IT FINALLY HAPPENED!

[Marshal_General]

2 hours ago, SuggestorK said:

Not evreyone can be Obi-Wan 🙂 .

Nope, but I am sure the name Oh Big Juan is not taken.

[Hyperstrike]

3 hours ago, SuggestorK said:

Not everyone can be Obi-Wan 🙂 .

It takes careful, split-second timing...

[PLVRIZR]

On 1/28/2022 at 4:42 AM, Sovera said:

 

Last time I used it was when I got that, twice, in a row. What are the odds?

5% - every time

 

If you flip a (presumably balanced) coin 19 times and get heads what are the odds of getting heads on the 20th flip?

 

 

 

50%

 

 

 

Edited February 2, 2022 by PLVRIZR
reworded

[Nerio72]

Ah yes... The Chumbawamba Effect (nods sagely) 😎

Edited February 2, 2022 by Nerio72
Autocorrect needed corrected

[Sovera]

8 minutes ago, PLVRIZR said:

5% - every time

 

If you flip a (presumably balanced) coin 19 times and get heads what are the odds of getting heads on the 20th flip?

 

50%

 

But what are the odds of rolling 5% twice in a row? Some googling says it's a 3% chance of getting two 5% in a row.

[PLVRIZR]

While you can extrapolate statistics into frequencies, the base value of probabillity (one flip), will always be 50/50.  The coin doesn't care how many times it's flipped.  Each flip is unique.

 

If the probability of monkey is 5%, it will be 5%, every time you activate Secondary Mutation, regardless of how many times it happened in X activations.

 

 

Edited February 2, 2022 by PLVRIZR
added monkey example

[Sovera]

...yes, but I specifically said the odds of it happening twice in a row. The numbers would change if I said three times in a row. And then four times in a row. And yeah, happening twice in a row is definitely not 5%.

[PLVRIZR]

9 minutes ago, Sovera said:

...yes, but I specifically said the odds of it happening twice in a row. The numbers would change if I said three times in a row. And then four times in a row. And yeah, happening twice in a row is definitely not 5%.

Gotcha, yes.

 

If we're still talking about monkeys (5%), and my ancient statistics brain still works:  (1/20)^2 = 0.0025 or 0.25% 

 

Rare indeed.

[lemming]

BTW, if you get defeated while being a monkey, if you stand right back up before the power times out, you'll turn back into a monkey.