The Monologue Thread

[tidge]

On 7/15/2021 at 10:55 PM, Yomo Kimyata said:

I recently bought every Trap of the Hunter proc from the AH (highest price I paid was 9mm).  I don't remember exactly how many, but it was somewhere between 500 and 700 of them.  I reposted 10 of them, and have been converting the remainder and selling them.

 

You bought a few of mine that I had sitting at relatively high sell prices on characters that I'd forgotten I placed. Thanks! Now I have to go back and check all my other 'retired' characters with similar pieces on the market.

 

I also noticed that somebody has got "Inf Fever" buying non-LotG Defense pieces way above what they had been selling at. This strikes me more like a "buy it NAO" but I suppose somebody could be trying to push everyone else out of the LotG market.

[Yomo Kimyata]

2 hours ago, Ukase said:

Personally, the economist in me would rather die than spend merits on a recipe. 

Your comment from another thread reminded me.  The arbitrager in me looked at the Steadfast 3% IO market (which was trading 5mm  or so) a year and change ago and wondered why anyone would sell 100 merits to sell 300 converters for 21mm before taxes when they could buy 5 lvl 10 recipes, craft and sell for 25mm before taxes.

 

So I’ve pretty much been putting in a ~4mm cap on those for a year or so.  Just to keep people from spending merits there.

[twozerofoxtrot]

Our hero wakes up tied to a chair in a dark room. The briny air and undulating floor beneath suggests a ship. From the shadows, a tidy monologue begins.

 

"Enough with this talk of trade. Do you wish to know why you are here? It is simple. There is only enough room for thirty on this vessel. No more, no less. When a fresh new face arrives, room must be made on the roster. A fellow traveler goes overboard into the abyss."

 

A sanctimonious smile spreads into a wicked grin.

 

"And you have failed to earn your place. Goodbye...."

 

 

TLDR: I only keep 30 characters at a time. Alts get deleted like a bad Reddit post. I feel like a hoarder with even that many.

[Yomo Kimyata]

I've long used the guideline that "any rare" I can acquire for under 500k is a good one.  I wanted to put that to the test.

 

So I put in bids at 500k on all kinds of lvl 31 rares.  Some don't fill (like Lotg).  Some pretty much instafill.  Anyway, let's just say it's pretty easy to acquire a large number of rares at or below that price (and if you are converting uncommon recipes to rare IOs, WAY below that price level.)

 

Yesterday, I took 100 of these assorted rares, converted each one once by rarity, not even looking at what it converted into.  Each converter cost me 66,666, each IO cost me 500,000 for a total cost of 566,666.  I listed each IO at 629,629 to ensure that I would get a profit if it sold.

 

41/100 insta sold.  Less than 24 hours later, 94/100 were sold.  Proceeds after taxes were 136,308,658 on an investment of 56,666,600 for a profit of almost 80mm inf and a 140.5% return overnight.  That is without knowing anything about which IOs are valuable or not, or using strategy while converting.  Just blindly converting once and dumping them.

 

Small sample set, I know.

 

Edited July 29, 2021 by Yomo Kimyata
Missed a digit.

[nax2]

is someone actually crazy enough to try to manipulate numina's? i've seen some *very* very odd trends going on with it more recently. i try not to be overly quick to judge manipulation when its usually the case that the coincidence is simply the result of lack of information, but seeing the supply drop to zero on a couple less desirable numina's pieces piques my curiosity.

 

edit: hah you nabbed quite a bit out of an enhancement i keep a close eye on, and i had suspected it was you before you even posted that. should have jumped on that earlier in this particular set, but that's also yet another way people end up making money.

Edited July 29, 2021 by nax2

[PeregrineFalcon]

My main is an Invuln/EM Tanker, American Dream Girl. First on Freedom and now on Torchbearer.

 

She was never supposed to be my main. She was just a character that I made one day. I had a fun theme in mind and an AT/powerset combo I wanted to try out just to see what it was like. I never had a main, just a bunch of different characters that I played.

 

Never mind that I eventually spent more time playing this character than all of my other characters combined. I even made a bunch of other characters trying to find an AT/powerset combo that I would like so that I would stop spending so much time on this one character.

 

Years after The Snap, I logged in to Homecoming for the first time and they had one server: Bree. Without even thinking about it I started recreating my Invuln/EM Tank in the character creator, old screenshot of her costume on my other screen. That's when I realized that she was my main.

[Yomo Kimyata]

5 hours ago, nax2 said:

is someone actually crazy enough to try to manipulate numina's? i've seen some *very* very odd trends going on with it more recently. i try not to be overly quick to judge manipulation when its usually the case that the coincidence is simply the result of lack of information, but seeing the supply drop to zero on a couple less desirable numina's pieces piques my curiosity.

 

edit: hah you nabbed quite a bit out of an enhancement i keep a close eye on, and i had suspected it was you before you even posted that. should have jumped on that earlier in this particular set, but that's also yet another way people end up making money.

 

I assume you are talking about me in your edit, and guilty as charged.  I don't mess around with numina's however, for one simple reason.  I rarely use them and I don't feel like I can sell 50-100 of them in a day for a 2-3mm+ profit.  I guess that's two reasons.

[nax2]

yeah the numina's is a strange case, and I'm almost certain it was a marketer - the supply took an immediate nosedive to zero, and then suddenly a huge amount of bids in both directions. the non suspicious theory could simply be that several people noted the dwindling supply and saw an opportunity to make quick bucks by crafting them, but thats a pretty oft traded enh and it begs the question why all of a sudden...

as for you, that was a partially lethal trap.  but i did end up making a large amount of money on it.  im guessing your bids already cleared.

Edited July 30, 2021 by nax2

[Yomo Kimyata]

57 minutes ago, nax2 said:

as for you, that was a partially lethal trap.  but i did end up making a large amount of money on it.  im guessing your bids already cleared.

 

Aha!  Not nearly as much as I did...

 

 Although only 1/10 of the ones I relisted sold.

 

 

Edited July 30, 2021 by Yomo Kimyata
What's an "n" amongst friends?

[nax2]

1 hour ago, Yomo Kimyata said:

What's an "n" amongst friends?

it was nearly a post about how early you were to those bids 😛

[Siouxsie]

18 hours ago, nax2 said:

yeah the numina's is a strange case, and I'm almost certain it was a marketer - the supply took an immediate nosedive to zero, and then suddenly a huge amount of bids in both directions. the non suspicious theory could simply be that several people noted the dwindling supply and saw an opportunity to make quick bucks by crafting them, but thats a pretty oft traded enh and it begs the question why all of a sudden...

 

I've been doing a lot of trading in Numina's and Miracle the past day or two, but I'm small-time and certainly not dealing in enough volume to shift things.  The market has surprised me though as I've both been buying cheaply and selling for almost an order of magnitude higher.  I'm not even having to convert within the set for the 'junk' pieces.

[Aeroprism]

On 7/29/2021 at 12:12 PM, Yomo Kimyata said:

I've long used the guideline that "any rare" I can acquire for under 500k is a good one.  I wanted to put that to the test.

 

So I put in bids at 500k on all kinds of lvl 31 rares.  Some don't fill (like Lotg).  Some pretty much instafill.  Anyway, let's just say it's pretty easy to acquire a large number of rares at or below that price (and if you are converting uncommon recipes to rare IOs, WAY below that price level.)

 

Yesterday, I took 100 of these assorted rares, converted each one once by rarity, not even looking at what it converted into.  Each converter cost me 66,666, each IO cost me 500,000 for a total cost of 566,666.  I listed each IO at 629,629 to ensure that I would get a profit if it sold.

 

41/100 insta sold.  Less than 24 hours later, 94/100 were sold.  Proceeds after taxes were 136,308,658 on an investment of 56,666,600 for a profit of almost 80mm inf and a 140.5% return overnight.  That is without knowing anything about which IOs are valuable or not, or using strategy while converting.  Just blindly converting once and dumping them.

 

Small sample set, I know.

 

 

This is gloriously beautiful and it gives me an idea. 

 

I will do the maths, try it with a100-200 sample pool and come back with results.

 

 

[Aeroprism]

So I tried that but with a twist.

 

Grabbed 100 yellow recipes of a variety I know and like. Average cost: 15K because I wanted them NAO NAO NAO. = 1 500 000

Salvage: 4K per recipe, again, I wanted it NAO.  = 400 000

Creation (Level 31) is 48 200 inf = 4 820 000 (Could be done with level 21 recipes but one single LOTG compensates for the 21 to 31 cost difference)

Converters at 66.6K each, for a total  of 319 converters used for 20 600 000

I used 2(+10% for oops) converters to get from UC to Rare, and then 1 converter to rare-roulette on MOST of recipes (some 15-20 of them I knew would already sell well)

 

Total investment: 27 396 00

So 274K per recipe.  I sold at 330K but I could have sold at 305 and still be in the green.

 

Total net profit after 100 sales: 105M.  So about 1 Million per recipe.  "Small" profit, but VERY little effort.  Easy ro reproduce fast and without thinking.  Could shave a few millions by shopping better and getting converters with merits.

 

Good stuff.

[Siouxsie]

@Aeroprism That's more or less my main money maker.  I'll buy a bunch of uncommon recipes, make and shift them to rares, and call it a day.  (I have one specific niche, but I'm branching out into a bit more randomness to see what's out there.)  I'm not filthy rich, but it gets me what I need to outfit the current character I'm playing and provides a start for the next one.

 

That and Yomo's giveaway.  Thanks for that!  She used that seed money to make enough to be set for life.

[Aeroprism]

I tried different sauces and flavors in the last three days.  Made about... 600-700 Millions without too much effort, bit I find it's an added bonus to roulette at lease 2-3 times if you get something you know will sell for 500K only.  

 

It's easy to get a bunch of 1.5-2 millions transactions if you put just a tiny little effort.  And it keeps the market healthy. If everyone and their sister outputs nothing but LOTG, not only will the profits go down, the other sets will cost too much on the market.

[tidge]

On 7/30/2021 at 4:05 PM, Siouxsie said:

 

I've been doing a lot of trading in Numina's and Miracle the past day or two, but I'm small-time and certainly not dealing in enough volume to shift things.  The market has surprised me though as I've both been buying cheaply and selling for almost an order of magnitude higher.  I'm not even having to convert within the set for the 'junk' pieces.

 

I avoid the market for (non-PVP) Healing/Absorb pool for two (IMO related) reasons:

• The pieces are all over the place in terms of price
• The pieces are all over the place in terms of utility

My build attitudes about the (non-accurate) Healing/Absorb pieces are cruel/rude/blunt:

• Panacea +HP/+End, Preventive Medicine +Absorb for everybody. (The latter because it reminds me when I am taking damage)
• Miracle +Recovery, but only if a character absolutely can't get Recovery or control Endurance (enough) through other means (including playstyle), which for me almost always translates to "before 50, while leveling"
• Consider (PvP) Panacea sets to backup the unique piece because they can be boosted to 50+5
• 6-slot Preventive Medicine for the Endurance and Recharge global effects

I see a LOT of build suggestions that toss the extra Regeneration pieces in, but unless the build is for a high HP AT, I question if it is really a good use of a slot to add a smidge of +Regeneration as opposed to MOAR defense/damage/recharge, or even something like +Perception.

[Triumphant]

I recycle IO's with unslotters, swapping them from toon to toon.  I also sell everything I find on the AH for 1 inspiration.  Yes, I know many of you make billions off of people like me.  

 

Great.  More power to you, as long as I have to interface with that stupid AH as little as possible.  👍

[Yomo Kimyata]

5 hours ago, tidge said:

 

I avoid the market for (non-PVP) Healing/Absorb pool for two (IMO related) reasons:

• The pieces are all over the place in terms of price
• The pieces are all over the place in terms of utility

 

 

For good or for bad, part of the utility is what can they easily be converted into, which provides a bit of a feedback loop when looking at price.

 

I mostly agree with your set assessments.

 

Triage:  buy the recipes to craft and convert.

Regenerative Tissue:  the proc isn't as useful as whoever is propping up its price seems to think.  I've made some good profits hitting their bids.

Harmonized Healing:  see Triage.

Miracle:  convert into the proc.  Slot the proc in Health if you really really need end help.

Preventative Medicine:  an overall great set, both in terms of slotting and in terms of selling.  I sometimes slot the proc alone, and often 6-slot the set for things like Dull Pain.

Doctored Wounds:  I don't mess with this on the marketing side.  Is 1.5% resistance worth 2.5% recharge on my regen characters?  Maybe, but I generally go with 5-slot Panacea over 5-slot Doctored Wounds.

Numina's:  You know, I really want to make more of this set.  But the proc is pretty low on my hierarchy for Health (panacea, miracle, numina's), and I rarely slot it.  Good 6-slot bonuses if you want ranged D, but I generally just don't muck around with this at all.

 

Then there is Panacea, and I usually 5-slot this in healing sets after I have 6-slotted Preventative Medicine in another set.  I'm a sucker for recharge.

 

And then again, there's frankenslotting.

 

[Yomo Kimyata]

Someone is accumulating a simply massive amount of purple recipes.  Good job!

[Sakai]

6 hours ago, Yomo Kimyata said:

Someone is accumulating a simply massive amount of purple recipes.  Good job!

Are they paying lots?

[Yomo Kimyata]

Well, the price has consistently risen over the last few weeks to 11 or 12mm, it seems to be frequently monitored, and it seems like the same player.

 

Buy it at 11, spend 2 to craft, sell it for 17.  2mm and change in profit is too thin a margin for the capital at risk, in my opinion.  Maybe someone is hoping to push prices higher, but in purple land the rate of supply seems much higher than the rate of demand.  
 

 

[Ura Hero]

My guess would be whoever is doing the Purple arbitrage for the crafted versions. 

 

Edit: No it's not me.  I haven't played the market in months.

Edited August 22, 2021 by Ura Hero

[Aeroprism]

On 8/22/2021 at 12:52 AM, Yomo Kimyata said:

and it seems like the same player.

 

How can you tell that?

 

And no, it's not me.  I trade lost and lots but I tend to have cold feet with purple stuff.  As you said, not enough profit, too volatile.

Edited August 23, 2021 by Aeroprism

[Yomo Kimyata]

43 minutes ago, Aeroprism said:

 

How can you tell that?

 

And no, it's not me.  I trade lost and lots but I tend to have cold feet with purple stuff.  As you said, not enough profit, too volatile.

 

It's a fair question, and it's an easy answer.  It's the same bid across the board. 

 

Also, even when bids were lower, I believe it was still the same person.  People fall into habits and bid (or offer) with a distinctive handle.  In this case, it's ending in "005".  I do the same thing (although my handle is different) so when you look at the history, you can see if someone has outbid you or if you are still the highest outstanding bid.

[Aeroprism]

16 hours ago, Yomo Kimyata said:

 

It's a fair question, and it's an easy answer.  It's the same bid across the board. 

 

Also, even when bids were lower, I believe it was still the same person.  People fall into habits and bid (or offer) with a distinctive handle.  In this case, it's ending in "005".  I do the same thing (although my handle is different) so when you look at the history, you can see if someone has outbid you or if you are still the highest outstanding bid.

 

Makes perfect sense. Thank you for your answer!