

On 9/15/2024 at 6:51 AM, Ghost said:

I’m undefeated at WWPvP

Half the people in this thread have been taking everyone to the cleaners and they don't even know it. :D

[Yomo Kimyata]

3 hours ago, Andreah said:

Half the people in this thread have been taking everyone to the cleaners and they don't even know it. 😄

 

I think that market PvP is really interesting, partly because I always think I'm winning, and I'll bet many of my counterparties think the same thing...

[lemming]

Just now, Yomo Kimyata said:

I think that market PvP is really interesting, partly because I always think I'm winning, and I'll bet many of my counterparties think the same thing...

Is it PvP if we don't care? I've been getting less and less focused in getting the most profit.   Noticed that when I outfitted a couple characters in a reckless manner, and I'm still richer than when I started them.

[JKCarrier]

26 minutes ago, lemming said:

Is it PvP if we don't care?

As long as both parties are satisfied with the outcome of the transaction, it's a win-win. I'm happy to pay extra to get that Performance Shifter proc *right now*. Yes, I could get it for cheaper if I was willing to wait, but why bother? Inf practically rains down from the sky. What else am I going to do with it?

[Yomo Kimyata]

57 minutes ago, lemming said:

Is it PvP if we don't care? I've been getting less and less focused in getting the most profit.   Noticed that when I outfitted a couple characters in a reckless manner, and I'm still richer than when I started them.

 

Personally, I don't think of Market PvP(lol) as buyer v. seller, but rather buyer v. buyer or seller v. seller.  I think if you don't care then it's just plain P.

[lemming]

6 minutes ago, Yomo Kimyata said:

Personally, I don't think of Market PvP(lol) as buyer v. seller, but rather buyer v. buyer or seller v. seller.  I think if you don't care then it's just plain P.

That makes sense.

[UltraAlt]

20 hours ago, Yomo Kimyata said:

I think that market PvP is really interesting, partly because I always think I'm winning

 

I think that "winning" in market PvP means different things to different people.

 

19 hours ago, JKCarrier said:

What else am I going to do with it?

 

You could give it away like Yomo and who knows who else in a less publicized manner.

 

19 hours ago, Yomo Kimyata said:

Personally, I don't think of Market PvP(lol) as buyer v. seller, but rather buyer v. buyer or seller v. seller.

 

It is still all PvP unless DEV market-seeding gets thrown into the mix.

Players sell. Players buy.

And then there are the other things related to that ....

[Ukase]

On 6/20/2024 at 7:06 AM, brasilgringo said:

There definitely seems to be some been market "manipulation" of PVP recipes across the board for last 4+ weeks with someone(s) bidding across all PVP recipes -- literally every recipe in the PVP sets -- in blocks steadily driving up the prices (3MM, 3.2MM, 3.5MM, 3.6MM, 3.7MM+).  When these bids would run out over night the prices would drop back down before the bidder comes back and puts them all back in across all recipes.  Not sure what they're doing with all the recipes, as crafted IO pricing hasn't moved much.

I see two ways to approach this. Wait for the player's higher bids to fill, swoop in with your lower bids and do what you do. Less volume, but more profit. 

But think about this: 
Whomever this is - and it's probably me - they must be making some kind of inf off it, or they wouldn't do it. Here's a breakdown of how they might be looking at it: 

 

This data is old, by the way. The math no longer checks out. 
The converters number in B3 assumes a cost of 65K. Converters are a bit cheaper now with patient bidding at 60K each. 
The salvage value assumes 500k for a rare, 2k for uncommon and 300 for the common (at 100 each) 

Generally speaking, bidding higher reduces profit by a noticeable amount. Like, if you get the recipe at 2M, you can add direct to the bottom line. 

If you are in this space, like this other player - what seems to be happening is (presumably) you bid your 2.3m price. The other player may have been there before you at 2.2M. You really don't know. They check to see what they have - and they have nothing because you (or someone else) outbid them. What would you expect them to do? Log off and give up? There's too much profit for one player to expect to keep it for themselves. So, they saw your bid for 2.3 and bid 2.32 or something like that. Maybe a third or 4th person bid 2.4. After all, why not? There's a fair amount of demand for these IOs. 

In essence, all the marketers drive the crafting cost up to where only folks with big stacks can afford to take the risks. This could be called a "squeeze" where they drive the bid up to the point where you've got to either use your brain storm ideas, or your reward merits to subtract from the costs. But even that is opportunity cost. You could have just sold the converters and rare salvage from the BS ideas (don't ya just love that abbreviation, lol) and saved yourself a lot of tedium. Might not make as much, but you'd make it faster - maybe. 

One thing is clear - if you don't want to pay more than 4-5M for a pvp recipe, that's not your pond anymore. You'll have to swim somewhere else. 

And one thing that is not clear - be careful! At any time, another player or 20 could just dump all their pvp IOs for 1 inf and be quite okay with all of Yomo's noob traps, making everyone's efforts fairly worthless...until their supply runs out. As efficient as I expect some of the better marketers to be, if they chose to do something like that, it could be many days. 

Man, I'm sharing too much. Maybe the servers are back up! 

[Azari]

On 3/30/2024 at 12:58 PM, macskull said:

I have a few thousand PAs sitting around between a few characters. I've never bought anything more than the 10 PA costumes with them, but I've also never sold any of them. I'm just lazy.

I still want to get that undefined costume on some character... just because I never see anyone actually use it