Predictions and Prognostications

[Yomo Kimyata]

I'm just curious as to what people think and wanted to start a new thread rather than derail another one.  I'm choosing August 1 completely arbitrarily.  What's your opinion and why?

[Adeon Hawkwood]

I'm leaning towards unchanged unless the devs make major changes to the economy. In general the market on live was pretty stable, it was slightly inflationary but major shifts in pricing tended to only happen when the devs changed something that affected the economy (new methods of farming, alternate rewards, changes to set bonuses etc.).

 

Homecoming has been out long enough that there's a pretty decent pool of level 50s supplying the market. For the most part prices seem to have stabilized so unless something radically changes the rate at which inf and stuff are being generated I'm not predicting major shifts.

[justicebeliever]

Ha - we already started to derail that other thread!  But I guess this might keep it from going farther!

 

https://forums.homecomingservers.com/index.php/topic,5185.msg47426.html#msg47426

 

I also feel that over the long term, prices on almost everything are going to go down.

True.  However, one of CoH's strengths is the ability to have basically unlimited alts.  Once a character is leveled to 50 and gets fully slotted, that character doesn't need further enhancements.  However, when the player starts leveling a different character, they are back on the market purchasing enhancements (funded with earnings from their previous character).  That helps keep demand up, which keeps prices from falling too far.

 

As more and more wealth is created, especially by players using this guide, prices will start to fall, because the demand will drop (people using this guide know how to get rare's for cheap, and won't pay inflated prices for them) and supply for the rares will increase.  There won't be a steady supply of new players to fuel the market...

 

I'm not being negative about this guide (which is awesome), or players who engage in "flipping" (because who could say anything negative about Shinobu), just realistic that it's an economy subject to the same forces of supply and demand as any other...

[Adeon Hawkwood]

As more and more wealth is created, especially by players using this guide, prices will start to fall, because the demand will drop (people using this guide know how to get rare's for cheap, and won't pay inflated prices for them) and supply for the rares will increase.  There won't be a steady supply of new players to fuel the market...

 

I'm not being negative about this guide (which is awesome), or players who engage in "flipping" (because who could say anything negative about Shinobu), just realistic that it's an economy subject to the same forces of supply and demand as any other...

The counterpoint to that is that as profits drop people will stop marketing in a niche or stop marketing entirely and switch to farming. For example early in the game's lifecycle I was converting PBAoEs but as more people moved into that niche the profit margins dropped and I moved to a different area.

 

Converting enhancements is a relatively time-intensive form of marketeering so as profit margins drop people will stop doing it until the market stabilizes.

[justicebeliever]

As more and more wealth is created, especially by players using this guide, prices will start to fall, because the demand will drop (people using this guide know how to get rare's for cheap, and won't pay inflated prices for them) and supply for the rares will increase.  There won't be a steady supply of new players to fuel the market...

 

I'm not being negative about this guide (which is awesome), or players who engage in "flipping" (because who could say anything negative about Shinobu), just realistic that it's an economy subject to the same forces of supply and demand as any other...

The counterpoint to that is that as profits drop people will stop marketing in a niche or stop marketing entirely and switch to farming. For example early in the game's lifecycle I was converting PBAoEs but as more people moved into that niche the profit margins dropped and I moved to a different area.

 

Converting enhancements is a relatively time-intensive form of marketeering so as profit margins drop people will stop doing it until the market stabilizes.

 

That's a really good counterpoint...can I change my vote?  +1 Inf Adeon

 

EDIT:  I cannot change my vote...someone else who was going to vote lower, please vote "Unchanged" so my vote still counts.  Or else I be a perma haten this thread...

 

COMMENT ON EDIT:  I'm really not worried about changing my vote...and no perma haten here...

[DSorrow]

I'd expect them to be relatively unchanged. My expectation is that things will move towards an equilibrium where:

 

• 50-60 merits roughly equal one hour of efficient influence farming
  
• Very rare items will then have a roughly equal price in merits and inf
  
• For other items, market prices will be determined by the going rate of some high demand items such as LotG +Rech, lower demand items will see a price gap that is relative to the amount of average conversions required to make it into a high ticket item
  
• All prices will include a premium up to the cost of an enhancement catalyst for the free attunement the market gives us
  

 

Things could end up differently, but this is what I'd expect to see and pretty much where we are now. Very rare items like purples will maybe see a bit of an uptick in price as we get more 50s and demand increases.

[Bionic_Flea]

I predict that prices on most items will rise slightly as more people will have money to spend and learn how to use the market and converters.

 

However, the most expensive items (purples, ATOs, WinterOs) will go down in price as their supply will increase.

[justicebeliever]

I predict that prices on most items will rise slightly as more people will have money to spend and learn how to use the market and converters.

 

However, the most expensive items (purples, ATOs, WinterOs) will go down in price as their supply will increase.

 

The challenge on this is that the same people who are getting boatloads to spend are more and more frequently doing so using the market and converters...

 

So if I know I can craft an enhancement for 50K and then sell it for 2.5M using converters, I can tell you what I likely WON'T do...spend 2.5M for an enhancement I can make myself for 50K...

[Shinobu]

I predict that prices on most items will rise slightly as more people will have money to spend and learn how to use the market and converters.

 

However, the most expensive items (purples, ATOs, WinterOs) will go down in price as their supply will increase.

 

i don't think Winter O's will drop in price, or ATOs, until a different method of getting them appears.  If you have to spend 10 million or 25 million per pack to get them, that limits how much you might want to sell them for, or at least limits the number of people who would want to sell them for a loss at any given point.

 

If at any point these were to be added to the drop pool... or if the super packs were added to some sort of reward pool... that changes everything because stuff that you get "for free" is stuff people are willing to dump on the market for whatever they can get at that moment.

 

As for the rest of the market... There are a lot of rare IOs going for 1 million to 1.5 million right now, and that's near the limit of what I'm willing to craft and convert for.  I've already seen the market reach that point once, and it bounced back a bit as people stopped listing product for sale.  I think it will do so again, and then we'll get another influx of supply.

 

I also don't particularly agree that, just because people learn to make money on the market, they're also more careful bidders when it comes to IOing their own characters.  Certain people will always pay the buy it now price because they want it right now, and that often includes people who made their money by being more careful on the market to start with.  :P

[Adeon Hawkwood]

I also don't particularly agree that, just because people learn to make money on the market, they're also more careful bidders when it comes to IOing their own characters.  Certain people will always pay the buy it now price because they want it right now, and that often includes people who made their money by being more careful on the market to start with.  :P

Definitely. I tend to pay BUY IT NAO prices when I'm buying IOs because I can afford to do so. I'm more conservative when I'm buying stuff to convert and sell but I've got enough inf in the bank that I can afford to pay a premium when I'm actually buying IOs for my characters.

[justicebeliever]

I also don't particularly agree that, just because people learn to make money on the market, they're also more careful bidders when it comes to IOing their own characters.  Certain people will always pay the buy it now price because they want it right now, and that often includes people who made their money by being more careful on the market to start with.  :P

Definitely. I tend to pay BUY IT NAO prices when I'm buying IOs because I can afford to do so. I'm more conservative when I'm buying stuff to convert and sell but I've got enough inf in the bank that I can afford to pay a premium when I'm actually buying IOs for my characters.

 

Man, I must be stingy as hell...Of course, I did make my kid give me his allowance money to craft some rares for him the other day...

[Yomo Kimyata]

I predict that over the next month, we will see two secular trends.  One:  people will spend more time on their 50s, either doing incarnate stuff, or farming.  Two:  people will become more aware how the market works.

 

The first trend leads to a lot of influence generated, but also a lot of uncommon/rare supply generated.  I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that mid-range things like rare enhancements will drop in value, while truly limited resource items like purples will increase in price.

 

 

I predict that prices on most items will rise slightly as more people will have money to spend and learn how to use the market and converters.

 

However, the most expensive items (purples, ATOs, WinterOs) will go down in price as their supply will increase.

 

So kind of the opposite of this!

[hastened]

I went with lower, though I don't really know.  I've already seen significant deflation on several items (enhancement converters and rare salvage).  Those are the feedstock that go into transmuting random junk into whatever someone wants, which I feel is an indicator of general price decline (or rather, prices moving closer together, with the mean price of a typical high end build dropping).  That only really applies to stuff that can be converted from junk though, so I could see PVP, ATO and Winter IOs behaving differently.

 

I also do all my purchasing via buy it now (or sometimes, lowball buy it slowly over time), but tend not to make the IOs myself because I want everything attuned.  Due to the limited level ranges, its actually easier to make specific IOs by building them at specific levels (often 10 or 41) to avoid hitting the wrong set during cross set conversion.  Those then go on the market to sell to people as attuned IOs, but I don't want them myself because they're level 41 or 10 for me.

 

I did try to buy a LotG from myself by having one character list a level 41 one at 5.5 million (I had just posted 40 of them, so had temporarily depressed the buy-it-now price down to this) while a second one placed a 5.5 million inf attuned version bid, but it didn't fill.  I'm not sure if I made a mistake in the process or if you just can't sell to yourself.

[Shinobu]

I did try to buy a LotG from myself by having one character list a level 41 one at 5.5 million (I had just posted 40 of them, so had temporarily depressed the buy-it-now price down to this) while a second one placed a 5.5 million inf attuned version bid, but it didn't fill.  I'm not sure if I made a mistake in the process or if you just can't sell to yourself.

 

I'm not actually sure either, but it might be worth experimenting with two different accounts to see if that makes a difference.  I have a second account strictly for PLing, with only two farmers on it and nothing else.  It might actually be worth having a second account that only has one market toon to try things like this, who knows? 

[Adeon Hawkwood]

I know that you can't have sell to the same character but I was under the impression that it was possible to sell to a different character on the same account. Prior to the implementation of emailing inf this was sometimes done as a method of transferring inf between characters without having to ask a friend.

[Yomo Kimyata]

You can definitely sell between two characters on the same account.  But generally I will bid at the low end for an attuned on the character who needs the item and offer at the high end with the character who has the non-attuned.  Generally I’m able to cross the trade within an hour (overnight at the worst) at a decent-to-very-decent profit.

[Yomo Kimyata]

I've been putting my money where my mouth is and have been winding down some of my more profitable crafting niches.  If I'm wrong, then I have opportunities to look forward to in August!

[Papaschtroumpf]

I didn't know you couldn't sell to yourself but that now exains why it didn't work the few times I tried.

[MunkiLord]

I also don't particularly agree that, just because people learn to make money on the market, they're also more careful bidders when it comes to IOing their own characters.  Certain people will always pay the buy it now price because they want it right now, and that often includes people who made their money by being more careful on the market to start with.  :P

Definitely. I tend to pay BUY IT NAO prices when I'm buying IOs because I can afford to do so. I'm more conservative when I'm buying stuff to convert and sell but I've got enough inf in the bank that I can afford to pay a premium when I'm actually buying IOs for my characters.

 

This is what I do as well.

[Yomo Kimyata]

Well, it's August 1.  How do you feel prices have changed over the last month or so, if at all, and where do you see them going by, say, the day after Labor Day (September 3)?

[dasefex]

Prices have been steady. Seems like the best time to sell is the weekends.

[Yomo Kimyata]

On 8/1/2019 at 3:48 PM, dasefex said:

Prices have been steady. Seems like the best time to sell is the weekends.

I agree with the second part, but my observation is that crafted IOs, with the exception of things like LOTG proc and Miracle proc, are lower to significantly lower.

[dasefex]

4 hours ago, Yomo Kimyata said:

I agree with the second part, but my observation is that crafted IOs, with the exception of things like LOTG proc and Miracle proc, are lower to significantly lower.

I guess your right mir proc is was never a go to for me. I did notice obliteration was down as well. expedient reinforcement was up on Thursday night. However I don’t see extreme changes in the market now. I would say you will see price fluctuations during the month of October while people are doing the Halloween event. 

 

Edited August 3, 2019 by dasefex

[MunkiLord]

On 8/3/2019 at 10:16 AM, Yomo Kimyata said:

I agree with the second part, but my observation is that crafted IOs, with the exception of things like LOTG proc and Miracle proc, are lower to significantly lower.

Miracle was lower for a while too, but not by much. I think there is a display bug now going on with Miracle, because 15-20 million is 3-4 times what it was selling for a month ago.

[ZemyaSoldat]

2 hours ago, MunkiLord said:

Miracle was lower for a while too, but not by much. I think there is a display bug now going on with Miracle, because 15-20 million is 3-4 times what it was selling for a month ago.

I *thought* I noticed that it had gone up a lot recently! I about choked when I went to finish the last of my builds for my 50s and saw the going price.