We have no way of knowing the odds at the moment.
Here's what we KNOW:
NCSoft knows we exist.
A group is talking to NCSoft regarding the existence of private servers.
So far NCSoft has taken no action against private servers.
So far NCSoft has made no official statement to any of the news outlets reporting on the existence of private servers.
Decision could go either way at this point.
We might lose everything we've have here.
However, the code is in the wild now. If this, or any other, server gets shut down, either it will rise again under a new name, perhaps a little more quietly, or if not... another will take its place. The existence of CoH servers is a given now.
HAIL HYDRA!
(No, I am not leaving Homecoming unless the servers close)