The Great ATO Sale

[Troyusrex]

Although I kept good notes on my last big ATO sale, I found myself wishing I had done more to track things in detail. So this morning I revised my process, bought 10 Billion worth of super packs (500 Heroes and Villains, 501 Rouges and Vigilantes) and put them on the market. The entire process took under 3 hours (I have streamlined the process a good bit). 

 

As usual, I put all 1,188 ATOs on the market for 8 million, except blaster and brute for 10 million. I went through the work to open super packs and get these on the market more for curiosity than profit (ok, and out of boredom...) but I do expect to net about 2.375 billion from it (so, 12.375 billion in sales from ATOs and all other items).

 

	7/25/2020
Blaster	110
Brute	103
Controller	71
Corruptor	101
Defender	81
Dominator	94
Kheldian	88
Mastermind	89
Scrapper	84
Sentinel	89
SoA	97
Stalker	93
Tanker	88
Total	1,188

 

Other items from packs: 

 

1258	Enhancement Unslotter
144	Catalyst
1587	Converter
233	Booster
1188	ATOs
387	Rewards X25
1080	Brain StormX20

 

 

[Yomo Kimyata]

Bless you for this, especially since I am a net buyer nowadays thanks to your work!  I cannot imagine how tedious this would be -- I generally don't post more than 50 IOs at a time because of ADHD burnout!

[Sakai]

How many characters do you need to spread the sales across?

[Troyusrex]

51 minutes ago, Sakai said:

How many characters do you need to spread the sales across?

I'm spreading sales across 13 alts. This is so I can have one per AT and can track sales per AT more easily. 

[ScrewlooseCohh]

Thanks I probably bought a couple as well.

 

23% return isn't bad although I suspect it would take me a lot longer for someone who wasn't as experienced in shelling packs (like me).

 

How many packs would you think you would have to open to avoid a bad run cruelling your return?

 

regards, Screwloose.

"I am not young enough to know everything."

[Troyusrex]

It used to take me more than 3 hours just to open the packs, and that's the easy part! I've greatly improved my process over time. 

 

I'm not terribly concerned with profit, but if I were doing lesser numbers I'd probably do a minimum of 10 and I'd convert all ATOs to brute or blaster. Maybe catalyze everything too. then you might expect a good bit higher return than 23%. You should put them on the market for under 10 million (if you don't catalyze), since you won't sell them for more than that until every one of mine are sold (and I'm considering acting as a market cap on ATOs to make sure they are always available).

 

I haven't done the math here to say how the return might differ. Statistically there's a chance, even when opening 1,000 that you won't get any ATOs and you'll be hip deep in dual inspirations, but the more you open the smaller that chance (and at 1,000 the chance is very close to zero). Given the way super pack rewards are determined, the math is complex. But if you open 10 and handle them right, it's hard to imagine not getting at least a 23% return. 

Edited July 26, 2020 by Troyusrex

[Troyusrex]

Here are my results from the first day of sales. I wouldn't draw too many conclusions as ATOs are slow sellers generally and tend to be bought in batches of 6. Moreover, these don't represent all ATOs sold, just those sold by ME for about 3 billion influence net of Wentworth fees. I'm mostly surprised by the Kheldian numbers, but it only takes a few alts deciding to buy to really skew the numbers in a day.

 

	Sold first 22 hours
Stalker	61
Corruptor	54
Tanker	45
Kheldian	42
Mastermind	34
Controller	27
Blaster	24
Defender	23
Dominator	20
Sentinel	20
Scrapper	18
SoA	14
Brute	13
Total	395

 

Edited July 26, 2020 by Troyusrex
Tidying up prose

[Yomo Kimyata]

8 hours ago, ScrewlooseCohh said:

 

 

How many packs would you think you would have to open to avoid a bad run cruelling your return?

I haven't run the numbers, since that sounds perilously like work to me.  From experience, the mean seems to work out around 1.2-1.3 ATOs per pack, and it's probably pretty straight forward to come up with an approximate standard deviation.  I generally do Packs in bunches of 25 to keep it manageable, and after ?a few hundred? bunches over the last year or so, I do not recall ever getting less than 28 ATOs or ever getting more than 38 ATOs, but I am definitely not a strict record keeper.  You might be ok with 10, but 25 is a good number for me.

52 minutes ago, Troyusrex said:

 I'm mostly surprised by the Kheldian numbers, but it only takes a few alts deciding to buy to really skew the numbers in a day.

Oddly enough I bought about 30 of those yesterday, but none at your usurious prices!

[Zalkenai]

This post really confuses me.  I am notoriously bad at figuring out the market. I don't know if it's my ADHD or if I'm just stupid (possibly a combination of both).  At any rate, it leads me to the simplest way for a bit of profit, which is super packs.  That being said, I have a bunch of ATOs listed at or around these prices, and they've just been sitting there for weeks, not selling. So I'm confused as to how it's working for you, when I have them listed at the same price...

 

Nothing I've done of late has made me any profit, and I'm having more and more trouble making inf other than farming, which I dislike.

[Ura Hero]

1 hour ago, Zalkenai said:

This post really confuses me.  I am notoriously bad at figuring out the market. I don't know if it's my ADHD or if I'm just stupid (possibly a combination of both).  At any rate, it leads me to the simplest way for a bit of profit, which is super packs.  That being said, I have a bunch of ATOs listed at or around these prices, and they've just been sitting there for weeks, not selling. So I'm confused as to how it's working for you, when I have them listed at the same price...

 

Nothing I've done of late has made me any profit, and I'm having more and more trouble making inf other than farming, which I dislike.

 

Most folks don't list at the exact price.  For example if the last 5 shows 16m, 15m, 17m, 17m, 16m.   You don't list at 17m if you want to sell.  You list less than that.  16.5m, 16.1m, etc.  Even then you are at the mercy of those that buy for 16m.  So perhaps you should list at 15.5m, 15.1m, etc.  If you list at the buy price you are going to get undercut pretty much every time.

[Zalkenai]

20 minutes ago, Ura Hero said:

 

Most folks don't list at the exact price.  For example if the last 5 shows 16m, 15m, 17m, 17m, 16m.   You don't list at 17m if you want to sell.  You list less than that.  16.5m, 16.1m, etc.  Even then you are at the mercy of those that buy for 16m.  So perhaps you should list at 15.5m, 15.1m, etc.  If you list at the buy price you are going to get undercut pretty much every time.

 

Thanks!

[FrauleinMental]

10 hours ago, Zalkenai said:

This post really confuses me.  I am notoriously bad at figuring out the market. I don't know if it's my ADHD or if I'm just stupid (possibly a combination of both).  At any rate, it leads me to the simplest way for a bit of profit, which is super packs.  That being said, I have a bunch of ATOs listed at or around these prices, and they've just been sitting there for weeks, not selling. So I'm confused as to how it's working for you, when I have them listed at the same price...

 

Nothing I've done of late has made me any profit, and I'm having more and more trouble making inf other than farming, which I dislike.

Most of us aren't dealing in the volume OP is, which is definitely a limiting factor.  Another limiting factor is that AH prices for the stuff that comes out of packs has decreased markedly in the last few months:  ATOs that sold within a day for 10M now sell in several days for 8M, Catalyst and Booster prices are down 20-30% and take days to move.  I used to make around 2-3M profit per pack plus merits; now it's just the merits.  More people at home for lockdown means more people are doing the pack opening trick, which means profits are leaner.

 

I did make around 3B profit in the last week opening winter packs, but I'd been saving those since buying them at the winter prices.  If you have them saved from winter you can make bank, but profits are lean if you're buying them at summer prices.

[Troyusrex]

 

19 hours ago, Zalkenai said:

At any rate, it leads me to the simplest way for a bit of profit, which is super packs. 

I consider super packs anything but simple to profit from and a fair amount of work to do so. 

 

If I wanted to profit simply, I'd keep watch of a commodity for a week (especially over the weekend), maybe something like rare salvage or catalysts. I'd get a sense for the highs and lows, but in a ton of bids just over the lows and then sell them at the highs. 

Edited July 28, 2020 by Troyusrex

[Troyusrex]

Here are the sales numbers for the first three days. Unsurprisingly, sales were strongest on the weekend and have slacked off markedly since then. There was a large brute run Sunday. About 2/3rds of my inventory is now sold. My cash levels are at about 8.25 billion, so I'm almost back to even (and that's after dumping 34K+ converters (including merits changes to converters)  plus the rare salvage on the market at 5 inf.

 

# Sold by Day	Day 1 (Sat-Sun)	Day 2 (Sun-Mon)	Day 3 (Mon-Tue)
Brute	13	87	90
Stalker	61	81	81
Corruptor	54	61	68
Kheldian	42	66	68
Tanker	45	62	66
Mastermind	34	49	55
Controller	27	46	54
Defender	23	42	53
Scrapper	18	34	50
Blaster	24	26	46
Dominator	20	33	46
Sentinel	20	37	38
SoA	14	31	37
Total	395	655	752

 

[Troyusrex]

19 hours ago, Zalkenai said:

...and they've just been sitting there for weeks, not selling. So I'm confused as to how it's working for you, when I have them listed at the same price...

Sorry, I'm sure I've contributed to this. As other posters have mentioned, I'm not selling at exactly 8m or 10m, but a bit below. If you are at 8m you won't sell yours until every one of mine of that type is sold as my offer price is lower (albeit not much). 

[Zalkenai]

1 hour ago, Troyusrex said:

Sorry, I'm sure I've contributed to this. As other posters have mentioned, I'm not selling at exactly 8m or 10m, but a bit below. If you are at 8m you won't sell yours until every one of mine of that type is sold as my offer price is lower (albeit not much). 

Much like real-world markets, I have to accept that I'm at the mercy of the power players!

 

2 hours ago, Troyusrex said:

 

I consider super packs anything but simple to profit from and a fair amount of work to do so. 

 

If I wanted to profit simply, I'd keep watch of a commodity for a week (especially over the weekend), maybe something like rare salvage or catalysts. I'd get a sense for the highs and lows, but in a ton of bids just over the lows and then sell them at the highs. 

That is interesting to me. What I find complex is very different from other people. I have a strange brain, so I have to accommodate it.

 

Thank you for the replies, this forum has still been very informative to me.

[Yomo Kimyata]

6 minutes ago, Zalkenai said:

Much like real-world markets, I have to accept that I'm at the mercy of the power players!

 

That is interesting to me. What I find complex is very different from other people. I have a strange brain, so I have to accommodate it.

 

Thank you for the replies, this forum has still been very informative to me.

Due to the mechanics that bids and offers are blind, but then the lowest offer goes to the highest bidder, it's a strategy game to try and outwit other sellers and buyers.

 

For example:  If I want to sell something for 2mm, I could list it at 2mm.  But someone who offers it at 1,999,999 is going to sell it first.  If it's a high flow item, then new offers under 2mm make keep coming in and selling before me, so even if I see the past 5 history full of 2mm or even 3,4,5! it's because supply kept coming in that was listed under 2mm.  Now, I could offer at 1mm, but then I run the risk of someone bidding 1mm and buying it there.

 

With few exceptions, when I talk about selling something at a particular price, I am actually offering it at a level somewhere below that price and hoping/expecting to sell it at that price.

[Zalkenai]

41 minutes ago, Yomo Kimyata said:

Due to the mechanics that bids and offers are blind, but then the lowest offer goes to the highest bidder, it's a strategy game to try and outwit other sellers and buyers.

 

For example:  If I want to sell something for 2mm, I could list it at 2mm.  But someone who offers it at 1,999,999 is going to sell it first.  If it's a high flow item, then new offers under 2mm make keep coming in and selling before me, so even if I see the past 5 history full of 2mm or even 3,4,5! it's because supply kept coming in that was listed under 2mm.  Now, I could offer at 1mm, but then I run the risk of someone bidding 1mm and buying it there.

 

With few exceptions, when I talk about selling something at a particular price, I am actually offering it at a level somewhere below that price and hoping/expecting to sell it at that price.

 

Yup. I understand the mechanics of this. What I'm bad at is figuring out the right price.  I *think* I'm starting to get better. After posting yesterday, while I'm not making the bank that most people are, it's increasing at a decent rate.

[nihilii]

On super packs specifically, I sell several a week (low hundreds) and the following are the price points I use:

- 7,222,222 inf for "normal" ATOs. Often sells at 8M, sometimes sells at 7.5M, sometimes sell for more.

- 8,222,222 inf for brute and blaster ATOs. I sometimes list these at 8,522,222 inf if they sell out too fast and for just 8M5

- all merits get converted into Winter IOs. All Winter IOs get sold for 20,222,222 inf

 

Listing for those price points, hundreds of ATOs sell in a couple days. I convert most kheldian and soldier of arachnos IOs because they're too slow to move. Dominator, controller and sentinel IOs can also take a while, and are sometimes worth converting.

 

Use those same prices (or even better, undercut me by 1 inf) and I have no doubt you will be able to sell all your stuff and turn a small profit.

Edited July 28, 2020 by nihilii

[Zalkenai]

21 hours ago, nihilii said:

On super packs specifically, I sell several a week (low hundreds) and the following are the price points I use:

- 7,222,222 inf for "normal" ATOs. Often sells at 8M, sometimes sells at 7.5M, sometimes sell for more.

- 8,222,222 inf for brute and blaster ATOs. I sometimes list these at 8,522,222 inf if they sell out too fast and for just 8M5

- all merits get converted into Winter IOs. All Winter IOs get sold for 20,222,222 inf

 

Listing for those price points, hundreds of ATOs sell in a couple days. I convert most kheldian and soldier of arachnos IOs because they're too slow to move. Dominator, controller and sentinel IOs can also take a while, and are sometimes worth converting.

 

Use those same prices (or even better, undercut me by 1 inf) and I have no doubt you will be able to sell all your stuff and turn a small profit.

After my previous posts, I decided to take the hit and delist my ATOs, relisting lower and they sold pretty quickly (before you posted this, btw). I think I listed at 7M even, which is not ideal but I wanted to see what would happen.
I want to thank you for your post, you'd think putting your actual numbers would hurt you, but it seems like so many people just use the AH on a "gimme I need it now" basis that we can all manage to profit from it.

For anyone following my stupidity: I've taken the advice from this forum and made myself a meager 500million.  Small by your standards but pretty good for me.

[Yomo Kimyata]

It's really the only secret of Ebil club:  at what level do you offer.  But like you say, there's plenty for everyone!