Is in-set conversion worth it?

[Hedgefund]

The "proper play" is simply 

 

E(IO on hand) + (cost of converter*) ~ 1 / (n-1) * (E(IO₁) + E(IO₂) ... E(IO_n-1))

 

If the left hand side of the"~" is > the right hand side, don't convert, if the right hand side > the left hand side, convert.  

 

E(IO_x) is just a shorthand for expected sale price of an IO set piece.

*As someone mentioned above, there is no such thing as a "free" converter, they all have an opportunity cost.

 

ETA - I didn't define "n" - which is the total number of pieces within a set.

 

Edited August 7, 2019 by Hedgefund

[_NOPE_]

[Yomo Kimyata]

On 8/7/2019 at 6:28 AM, Hedgefund said:

The "proper play" is simply 

 

E(IO on hand) + (cost of converter*) ~ 1 / (n-1) * (E(IO₁) + E(IO₂) ... E(IO_n-1))

 

If the left hand side of the"~" is > the right hand side, don't convert, if the right hand side > the left hand side, convert.  

 

E(IO_x) is just a shorthand for expected sale price of an IO set piece.

*As someone mentioned above, there is no such thing as a "free" converter, they all have an opportunity cost.

 

ETA - I didn't define "n" - which is the total number of pieces within a set.

 

This, of course, is completely true.  This is exactly how you would expect someone to approach it if it were their real-life job and for real money.

 

Despite it not being "optimal" behavior, however, I think that most people will do one of two things:

 

1. Convert in-set until you have what you want, or you run out of converters, or you run out of inf to buy more converters.

2. Don't mess with the in-set conversion process at all and be happy with what you got.

 

I've started using a rule of thumb:  if I think I can sell a particular piece of a set for more than 3mm more than the piece that I own, and if I can do this in bulk, I'll run the numbers.  Otherwise, it's all yours.

[Robotech_Master]

On 8/6/2019 at 7:44 PM, Yomo Kimyata said:

 

The plain convert versus the craft-and-convert.  All to be in the guide!

Oh, and another thing I just realized. If you're going to go with converting already-crafted Enhancements, you can also do it with already-attuned Enhancements.

 

Take a cheap Defense set like Serendipity, which you can get pre-crafted for a million a pop or less. Buy the Attuned version, convert in-category until you get it to Luck of the Gambler, then convert in-set until you get your Global Recharge. Then you've got yourself an Attuned LotG Global Recharge, which you can sell or use yourself, and it probably cost you less than spending 7 mil on it on the store.

Edited August 11, 2019 by Robotech_Master

[Yomo Kimyata]

I believe that it was Shinobu who discovered that attuned enhancements convert at the minimum level of the set.  So an attuned Serendipity, which runs from 15-40, will convert at level 15, which cannot convert into a LOTG (25-50).  Level 25-40 will work though.

 

Red Fortune and Reactive Defenses attuned will work as well.

[Robotech_Master]

4 hours ago, Yomo Kimyata said:

I believe that it was Shinobu who discovered that attuned enhancements convert at the minimum level of the set.  So an attuned Serendipity, which runs from 15-40, will convert at level 15, which cannot convert into a LOTG (25-50).  Level 25-40 will work though.

 

Red Fortune and Reactive Defenses attuned will work as well.

Well, perhaps it doesn't convert at one jump into LotG...but I can assure you, after several jumps, it does end up as one. I went and tried it again just now, and the conversions went

 

Serendipity -> Kismet -> Serendipity -> Red Fortune -> Reactive Defenses -> Luck of the Gambler.

(And it was even the Global Recharge LotG, yet.)

 

1 mil on the Serendipity plus 70K per converter = an Attuned LotG global recharge sitting in my tray for 1.7 million Inf spent on that conversion. Which I'm gonna save for a future alt, rather than selling. 🙂

 

 

[Yomo Kimyata]

8 minutes ago, Robotech_Master said:

Well, perhaps it doesn't convert at one jump into LotG...but I can assure you, after several jumps, it does end up as one. I went and tried it again just now, and the conversions went

 

Serendipity -> Kismet -> Serendipity -> Red Fortune -> Reactive Defenses -> Luck of the Gambler.

(And it was even the Global Recharge LotG, yet.)

 

1 mil on the Serendipity plus 70K per converter = an Attuned LotG global recharge sitting in my tray for 1.7 million Inf spent on that conversion. Which I'm gonna save for a future alt, rather than selling. 🙂

 

 

Fair enough!  Not the easiest or fastest route, but as long as you get where you want to go, that's good!

[Robotech_Master]

32 minutes ago, Yomo Kimyata said:

Fair enough!  Not the easiest or fastest route, but as long as you get where you want to go, that's good!

I will grant that it's not necessarily super-efficient, and depending on how much you get the Enhancement for and how many conversions it takes, the level 41 Reactive Defenses method may still be cheaper. But it's just so annoying that one can't really use any of the Enhancements one converts themself without selling it and then buying the same one Attuned. It's nice to be able to create something Attuned so you can use it yourself.

[Yomo Kimyata]

1 minute ago, Robotech_Master said:

I will grant that it's not necessarily super-efficient, and depending on how much you get the Enhancement for and how many conversions it takes, the level 41 Reactive Defenses method may still be cheaper. But it's just so annoying that one can't really use any of the Enhancements one converts themself without selling it and then buying the same one Attuned. It's nice to be able to create something Attuned so you can use it yourself.

True dat! 

[Robotech_Master]

Just tried another one that went right from Serendipity to Kismet to LotG (Def/End/Rech) in two hops, then took another two hops in-set to global recharge. So, another 1.7 million, another global recharge.

 

I wonder if @Shinobu is quite sure about that at-the-lowest-level thing. Kismet is 10-30, Luck of the Gambler is 25-50, so it seems that if it only converts at the set's lowest level, there's no way a Kismet should be able to become a LotG. They must surely be able to convert into anything where there's an overlap at all.

[Yomo Kimyata]

Hmm.  I haven’t tested it, but have noticed a few occasions where I could not convert attuned at all.  Like trying to convert a Cloud Senses to a Siphon Insight, IIRC, gives you a failed conversion message.  They both exist at lvl 30, so you can convert a lvl 30 one, but you cannot convert an attuned one.

[Myrmidon]

2 hours ago, Robotech_Master said:

Well, perhaps it doesn't convert at one jump into LotG...but I can assure you, after several jumps, it does end up as one. I went and tried it again just now, and the conversions went

 

Serendipity -> Kismet -> Serendipity -> Red Fortune -> Reactive Defenses -> Luck of the Gambler.

(And it was even the Global Recharge LotG, yet.)

 

1 mil on the Serendipity plus 70K per converter = an Attuned LotG global recharge sitting in my tray for 1.7 million Inf spent on that conversion. Which I'm gonna save for a future alt, rather than selling. 🙂

 

 

I love playing the Random Attuned Lottery.😁

[unfazeable]

On 7/25/2019 at 1:21 PM, macskull said:

I get my enhancement converters exclusively from reward merits so there's no "sunk cost" other than my time in order to convert things to what I want. It's not difficult to make 200 merits in an hour or so, which will get you 600 converters, and you can do that every day.

How are you making 200 merits an hour, if you don't mind sharing? Weekly TF's is the best I've done so far. This week's was Numina, took, us 52 minutes for a 80 merit reward, and I thought that we were really cruising on it. How are you getting merits almost 2.5X that fast?

[Robotech_Master]

Inquiring minds want to know. 🙂

[Yomo Kimyata]

On 7/25/2019 at 10:25 PM, Yomo Kimyata said:

So it depends. But I always convert the Steadfast Protection Res/End.

And the market is sufficiently messed up that this is no longer true.  I've been selling these higher than the Steadfast Protection +Def!

[MrPengy]

On 7/25/2019 at 1:21 PM, macskull said:

I get my enhancement converters exclusively from reward merits so there's no "sunk cost" other than my time in order to convert things to what I want. It's not difficult to make 200 merits in an hour or so, which will get you 600 converters, and you can do that every day.

 

What are you running that gives 200 merits in an hour?

[Lost Ninja]

If you buy your converters then it isn't worthwhile, in the last few days I've spent well over 1000 of them to get 8 LoTG +Recharge, but my total inf cost was about 3 million everything else came from drops or merits. In the process I also made about 50 million which I know is small potatoes to real Traders but will help me flesh out the rest of the builds. (Triple Boxing is expensive...)

[Yomo Kimyata]

So far my personal record for in-set conversions is 56 rolls before getting the one I wanted.  I spent 168 converters getting what I wanted.

 

That's a (80% ^ 56) or 0.0003741% chance.  Call it a one in 267,276 chance.

 

I posted it at 50mm, just for the sake of principle.

 

Sometimes, I'm a real dingbat.

[MunkiLord]

Did it ever sell for 50 million?

[Yomo Kimyata]

On 11/9/2019 at 2:41 PM, MunkiLord said:

Did it ever sell for 50 million?

No, and I reposted.  It’s not like I need the money, but I cannot stand to have dead transaction slots.

[nzer]

On 9/24/2019 at 9:43 AM, Lost Ninja said:

If you buy your converters then it isn't worthwhile, in the last few days I've spent well over 1000 of them to get 8 LoTG +Recharge, but my total inf cost was about 3 million everything else came from drops or merits. In the process I also made about 50 million which I know is small potatoes to real Traders but will help me flesh out the rest of the builds. (Triple Boxing is expensive...)

It's never worthwhile. With 1000 free converters you'd have made several times that doing bog standard rare conversions. You'd probably have made just as much selling the converters directly.

Edited November 19, 2019 by nzer

[Robotech_Master]

On 9/24/2019 at 12:43 PM, Lost Ninja said:

If you buy your converters then it isn't worthwhile, in the last few days I've spent well over 1000 of them to get 8 LoTG +Recharge, but my total inf cost was about 3 million everything else came from drops or merits. In the process I also made about 50 million which I know is small potatoes to real Traders but will help me flesh out the rest of the builds. (Triple Boxing is expensive...)

That seems like an awful lot of converters for just 8 LotG. Though I guess if you're just converting random Enhancements into them, it could take that much. I always start with a level 41 Reactive Defense, go within Defense category, and I have a 50% chance of getting into LotG from those, and then it's simple to roll within the set to get the recharge proc.

[seebs]

I saw a claim at one point that the chances aren't exactly 1/N -- specifically, that procs might have a lower chance than non-procs, or something like that. So if you convert 1000 LotG, you will get noticably under 166 global recharge procs, and at least a bit over 160 of everything else.

[Yomo Kimyata]

19 minutes ago, seebs said:

I saw a claim at one point that the chances aren't exactly 1/N -- specifically, that procs might have a lower chance than non-procs, or something like that. So if you convert 1000 LotG, you will get noticably under 166 global recharge procs, and at least a bit over 160 of everything else.

I’ve converted a lot.  A LOT.  I can’t say I’ve seen any evidence that the RNG isn’t statistically fair.  

[_NOPE_]

I concur.