Finally! Winter Packs.

[Benefactor]

During the 2019 Winter Event, I decided to try my luck at flipping Winter Packs.  I bought 1900 pieces, kept 400 for myself, and planned to sell off 1500.  I kept a reserve of 10 billion inf, well, because I get nervous.  I was really stressing over this, thinking of all the inf I could lose if things didn’t go as planned.  After the packs went back to the normal price of 25 million, I posted all 1400 packs at 24,999,999 each, and they all sold within days.  I should have used all of my inf, but oh well, I now had some pocket change and a decent stash of packs.

Fast forward to 2020.  I was going all in.  Every bit of inf I could squeeze out of my characters.  And because of COVID I was able to grind out another 10 billion inf in about a month AFK farming while I worked.  By the time the event ended I had purchased 7641 Winter Packs.  I had less than 1 million inf to my name.  I was afraid I’d have to grind out some inf just for the listing fees.

I knew there’d be a lot of people doing what I was doing this time, so I planned to be patient.  I watched the prices bounce around – 12 million, 14 million, 12 million, 14 million, 12, 12, 13, 12, 16, 20!  It took many months to see a steady price around 20 million.  At this point I listed a few pieces at 24,999,999, and waited.  And no go.  So I continued to watch.  20 million, 20 million, 18, 20, 22, 22, 20, 24, 25! (quickly looked to see if I scored, which I didn’t), and then it settled around 18 to 20 million.  Now I’m sweating.  We’re starting to hit the summer months.  I hated to drop my minimum price, but I didn’t know if I’d ever sell off at close to what I wanted to.  When things got a little closer to 25 million, I started to list things at 24,501,111, and waited.  And during the back half of July, I made my first sale!  Boy was this going to be a long process.  One down, 7140 to go.  I planned on keeping 500 packs.

Finally sales were brisk.  Some weeks were more productive than others.  I had to create 30 new characters just to hold all the new inf.  I made some mistakes, and lost several hundred million inf by collecting all inf at once from the market instead of one line at a time.  I was a little frustrated to learn that it was last one in, first one out when it came to how things were selling.  I was hoping some of my older listings would sell first.  I also had to pull the ones listed for 24,999,999, and relist.  Things were going so well I even listed 300 of the 500 I was going to keep, figuring I would buy them back in December at the cheaper price.  Today I sold my last pack.  And it is done!

I invested in over 76 billion, and made around !67 billion after listing fees.  This is just a ball-park as some pieces did sell for 25 million, but I would say I averaged around 24.6.  I will never do this again.  Not to this extent.  I don’t think I will.  Who knows?  I might get the itch as we get closer.  But for now I plan to buy about 500 packs to keep and enough packs to cover the cost of those, selling target around 15 million.  It’s hard to know what the trend will be this next year.  I don’t know how server population/activity will impact things.  I just don’t want to stress again 😊.  A big thank you to everyone who contributed to my little project.

What are your plans this Winter Event?

[Yomo Kimyata]

Nice!  Well done!

 

I had a much smaller footprint this year than last, but probably made a much bigger profit.  I ended up buying 1,000 packs, and 2-3 thousand assorted WOs somewhere in the 4-9mm range.

 

Once WOs started moving to 20mm+, I started to liquidate.  Sometimes I sold them as is; most of the time I would convert from a bad set (Entomb) to a better set (Avalanche) based on how I saw demand and flow.  I would check in on my WO alt once or twice a week and sell off 50-100 at a time.  Sometimes there were odd price spikes, so I would front load WOs while it lasted.  And I always monitored the lowball bid levels, and probably picked up an additional few thousand WOs at or under 10mm which got flipped or converted and flipped.  Then I started digging into my Winter Packs.  I would also monitor the Pack price, and if it was significantly below what I could expect to sell 1.2 WOs for (average) less fees, I'd pick up more.  Lots more.  I flattened out on inventory right around the first of July.

 

And then, then I started to have a real need for large numbers of converters across all my alts.  So I ended up buying a lot of the ones you listed at 24,501,111.  Hundreds if not thousands.  I figured that at worst, I broke even on the cost of the packs by selling the WOs, and everything else in the packs (the merits were what I really wanted in the Character Items) was gravy.  A few weeks ago, I noticed that demand for WOs seems to have tapered off from the levels that interest me, so I stopped monitoring it except once a week or so.

 

It's difficult to say how much profit I made from WOs in total this year.  North of 50bn and south of 100bn is probably a good guess -- probably on the lower part of the range.

 

I'm astonished at how much inf gets thrown at these things!  And come the event this winter, I'll probably complain again about how no one can make any money if everyone is doing it, and then I'll do the same thing again...

[wjrasmussen]

4 hours ago, Benefactor said:

During the 2019 Winter Event, I decided to try my luck at flipping Winter Packs.  I bought 1900 pieces, kept 400 for myself, and planned to sell off 1500.  I kept a reserve of 10 billion inf, well, because I get nervous.  I was really stressing over this, thinking of all the inf I could lose if things didn’t go as planned.  After the packs went back to the normal price of 25 million, I posted all 1400 packs at 24,999,999 each, and they all sold within days.  I should have used all of my inf, but oh well, I now had some pocket change and a decent stash of packs.

Fast forward to 2020.  I was going all in.  Every bit of inf I could squeeze out of my characters.  And because of COVID I was able to grind out another 10 billion inf in about a month AFK farming while I worked.  By the time the event ended I had purchased 7641 Winter Packs.  I had less than 1 million inf to my name.  I was afraid I’d have to grind out some inf just for the listing fees.

I knew there’d be a lot of people doing what I was doing this time, so I planned to be patient.  I watched the prices bounce around – 12 million, 14 million, 12 million, 14 million, 12, 12, 13, 12, 16, 20!  It took many months to see a steady price around 20 million.  At this point I listed a few pieces at 24,999,999, and waited.  And no go.  So I continued to watch.  20 million, 20 million, 18, 20, 22, 22, 20, 24, 25! (quickly looked to see if I scored, which I didn’t), and then it settled around 18 to 20 million.  Now I’m sweating.  We’re starting to hit the summer months.  I hated to drop my minimum price, but I didn’t know if I’d ever sell off at close to what I wanted to.  When things got a little closer to 25 million, I started to list things at 24,501,111, and waited.  And during the back half of July, I made my first sale!  Boy was this going to be a long process.  One down, 7140 to go.  I planned on keeping 500 packs.

Finally sales were brisk.  Some weeks were more productive than others.  I had to create 30 new characters just to hold all the new inf.  I made some mistakes, and lost several hundred million inf by collecting all inf at once from the market instead of one line at a time.  I was a little frustrated to learn that it was last one in, first one out when it came to how things were selling.  I was hoping some of my older listings would sell first.  I also had to pull the ones listed for 24,999,999, and relist.  Things were going so well I even listed 300 of the 500 I was going to keep, figuring I would buy them back in December at the cheaper price.  Today I sold my last pack.  And it is done!

I invested in over 76 billion, and made around !67 billion after listing fees.  This is just a ball-park as some pieces did sell for 25 million, but I would say I averaged around 24.6.  I will never do this again.  Not to this extent.  I don’t think I will.  Who knows?  I might get the itch as we get closer.  But for now I plan to buy about 500 packs to keep and enough packs to cover the cost of those, selling target around 15 million.  It’s hard to know what the trend will be this next year.  I don’t know how server population/activity will impact things.  I just don’t want to stress again 😊.  A big thank you to everyone who contributed to my little project.

What are your plans this Winter Event?

I feel you as I bought 4 winter packs this year.  So we have similar experiences.

[Aeroprism]

Last december I bought about... errr I can't remember. 150 packs maybe?  Anyways, I opened them all, planned to sell the IOs, never did, they're all in my storage now.  

 

150 packs.  I thought I was a big shot.  Then I see your numbers.

 

Little shot.  

[Hedgefund]

On 9/3/2021 at 6:14 PM, Benefactor said:

During the 2019 Winter Event, I decided to try my luck at flipping Winter Packs.  I bought 1900 pieces, kept 400 for myself, and planned to sell off 1500.  I kept a reserve of 10 billion inf, well, because I get nervous.  I was really stressing over this, thinking of all the inf I could lose if things didn’t go as planned.  After the packs went back to the normal price of 25 million, I posted all 1400 packs at 24,999,999 each, and they all sold within days.  I should have used all of my inf, but oh well, I now had some pocket change and a decent stash of packs.

Fast forward to 2020.  I was going all in.  Every bit of inf I could squeeze out of my characters.  And because of COVID I was able to grind out another 10 billion inf in about a month AFK farming while I worked.  By the time the event ended I had purchased 7641 Winter Packs.  I had less than 1 million inf to my name.  I was afraid I’d have to grind out some inf just for the listing fees.

I knew there’d be a lot of people doing what I was doing this time, so I planned to be patient.  I watched the prices bounce around – 12 million, 14 million, 12 million, 14 million, 12, 12, 13, 12, 16, 20!  It took many months to see a steady price around 20 million.  At this point I listed a few pieces at 24,999,999, and waited.  And no go.  So I continued to watch.  20 million, 20 million, 18, 20, 22, 22, 20, 24, 25! (quickly looked to see if I scored, which I didn’t), and then it settled around 18 to 20 million.  Now I’m sweating.  We’re starting to hit the summer months.  I hated to drop my minimum price, but I didn’t know if I’d ever sell off at close to what I wanted to.  When things got a little closer to 25 million, I started to list things at 24,501,111, and waited.  And during the back half of July, I made my first sale!  Boy was this going to be a long process.  One down, 7140 to go.  I planned on keeping 500 packs.

Finally sales were brisk.  Some weeks were more productive than others.  I had to create 30 new characters just to hold all the new inf.  I made some mistakes, and lost several hundred million inf by collecting all inf at once from the market instead of one line at a time.  I was a little frustrated to learn that it was last one in, first one out when it came to how things were selling.  I was hoping some of my older listings would sell first.  I also had to pull the ones listed for 24,999,999, and relist.  Things were going so well I even listed 300 of the 500 I was going to keep, figuring I would buy them back in December at the cheaper price.  Today I sold my last pack.  And it is done!

I invested in over 76 billion, and made around !67 billion after listing fees.  This is just a ball-park as some pieces did sell for 25 million, but I would say I averaged around 24.6.  I will never do this again.  Not to this extent.  I don’t think I will.  Who knows?  I might get the itch as we get closer.  But for now I plan to buy about 500 packs to keep and enough packs to cover the cost of those, selling target around 15 million.  It’s hard to know what the trend will be this next year.  I don’t know how server population/activity will impact things.  I just don’t want to stress again 😊.  A big thank you to everyone who contributed to my little project.

What are your plans this Winter Event?

 

My tale is remarkably similar.  Similar enough that I suspect you've been the source of my agitation over the past few months, or at least a major player for it.

 

For both 2019 and 2020 I can't literally say I went "all in" but I set aside a small reserve and used all other liquidity to purchase the Winter Packs.  For 2019 it was weeks, maybe 2 months before I could list at 24,999,999 and once I did they flew off the shelf.

 

Watching the sales price inch up (slowly) this year I knew I'd have to list for lower.  I knew even if the cost peaked at 20 I could break them down and sell components, but yeesh, the time that would require... I really didn't want to do that.  Eventually when sales were consistently 24.5-25 I went in with a dollar cost averaging approach, just selling 50 at a time.  I was able to consistently sell at my *redacted* (and change) price until eventually, I couldn't.  That's where I figure you stepped in.  I didn't want to get into an underasking war so I just stepped aside to let whatever was happening happen.  It took like, 2 months then the ones I had for sell started to sell again.  Not "like hotcakes" but fairly consistently.  At this point I just have a handful (150ish?) and I'm fine with not ever being able to sell those (though I'm confident I will).  I've found Winter packs make a good "favor" currency.  For example someone constructed a base for me for some packs.  

 

For the next winter event?  I'm out.  I'll buy some, a significant number even but they'll be for use.  I've made my inf so I'm done with activities that are solely for the purpose of increasing inf.

Edited September 6, 2021 by Hedgefund

[iBot]

Same thing I did previous years.  I'll buy what I can at 10 mil and sell them at 24.5 mil later.  This year took a little longer to finally clear out everything I had but I'm patient so it didn't bother me.  Was also nice to log into an alt and check the AH only to see that the packs had sold and I was flush with some inf.  I didn't open any of them.

[Ukase]

Oh..winter packs. I still have a vast number left to open! 

I have yet to relist any winter packs. Ever. That's a waste of good inf. 

I get that you don't have to actually open the pack and you pocket 15M (assuming at 25M sale) less AH fees. 

But within the packs is a lot more influence than 25M. The reward merits, the boosters, converters, the catalysts, the unslotters, and the "average 1.2 winter-Os" and those wonderful amplifiers, candy canes....I place each pack at a value of 40M, easy. Why? 

Because of the wonderful people who never read these forums and genuinely have no idea how easy it is to make a winter-O superior. Despite Yomo's fantastic guides, an incredible help channel where there's a number of folks like me who will take an hour to explain to anyone that wants to know more about the accumulation of inf, they are still out there, overspending. 

Catalysts are essentially free to anyone who plays a level 50 character. And if you have a farmer, you'll likely amass hundreds of them in short order. Take the winter-O, catalyze and make 30M just for that one IO. Never mind the rest of the goodies within the packs. 

Don't sell yourselves short! 

[iBot]

But @Ukase I'm lazy.  Why oh why would I want to open up 1 pack to sell 10 things when I could just sell the 1 pack? ... 😜

 

Seriously though when you put it that way yeah it makes far better sense to open the darn things and sell the pieces.  But that interface is such a pain not to mention then having to comb through the emails to pick out what I want versus what I can sell.  I'll take my 13-14.5 mil profit and call it a day.  And of course I may contradict myself and actually open a few this year as I've got a couple of builds that I could improve with a WO or two.  I'll just calling it "evolving" my position rather than flip flopping. 🤪

[Benefactor]

I could not imagine opening over 7000 packs and trying to manage all the stuff that comes with it.  And what would I do with 100,000 brainstorms?

[Yomo Kimyata]

35 minutes ago, Benefactor said:

I could not imagine opening over 7000 packs and trying to manage all the stuff that comes with it.  And what would I do with 100,000 brainstorms?

 

Make about 2bn inf worth of rare salvage?  That's a pretty low inf/click strategy though.

[Ukase]

1 hour ago, Benefactor said:

I could not imagine opening over 7000 packs and trying to manage all the stuff that comes with it.  And what would I do with 100,000 brainstorms?

Oh me. Oh my. 
Forgive them, lord, they know not what they do. 

On a more serious tone, I get it with the brainstorm ideas. More clicking, right? First ya got to click each damn set of 20 into your inventory. Then you have to go to a crafting table and make the salvage at no cost. 

When you have the tons you have - you will get each salvage piece, several of them. You can avoid your fellow marketer's shenanigans and not over-pay for salvage for starters. 
Or, you can dump yours for sale cheaply, and still make over 500k per rare. That adds up! 

I should add - my strategy with brainstorms is far more about my attitude towards the market than profit. 

I was raised with this credo: "Every dollar you save multiplies to the bottom line." 

For every 4 rare salvage I don't have to buy, that's one damn IO I don't have to craft, convert and sell to get that 2m. And, best of all, those other marketers, essentially my competition, I suppose, I'm not putting any inf in their pockets, either. 

But that's just my old-curmudgeon way of looking at things, I suppose. 

Edited September 8, 2021 by Ukase