Yomo Kimyata Posted October 30, 2020 Posted October 30, 2020 (edited) Now, despite having used the conversion process many times, I realized that I still had a few fundamental questions as to how the process works with respect to conversion by rarity. Now, I don’t think it is critical to know *exactly* how the process works if we can pretty easily get a more-than-working knowledge of how the process works. A young child can learn to catch a thrown ball without knowing calculus. But I wanted to think about the assumptions I have made, and maybe test those assumptions, because at the end of the day I’m just another curious ape. I’ve wondered for some time how the conversion-by-rarity selects what the available pool is, and how it assigns probability of outcome. I’ve come up with a number of possible scenarios (I’m sure there are more, so please add any you come up with!) as to how the process works. (Of course, all this speculation would go away if someone delves into the code, but let’s indulge my idle curiosity): Determine all IOs that are available and randomly transform the IO to one from the available pool. Example: Starting with a level 20 Cleaving Blow IO. There are, I believe, 195 total unique uncommon* IOs available at level 20. This process would transform to one of 191 (not a Cleaving Blow) possible IOs. So, roll the dice, and BAM you get a Befuddling Aura: Confuse/Recharge. The probability could be evenly weighted, or could have some other distribution. If evenly weighted, we would expect each IO to come up about as often as any other. *There are 27 “uncommon rares” which are IOs from rare sets that are listed as uncommon in the AH. Usually, but not always, these don’t require rare salvage. And they are not considered uncommon. More on these later. Determine all sets that are available, then choose a set randomly. Then choose within the set randomly. Example: again, starting with a level 20 Cleaving Blow. There are, I believe, 44 unique common sets at level 20. So, this process would choose 1 of 43 other sets randomly (again, could be evenly weighted, or some other distribution), and then choose within that set randomly (this would almost certainly be evenly weighted). So, roll the dice and BAM you get Befuddling Aura. Roll the dice again and BAM you get Confuse/Recharge. If evenly weighted, we would expect to see all sets have roughly the same number of choices. For sets with three members, we would expect to see each member come up more often than for sets with six members. Determine all categories that are available, and choose a category. If there is more than one set in that category, then choose a set. Then choose a member of the set. Example: Roll the dice and get Confuse. Roll again and get Befuddling Aura. Roll again and get Confuse/Recharge. Other. So what did I do? PART I: The Uncommoning I bought 500 level 20 Cleaving Blow A/D and 500 level 20 Cleaving Blow D/E recipes on the AH, crafted them and put them in base storage. I bought 10,000 converters under my standard budgeting rule of 10 converters per IO. Then for the first part of the three part project, I converted each IO by uncommon rarity once and tracked the results. Why Cleaving Blow? I’d prefer to all start from the same IO, just in case it affects the RNG, but buying all within the same set should be almost as good. I went with Cleaving Blow since the recipe goes from 10-50 and therefore should drop a fair amount. I chose A/D and D/E because, well, the other two required rare salvage. Why 1,000? It’s a nice round number, but it’s also right on the cusp of being statistically significant. If I could hold 2,000 IOs in my base, I might have done that, but even 1,000 items noticeably slows down processing speed in bases. Plus, it took me longer than I liked to even accumulate 1,000 (I’d like to specifically thank the person who started ramping up bids on Cleaving Blow recipes right when I was on my last 100…) Why level 20? Two economic reasons: 1. Lower is better because of crafting costs; 2. Level 20 has enough set variety (but not as much as level 30 or 31) to get good stats, but I should still be able to sell the end results in a timely fashion. How long did it take? I’d say about a week or two to accumulate the recipes. Once everything was in the bins, it took me an hour to convert all IOs and track them, following the adage that it takes five times as long to document something as it takes to actually do it. How much did it cost? 712,671,000 inf, which was almost all invested in converters. So what happened? STAY TUNED! Edited October 30, 2020 by Yomo Kimyata 2 5 Who run Bartertown?
Hardship Posted October 30, 2020 Posted October 30, 2020 I'm hanging on the edge of my seat! What a cliffhanger...
Yomo Kimyata Posted October 31, 2020 Author Posted October 31, 2020 Part I: The Uncommoning (cont.) So, I tracked the results, then I looked at the frequency compared to what I think “normal” would look like in terms of statistics. Here’s the data (WARNING: STATISTICS): 2-standard deviations (explains ~95% of outcomes) Spoiler By IO By Set p 0.524% 2.326% p(1-p) 0.526% 2.271% n 1000 1000 SE 0.229% 0.477% -2 By IO 2 -2 By Set 2 * sigma result * sigma * sigma result * sigma Achilles' Heel: DD Adrenal Adjustment: EM 0.06% 0.60% 0.98% 1.37% 3.10% 3.28% Adrenal Adjustment: EM/R 0.06% 1.40% 0.98% Adrenal Adjustment: EM/R/A 0.06% 1.10% 0.98% Air Burst: A/D 0.06% 0.30% 0.98% 1.37% 1.70% 3.28% Air Burst: D/E 0.06% 0.50% 0.98% Air Burst: D/Rng 0.06% 0.20% 0.98% Air Burst: D/R 0.06% 0.70% 0.98% Annoyance: T 0.06% 0.90% 0.98% 1.37% 3.40% 3.28% Annoyance: T/R 0.06% 1.20% 0.98% Annoyance: T/R/Rng 0.06% 1.30% 0.98% Befuddling Aura: A/C/R 0.06% 0.40% 0.98% 1.37% 2.70% 3.28% Befuddling Aura: A/E 0.06% 0.30% 0.98% Befuddling Aura: A/R 0.06% 0.90% 0.98% Befuddling Aura: C/R 0.06% 0.40% 0.98% Befuddling Aura: E/C 0.06% 0.70% 0.98% Bonesnap: A/D 0.06% 1.10% 0.98% 1.37% 2.20% 3.28% Bonesnap: A/R 0.06% 0.50% 0.98% Bonesnap: D/E 0.06% 0.60% 0.98% Brilliant Leadership: A 0.06% 0.50% 0.98% 1.37% 2.90% 3.28% Brilliant Leadership: A/D 0.06% 0.80% 0.98% Brilliant Leadership: A/D/E 0.06% 0.40% 0.98% Brilliant Leadership: A/E 0.06% 0.40% 0.98% Brilliant Leadership: D 0.06% 0.40% 0.98% Brilliant Leadership: D/E 0.06% 0.40% 0.98% Bruising Blow: A/D 0.06% 1.10% 0.98% 1.37% 2.90% 3.28% Bruising Blow: D/E 0.06% 1.00% 0.98% Bruising Blow: D/R 0.06% 0.80% 0.98% Cacophony: A/R Calibrated Accuracy: A/D 0.06% 0.20% 0.98% 1.37% 2.00% 3.28% Calibrated Accuracy: A/D/R 0.06% 0.60% 0.98% Calibrated Accuracy: A/E 0.06% 0.20% 0.98% Calibrated Accuracy: A/I 0.06% 0.60% 0.98% Calibrated Accuracy: A/Rng 0.06% 0.40% 0.98% Calibrated Accuracy: A/R 0.06% 0.00% 0.98% Cleaving Blow: A/D Cleaving Blow: A/R Cleaving Blow: D/E Cleaving Blow: D/R Commanding Presence: A/D Curtail Speed: A/E 0.06% 0.70% 0.98% 1.37% 2.10% 3.28% Curtail Speed: A/S 0.06% 0.80% 0.98% Curtail Speed: D/S 0.06% 0.20% 0.98% Curtail Speed: E/R/S 0.06% 0.30% 0.98% Curtail Speed: Rng/S 0.06% 0.10% 0.98% Debilitative Action: A/R Deflated Ego: THD Detonation: A/D 0.06% 0.30% 0.98% 1.37% 2.20% 3.28% Detonation: A/D/E 0.06% 0.10% 0.98% Detonation: D/E 0.06% 0.60% 0.98% Detonation: D/E/Rng 0.06% 0.40% 0.98% Detonation: D/Rng 0.06% 0.50% 0.98% Detonation: D/R 0.06% 0.30% 0.98% Discouraging Words: THD 0.06% 1.00% 0.98% 1.37% 2.60% 3.28% Discouraging Words: THD/R 0.06% 0.70% 0.98% Discouraging Words: THD/R/E 0.06% 0.90% 0.98% Edict of the Master: A/D Encouraged Accuracy: THB 0.06% 0.70% 0.98% 1.37% 2.00% 3.28% Encouraged Accuracy: THB/R 0.06% 0.50% 0.98% Encouraged Accuracy: THB/R/E 0.06% 0.80% 0.98% Energy Manipulator: EM Enfeebled Operation: A/E 0.06% 0.40% 0.98% 1.37% 2.20% 3.28% Enfeebled Operation: A/I 0.06% 0.30% 0.98% Enfeebled Operation: A/I/R 0.06% 0.20% 0.98% Enfeebled Operation: A/R 0.06% 0.30% 0.98% Enfeebled Operation: E/I 0.06% 0.60% 0.98% Enfeebled Operation: I/Rng 0.06% 0.40% 0.98% Entropic Chaos: A/D Essence of Curare: A/E 0.06% 0.40% 0.98% 1.37% 2.20% 3.28% Essence of Curare: A/H 0.06% 0.70% 0.98% Essence of Curare: A/H/R 0.06% 0.40% 0.98% Essence of Curare: A/R 0.06% 0.30% 0.98% Essence of Curare: E/H 0.06% 0.30% 0.98% Essence of Curare: H/Rng 0.06% 0.10% 0.98% Exploit Weakness: A/D 0.06% 0.50% 0.98% 1.37% 2.60% 3.28% Exploit Weakness: D/E 0.06% 0.40% 0.98% Exploit Weakness: D/Rng 0.06% 0.70% 0.98% Exploit Weakness: D/R 0.06% 1.00% 0.98% Exploited Vulnerability: DD 0.06% 1.10% 0.98% 1.37% 2.50% 3.28% Exploited Vulnerability: DD/R 0.06% 0.80% 0.98% Exploited Vulnerability: DD/R/E 0.06% 0.60% 0.98% Explosive Strike: KB/D Far Strike: A/E 0.06% 0.50% 0.98% 1.37% 2.00% 3.28% Far Strike: D/Rng 0.06% 0.90% 0.98% Far Strike: D/R 0.06% 0.60% 0.98% Gift of the Ancients: D/E Harmonized Healing: E 0.06% 0.50% 0.98% 1.37% 2.20% 3.28% Harmonized Healing: E/R 0.06% 0.10% 0.98% Harmonized Healing: H/A 0.06% 0.50% 0.98% Harmonized Healing: H/A/E 0.06% 0.50% 0.98% Harmonized Healing: H/A/E/R 0.06% 0.00% 0.98% Harmonized Healing: H/A/R 0.06% 0.60% 0.98% Hibernation: A/E 0.06% 0.90% 0.98% 1.37% 3.00% 3.28% Hibernation: A/R 0.06% 0.70% 0.98% Hibernation: A/S/R 0.06% 0.60% 0.98% Hibernation: E/S 0.06% 0.30% 0.98% Hibernation: S/Rng 0.06% 0.50% 0.98% Horror: A/E 0.06% 0.50% 0.98% 1.37% 2.40% 3.28% Horror: A/F/R 0.06% 0.50% 0.98% Horror: A/R 0.06% 0.70% 0.98% Horror: E/F 0.06% 0.30% 0.98% Horror: F/Rng 0.06% 0.40% 0.98% Impeded Swiftness: A/S Impervious Skin: R/E Impervium Armor: R/E Induced Coma: A/R Jaunt: E 0.06% 0.70% 0.98% 1.37% 2.10% 3.28% Jaunt: E/Rng 0.06% 0.70% 0.98% Jaunt: Rng 0.06% 0.70% 0.98% Karma: D/E 0.06% 0.80% 0.98% 1.37% 1.60% 3.28% Karma: D/R 0.06% 0.40% 0.98% Karma: KB Prot 0.06% 0.40% 0.98% Kinetic Combat: A/D Kismet: D/E Lethargic Repose: A/E 0.06% 0.50% 0.98% 1.37% 2.00% 3.28% Lethargic Repose: A/R 0.06% 0.20% 0.98% Lethargic Repose: A/S 0.06% 0.20% 0.98% Lethargic Repose: A/S/R 0.06% 0.40% 0.98% Lethargic Repose: E/S 0.06% 0.30% 0.98% Lethargic Repose: S/Rng 0.06% 0.40% 0.98% Maelstrom's Fury: A/D 0.06% 0.80% 0.98% 1.37% 2.70% 3.28% Maelstrom's Fury: D/E 0.06% 0.60% 0.98% Maelstrom's Fury: D/E/R 0.06% 0.40% 0.98% Maelstrom's Fury: D/R 0.06% 0.90% 0.98% Miracle: H/A/E Multi-Strike: A/D 0.06% 0.50% 0.98% 1.37% 2.00% 3.28% Multi-Strike: A/D/E 0.06% 0.40% 0.98% Multi-Strike: A/E 0.06% 0.20% 0.98% Multi-Strike: D/E 0.06% 0.50% 0.98% Multi-Strike: D/E/R 0.06% 0.20% 0.98% Multi-Strike: D/R 0.06% 0.20% 0.98% Neuronic Shutdown: A/R Nightmare: A/E 0.06% 0.60% 0.98% 1.37% 2.20% 3.28% Nightmare: A/F 0.06% 0.50% 0.98% Nightmare: A/F/R 0.06% 0.10% 0.98% Nightmare: A/R 0.06% 0.60% 0.98% Nightmare: E/F 0.06% 0.00% 0.98% Nightmare: F/Rng 0.06% 0.40% 0.98% Paralytic: A/E 0.06% 0.50% 0.98% 1.37% 2.20% 3.28% Paralytic: A/H/R 0.06% 0.50% 0.98% Paralytic: A/R 0.06% 0.40% 0.98% Paralytic: E/H 0.06% 0.40% 0.98% Paralytic: H/Rng 0.06% 0.40% 0.98% Perplex: A/C/R 0.06% 0.60% 0.98% 1.37% 2.80% 3.28% Perplex: A/E 0.06% 0.50% 0.98% Perplex: A/R 0.06% 0.50% 0.98% Perplex: C/Rng 0.06% 0.20% 0.98% Perplex: E/C 0.06% 0.60% 0.98% Perplex: R/C 0.06% 0.40% 0.98% Pounding Slugfest: A/D Pulverizing Fisticuffs: A/D Quickfoot: E 0.06% 0.90% 0.98% 1.37% 2.60% 3.28% Quickfoot: E/Run 0.06% 0.50% 0.98% Quickfoot: Run 0.06% 1.20% 0.98% Razzle Dazzle: A/R Reactive Armor: E 0.06% 0.40% 0.98% 1.37% 2.30% 3.28% Reactive Armor: E/R 0.06% 0.40% 0.98% Reactive Armor: R 0.06% 0.10% 0.98% Reactive Armor: R/E 0.06% 0.80% 0.98% Reactive Armor: R/E/R 0.06% 0.20% 0.98% Reactive Armor: R/R 0.06% 0.40% 0.98% Rectified Reticle: THB Regenerative Tissue: H/A/E Rooting Grasp: A/E 0.06% 0.40% 0.98% 1.37% 2.40% 3.28% Rooting Grasp: A/I/R 0.06% 0.20% 0.98% Rooting Grasp: A/R 0.06% 0.60% 0.98% Rooting Grasp: E/I 0.06% 0.30% 0.98% Rooting Grasp: I/Rng 0.06% 0.90% 0.98% Rope a Dope: A/E 0.06% 0.70% 0.98% 1.37% 2.60% 3.28% Rope A Dope: A/R 0.06% 0.50% 0.98% Rope A Dope: A/S 0.06% 0.40% 0.98% Rope A Dope: A/S/R 0.06% 0.20% 0.98% Rope A Dope: E/S 0.06% 0.50% 0.98% Rope A Dope: S/Rng 0.06% 0.30% 0.98% Salvo: A/D Serendipity: D 0.06% 0.30% 0.98% 1.37% 1.00% 3.28% Serendipity: D/E 0.06% 0.10% 0.98% Serendipity: D/E/R 0.06% 0.00% 0.98% Serendipity: D/R 0.06% 0.10% 0.98% Serendipity: E 0.06% 0.20% 0.98% Serendipity: E/R 0.06% 0.30% 0.98% Smashing Haymaker: A/D 0.06% 0.40% 0.98% 1.37% 1.90% 3.28% Smashing Haymaker: D/E 0.06% 0.70% 0.98% Smashing Haymaker: D/E/R 0.06% 0.50% 0.98% Smashing Haymaker: D/R 0.06% 0.30% 0.98% Soaring: E 0.06% 1.00% 0.98% 1.37% 2.30% 3.28% Soaring: E/Fly 0.06% 0.70% 0.98% Soaring: Fly 0.06% 0.60% 0.98% Springfoot: E 0.06% 1.00% 0.98% 1.37% 2.60% 3.28% Springfoot: E/Jump 0.06% 0.70% 0.98% Springfoot: Jump 0.06% 0.90% 0.98% Stagger: A/E 0.06% 0.30% 0.98% 1.37% 2.70% 3.28% Stagger: A/R 0.06% 0.60% 0.98% Stagger: A/S/R 0.06% 0.40% 0.98% Stagger: E/S 0.06% 0.70% 0.98% Stagger: S/Rng 0.06% 0.70% 0.98% Steadfast Protection: KB Prot 0.06% 0.80% 0.98% 1.37% 2.50% 3.28% Steadfast Protection: R/Def 0.06% 0.70% 0.98% Steadfast Protection: R/E 0.06% 1.00% 0.98% Tempered Readiness: A/D/S 0.06% 0.40% 0.98% 1.37% 2.40% 3.28% Tempered Readiness: A/E 0.06% 0.30% 0.98% Tempered Readiness: A/S 0.06% 0.40% 0.98% Tempered Readiness: D/S 0.06% 0.40% 0.98% Tempered Readiness: E/R/S 0.06% 0.60% 0.98% Tempered Readiness: Rng/S 0.06% 0.30% 0.98% Tempest: A/D Triage: E/R 0.06% 0.70% 0.98% 1.37% 2.30% 3.28% Triage: H/A/E 0.06% 0.60% 0.98% Triage: H/A/E/R 0.06% 0.50% 0.98% Triage: H/A/R 0.06% 0.50% 0.98% Triumphant Insult: T Unquestioning Loyalty: A/D 0.06% 0.60% 0.98% 1.37% 2.10% 3.28% Unquestioning Loyalty: A/D/E 0.06% 0.40% 0.98% Unquestioning Loyalty: A/E 0.06% 0.50% 0.98% Unquestioning Loyalty: D/E 0.06% 0.60% 0.98% Unspeakable Terror: A/R Volley Fire: A/D 0.06% 0.60% 0.98% 1.37% 1.80% 3.28% Volley Fire: D/E 0.06% 0.40% 0.98% Volley Fire: D/R 0.06% 0.80% 0.98% Volley of Velocity: KB/A 0.06% 0.80% 0.98% 1.37% 2.00% 3.28% Volley of Velocity: KB/D 0.06% 0.50% 0.98% Volley of Velocity: KB/R 0.06% 0.70% 0.98% 3-standard deviations (explains ~99% of outcomes) Spoiler By IO By Set p 0.524% 2.326% p(1-p) 0.526% 2.271% n 1000 1000 SE 0.229% 0.477% -3 By IO 3 -3 By Set 3 * sigma result * sigma * sigma result * sigma Achilles' Heel: DD Adrenal Adjustment: EM -0.16% 0.60% 1.21% 0.90% 3.10% 3.76% Adrenal Adjustment: EM/R -0.16% 1.40% 1.21% Adrenal Adjustment: EM/R/A -0.16% 1.10% 1.21% Air Burst: A/D -0.16% 0.30% 1.21% 0.90% 1.70% 3.76% Air Burst: D/E -0.16% 0.50% 1.21% Air Burst: D/Rng -0.16% 0.20% 1.21% Air Burst: D/R -0.16% 0.70% 1.21% Annoyance: T -0.16% 0.90% 1.21% 0.90% 3.40% 3.76% Annoyance: T/R -0.16% 1.20% 1.21% Annoyance: T/R/Rng -0.16% 1.30% 1.21% Befuddling Aura: A/C/R -0.16% 0.40% 1.21% 0.90% 2.70% 3.76% Befuddling Aura: A/E -0.16% 0.30% 1.21% Befuddling Aura: A/R -0.16% 0.90% 1.21% Befuddling Aura: C/R -0.16% 0.40% 1.21% Befuddling Aura: E/C -0.16% 0.70% 1.21% Bonesnap: A/D -0.16% 1.10% 1.21% 0.90% 2.20% 3.76% Bonesnap: A/R -0.16% 0.50% 1.21% Bonesnap: D/E -0.16% 0.60% 1.21% Brilliant Leadership: A -0.16% 0.50% 1.21% 0.90% 2.90% 3.76% Brilliant Leadership: A/D -0.16% 0.80% 1.21% Brilliant Leadership: A/D/E -0.16% 0.40% 1.21% Brilliant Leadership: A/E -0.16% 0.40% 1.21% Brilliant Leadership: D -0.16% 0.40% 1.21% Brilliant Leadership: D/E -0.16% 0.40% 1.21% Bruising Blow: A/D -0.16% 1.10% 1.21% 0.90% 2.90% 3.76% Bruising Blow: D/E -0.16% 1.00% 1.21% Bruising Blow: D/R -0.16% 0.80% 1.21% Cacophony: A/R Calibrated Accuracy: A/D -0.16% 0.20% 1.21% 0.90% 2.00% 3.76% Calibrated Accuracy: A/D/R -0.16% 0.60% 1.21% Calibrated Accuracy: A/E -0.16% 0.20% 1.21% Calibrated Accuracy: A/I -0.16% 0.60% 1.21% Calibrated Accuracy: A/Rng -0.16% 0.40% 1.21% Calibrated Accuracy: A/R -0.16% 0.00% 1.21% Cleaving Blow: A/D Cleaving Blow: A/R Cleaving Blow: D/E Cleaving Blow: D/R Commanding Presence: A/D Curtail Speed: A/E -0.16% 0.70% 1.21% 0.90% 2.10% 3.76% Curtail Speed: A/S -0.16% 0.80% 1.21% Curtail Speed: D/S -0.16% 0.20% 1.21% Curtail Speed: E/R/S -0.16% 0.30% 1.21% Curtail Speed: Rng/S -0.16% 0.10% 1.21% Debilitative Action: A/R Deflated Ego: THD Detonation: A/D -0.16% 0.30% 1.21% 0.90% 2.20% 3.76% Detonation: A/D/E -0.16% 0.10% 1.21% Detonation: D/E -0.16% 0.60% 1.21% Detonation: D/E/Rng -0.16% 0.40% 1.21% Detonation: D/Rng -0.16% 0.50% 1.21% Detonation: D/R -0.16% 0.30% 1.21% Discouraging Words: THD -0.16% 1.00% 1.21% 0.90% 2.60% 3.76% Discouraging Words: THD/R -0.16% 0.70% 1.21% Discouraging Words: THD/R/E -0.16% 0.90% 1.21% Edict of the Master: A/D Encouraged Accuracy: THB -0.16% 0.70% 1.21% 0.90% 2.00% 3.76% Encouraged Accuracy: THB/R -0.16% 0.50% 1.21% Encouraged Accuracy: THB/R/E -0.16% 0.80% 1.21% Energy Manipulator: EM Enfeebled Operation: A/E -0.16% 0.40% 1.21% 0.90% 2.20% 3.76% Enfeebled Operation: A/I -0.16% 0.30% 1.21% Enfeebled Operation: A/I/R -0.16% 0.20% 1.21% Enfeebled Operation: A/R -0.16% 0.30% 1.21% Enfeebled Operation: E/I -0.16% 0.60% 1.21% Enfeebled Operation: I/Rng -0.16% 0.40% 1.21% Entropic Chaos: A/D Essence of Curare: A/E -0.16% 0.40% 1.21% 0.90% 2.20% 3.76% Essence of Curare: A/H -0.16% 0.70% 1.21% Essence of Curare: A/H/R -0.16% 0.40% 1.21% Essence of Curare: A/R -0.16% 0.30% 1.21% Essence of Curare: E/H -0.16% 0.30% 1.21% Essence of Curare: H/Rng -0.16% 0.10% 1.21% Exploit Weakness: A/D -0.16% 0.50% 1.21% 0.90% 2.60% 3.76% Exploit Weakness: D/E -0.16% 0.40% 1.21% Exploit Weakness: D/Rng -0.16% 0.70% 1.21% Exploit Weakness: D/R -0.16% 1.00% 1.21% Exploited Vulnerability: DD -0.16% 1.10% 1.21% 0.90% 2.50% 3.76% Exploited Vulnerability: DD/R -0.16% 0.80% 1.21% Exploited Vulnerability: DD/R/E -0.16% 0.60% 1.21% Explosive Strike: KB/D Far Strike: A/E -0.16% 0.50% 1.21% 0.90% 2.00% 3.76% Far Strike: D/Rng -0.16% 0.90% 1.21% Far Strike: D/R -0.16% 0.60% 1.21% Gift of the Ancients: D/E Harmonized Healing: E -0.16% 0.50% 1.21% 0.90% 2.20% 3.76% Harmonized Healing: E/R -0.16% 0.10% 1.21% Harmonized Healing: H/A -0.16% 0.50% 1.21% Harmonized Healing: H/A/E -0.16% 0.50% 1.21% Harmonized Healing: H/A/E/R -0.16% 0.00% 1.21% Harmonized Healing: H/A/R -0.16% 0.60% 1.21% Hibernation: A/E -0.16% 0.90% 1.21% 0.90% 3.00% 3.76% Hibernation: A/R -0.16% 0.70% 1.21% Hibernation: A/S/R -0.16% 0.60% 1.21% Hibernation: E/S -0.16% 0.30% 1.21% Hibernation: S/Rng -0.16% 0.50% 1.21% Horror: A/E -0.16% 0.50% 1.21% 0.90% 2.40% 3.76% Horror: A/F/R -0.16% 0.50% 1.21% Horror: A/R -0.16% 0.70% 1.21% Horror: E/F -0.16% 0.30% 1.21% Horror: F/Rng -0.16% 0.40% 1.21% Impeded Swiftness: A/S Impervious Skin: R/E Impervium Armor: R/E Induced Coma: A/R Jaunt: E -0.16% 0.70% 1.21% 0.90% 2.10% 3.76% Jaunt: E/Rng -0.16% 0.70% 1.21% Jaunt: Rng -0.16% 0.70% 1.21% Karma: D/E -0.16% 0.80% 1.21% 0.90% 1.60% 3.76% Karma: D/R -0.16% 0.40% 1.21% Karma: KB Prot -0.16% 0.40% 1.21% Kinetic Combat: A/D Kismet: D/E Lethargic Repose: A/E -0.16% 0.50% 1.21% 0.90% 2.00% 3.76% Lethargic Repose: A/R -0.16% 0.20% 1.21% Lethargic Repose: A/S -0.16% 0.20% 1.21% Lethargic Repose: A/S/R -0.16% 0.40% 1.21% Lethargic Repose: E/S -0.16% 0.30% 1.21% Lethargic Repose: S/Rng -0.16% 0.40% 1.21% Maelstrom's Fury: A/D -0.16% 0.80% 1.21% 0.90% 2.70% 3.76% Maelstrom's Fury: D/E -0.16% 0.60% 1.21% Maelstrom's Fury: D/E/R -0.16% 0.40% 1.21% Maelstrom's Fury: D/R -0.16% 0.90% 1.21% Miracle: H/A/E Multi-Strike: A/D -0.16% 0.50% 1.21% 0.90% 2.00% 3.76% Multi-Strike: A/D/E -0.16% 0.40% 1.21% Multi-Strike: A/E -0.16% 0.20% 1.21% Multi-Strike: D/E -0.16% 0.50% 1.21% Multi-Strike: D/E/R -0.16% 0.20% 1.21% Multi-Strike: D/R -0.16% 0.20% 1.21% Neuronic Shutdown: A/R Nightmare: A/E -0.16% 0.60% 1.21% 0.90% 2.20% 3.76% Nightmare: A/F -0.16% 0.50% 1.21% Nightmare: A/F/R -0.16% 0.10% 1.21% Nightmare: A/R -0.16% 0.60% 1.21% Nightmare: E/F -0.16% 0.00% 1.21% Nightmare: F/Rng -0.16% 0.40% 1.21% Paralytic: A/E -0.16% 0.50% 1.21% 0.90% 2.20% 3.76% Paralytic: A/H/R -0.16% 0.50% 1.21% Paralytic: A/R -0.16% 0.40% 1.21% Paralytic: E/H -0.16% 0.40% 1.21% Paralytic: H/Rng -0.16% 0.40% 1.21% Perplex: A/C/R -0.16% 0.60% 1.21% 0.90% 2.80% 3.76% Perplex: A/E -0.16% 0.50% 1.21% Perplex: A/R -0.16% 0.50% 1.21% Perplex: C/Rng -0.16% 0.20% 1.21% Perplex: E/C -0.16% 0.60% 1.21% Perplex: R/C -0.16% 0.40% 1.21% Pounding Slugfest: A/D Pulverizing Fisticuffs: A/D Quickfoot: E -0.16% 0.90% 1.21% 0.90% 2.60% 3.76% Quickfoot: E/Run -0.16% 0.50% 1.21% Quickfoot: Run -0.16% 1.20% 1.21% Razzle Dazzle: A/R Reactive Armor: E -0.16% 0.40% 1.21% 0.90% 2.30% 3.76% Reactive Armor: E/R -0.16% 0.40% 1.21% Reactive Armor: R -0.16% 0.10% 1.21% Reactive Armor: R/E -0.16% 0.80% 1.21% Reactive Armor: R/E/R -0.16% 0.20% 1.21% Reactive Armor: R/R -0.16% 0.40% 1.21% Rectified Reticle: THB Regenerative Tissue: H/A/E Rooting Grasp: A/E -0.16% 0.40% 1.21% 0.90% 2.40% 3.76% Rooting Grasp: A/I/R -0.16% 0.20% 1.21% Rooting Grasp: A/R -0.16% 0.60% 1.21% Rooting Grasp: E/I -0.16% 0.30% 1.21% Rooting Grasp: I/Rng -0.16% 0.90% 1.21% Rope a Dope: A/E -0.16% 0.70% 1.21% 0.90% 2.60% 3.76% Rope A Dope: A/R -0.16% 0.50% 1.21% Rope A Dope: A/S -0.16% 0.40% 1.21% Rope A Dope: A/S/R -0.16% 0.20% 1.21% Rope A Dope: E/S -0.16% 0.50% 1.21% Rope A Dope: S/Rng -0.16% 0.30% 1.21% Salvo: A/D Serendipity: D -0.16% 0.30% 1.21% 0.90% 1.00% 3.76% Serendipity: D/E -0.16% 0.10% 1.21% Serendipity: D/E/R -0.16% 0.00% 1.21% Serendipity: D/R -0.16% 0.10% 1.21% Serendipity: E -0.16% 0.20% 1.21% Serendipity: E/R -0.16% 0.30% 1.21% Smashing Haymaker: A/D -0.16% 0.40% 1.21% 0.90% 1.90% 3.76% Smashing Haymaker: D/E -0.16% 0.70% 1.21% Smashing Haymaker: D/E/R -0.16% 0.50% 1.21% Smashing Haymaker: D/R -0.16% 0.30% 1.21% Soaring: E -0.16% 1.00% 1.21% 0.90% 2.30% 3.76% Soaring: E/Fly -0.16% 0.70% 1.21% Soaring: Fly -0.16% 0.60% 1.21% Springfoot: E -0.16% 1.00% 1.21% 0.90% 2.60% 3.76% Springfoot: E/Jump -0.16% 0.70% 1.21% Springfoot: Jump -0.16% 0.90% 1.21% Stagger: A/E -0.16% 0.30% 1.21% 0.90% 2.70% 3.76% Stagger: A/R -0.16% 0.60% 1.21% Stagger: A/S/R -0.16% 0.40% 1.21% Stagger: E/S -0.16% 0.70% 1.21% Stagger: S/Rng -0.16% 0.70% 1.21% Steadfast Protection: KB Prot -0.16% 0.80% 1.21% 0.90% 2.50% 3.76% Steadfast Protection: R/Def -0.16% 0.70% 1.21% Steadfast Protection: R/E -0.16% 1.00% 1.21% Tempered Readiness: A/D/S -0.16% 0.40% 1.21% 0.90% 2.40% 3.76% Tempered Readiness: A/E -0.16% 0.30% 1.21% Tempered Readiness: A/S -0.16% 0.40% 1.21% Tempered Readiness: D/S -0.16% 0.40% 1.21% Tempered Readiness: E/R/S -0.16% 0.60% 1.21% Tempered Readiness: Rng/S -0.16% 0.30% 1.21% Tempest: A/D Triage: E/R -0.16% 0.70% 1.21% 0.90% 2.30% 3.76% Triage: H/A/E -0.16% 0.60% 1.21% Triage: H/A/E/R -0.16% 0.50% 1.21% Triage: H/A/R -0.16% 0.50% 1.21% Triumphant Insult: T Unquestioning Loyalty: A/D -0.16% 0.60% 1.21% 0.90% 2.10% 3.76% Unquestioning Loyalty: A/D/E -0.16% 0.40% 1.21% Unquestioning Loyalty: A/E -0.16% 0.50% 1.21% Unquestioning Loyalty: D/E -0.16% 0.60% 1.21% Unspeakable Terror: A/R Volley Fire: A/D -0.16% 0.60% 1.21% 0.90% 1.80% 3.76% Volley Fire: D/E -0.16% 0.40% 1.21% Volley Fire: D/R -0.16% 0.80% 1.21% Volley of Velocity: KB/A -0.16% 0.80% 1.21% 0.90% 2.00% 3.76% Volley of Velocity: KB/D -0.16% 0.50% 1.21% Volley of Velocity: KB/R -0.16% 0.70% 1.21% So what did I learn? First of all, the “uncommon rares” I mentioned before never came up. The odds of that happening by chance are pretty close to zero, so I feel confident in saying that you cannot get an uncommon rare by converting an uncommon by rarity. This makes sense, because then you could convert an uncommon by rarity, get a uncommon rare, then convert that by rarity to get another rare. Second, I’m leaning towards the second scenario I listed in my first post, i.e., the RNG selects a set first, then selects an IO within the set. In the 2-SD spoiler above, the spreadsheet shows what the actual percentage was and what an expected band would be above and below. I did this for both the “Select by IO” scenario and the “Select by Set” scenario. We can see there are 18 outliers in the former scenario, but only one in the second (Serendipity!). We would expect some outliers, but 18/191 is well over the 5% error rate we should expect. The 3-SD spoiler has two outliers for the “Select by IO” scenario and none for the “Select by Set) scenario. Exciting stuff, huh? Wait until you see what I did for Part II! 2 Who run Bartertown?
Andreah Posted October 31, 2020 Posted October 31, 2020 5 hours ago, Yomo Kimyata said: Second, I’m leaning towards the second scenario I listed in my first post, i.e., the RNG selects a set first, then selects an IO within the set. If I understood what you did, you should find that the distribution of outcomes by set passes a Chi-Squared test to some level of significance, as should the number of outcomes within each set. And the distribution of outcomes by all possible IO's should fail it. The latter test will be difficult, since there are so many possible outcomes, even with 500 or 1000 trials, you'll have low sample counts per IO. Each individual set's outcome should be distributed in a binomial distribution with a rate parameter equal to 1/N, for N being the number of valid, equally-likely sets that could be drawn. 2
Yomo Kimyata Posted November 4, 2020 Author Posted November 4, 2020 You are totally right, I believe. A chi-squared test would be the proper way to test if *all* the results are simultaneously uniform and significant, i.e. every non-Crushing Impact IO comes up 1/191 of the the time, or that every non-Crushing Impact set comes up 1/43 of the time. I didn't use a chi-squared test because, as you say it needs a bigger data set, but more importantly, I had forgotten about it entirely until you mentioned it. I'll be honest, my statistics are like my Joes: sloppy. What I was trying to do in a real short-cut was to look at *each* individual IO or set *separately* and run a z-test (I should be able to use a z-test rather than a t-test since p*n and (1-p)*n are both over 5 and therefore normally distributed). By putting up 95% and 99% bands around the speculated population proportion of 1/191 or 1/43, a result that falls in that band will pass a significance test. That won't prove that one possibility is right or wrong, but it gives me enough information to make a ham-handed guess. But, again, I'm a sloppy sloppy statistician and I would be pleased as punch if anyone wanted the data to do it up right! I'll be sharing the spreadsheet at the end. I've been very busy the past week or two, but hopefully Part II comes later today. Who run Bartertown?
Mr. Vee Posted November 4, 2020 Posted November 4, 2020 The statistics are neat but i'd also like some lies and damned lies if possible. 1
Ukase Posted November 5, 2020 Posted November 5, 2020 2 hours ago, Veelectric Boogaloo said: The statistics are neat but i'd also like some lies and damned lies if possible. In the proper (or improper, depending on your perspective) hands, lies and statistics are the same.
Yomo Kimyata Posted November 5, 2020 Author Posted November 5, 2020 I'll try to give Samuel Clemens some of those lies he's looking for. Who run Bartertown?
Ura Hero Posted November 5, 2020 Posted November 5, 2020 16 hours ago, Yomo Kimyata said: But, again, I'm a sloppy sloppy statistician and I would be pleased as punch if anyone wanted the data to do it up right! I'll be sharing the spreadsheet at the end. 79% of all statistics are made up on the spot.
Hardship Posted November 5, 2020 Posted November 5, 2020 6 hours ago, Ura Hero said: 79% of all statistics are made up on the spot. Newer statistics show that it is closer to 84%.
Yomo Kimyata Posted November 6, 2020 Author Posted November 6, 2020 (edited) Part II: The Winnowing So we’ve taken a look at the random number generator, and I for one can’t take anything conclusive out of it. Part of me was hoping to see that we would see statistically significant evidence that there *is* a systemic bias built into the conversion-by-rarity machine, but it’s not there. So now that I’ve wasted all this time and effort on this, let’s try to make some inf! This is the Market forum, after all. It’s all fun and games to have 14 Adrenal Adjustment EM/R, but that’s not going to put my characters through school, so I needed to start figuring out how to monetize them and other IOs. My next set was to transform every one of the uncommon IOs into something that is either saleable, or is easily transformable into something that is saleable. In my case, that meant rolling and re-rolling each IO until I got one of the following sets: Adrenal Adjustment; Annoyance; Discouraging Words; Encourage Accuracy; Essence of Curare; Exploited Vulnerability; Harmonized Healing; Jaunt; Karma; Paralytic; Quickfoot; Reactive Armor; Serendipity; Soaring; Springfoot; Steadfast Protection; Triage; and Volley of Velocity. These 18 sets (out of the 44 unique uncommon sets available at level 20) are valuable to me for one of several reasons: they are valuable in and of themselves; they can be easily changed into something valuable; they can be automatically be converted into a rare through one conversion-by-category; or they can easily (not automatically though) be converted into a rare through a few conversions-by-rarity and are in a lucrative category. Here are the results within a 2-standard deviation band: Spoiler By IO By Set p 1.538% 5.882% p(1-p) 1.563% 5.536% n 1000 1000 SE 0.395% 0.744% -2 By IO 2 -2 By Set 2 * sigma result * sigma * sigma result * sigma Achilles' Heel: DD Adrenal Adjustment: EM 0.75% 1.80% 2.33% 4.39% 7.30% 7.37% Adrenal Adjustment: EM/R 0.75% 3.20% 2.33% Adrenal Adjustment: EM/R/A 0.75% 2.30% 2.33% Air Burst: A/D Air Burst: D/E Air Burst: D/Rng Air Burst: D/R Annoyance: T 0.75% 2.80% 2.33% 4.39% 7.10% 7.37% Annoyance: T/R 0.75% 1.90% 2.33% Annoyance: T/R/Rng 0.75% 2.40% 2.33% Befuddling Aura: A/C/R Befuddling Aura: A/E Befuddling Aura: A/R Befuddling Aura: C/R Befuddling Aura: E/C Bonesnap: A/D Bonesnap: A/R Bonesnap: D/E Brilliant Leadership: A Brilliant Leadership: A/D Brilliant Leadership: A/D/E Brilliant Leadership: A/E Brilliant Leadership: D Brilliant Leadership: D/E Bruising Blow: A/D Bruising Blow: D/E Bruising Blow: D/R Cacophony: A/R Calibrated Accuracy: A/D Calibrated Accuracy: A/D/R Calibrated Accuracy: A/E Calibrated Accuracy: A/I Calibrated Accuracy: A/Rng Calibrated Accuracy: A/R Cleaving Blow: A/D Cleaving Blow: A/R Cleaving Blow: D/E Cleaving Blow: D/R Commanding Presence: A/D Curtail Speed: A/E Curtail Speed: A/S Curtail Speed: D/S Curtail Speed: E/R/S Curtail Speed: Rng/S Debilitative Action: A/R Deflated Ego: THD Detonation: A/D Detonation: A/D/E Detonation: D/E Detonation: D/E/Rng Detonation: D/Rng Detonation: D/R Discouraging Words: THD 0.75% 1.90% 2.33% 4.39% 5.50% 7.37% Discouraging Words: THD/R 0.75% 1.70% 2.33% Discouraging Words: THD/R/E 0.75% 1.90% 2.33% Edict of the Master: A/D Encouraged Accuracy: THB 0.75% 1.90% 2.33% 4.39% 5.70% 7.37% Encouraged Accuracy: THB/R 0.75% 1.40% 2.33% Encouraged Accuracy: THB/R/E 0.75% 2.40% 2.33% Energy Manipulator: EM Enfeebled Operation: A/E Enfeebled Operation: A/I Enfeebled Operation: A/I/R Enfeebled Operation: A/R Enfeebled Operation: E/I Enfeebled Operation: I/Rng Entropic Chaos: A/D Essence of Curare: A/E 0.75% 1.20% 2.33% 4.39% 6.10% 7.37% Essence of Curare: A/H 0.75% 1.20% 2.33% Essence of Curare: A/H/R 0.75% 0.60% 2.33% Essence of Curare: A/R 0.75% 1.10% 2.33% Essence of Curare: E/H 0.75% 0.90% 2.33% Essence of Curare: H/Rng 0.75% 1.10% 2.33% Exploit Weakness: A/D Exploit Weakness: D/E Exploit Weakness: D/Rng Exploit Weakness: D/R Exploited Vulnerability: DD 0.75% 1.90% 2.33% 4.39% 4.90% 7.37% Exploited Vulnerability: DD/R 0.75% 1.40% 2.33% Exploited Vulnerability: DD/R/E 0.75% 1.60% 2.33% Explosive Strike: KB/D Far Strike: A/E Far Strike: D/Rng Far Strike: D/R Gift of the Ancients: D/E Harmonized Healing: E 0.75% 0.80% 2.33% 4.39% 5.10% 7.37% Harmonized Healing: E/R 0.75% 0.30% 2.33% Harmonized Healing: H/A 0.75% 0.80% 2.33% Harmonized Healing: H/A/E 0.75% 1.20% 2.33% Harmonized Healing: H/A/E/R 0.75% 0.80% 2.33% Harmonized Healing: H/A/R 0.75% 1.20% 2.33% Hibernation: A/E Hibernation: A/R Hibernation: A/S/R Hibernation: E/S Hibernation: S/Rng Horror: A/E Horror: A/F/R Horror: A/R Horror: E/F Horror: F/Rng Impeded Swiftness: A/S Impervious Skin: R/E Impervium Armor: R/E Induced Coma: A/R Jaunt: E 0.75% 1.50% 2.33% 4.39% 5.40% 7.37% Jaunt: E/Rng 0.75% 1.90% 2.33% Jaunt: Rng 0.75% 2.00% 2.33% Karma: D/E 0.75% 1.50% 2.33% 4.39% 4.50% 7.37% Karma: D/R 0.75% 1.90% 2.33% Karma: KB Prot 0.75% 1.10% 2.33% Kinetic Combat: A/D Kismet: D/E Lethargic Repose: A/E Lethargic Repose: A/R Lethargic Repose: A/S Lethargic Repose: A/S/R Lethargic Repose: E/S Lethargic Repose: S/Rng Maelstrom's Fury: A/D Maelstrom's Fury: D/E Maelstrom's Fury: D/E/R Maelstrom's Fury: D/R Miracle: H/A/E Multi-Strike: A/D Multi-Strike: A/D/E Multi-Strike: A/E Multi-Strike: D/E Multi-Strike: D/E/R Multi-Strike: D/R Neuronic Shutdown: A/R Nightmare: A/E Nightmare: A/F Nightmare: A/F/R Nightmare: A/R Nightmare: E/F Nightmare: F/Rng Paralytic: A/E 0.75% 1.70% 2.33% 4.39% 6.20% 7.37% Paralytic: A/H/R 0.75% 1.60% 2.33% Paralytic: A/R 0.75% 0.70% 2.33% Paralytic: E/H 0.75% 0.80% 2.33% Paralytic: H/Rng 0.75% 1.40% 2.33% Perplex: A/C/R Perplex: A/E Perplex: A/R Perplex: C/Rng Perplex: E/C Perplex: R/C Pounding Slugfest: A/D Pulverizing Fisticuffs: A/D Quickfoot: E 0.75% 2.30% 2.33% 4.39% 5.90% 7.37% Quickfoot: E/Run 0.75% 1.30% 2.33% Quickfoot: Run 0.75% 2.30% 2.33% Razzle Dazzle: A/R Reactive Armor: E 0.75% 1.10% 2.33% 4.39% 5.50% 7.37% Reactive Armor: E/R 0.75% 0.70% 2.33% Reactive Armor: R 0.75% 0.40% 2.33% Reactive Armor: R/E 0.75% 1.40% 2.33% Reactive Armor: R/E/R 0.75% 0.50% 2.33% Reactive Armor: R/R 0.75% 1.40% 2.33% Rectified Reticle: THB Regenerative Tissue: H/A/E Rooting Grasp: A/E Rooting Grasp: A/I/R Rooting Grasp: A/R Rooting Grasp: E/I Rooting Grasp: I/Rng Rope a Dope: A/E Rope A Dope: A/R Rope A Dope: A/S Rope A Dope: A/S/R Rope A Dope: E/S Rope A Dope: S/Rng Salvo: A/D Serendipity: D 0.75% 1.00% 2.33% 4.39% 3.70% 7.37% Serendipity: D/E 0.75% 0.60% 2.33% Serendipity: D/E/R 0.75% 0.60% 2.33% Serendipity: D/R 0.75% 0.30% 2.33% Serendipity: E 0.75% 0.40% 2.33% Serendipity: E/R 0.75% 0.80% 2.33% Smashing Haymaker: A/D Smashing Haymaker: D/E Smashing Haymaker: D/E/R Smashing Haymaker: D/R Soaring: E 0.75% 2.10% 2.33% 4.39% 5.70% 7.37% Soaring: E/Fly 0.75% 1.90% 2.33% Soaring: Fly 0.75% 1.70% 2.33% Springfoot: E 0.75% 2.10% 2.33% 4.39% 5.80% 7.37% Springfoot: E/Jump 0.75% 1.90% 2.33% Springfoot: Jump 0.75% 1.80% 2.33% Stagger: A/E Stagger: A/R Stagger: A/S/R Stagger: E/S Stagger: S/Rng Steadfast Protection: KB Prot 0.75% 2.50% 2.33% 4.39% 5.40% 7.37% Steadfast Protection: R/Def 0.75% 1.40% 2.33% Steadfast Protection: R/E 0.75% 1.50% 2.33% Tempered Readiness: A/D/S Tempered Readiness: A/E Tempered Readiness: A/S Tempered Readiness: D/S Tempered Readiness: E/R/S Tempered Readiness: Rng/S Tempest: A/D Triage: E/R 0.75% 1.30% 2.33% 4.39% 4.80% 7.37% Triage: H/A/E 0.75% 1.00% 2.33% Triage: H/A/E/R 0.75% 1.30% 2.33% Triage: H/A/R 0.75% 1.20% 2.33% Triumphant Insult: T Unquestioning Loyalty: A/D Unquestioning Loyalty: A/D/E Unquestioning Loyalty: A/E Unquestioning Loyalty: D/E Unspeakable Terror: A/R Volley Fire: A/D Volley Fire: D/E Volley Fire: D/R Volley of Velocity: KB/A 0.75% 2.20% 2.33% 4.39% 5.40% 7.37% Volley of Velocity: KB/D 0.75% 1.40% 2.33% Volley of Velocity: KB/R 0.75% 1.80% 2.33% And here are the results within a 3-standard deviation band: Spoiler By IO By Set p 1.538% 5.882% p(1-p) 1.563% 5.536% n 1000 1000 SE 0.395% 0.744% -3 By IO 3 -3 By Set 3 * sigma result * sigma * sigma result * sigma Achilles' Heel: DD Adrenal Adjustment: EM 0.35% 1.80% 2.72% 3.65% 7.30% 8.11% Adrenal Adjustment: EM/R 0.35% 3.20% 2.72% Adrenal Adjustment: EM/R/A 0.35% 2.30% 2.72% Air Burst: A/D Air Burst: D/E Air Burst: D/Rng Air Burst: D/R Annoyance: T 0.35% 2.80% 2.72% 3.65% 7.10% 8.11% Annoyance: T/R 0.35% 1.90% 2.72% Annoyance: T/R/Rng 0.35% 2.40% 2.72% Befuddling Aura: A/C/R Befuddling Aura: A/E Befuddling Aura: A/R Befuddling Aura: C/R Befuddling Aura: E/C Bonesnap: A/D Bonesnap: A/R Bonesnap: D/E Brilliant Leadership: A Brilliant Leadership: A/D Brilliant Leadership: A/D/E Brilliant Leadership: A/E Brilliant Leadership: D Brilliant Leadership: D/E Bruising Blow: A/D Bruising Blow: D/E Bruising Blow: D/R Cacophony: A/R Calibrated Accuracy: A/D Calibrated Accuracy: A/D/R Calibrated Accuracy: A/E Calibrated Accuracy: A/I Calibrated Accuracy: A/Rng Calibrated Accuracy: A/R Cleaving Blow: A/D Cleaving Blow: A/R Cleaving Blow: D/E Cleaving Blow: D/R Commanding Presence: A/D Curtail Speed: A/E Curtail Speed: A/S Curtail Speed: D/S Curtail Speed: E/R/S Curtail Speed: Rng/S Debilitative Action: A/R Deflated Ego: THD Detonation: A/D Detonation: A/D/E Detonation: D/E Detonation: D/E/Rng Detonation: D/Rng Detonation: D/R Discouraging Words: THD 0.35% 1.90% 2.72% 3.65% 5.50% 8.11% Discouraging Words: THD/R 0.35% 1.70% 2.72% Discouraging Words: THD/R/E 0.35% 1.90% 2.72% Edict of the Master: A/D Encouraged Accuracy: THB 0.35% 1.90% 2.72% 3.65% 5.70% 8.11% Encouraged Accuracy: THB/R 0.35% 1.40% 2.72% Encouraged Accuracy: THB/R/E 0.35% 2.40% 2.72% Energy Manipulator: EM Enfeebled Operation: A/E Enfeebled Operation: A/I Enfeebled Operation: A/I/R Enfeebled Operation: A/R Enfeebled Operation: E/I Enfeebled Operation: I/Rng Entropic Chaos: A/D Essence of Curare: A/E 0.35% 1.20% 2.72% 3.65% 6.10% 8.11% Essence of Curare: A/H 0.35% 1.20% 2.72% Essence of Curare: A/H/R 0.35% 0.60% 2.72% Essence of Curare: A/R 0.35% 1.10% 2.72% Essence of Curare: E/H 0.35% 0.90% 2.72% Essence of Curare: H/Rng 0.35% 1.10% 2.72% Exploit Weakness: A/D Exploit Weakness: D/E Exploit Weakness: D/Rng Exploit Weakness: D/R Exploited Vulnerability: DD 0.35% 1.90% 2.72% 3.65% 4.90% 8.11% Exploited Vulnerability: DD/R 0.35% 1.40% 2.72% Exploited Vulnerability: DD/R/E 0.35% 1.60% 2.72% Explosive Strike: KB/D Far Strike: A/E Far Strike: D/Rng Far Strike: D/R Gift of the Ancients: D/E Harmonized Healing: E 0.35% 0.80% 2.72% 3.65% 5.10% 8.11% Harmonized Healing: E/R 0.35% 0.30% 2.72% Harmonized Healing: H/A 0.35% 0.80% 2.72% Harmonized Healing: H/A/E 0.35% 1.20% 2.72% Harmonized Healing: H/A/E/R 0.35% 0.80% 2.72% Harmonized Healing: H/A/R 0.35% 1.20% 2.72% Hibernation: A/E Hibernation: A/R Hibernation: A/S/R Hibernation: E/S Hibernation: S/Rng Horror: A/E Horror: A/F/R Horror: A/R Horror: E/F Horror: F/Rng Impeded Swiftness: A/S Impervious Skin: R/E Impervium Armor: R/E Induced Coma: A/R Jaunt: E 0.35% 1.50% 2.72% 3.65% 5.40% 8.11% Jaunt: E/Rng 0.35% 1.90% 2.72% Jaunt: Rng 0.35% 2.00% 2.72% Karma: D/E 0.35% 1.50% 2.72% 3.65% 4.50% 8.11% Karma: D/R 0.35% 1.90% 2.72% Karma: KB Prot 0.35% 1.10% 2.72% Kinetic Combat: A/D Kismet: D/E Lethargic Repose: A/E Lethargic Repose: A/R Lethargic Repose: A/S Lethargic Repose: A/S/R Lethargic Repose: E/S Lethargic Repose: S/Rng Maelstrom's Fury: A/D Maelstrom's Fury: D/E Maelstrom's Fury: D/E/R Maelstrom's Fury: D/R Miracle: H/A/E Multi-Strike: A/D Multi-Strike: A/D/E Multi-Strike: A/E Multi-Strike: D/E Multi-Strike: D/E/R Multi-Strike: D/R Neuronic Shutdown: A/R Nightmare: A/E Nightmare: A/F Nightmare: A/F/R Nightmare: A/R Nightmare: E/F Nightmare: F/Rng Paralytic: A/E 0.35% 1.70% 2.72% 3.65% 6.20% 8.11% Paralytic: A/H/R 0.35% 1.60% 2.72% Paralytic: A/R 0.35% 0.70% 2.72% Paralytic: E/H 0.35% 0.80% 2.72% Paralytic: H/Rng 0.35% 1.40% 2.72% Perplex: A/C/R Perplex: A/E Perplex: A/R Perplex: C/Rng Perplex: E/C Perplex: R/C Pounding Slugfest: A/D Pulverizing Fisticuffs: A/D Quickfoot: E 0.35% 2.30% 2.72% 3.65% 5.90% 8.11% Quickfoot: E/Run 0.35% 1.30% 2.72% Quickfoot: Run 0.35% 2.30% 2.72% Razzle Dazzle: A/R Reactive Armor: E 0.35% 1.10% 2.72% 3.65% 5.50% 8.11% Reactive Armor: E/R 0.35% 0.70% 2.72% Reactive Armor: R 0.35% 0.40% 2.72% Reactive Armor: R/E 0.35% 1.40% 2.72% Reactive Armor: R/E/R 0.35% 0.50% 2.72% Reactive Armor: R/R 0.35% 1.40% 2.72% Rectified Reticle: THB Regenerative Tissue: H/A/E Rooting Grasp: A/E Rooting Grasp: A/I/R Rooting Grasp: A/R Rooting Grasp: E/I Rooting Grasp: I/Rng Rope a Dope: A/E Rope A Dope: A/R Rope A Dope: A/S Rope A Dope: A/S/R Rope A Dope: E/S Rope A Dope: S/Rng Salvo: A/D Serendipity: D 0.35% 1.00% 2.72% 3.65% 3.70% 8.11% Serendipity: D/E 0.35% 0.60% 2.72% Serendipity: D/E/R 0.35% 0.60% 2.72% Serendipity: D/R 0.35% 0.30% 2.72% Serendipity: E 0.35% 0.40% 2.72% Serendipity: E/R 0.35% 0.80% 2.72% Smashing Haymaker: A/D Smashing Haymaker: D/E Smashing Haymaker: D/E/R Smashing Haymaker: D/R Soaring: E 0.35% 2.10% 2.72% 3.65% 5.70% 8.11% Soaring: E/Fly 0.35% 1.90% 2.72% Soaring: Fly 0.35% 1.70% 2.72% Springfoot: E 0.35% 2.10% 2.72% 3.65% 5.80% 8.11% Springfoot: E/Jump 0.35% 1.90% 2.72% Springfoot: Jump 0.35% 1.80% 2.72% Stagger: A/E Stagger: A/R Stagger: A/S/R Stagger: E/S Stagger: S/Rng Steadfast Protection: KB Prot 0.35% 2.50% 2.72% 3.65% 5.40% 8.11% Steadfast Protection: R/Def 0.35% 1.40% 2.72% Steadfast Protection: R/E 0.35% 1.50% 2.72% Tempered Readiness: A/D/S Tempered Readiness: A/E Tempered Readiness: A/S Tempered Readiness: D/S Tempered Readiness: E/R/S Tempered Readiness: Rng/S Tempest: A/D Triage: E/R 0.35% 1.30% 2.72% 3.65% 4.80% 8.11% Triage: H/A/E 0.35% 1.00% 2.72% Triage: H/A/E/R 0.35% 1.30% 2.72% Triage: H/A/R 0.35% 1.20% 2.72% Triumphant Insult: T Unquestioning Loyalty: A/D Unquestioning Loyalty: A/D/E Unquestioning Loyalty: A/E Unquestioning Loyalty: D/E Unspeakable Terror: A/R Volley Fire: A/D Volley Fire: D/E Volley Fire: D/R Volley of Velocity: KB/A 0.35% 2.20% 2.72% 3.65% 5.40% 8.11% Volley of Velocity: KB/D 0.35% 1.40% 2.72% Volley of Velocity: KB/R 0.35% 1.80% 2.72% I did all these conversions in one sitting, and keep in mind that each category already had some entries from Part I (also one sitting). In theory, by rerolling until I got something that fit my criteria, it should still be an randomly distributed allocation. If you roll a die a thousand times and reroll every time you get a 5 or a 6, you should get a random distribution from 1 to 4 that should be roughly even. EDIT: I need to point out that the second distribution is really comprised of two different distributions: one of which (in theory) has a 1/43 chance for any given set, and one of which has a 1/18 chance for any given set. I really should account for that at some point. The distributions by individual IO, like in Part I, appear to be less randomly distributed than I would expect by chance. Like @Andreahsaid, I should run a chi-squared test, but then I would have to remember how to do that and also lament how my data set is too small. Distributions by set seem to be more feasible. Coming soon: Part III: Profit! Edited November 7, 2020 by Yomo Kimyata I made a boo boo. Who run Bartertown?
Yomo Kimyata Posted November 9, 2020 Author Posted November 9, 2020 PART III: Profit Now it’s just making sausage. Here’s what I did by IO set: Adrenal Adjustment: Convert once by category to get a rare Energy Manipulator. Rare roulette from there. Annoyance: Convert once by category to get a rare Triumphant Insult, then rare roulette. Discouraging Words: Convert once by category to get a rare Deflated Ego, then rare roulette. Encouraged Accuracy: Convert once by category to get a rare Rectified Reticle, then sell as is. Essence of Curare: Convert by category until rare Hold set. If Basilisk’s Gaze, reroll in set if it is the proc and sell as is otherwise. If Neuronic Shutdown proc, sell. Any other rare Hold, play rare roulette. Exploited Vulnerability: Convert once by category to get Achilles’ Heel, then convert in set to the proc. Harmonized Healing: Convert by category until rare Healing set. If Miracle, reroll in set until the proc. If Regenerative Tissue proc, sell as is; rare roulette with any other Regenerative Tissue. Sell any Preventative Medicine as is. Jaunt: Convert once by category to TimeSpace Manipulation, then rare roulette. Karma: Sell as is. Paralytic: See Essence of Curare. Quickfoot: Convert once to Celerity. If Stealth, sell, otherwise rare roulette. Reactive Armor: Sell as is. Serendipity: Sell as is. Soaring/Springfoot: Convert once to rare, then rare roulette. Steadfast Protection: Convert to Res/Def, then sell. Triage: See Harmonized Healing. Volley of Velocity: Convert once to Explosive Strike and sell. I am not going to get into specifics, but I ended up selling a not-insignificant portion of these IOs to myself. I can’t really consider it self-dealing, since I paid the same prices I would (and do) ay to anyone else. However, I did have the advantage on several items to know that I already had a minimum bid out there. So, how did I do? Well, I used a total of 7,672 converters (1,000 used in Part I, and I forgot to break down the split between Parts II and III) and sold the remainder at a net price at or above where I bought them. So initial investment was 712,665,000 and net inf at the end was 2,444,985,675 for a net profit of 1,732,320,675. At first, I was disappointed, since it was short of my shortcut estimate of 2mm profit per IO, then I realized that since I was also the end buyer on a large portion of these, I certainly could have hit my bogey if I had offered at higher prices rather than hitting my own lowball bid. Also, since those repurchases are all being remade into higher priced items, Team Yomo is definitely making out like a bandit here. I hope some of you found this interesting. If anyone cares, here is the spreadsheet in Excel form. Happy hunting! Cleaving Blow.xlsx 3 2 Who run Bartertown?
Ura Hero Posted December 2, 2020 Posted December 2, 2020 (edited) Since @Faultlinewas willing to divulge the Winter pack drop breakdown, I was wondering if converting enhancements has a similar weighting scheme? Edited December 2, 2020 by Ura Hero
City Council Faultline Posted December 2, 2020 City Council Posted December 2, 2020 42 minutes ago, Ura Hero said: Since @Faultlinewas willing to divulge the Winter pack drop breakdown, I was wondering if converting enhancements has a similar weighting scheme? They do not, to my knowledge. Each set has a list of ConversionGroups it belongs to and there's nothing I see that would allow some sets to be weighted more than others. 3 2
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