The RNG of converting

[Ukase]

Didn't want to post this until I'd sold what I'd made...never can tell how folks will respond when they see what someone is dabbling in. 

Ever have this kind of good fortune when converting? 

 

Three in a row. My challenge character is delighted. Delighted enough to dip back into the same recipe, and even raise the bid to get more because they all sold instantly for at least 2x the investment of materials and the opportunity cost of the converters. 

Some days, it pays to get up early. 

[Yomo Kimyata]

Witchcraft!

[Ukase]

It actually happened again - same recipe. 

Thinking about leaving this niche, as it became apparent someone was obviously flipping, as the last 30 or so have sold for the exact same price - and cheaper than the price I'd originally been getting of 4M, to just a dinky 2.5M. Still profitable, but I don't like to contribute folks who are just too lazy to craft their own loot. But, I thought ...you know, I'm still making inf, they're making inf - but my inf is faster. Theirs is slower. And if I keep pushing it - perhaps I end up filling all their bids - leaving them with a ton of miracles they'll have to unload at a higher price to recoup their investment...and then if I never leave the niche - they are a bit stuck. 

The silly thing is anyone that wants a miracle unique can just get one easily and far more cheaply by just doing what I'm doing. We share how to do it - and because it's fake money, they can't be bothered. 

[Yomo Kimyata]

Only a miracle can save him!

 

 

[lemming]

Every so often I'll get a perfect converter RNG, it's usually when I'm working with ATOs.   Other days, I'll want a easy convert in set and it will flip between the two enhancements I don't want.

[Yomo Kimyata]

1 hour ago, Ukase said:

It actually happened again - same recipe. 

 

It's worth noting the odds of this.

 

Now, we all* know that the odds of getting a Miracle proc from a non-proc Miracle are 1 in 5 at a cost of 3 converters, so it is logical to assume that the odds of getting three in a row is 1 in 125.  However, I'm working off the very good assumption that Ukase is not grouping these in sets of three, so given that the first is a proc the odds that the next two are also procs is a mere 1 in 25.  

[MonteCarla]

Yep, this kind of thing happens to me all the time. And it's perfectly balanced by those times where its takes 15 conversions to get the proc/special in a set that has a 1 in 5 chance. 🙂

 

Its like multiple lottery winners - we instinctively think that can't be possible to win big twice, but people do. 

 

Probability has no memory, and we humans have a really hard time in letting that idea go.

 

 

[Ukase]

13 hours ago, MonteCarla said:

And it's perfectly balanced by those times where its takes 15 conversions to get the proc/special in a set that has a 1 in 5 chance.

And you're 100% correct. I've had the RNG tell me to go kick rocks many times. I once spent 58 converters trying to get what I wanted. And it wasn't even to sell something, but to slot a proc! I just didn't want to give any of you my influence so you can use that to make things even harder for me to "wet my beak". (Godfather tribute)

I ended up making shy of 200 of those miracle's. Most of them sold for 2,500,000. 
Strangely, a few began to sell for 2,505,000. Or maybe it was 2,550,000. There was a 2nd 5 in there somewhere. I figured somebody wanted one and couldn't get in less than 2.5, so they had to bid creep. Not sure why they bought the odd few they did, instead of just one. But, didn't matter to me. 

My challenge character was delighted. The hitch was earning the merits to get the converters. I don't mind opportunity cost, but as mentioned, I don't like to put money in the AH - only taking it out is my goal. So, instead of buying the converters from the AH, I had it buy them from one of my hami corruptors that hold hundreds of Hero merits. And it paid the full 60K, not the patient lower price of 52,500. 

All said and done, I made about 125M. (paying an alt 90m for converters..gross. But it beats paying the market.) I'm sure there's much better opportunities, but for a level 12 brute, there's only so many merits you can earn, and I didn't want to wait for the more profitable recipe bids to be accepted. Soon, though. Soon. 

[MonteCarla]

At what point is it worth it to convert within a set?

I've been thinking about this during the week, as I chew through the 800 merits I had earned on a recent level 50, playing converter roulette with crafted commons.

 

If you have a set of 6, you have a 1 in 5 chance of getting the special thing, so it will take you 15 converters on average. Sometimes you'll get lucky, sometimes you'll get unlucky, but this average is exact.
If converters cost 50-60K each (ie you could just list them instead and get that), then that's 750,000 to 900,000.

So if the special item will sell for ~1 million more, then its better than break even for your time and clicking.
 
Examples:
Luck of the Gambler pieces sell for 4 million, Luck of the Gambler +Recharge sells for 5 million. I just sell the piece as is when I get a Def or Def/End or whatever.
Kismet +to Hit sells for 4 million, but the others sell for around 2 million, if that, so definitely convert them when you get one! And there's only 5, so the converter cost average is 12 instead of 15 making this even better.
 

The trickier question is - at what point do I give up? Say you're chasing that damage proc/special and you've failed on 15 tries. At that precise moment in time, the maths is exactly the same as when you started. You'll probably end up with a bum deal at the end, spending more in converters than the thing sells for. But the rational thing to do is try again, perhaps comforting yourself that one day you'll get the lucky three in a row.

[lemming]

I rarely convert to sell specific enhancements.

I'm usually converting to outfit a character.   So similar, but I tend to wind up just buying enhancements that are usually in the 2-4 million range, and for the more expensive to buy, I convert what I have on hand.  Usually that's the Very Rare, ATO, or PvP set items.    Sometimes during converter roulette, I'll get something that is worth more, so I wind up tossing that onto the market, but otherwise, I'll just keep converting.   (Or I'll put the more valued item to the side for another char)

 

Converting and getting the right one on X tries with a six enh set:

1. 20%
2. 36%
3. 49%
4. 59%
5. 67%
6. 74%
7. 79%
8. 84%
9. 87%
10. 90%

On when to quit trying, depends on the mood.    Sometimes I'll be stubborn, other days, I'll go off a beat up some mobs for a bit.

[Hedgefund]

On the rare occasion I'm chasing a specific piece within a set, I don't ever stop converting.  If anything, a long losing streak is fuel to see just how long the streak can last.

[Ukase]

13 hours ago, MonteCarla said:

At what point is it worth it to convert within a set?

There was a player I met in the Hive back when HC opened the doors called @Profit and that's where I got this preconception from. 
If the IO isn't cooperating by converting to what you want after 7 tries - stop. Find something else to do for a couple of minutes. Then return. 

There's nothing scientific about this. It's all perception bias. And like you, MC, I used to just slot the def or def/end and lose the extra million or whatever. 

Despite what many people say, I know that influence in this game is harder to make now through marketing than it was a couple of years ago. And each of us is to credit/blame for that, for revealing what goes on behind the curtain - even though we haven't shown all of it. There's so much competition in the various niches, that it's just harder. Sure, I can easily amass influence by marketing, but I'm not getting the margins I used to. 

It's wise of you to ask the question. When I do the PvP niche, with the shield walls and the panaceas, it's never worth it to me to spend converters looking for the procs. Other marketers and otherwise savvy customers are looking for the non-procs to convert into procs to save themselves a million inf or so. More in some cases. 

I sometimes found my pvp marketing character with 40-50 glad armor recipes. Spend 3 converters to pursue the proc...or convert out of set? 

It's just about a 30% chance converting out of the glad armor set. I could painstakingly go over the potential outcomes, but if you assume I want any of the panaceas and shield walls or any of the other "procs" of each set, the odds are getting any of those are better than 1/5. 

In summary, I think you have to the math for each time this question comes up. After a time, you kind of know what's the best play. 

Just anecdotally, I am recently inclined to not market. The margins aren't as good as they used to be. If I still were hungry for inf, I'd keep at it. But I'm not, so there's no real motivation to spend the time for the slim margins. Now, I'm sure there are some larger margins, and I think they're in the HO/D-Sync area. And that's why I'm trying to be a better player, to get in on that action. It's certainly bound to be more fun than clicking and converting ad nauseum.