Common salvage, all bids filled!

[Troyusrex]

I was shocked this morning to put a bunch of common salvage on the market for 5 inf only to find it not all selling immediately. Then, lo and behold I look and see there are 0 bidders.

 

Kudos to whoever filled all bid for common salvage! That's quite a feat!

 

Edited September 4, 2020 by Troyusrex
Adding proof

[Yomo Kimyata]

6 minutes ago, Troyusrex said:

 

 

Kudos to whoever filled all bid for common salvage! That's quite a feat!

 

 

Not to pooh-pooh, but it happens a fair amount.  Maybe every week or every other?  Supply of common is far greater than demand.  You can see that there is still a half million listed for sale over and above the 10mm that were seeded.

 

What I'd love to see (and I'm not willing to do all the clicks) is someone lifting all 10.5mm in the market at 10k (the seeded price).  Who's in?

[Troyusrex]

 

3 minutes ago, Yomo Kimyata said:

but it happens a fair amount.  

Could be, but I have to admit I've never seen it before. 

[Ukase]

2 hours ago, Yomo Kimyata said:

What I'd love to see (and I'm not willing to do all the clicks) is someone lifting all 10.5mm in the market at 10k (the seeded price).  Who's in?

Given the limit of transactions in the AH, that's what...150*10, 1500 per character, with 1000 characters - 1,500,000 total salvage in the ah, plus at MOST 282 per character, (vault storage beyond the characters normal salvage cap of 100) which is 282,000. 

Unless we are deleting stacks of 10 as we pull them in...I don't see it happening. And I, for one, have better things to do, lol. 

[Yomo Kimyata]

10 minutes ago, Ukase said:

Unless we are deleting stacks of 10 as we pull them in...I don't see it happening. And I, for one, have better things to do, lol. 

I was thinking of vendoring.  And yeah, that's still a lot of clicks...

[Coyotedancer]

Not to mention it being kind-of a dick move... Common salvage's seed price is just stupid. It's "common", after all.

[Yomo Kimyata]

26 minutes ago, Coyotedancer said:

Not to mention it being kind-of a dick move... Common salvage's seed price is just stupid. It's "common", after all.

I thought about it being a dick move, but common salvage comes into the system almost faster than the AH can process it.  I feel pretty confident that even if people bought every single common salvage on the AH, the equilibrium price would still be in the 5-500 level (assuming that the bidders stopped after 10.5mm).

 

And if the bidding didn't stop, AErs would/should quickly realize that at 8 tickets to 10k inf, common salvage would be generated like mad.  People who normally vendor or delete commons would dump them into the market.  And in the worst case scenario, the devs would just put another 10mm into the seed pile.

 

Nah, it's just a pipe dream.

[ScrewlooseCohh]

On 9/5/2020 at 4:19 AM, Yomo Kimyata said:

I was thinking of vendoring.  And yeah, that's still a lot of clicks...

I have often bought whole bunches of white salvage at under an up to 250 a piece and vendored them just to take excess volume out of the system.

For a few weeks I have been keeping several hundred buy orders in for yellow salvage at under 1000 and vendoring whatever I get.

At the start I could get 100's a day at 505 each, recently it has been up to 851 and I haven't filled all my buy orders each day.

At the same time the number of salvage pieces for sale has been going down from about 34k to under 28k.  Though I think it will be harder to get it down as it gets lower.

 

regards, Screwloose.

"I am not you enough to know everything."

[Coyotedancer]

And you're doing this... why? Just to try to push up prices, or what?

[Yomo Kimyata]

12 hours ago, ScrewlooseCohh said:

I have often bought whole bunches of white salvage at under an up to 250 a piece and vendored them just to take excess volume out of the system.

For a few weeks I have been keeping several hundred buy orders in for yellow salvage at under 1000 and vendoring whatever I get.

At the start I could get 100's a day at 505 each, recently it has been up to 851 and I haven't filled all my buy orders each day.

At the same time the number of salvage pieces for sale has been going down from about 34k to under 28k.  Though I think it will be harder to get it down as it gets lower.

 

regards, Screwloose.

"I am not you enough to know everything."

I still do this occasionally -- it's a great way to raise a few mm in funds pretty quickly.  I wrote a guide that had my strategy on trading common salvage that had me buying at 155 and selling at 255.  Nowadays, I'd put in a lower bid and just vendor it.

 

Lest anyone bemoan the loss of a few thousand common salvage as inflationary pressure, let me tell you about an experiment I did earlier this morning.  I put in a bid for 1,000 inanimate carbon rods (In Rod We Trust!) at 1,000 inf and timed how long it took to fill.  5:06.  I then vendored them at 250 and by the time I was finished (1-2 minutes?) it was trading well under 250 again.  

 

But I thought, hmm, some of that time may have been waiting for supply to come into the market as opposed to just lifting outstanding bids at or under 1,000.  So I put in a bid for 1,000 inanimate carbon rods at 10,000 and timed it.  Since 10k is the seeded cap according to the devs, it was guaranteed that there was supply in the system and that any time it took would be chalked up purely to processing time.  4:36.  It took over 4 1/2 minutes for the AH simply to match up buyers and sellers in the system.  I then vendored them at 250 and by the time I was finished it was, again, trading under 250.  I just checked a few minutes ago and they were trading at 5 inf.

 

I'm not sure how many new pieces of common salvage come into the system at any price each day.  I'd guess over 10k and under 1mm, and if you put a band-aid arrow to my head I'd say low to mid 6 figures.

Edited September 6, 2020 by Yomo Kimyata

[Coyotedancer]

Oh, at least that many...

I doubt both of you working in concert could raise the prices for very long, practically speaking. Common salvage is just too... well... COMMON for that. XD

 

Honestly, it's mostly just that I find attempts at price manipulation like that a dick move on pure principle. I knew people back in the Live days who delighted in "market PvP" with things like Luck Charms, and I gave them grief about it at the time.  It's exactly the kind of thing that gives marketeering types a reputation for being predatory asshats, which I really don't think is a Good Thing when you get down to it. 

[Sir Myshkin]

So I was curious about common volume and wanted to see how much could be shifted out of the market over the last couple of days. I tossed out several dozen fair market bids slightly under vendor value (nothing that would look abnormal). The bids filled within minutes, mostly as quick as the server could parse where the property came from, convert it to my piece, and fill the bid.

 

I thought “huh, that was... quick.” I decided to amp it up and went 150 stacks, noted roughly where the market sat and went to run a TF. An hour later the stacks were about 70% complete. Filled it back up and logged for the night.

 

Next day I checked back in, all stacks were filled and the market was still stable around that bid value, and the common available salvage was UP from where I started. I was not putting what I purchased back on the market, I sold it all to the vendor to break even, and despite that the pile had gone up. I went another 170 in, 1,700 pieces. 24 hours rolled, market went up by 1,000 supply, and all stacks filled, and the average bid was down to 100-150.

 

The supply of commons is increasing day over day, even over-extending purchase volume by a huge margin. I had expected to slightly shift the other direction and chew into the supply a little bit that didn’t happen at all. Given this, I’m curious how many characters are sitting out there holding that supply, or are they sourced from abandoned/deleted toons and what asking price they were dropped at, and why those players haven’t just vended that stuff by now.

 

The biggest question I wanted an answer to was whether I could in fact buy out the surplus of common salvage (not like it’s actually be that much cost wise). Unless I did it collectively across multiple characters in one fatal shot, doing it daily off one character has already proven impossible... and that’s with the fact that player traffic is actually down right now!

 

Im definitely not going to, I was just wondering what the effect might be.

 

I also don’t feel like throwing out half a billion influence on salvage that’s clearly sitting on inactive characters/accounts just to prove a point 😅

 

 

[Yomo Kimyata]

40 minutes ago, Sir Myshkin said:

So I was curious

A few observations:

 

At some point last spring/summer, someone apparently put in a cap at 5,000 inf for commons overnight.  I bought thousands there, maybe ten thousands, trying to lift the cap, and assumed that the devs had lowered the seeding level from 10k to 5k.  They assure me the cap was not changed, so I now assume that those offers are still out there around that level.

 

Buying out the surplus cap, assuming it's 500,000 units, no new units come in, it takes 5 minutes to process the purchase of 1,000 units, switch characters, vendor 1,000 units, switch back, etc. means that it would take close to 2 days of real time to process.  

 

 

[ScrewlooseCohh]

On 9/6/2020 at 8:24 PM, Coyotedancer said:

And you're doing this... why? Just to try to push up prices, or what?

There wasn’t a lot of thought behind it.

 

When I started I was seeing runs of purchases around 150 and I thought that was a level where someone was getting a bad deal so I started putting bulk buy orders of my own at higher than whatever I was seeing.  I think that started at about 500 and has slowly crept up.

 

When I say bulk I am only talking about 30 to 40 stacks on 4 or 5 characters.  So between 150 and 200 stacks in total.  Which is a bit, but I am seeing about 20,000 buy orders at some points so I am at most 10% of the standing buy orders.

 

I was also interested to see what would happen.

 

One thing that happened is that there seem to be others with large bulk buy orders, because every few days I will find my orders not filled and see purchases a couple of inf higher than I was offering.  So I bump my buy price and put another round of bulk orders in.  That peaked at 851 and has slipped back a bit since.

 

Also there is an element of price support.  I think around 1000 is a reasonable price for yellow salvage so I wouldn’t be bulk buying at a higher price than that and when I need some for crafting I usually pay less than 1000, depending on how quick I want it.

 

In the last couple of weeks I have been interested to see how low the stockpile (over the seed stock) will go and it seems to be slowly going down.  I have no idea what the low point will be, at some point we will get to the stranded stock that people have way overpriced, but I think we are still away to go to get there.

 

regards, Screwloose.

"I am not young enough to know everything."

 

[Yomo Kimyata]

10 hours ago, ScrewlooseCohh said:

 

I was also interested to see what would happen.

 

You had me at hello.

 

[Sir Myshkin]

There's apparently quite a few of us poking a stick at the market lately. 😄

 

[Coyotedancer]

Somebody's got'ta....

[Ukase]

On 9/6/2020 at 11:18 AM, Yomo Kimyata said:

4:36.  It took over 4 1/2 minutes for the AH simply to match up buyers and sellers in the system. 

This is part of the reason why so many people over spend! They haven't considered the time it takes for Homecoming's tiny gerbils to turn the wheels in the cage! 

So...bid creepers...(You know - you folks that bid 1 inf, then 10 inf, then 100 inf, etc. ) now you know you have to wait about 4:30 for your bid to actually be processed. 

Or do you....

I just put a bid in for 10 alchemical servers at 10k..took 3 seconds, give or take a fraction. So, the gerbils may be better fed than I thought. Still...I think patience is probably a good idea when dealing with the AH. 

Edited September 12, 2020 by Ukase
Correction

[Ura Hero]

Usually 30 seconds is plenty of time for the AH to fill a reasonable request such as a bid for 10 assuming that the items are actually available.   I never bid creep fast, it is a good way t overspend easily.  

 

Patience is a virtue.

[Yomo Kimyata]

13 hours ago, Ukase said:

This is part of the reason why so many people over spend! They haven't considered the time it takes for Homecoming's tiny gerbils to turn the wheels in the cage! 

So...bid creepers...(You know - you folks that bid 1 inf, then 10 inf, then 100 inf, etc. ) now you know you have to wait about 4:30 for your bid to actually be processed. 

Or do you....

I just put a bid in for 10 alchemical servers at 10k..took 3 seconds, give or take a fraction. So, the gerbils may be better fed than I thought. Still...I think patience is probably a good idea when dealing with the AH. 

 

5 hours ago, Ura Hero said:

Usually 30 seconds is plenty of time for the AH to fill a reasonable request such as a bid for 10 assuming that the items are actually available.   I never bid creep fast, it is a good way t overspend easily.  

 

Patience is a virtue.

To be clear, those times I quoted were the time it took to process 100 blocks of ten.  A single block of ten usually takes at most a few seconds.  If that block of ten is one order, it processes much more quickly than if it were ten orders at ten different prices with ten different counterparties.

[Ukase]

5 minutes ago, Yomo Kimyata said:

 

To be clear, those times I quoted were the time it took to process 100 blocks of ten.  A single block of ten usually takes at most a few seconds.  If that block of ten is one order, it processes much more quickly than if it were ten orders at ten different prices with ten different counterparties.

Yeah, I became aware and re-read your post when I tried it myself. 3 seconds for a stack of 10. Still, I think patience is rewarded when bid-creeping. Gotta give the servers time to work when dealing with large volumes.