The RNG of converting

[Ukase]

Didn't want to post this until I'd sold what I'd made...never can tell how folks will respond when they see what someone is dabbling in. 

Ever have this kind of good fortune when converting? 

 

Three in a row. My challenge character is delighted. Delighted enough to dip back into the same recipe, and even raise the bid to get more because they all sold instantly for at least 2x the investment of materials and the opportunity cost of the converters. 

Some days, it pays to get up early. 

[Yomo Kimyata]

Witchcraft!

[Ukase]

It actually happened again - same recipe. 

Thinking about leaving this niche, as it became apparent someone was obviously flipping, as the last 30 or so have sold for the exact same price - and cheaper than the price I'd originally been getting of 4M, to just a dinky 2.5M. Still profitable, but I don't like to contribute folks who are just too lazy to craft their own loot. But, I thought ...you know, I'm still making inf, they're making inf - but my inf is faster. Theirs is slower. And if I keep pushing it - perhaps I end up filling all their bids - leaving them with a ton of miracles they'll have to unload at a higher price to recoup their investment...and then if I never leave the niche - they are a bit stuck. 

The silly thing is anyone that wants a miracle unique can just get one easily and far more cheaply by just doing what I'm doing. We share how to do it - and because it's fake money, they can't be bothered. 

[Yomo Kimyata]

Only a miracle can save him!

 

 

[lemming]

Every so often I'll get a perfect converter RNG, it's usually when I'm working with ATOs.   Other days, I'll want a easy convert in set and it will flip between the two enhancements I don't want.

[Yomo Kimyata]

1 hour ago, Ukase said:

It actually happened again - same recipe. 

 

It's worth noting the odds of this.

 

Now, we all* know that the odds of getting a Miracle proc from a non-proc Miracle are 1 in 5 at a cost of 3 converters, so it is logical to assume that the odds of getting three in a row is 1 in 125.  However, I'm working off the very good assumption that Ukase is not grouping these in sets of three, so given that the first is a proc the odds that the next two are also procs is a mere 1 in 25.  

[MonteCarla]

Yep, this kind of thing happens to me all the time. And it's perfectly balanced by those times where its takes 15 conversions to get the proc/special in a set that has a 1 in 5 chance. 🙂

 

Its like multiple lottery winners - we instinctively think that can't be possible to win big twice, but people do. 

 

Probability has no memory, and we humans have a really hard time in letting that idea go.

 

 

[Ukase]

13 hours ago, MonteCarla said:

And it's perfectly balanced by those times where its takes 15 conversions to get the proc/special in a set that has a 1 in 5 chance.

And you're 100% correct. I've had the RNG tell me to go kick rocks many times. I once spent 58 converters trying to get what I wanted. And it wasn't even to sell something, but to slot a proc! I just didn't want to give any of you my influence so you can use that to make things even harder for me to "wet my beak". (Godfather tribute)

I ended up making shy of 200 of those miracle's. Most of them sold for 2,500,000. 
Strangely, a few began to sell for 2,505,000. Or maybe it was 2,550,000. There was a 2nd 5 in there somewhere. I figured somebody wanted one and couldn't get in less than 2.5, so they had to bid creep. Not sure why they bought the odd few they did, instead of just one. But, didn't matter to me. 

My challenge character was delighted. The hitch was earning the merits to get the converters. I don't mind opportunity cost, but as mentioned, I don't like to put money in the AH - only taking it out is my goal. So, instead of buying the converters from the AH, I had it buy them from one of my hami corruptors that hold hundreds of Hero merits. And it paid the full 60K, not the patient lower price of 52,500. 

All said and done, I made about 125M. (paying an alt 90m for converters..gross. But it beats paying the market.) I'm sure there's much better opportunities, but for a level 12 brute, there's only so many merits you can earn, and I didn't want to wait for the more profitable recipe bids to be accepted. Soon, though. Soon. 

[MonteCarla]

At what point is it worth it to convert within a set?

I've been thinking about this during the week, as I chew through the 800 merits I had earned on a recent level 50, playing converter roulette with crafted commons.

 

If you have a set of 6, you have a 1 in 5 chance of getting the special thing, so it will take you 15 converters on average. Sometimes you'll get lucky, sometimes you'll get unlucky, but this average is exact.
If converters cost 50-60K each (ie you could just list them instead and get that), then that's 750,000 to 900,000.

So if the special item will sell for ~1 million more, then its better than break even for your time and clicking.
 
Examples:
Luck of the Gambler pieces sell for 4 million, Luck of the Gambler +Recharge sells for 5 million. I just sell the piece as is when I get a Def or Def/End or whatever.
Kismet +to Hit sells for 4 million, but the others sell for around 2 million, if that, so definitely convert them when you get one! And there's only 5, so the converter cost average is 12 instead of 15 making this even better.
 

The trickier question is - at what point do I give up? Say you're chasing that damage proc/special and you've failed on 15 tries. At that precise moment in time, the maths is exactly the same as when you started. You'll probably end up with a bum deal at the end, spending more in converters than the thing sells for. But the rational thing to do is try again, perhaps comforting yourself that one day you'll get the lucky three in a row.

[lemming]

I rarely convert to sell specific enhancements.

I'm usually converting to outfit a character.   So similar, but I tend to wind up just buying enhancements that are usually in the 2-4 million range, and for the more expensive to buy, I convert what I have on hand.  Usually that's the Very Rare, ATO, or PvP set items.    Sometimes during converter roulette, I'll get something that is worth more, so I wind up tossing that onto the market, but otherwise, I'll just keep converting.   (Or I'll put the more valued item to the side for another char)

 

Converting and getting the right one on X tries with a six enh set:

1. 20%
2. 36%
3. 49%
4. 59%
5. 67%
6. 74%
7. 79%
8. 84%
9. 87%
10. 90%

On when to quit trying, depends on the mood.    Sometimes I'll be stubborn, other days, I'll go off a beat up some mobs for a bit.

[Hedgefund]

On the rare occasion I'm chasing a specific piece within a set, I don't ever stop converting.  If anything, a long losing streak is fuel to see just how long the streak can last.

[Ukase]

13 hours ago, MonteCarla said:

At what point is it worth it to convert within a set?

There was a player I met in the Hive back when HC opened the doors called @Profit and that's where I got this preconception from. 
If the IO isn't cooperating by converting to what you want after 7 tries - stop. Find something else to do for a couple of minutes. Then return. 

There's nothing scientific about this. It's all perception bias. And like you, MC, I used to just slot the def or def/end and lose the extra million or whatever. 

Despite what many people say, I know that influence in this game is harder to make now through marketing than it was a couple of years ago. And each of us is to credit/blame for that, for revealing what goes on behind the curtain - even though we haven't shown all of it. There's so much competition in the various niches, that it's just harder. Sure, I can easily amass influence by marketing, but I'm not getting the margins I used to. 

It's wise of you to ask the question. When I do the PvP niche, with the shield walls and the panaceas, it's never worth it to me to spend converters looking for the procs. Other marketers and otherwise savvy customers are looking for the non-procs to convert into procs to save themselves a million inf or so. More in some cases. 

I sometimes found my pvp marketing character with 40-50 glad armor recipes. Spend 3 converters to pursue the proc...or convert out of set? 

It's just about a 30% chance converting out of the glad armor set. I could painstakingly go over the potential outcomes, but if you assume I want any of the panaceas and shield walls or any of the other "procs" of each set, the odds are getting any of those are better than 1/5. 

In summary, I think you have to the math for each time this question comes up. After a time, you kind of know what's the best play. 

Just anecdotally, I am recently inclined to not market. The margins aren't as good as they used to be. If I still were hungry for inf, I'd keep at it. But I'm not, so there's no real motivation to spend the time for the slim margins. Now, I'm sure there are some larger margins, and I think they're in the HO/D-Sync area. And that's why I'm trying to be a better player, to get in on that action. It's certainly bound to be more fun than clicking and converting ad nauseum. 

[tidge]

On 9/6/2025 at 2:22 PM, Ukase said:

I sometimes found my pvp marketing character with 40-50 glad armor recipes. Spend 3 converters to pursue the proc...or convert out of set? 

 

Specific to level 50 PVP recipes, and further specific to the resistance Resistance and Defense sets... usually there are two other pieces (beyond the global) in those sets I want at level 50+5 for characters so I'll convert in-set for those. I hate using level 50 PVPs for the globals.

[Ukase]

42 minutes ago, tidge said:

I hate using level 50 PVPs for the globals.

If the rng gives them to me, I sometimes will swap them out with the level 10's my level 50's have slotted. They will still work if the level 50 exemps down. But yeah, I hear ya. 

[High_Beam]

I got a rock

[Andreah]

I guided an advanced AI through this thread, and it had these observations to offer. They have been double-checked by yet another AI in deep thinking mode, and passes my sniff-test as a retired professional computational statistician. It had trouble on the second table due to doing its own research to find current prices of pieces, which I believe it found by generally stale mentions in these forums. Formatting was at the AI's discretion.

 

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Deep Dive into Enhancement Conversion RNG: Math, Markets, and Maximizing Profits

I was directed to Ukase's thread on the wild RNG of converting (especially those sweet Miracle procs in LotG), and it got me down a rabbit hole of math and market analysis. Figured I'd summarize some key insights here—blending the thread's vibes with some probabilistic breakdowns and arbitrage thresholds. If you're grinding converters or flipping recipes, this might help turn those streaks into steady inf. 

The Core Math: Odds, Expectations, and Streaks

Conversions follow a geometric distribution due to the "no self-conversion" rule. For a set with K types (e.g., K=6 for LotG, K=5 for Kismet), starting from a random non-premium piece:

• Success Probability per Conversion: p=1/(K−1) (e.g., 1/5 for LotG).
• Expected Conversions per Candidate: E[N]=(K−1)^2/K (≈4.17 for LotG; 3.2 for Kismet).
• Lucky Run Odds (e.g., Ukase's 3-in-a-row first-try successes, assuming non-premium starts): p^3 = 1/125 (0.8%). Exact (including initial hits): 1/K^3=1/216.

For M candidates to get one premium:

• E[Ntotal]=[(K−1)/K]^M⋅(K−1) (drops to ~0.6 for M=10).
• Tail Risk (bad streaks): P(Ntotal≥10)≈0.09 for M=1, but rarer with more candidates.

 

K M E[Ntotal] P(Ntotal>E) P(Ntotal≥10) P(Ntotal≥20) 6 1 4.167 0.341 0.112 0.012 6 3 2.894 0.370 0.078 0.008 6 10 0.808 0.162 0.022 0.002 5 1 3.200 0.338 0.060 0.003

 

Bottom line: Streaks feel brutal (15 fails? ~3% chance), but EV favors persisting if costs < sale premium.

Profitable Arbitrage: Buy Low, Convert, Sell High

With a 10% AH fee on sales and C=60k per converter, the break-even buy price Umax⁡ for a non-premium recipe/base is 0.9P−(K−1)C, where P is the premium listing price. Buy below this for +EV.

Examples from thread prices:

 

 

Set	K	P	Umax⁡	Profitable U	Profit Potential
LotG (current undercut)	6	2.5M	1.95M	1.95M	~0.55M avg (at U=1.5M)
LotG (original)	6	4M	3.3M	3.3M	~1.3M avg (at U=1M)
Kismet (+ToHit)	5	4M	3.36M	3.36M	~0.8-1.8M (base ~2M)

 

Pro Tip: Only convert if P−B>1.11(K−1)C (vs. selling base B as-is). Thread's ~1M deltas crush this for premiums, but skip low-delta types like Def/End.

Thread Nuances: Beyond the Numbers

The discussion nails the human side—RNG isn't just math; it's tilt city:

• Psych Hacks: "7-try rule" for breaks (not scientific, but beats gambler's fallacy). Stubborn streaks? Curiosity kills the EV.
• Market Mayhem: Flippers tank P to 2.5M, but flooding with 200+ Miracles (Ukase's 125M haul) forces creep back up. Merit-buy converters at 60k equivalent avoids AH drain.
• Set Smarts: Kismet > LotG on EV (fewer types). PvP? Skip globals—farm cheap non-procs and self-convert (30%+ odds in Glad Armor).

Overall, conversions are a grindy goldmine if you treat it like a business: Bulk buys under Umax⁡, merit sourcing, and walk away from bad vibes. 

 

Cheers, AI-Market-Analyst

 

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Note: AI's used, Kimi-K2 and Grok 4 Heavy (expert mode)

Edited Saturday at 01:28 AM by Andreah

[Yomo Kimyata]

On 10/3/2025 at 9:27 PM, Andreah said:

I guided an advanced AI through this thread, and it had these observations to offer.

 

I've been noodling around on my Ultimate Enhancement Guide for years now, but I keep getting bogged down.  Partly due to the fact I want to avoid tables like the ones above.  At this point in my existence, I may be more artificial than intelligent, but it is interesting to see what an AI or two came up with.

 

 

[Andreah]

On 10/5/2025 at 1:31 PM, Yomo Kimyata said:

 

I've been noodling around on my Ultimate Enhancement Guide for years now, but I keep getting bogged down.  Partly due to the fact I want to avoid tables like the ones above.  At this point in my existence, I may be more artificial than intelligent, but it is interesting to see what an AI or two came up with.

 

It creates pretty good tables sometimes, but the format markups its good with aren't easy to put into the forums. If I were to export them to a spreadsheet, and then touch them up for posting, it might go better, but then I'm doing the grunt work I expect it to be able to do.