Current thoughts on the market

[Ukase]

I've been thinking about the market for some time, mainly since I stepped back from doing anything market related, with this voice in my head saying, "Dude, you have enough inf to make a great build for each character you might make if you filled all the available character slots." 

But, I didn't get that much influence by torturing myself. I got it because in many ways, the market is more interesting than some of the content available. 

As items on the market are getting cheaper, it just means I have even more disposable influence than I had before. At least, for now. 
And if things get more expensive, I'll adapt and make more. 

But, there's something concerning me with a small part of the market - prismatics. 

Have you guys ever actually spent the prismatics to make a mini-version of your character? 
Since last Halloween, when the ToTing was going on, and everyone was getting 10 prismatics per character, and when Scrapyard was being clobbered a lot, and prismatics would drop randomly during story arcs, I have been stockpiling these since I bought a bunch for 100M just to get some badges
Looking at their current price, 3M each seems like chump change. A mini-me requires 250 prismatics. So, 750M if you don't have any. Again, chump change for most of us. (unless we had to repeatedly buy them for each character - that could add up, but I still think I can outpace that, if properly motivated.) 
I got to thinking - GMs are dropping Monstrous Aethers. We need 3 of them to make one prismatic, if that's even what folks are doing with them. To me, it seems like the price has stabled, for now, but I am wondering how many of these are going to routinely hit the market each day. 

20? 50? It can't be that many. 2000 people playing, I don't know the drop rate, but I thought it was around .02%, not to be confused with 2 percent. It could be where I read it - that person was confused about representing a percentage with a decimal point. Not real sure. But unless the folks who are running the hard mode TFs are listing theirs, I just don't think there will be a lot of these - because - wait for it- people like the mini-me "costumes". Mine is a hoot, especially uppercut. His little arm doesn't even reach their chin - it's like a bad wrestling match! 

I looked just before the emergency maintenance. I think it was about 2700 of them available. I was fortunate; I didn't need to buy any. 
But, I see this as a section of the market to keep under observation. I would expect the price of these to rise a bit, closer to 5m if things stay the same. 

I no longer see the 1500 number on Excelsior. It's barely breaking 1K when I look to see. I think we're going to see some prices go up some tiny percentage - maybe 5-10%  in the short to mid-run, over the next 3 to 6 months. Summer is coming for most of us, so that should mean people are spending more time outside, and less time playing. The only thing that might suppress this is Yomo, or others like Yomo,  liquidating their inventory. 
I could certainly be wrong, and I hope I am. 

[macskull]

I have a few thousand PAs sitting around between a few characters. I've never bought anything more than the 10 PA costumes with them, but I've also never sold any of them. I'm just lazy.

[lemming]

18 hours ago, Ukase said:

Have you guys ever actually spent the prismatics to make a mini-version of your character? 

I don't know the drop rate, but I thought it was around .02%, not to be confused with 2 percent. It could be where I read it - that person was confused about representing a percentage with a decimal point. Not real sure.

1) I have three of my characters with a mini and one that has a few other things going on.  None bought, all collected.

2) That was one of my theories, but without looking at the code, it's just a guess.

 

750m is probably not chump change for most.  Heck, while I could afford that, I don't wanna.  

[Lunar Ronin]

I have no interest in any of the prismatic aether costumes.  I actually kind of find them annoying - seeing other people dressed as mobs, and some of the newer ones like the various mechs look incredibly janky in indoor maps.  I personally don't like playing with people who use them.  It's immersion breaking.  But I realize I'm probably an extreme outlier.

 

Any aethers I get go up on the black market, so that should help a little, although I don't do any advanced mode TFs/SFs anymore.

Edited March 30 by Lunar Ronin

[Andreah]

I think it's inevitable that we undergo price deflation steadily. Our ability to produce goods like the better IO's and etc. exceeds most people's appetites for additional alts or the number of new players who might join the game. Furthermore, since having high net-worth is also a end-game goal for more than a few people, both in stockpiling goods and in raw, never to be spent inf, supply will always rise and demand will continue to decline. That's a recipe for price drops. It's not a bad thing, but it's a different thing, and people may need to adjust.

 

A way to correct this would have to include worthwhile recurring cost sinks for inf accessible to many players, or some sort of means to make it necessary to replace slotted enhancements, such as "gear damage" (which no one would want, me included!).

[tidge]

On 3/29/2024 at 6:40 PM, Ukase said:

But, there's something concerning me with a small part of the market - prismatics. 

Have you guys ever actually spent the prismatics to make a mini-version of your character?

 

I know I have a mini-mode for one character... and maybe on another... but that was for specific costume reasons that fit the character concepts. I don't enjoy how the collision box/map navigation works for mini-mode, so it is not a high priority for me.

 

I have alternate prismatic costumes for several characters, mostly for concept reasons.... and a little bit for nostalgia, because on Live I would occasionally try to make characters look like enemy critters.

 

[Ironblade]

On 3/29/2024 at 6:40 PM, Ukase said:

Have you guys ever actually spent the prismatics to make a mini-version of your character?

Yes.  Ironblade has the mini character, enough costumes to get the badges plus 5-6 more.  Currently, he has about 700 prismatic aether that I'm not sure what to do with.  I have not purchased any.

 

 

On 3/29/2024 at 6:40 PM, Ukase said:

Looking at their current price, 3M each seems like chump change. A mini-me requires 250 prismatics. So, 750M if you don't have any. Again, chump change for most of us.

When you say "most of us", I'm guessing you mean the players who frequent the Market forum.  Because that sure as hell ain't chump change for the average player.

 

 

On 3/29/2024 at 6:40 PM, Ukase said:

I don't know the drop rate, but I thought it was around .02%, not to be confused with 2 percent.

Are you talking about the Monstrous Aether?  As I recall, there is no 'drop rate', per se.  Giant monsters each drop a fixed number of MA (different for different monsters) and there is no percentage chance involved and no other way to get them.  Prismatics have a 2% chance to drop upon completing a mission.

 

I do recall ONE drop rate that is a fraction of 1% and that would be the odds of getting the Hamidon Bud vanity pet from killing a bud.

[Ukase]

8 hours ago, Ironblade said:

When you say "most of us", I'm guessing you mean the players who frequent the Market forum.  Because that sure as hell ain't chump change for the average player.

 

Yes, for the folks that frequent the market forum. 
 

 

8 hours ago, Ironblade said:

Are you talking about the Monstrous Aether? 

No, I'm talking about the prismatic. 

[TheSpiritFox]

Mini mode on one character, one of the premium effects on two characters, a smattering of costumes and pets. My main has the 100 PA cataphract costume, all told spent a little over 1k PAs so far. Bought most of them off of people in large numbers, farmed up about 250 during the Scrapyard farm days. Its faster to farm up influence to buy PAs than PAs

 

[hejtmane]

I think there is a bulk seller who is undermining the market listing all his stuff for 500k or a 1M oh wait that is me trying to collapse the market. Sorry it is my evil alter ego and he has taken over his master plan is to crash the economy of Atlas Park . That way it is cheaper and easier to bribe government officials to look the other way.

 

Signed Dr Detroit

Edited May 15 by hejtmane

[Sanguinesun]

1. Prismatics pretty much if sold at the market going rate instantly sell.  The price consistently has been going down year after year since its inception.  It will continue to drop in prices as time goes on.  There are just simply more ways now than ever to produce primsatics(especially because of the frequency of monsterous aether that people convert. 

 

2.  Remember the AH is a blind system for all servers connected.  That blind aspect to the system has helped obscure alot more than some actually realize.

 

3.  Summer seasonally may create an uptick in price demand but I doubt it currently.  And 1000% guaranteed once Halloween rolls around and people take all their alts over the last year to run through to get their guaranteed 10 aethers, well, that's going to see another downspike in prices too. 

 

4. Unless more popular items are introduced to cause prismatics to be more in demand to balance/imbalance things, sale prices of them on the AH will continue to drop.  I predict 1-1.5mil range by october at the current expected trends.

[Andreah]

6 hours ago, Sanguinesun said:

I predict 1-1.5mil range by october at the current expected trends.

Sounds about right.

[Ukase]

On 5/31/2024 at 2:25 PM, Sanguinesun said:

sale prices of them on the AH will continue to drop

Interesting conclusion. 
And it does sound about right. 

I'm on record somewhere suggesting that these will be selling for under 1M before it's all over. The only question is when. 

I do not foresee any new things to be acquired with the prismatic, but I'm not active on the closed beta server either - (whatever it's called - before it hits brainstorm) 

I do recall seeing someone in the forums out of sorts because they felt the cost on the AH for the prismatic was too high and they needed to cost less. So, perhaps downward prices are a good thing for everyone - except the folks who sell them. (which ain't me - I hoard those things like everything else) 

[Sanguinesun]

14 hours ago, Ukase said:

Interesting conclusion. 
And it does sound about right. 

I'm on record somewhere suggesting that these will be selling for under 1M before it's all over. The only question is when. 

I do not foresee any new things to be acquired with the prismatic, but I'm not active on the closed beta server either - (whatever it's called - before it hits brainstorm) 

I do recall seeing someone in the forums out of sorts because they felt the cost on the AH for the prismatic was too high and they needed to cost less. So, perhaps downward prices are a good thing for everyone - except the folks who sell them. (which ain't me - I hoard those things like everything else) 

 

 

Around the mapserve week in april, the price was around 3mil and in just 2 months its already dropped to 2.2-2.5, obviously activity generating more to be sold drives prices but also I think there's been a factor of people who have also been hoarding them have started to sell them, likely because either their expectations of use stopped or because they had speculated the would've remained better in value than they have.  Monsterous aether is actually much easier to consistently obtain for even the non 50+ crowd and since 3 convert to 1 prismatic, that is generating probably the most likely continued source of dropping the prices of them.

 

Also the blind auction system and people's tendency to list something for the lowest rate of the previous 5 sale prices also helps drive it down if volume out paces demand on an item like aethers do.   I always tell people, especially the new and returnee folks, to sell asap their aethers due to this trend as well(which feeds it really).

 

Quite frankly (and likely much to the chagrin of the person(s) who pushed for these currencies to be implemented) Im all for their prices dropping like a rock.

[Ukase]

Anyone beside me notice the strange sales of the pvp sector? 
I think it has something to do with the Advanced mode TFs - as Panacea, Shield Wall and Glad Armor sets share a common stat boost - +HP. 
The Glad Armor 5 piece gives 2.25%, as does a 3 piece of Shield Wall. The Panacea is a bit smaller, but also offers up some regen to go with it, not to mention the unique and it's goodness by itself. 

The supply seems to be less than 10 for more than a few of them. But they aren't selling instantly when offered cheaply. It has the look of a player who wants to "buy now!". 

What I can't make sense of is the player that is buying all the +HP/End Panaceas for 7.1M. 

Instant sales, those. I mean, it certainly seems like the same player, unless multiple people are offering the bid at the same odd number. What does one do with over 100 of these? 
I've done this myself before, just stashed the LotG 7.5% in my base, but I can use 5 of those at a time. Not just one, like the panacea unique. 
They don't seem to be relisting at a higher price. Eh, maybe they are just hoarding them. Fine by me. I'll keep selling. 

[Yomo Kimyata]

7 minutes ago, Ukase said:

What does one do with over 100 of these? 

 

Heh he HAHA MUHAHAHAHAHAH!

 

One adds them to the collection!!!

 

But anyway I have noticed a lot of small changes over the last few months.  I think the grand legitimizing brought back a lot of people who had either left with very full storage bins or are very comfortable with the crafting process.  Standard Invention IOs have generally dropped dramatically across the board, and there is a lot more selling pressure than buying pressure.  People seem to be much less willing to defend a market, so bid offer spreads are pretty much as high as I've seen them on a lot of goods.  Sellers seem to be more willing to put several hundred/thousand of something up for sale and just waiting.  ATOs and WOs seem to be good sellers.  PvP has some supply hiccups, and maybe that's people taking down stockpiles when the #offered gets low.  Purples have been gradually increasing in price and that's probably due to either one person or a small consortium, but that may be idle speculation on my part.  Converters have increased slightly in price.

[Sanguinesun]

3 hours ago, Yomo Kimyata said:

 

Heh he HAHA MUHAHAHAHAHAH!

 

One adds them to the collection!!!

 

But anyway I have noticed a lot of small changes over the last few months.  I think the grand legitimizing brought back a lot of people who had either left with very full storage bins or are very comfortable with the crafting process.  Standard Invention IOs have generally dropped dramatically across the board, and there is a lot more selling pressure than buying pressure.  People seem to be much less willing to defend a market, so bid offer spreads are pretty much as high as I've seen them on a lot of goods.  Sellers seem to be more willing to put several hundred/thousand of something up for sale and just waiting.  ATOs and WOs seem to be good sellers.  PvP has some supply hiccups, and maybe that's people taking down stockpiles when the #offered gets low.  Purples have been gradually increasing in price and that's probably due to either one person or a small consortium, but that may be idle speculation on my part.  Converters have increased slightly in price.

 

Prices for sets and standard IO's have been relatively the same ups and downs I've seen year on year with just some variations.  What I have seen is more folks learning how to use the market(and methods of making influence associated with it) as well has methods on how to procure recipes and a more steady pace outside of merit methods or post 50 farming. But again prices, outside of prismatics, have been within the same spectrum of ranges that I've seen for years.  As for pvp related ones,  PVP motivated reasons for purchases though is practically a non market as, quite frankly, due to it being an extremely small segment of the player base. And again, prices have remained relatively and contextually the same.   Enhancement converters have remained consistently for well over a year in the 57k-65k price range and it also depends on the time of day/day of the week and yes again the season as to the price ranges but those rate variations I see, up and down, daily.  

 

I treat the market like a daily and seasonal tide.  I've seen no compelling evidence of prices being drastically changed as I've said now multiple times for a very long time overall.

 

Remember the markets for all servers are linked and people play, from all over the world and at different times as also being an important factor.

[Yomo Kimyata]

10 minutes ago, Sanguinesun said:

Prices for sets and standard IO's have been relatively the same ups and downs I've seen year on year with just some variations.  What I have seen is more folks learning how to use the market(and methods of making influence associated with it) as well has methods on how to procure recipes and a more steady pace outside of merit methods or post 50 farming. But again prices, outside of prismatics, have been within the same spectrum of ranges that I've seen for years.  As for pvp related ones,  PVP motivated reasons for purchases though is practically a non market as, quite frankly, due to it being an extremely small segment of the player base. And again, prices have remained relatively and contextually the same.   Enhancement converters have remained consistently for well over a year in the 57k-65k price range and it also depends on the time of day/day of the week and yes again the season as to the price ranges but those rate variations I see, up and down, daily.  

 

I hear what you are saying, but I think you are being overly generous with your "no change!" beliefs.  Consistent price drops from 4mm to 2mm are indeed only 2mm lower, but are also a 50% drop.  I'm not saying where you can buy or sell one; I'm saying where you can buy or sell ten or fifty or a hundred.  I will give you a billion inf right now if you can show me a screenshot of your buying converters under 60k in the last three months.  Or of you selling LotG over 5mm consistently.  

 

And your comment on PvP recipes and enhancements as an extremely small segment of the player base?  I don't doubt that is your personal experience, but your own personal experience may not actually reflect what is going on, as I see it.

 

 

[Sanguinesun]

 

1 hour ago, Yomo Kimyata said:

 

I hear what you are saying, but I think you are being overly generous with your "no change!" beliefs.  Consistent price drops from 4mm to 2mm are indeed only 2mm lower, but are also a 50% drop.  I'm not saying where you can buy or sell one; I'm saying where you can buy or sell ten or fifty or a hundred.  I will give you a billion inf right now if you can show me a screenshot of your buying converters under 60k in the last three months.  Or of you selling LotG over 5mm consistently.  

 

And your comment on PvP recipes and enhancements as an extremely small segment of the player base?  I don't doubt that is your personal experience, but your own personal experience may not actually reflect what is going on, as I see it.

 

 

 

 

1. Im saying that over the last 2-3 years, the price changes being up and down have remained relatively the same(except for the consistent downward trend of prismatics.   Daily, weekly monthly and seasonaly.

 

2.  I never said in my original statement that the recipes/enhancements are an extremely small segment of the player base.  That's a strange sentence you've created there.

 

I said, "PVP motivated reasons for purchases though is practically a non market as, quite frankly, due to it being an extremely small segment of the player base."  It being pvp player based motivations, ie that pvpers comprise of a very small segment of the player base.  This has been the case for a very long time on HC to the point that HC devs allowed isntant 50's for pvp zones and still people beg(one guy on excelsior I've seen even tries to bribe when I've popped on there(as recent as yesterday).

 

Reasons pvp sets get purchased more often are due to, as you partially pointed out, procs, but its also related to set bonuses(non pvp wise before you make an erroneous assumption otherwise) primarily but other reasons as well.  

 

3. I've seen yes, as recent as in the last 2 weeks Converters going for 57k in the last 5 sales listed.  Begging off for me to show you such a screen shot I'll try to catch but Im not going to obviously sit there and do so (I've billions myself so its not really a need but next time I see such, I'll try to grab a screenie for you.  Obviously I cannot give you a screen shot from months ago as I've not been in the habit/need to take screen shots of such for some sort of challenge presented purposes. 😛

 

As for prices for LotG prices, again, it, like converters and much all else on the market goes up and down.  I never in my statements said prices are consistent in that 1 fixed price remains constant. That'd be inane for any of us who observe/use the market regularly to make such a statement. What attempted to have you understand was that the market remains relatively consistent in the ebb and flow of it.  That the -spectrum- of prices depending on items' day week season etc contexts. 

 

4. Your personal observations as you point out with your retort regarding mine as well are quite simply, yes personal observations for either of us.  Perhaps another way of putting this is if I listed 100 enhancements from sets crafted today for an hour n change effort (no not from flipping or post 50 farming, or merit redeeming mind you either...), that I would not see a difference in the revenue earned from it that would mirror your worried observations.  I'll likely not do 100 today though since I did about 50+ on Monday :P.  

 

 

Edited June 11 by Sanguinesun

[Yomo Kimyata]

2 hours ago, Sanguinesun said:

As for pvp related ones,  PVP motivated reasons for purchases though is practically a non market as, quite frankly, due to it being an extremely small segment of the player base.

 

I read this as you saying that PvP recipes/enhancements were practically non-existent, since your parallel in the previous sentences was about prices, so I made the valid assumption that by "pvp related ones" you meant pvp recipes and enhancements.

34 minutes ago, Sanguinesun said:

3. I've seen yes, as recent as in the last 2 weeks Converters going for 57k in the last 5 sales listed. 

 

Unpossible, and I'll up my offer to 10bn.

 

 

[Ukase]

On 6/11/2024 at 1:17 PM, Sanguinesun said:

how to procure recipes

So this is a topic that caught my eye. I have never used merits to buy a recipe. And never will. It will never be worth it to me. 

I have sort of used AE tickets to buy recipes, but only when I had all but very rare and pvp recipes set to be rejected for a badge. So odd to spend 60 tickets on a recipe, not get the recipe and get badge credit, but that certainly sped up the process. 

There was a time when I'd run a couple of asteroid maps for tickets, get some random recipe rolls, then run the asteroid map with standard rewards to get the salvage to craft them. But I just think standard rewards gives better drops with less effort, as well as the salvage needed to craft them. 

Currently, I get my recipes two ways - from afk farming, and from actively playing.

Other than using tickets for random rolls, and the aforementioned farming and playing, if there are other ways, I am unaware of them. 

[Ukase]

On 6/11/2024 at 1:36 PM, Yomo Kimyata said:

Or of you selling LotG over 5mm consistently.  

This is what I usually see. I remember when I was irritated they weren't selling at 7m, now I'm happy to get 5m. 

 

Mind you - there is one outlier - a lowballer for 4.8. But, I'll take it, lol. 

Edited June 17 by Ukase

[tidge]

I have not seen converters at 57K for a while.

 

As for PvP pieces... I can describe my own (increased) interest in some of them, relating to the game changes: (At least) two PvP sets provide a 3-point KB protection bonus for using only three pieces (Gladiator's Armor, Fury of the Gladiator)... with FREEM! now part of the game, I find those two bonuses to be extremely helpful in getting characters to 10/14 points of KB protection just through slotting choices. (14 isn't enough for FREEM! but with a SG base buff, it is). Those sets also tend to offer enhancement of values that characters would want anyway. The PVP pieces (and also Winter) tend to be the ones that have an Accuracy+Endurance components, which I like for franken-slotting attacks.

 

I can speculate that with more players, more have become more attuned (pun kinda intended) to the value of old no-brainer pieces (Panacea, Gladiator's Armor, etc.) as well as the value of boosting, and possibly even franken-slotting powers.

 

Personally? I use (recycled) PVP pieces along with ATO when leveling up. For the final builds, it is mostly Purples, then PVP for certain types of powers, and then Winters get considered.

[Ukase]

Regarding the pvp sector - with the increased interest in the advanced mode tfs, there are a number of players who are recommending Max HP. The Shield Wall 3 piece gives a 2.25% HP increase, which by itself hardly sounds worth it, but as the marginal gains are added, they will add up. 

I think that's where some of the increased pvp IO demand is coming from. 

[brasilgringo]

There definitely seems to be some been market "manipulation" of PVP recipes across the board for last 4+ weeks with someone(s) bidding across all PVP recipes -- literally every recipe in the PVP sets -- in blocks steadily driving up the prices (3MM, 3.2MM, 3.5MM, 3.6MM, 3.7MM+).  When these bids would run out over night the prices would drop back down before the bidder comes back and puts them all back in across all recipes.  Not sure what they're doing with all the recipes, as crafted IO pricing hasn't moved much.

Edited June 20 by brasilgringo