State of the Market, post announcement

[Monty Haull]

So, how do you feel about the state of the market post license and the influx of players?

 

In areas that I watch I don't see any significant price changes.  I do see thing selling faster.

 

It also seems the uncommon salvage has dropped down below the 20k floor.

[Andreah]

I've been buying uncommon salvage in bulk well below 20K all last year and continuing today. That's hasn't been a real floor.

 

Things are selling faster, but I am noticing more competition in certain markets, along with modest rises in the low-ranges of price swings, which is perhaps more people trying to get overnight or several-day deals..

[macskull]

I don't know if Tanker ATOs have always been this expensive or what, but I was surprised.

[American Decoy]

I generally sell rare enhancements.  There were two banner days after the announcements when I topped 999,999,999 in profits on each day.  It almost seemed like a job.  It has slowed down to a more enjoyable 250,000,000-per-day pace that I can minimize the market game and play on teams.

[tidge]

I am very casual these days and only noticed a couple of things:

 

The uncommon salvage market has overcome the pricing silliness. Thanks farmers!

 

It took longer than I expected to sell some of my wares. I am guessing that it took some time for new players to get comfortable with slotting their characters.

[Perfidy]

I'm amused at what boredom (I assume) produces in the market. 

Rare salvage which used to generally get you 500k, now seems to sell far more frequently at 400k. 
Uncommon salvage which was selling for varying prices that were generally higher than the vendor sell price now seem to be all over the place, but now more often than not, less than the 10k to 20k range they had been selling at. 

Some of the higher demand invention enhancements continue to be consistently priced at 3M, give or take 10%. (such as perf shifter +end, Power Transfer +heal, Preventative Medicine Absorb proc) 
Lotg 7.5% is interestingly selling within a broader range - 5-7m, whereas anecdotally, when I'd look, they used to never sell for less than 6M unless you were fortunate to bid on one when someone just dumped them at 1 inf, or some other very low price. 

The pvp IOs, there's still a market for them, but the profit margin isn't as good as it used to be, as competition seems to have still outpaced demand's upward push on the prices. You can get the recipes for less than 2m if patient, and can still make a gross 6-10M on the crafted, with the average leaning more towards 6M than the 8M which was more common before page 5. 

[Yomo Kimyata]

From a cursory inspection, I’d say that the influx of new players ( or the return of old players) seem to be comfortable with the /AH.  I’m seeing a lot more supply of crafted enhancements for sale, prices coming down on a bunch of them, converters are in rarer supply and going up in price, and a lot more complaints about not being able to sell things as quickly or at such high prices.

 

This could also be due to older players dumping supply to clean up.  I’ve been guilty of that for two years now and my bases are still a mess!

[Zect]

Price changes year on year:

• Purples significantly up (even the recent MC WST failed to dent it)
• PVPIO’s slightly down
• Winter IO’s unchanged 
• ATIO’s up for certain AT’s (especially tankers - low skill and overpowered)
• Other worthwhile enhancements moderately down

[Yomo Kimyata]

I logged on yesterday and noted that some staples that have been meticulously maintained for years have dropped in price and with a large umber of offers.  Not all staples, but a few.  Looks like someone with a large inventory got tired of holding and whoever was maintaining the market got swamped.

[Andreah]

On 3/14/2024 at 9:01 AM, Yomo Kimyata said:

I logged on yesterday and noted that some staples that have been meticulously maintained for years have dropped in price and with a large umber of offers.  Not all staples, but a few.  Looks like someone with a large inventory got tired of holding and whoever was maintaining the market got swamped.

Could be so. 

 

My personal view is we're seeing long-term deflation, based on a flood of goods and too little Inf in circulation, crazy as that sounds. As if some people have been making piles of goods to sell and hoarding influence by the trillions in giant money bins ... we Ebil Marketeers would have NO IDEA who those people are.

Edited March 17 by Andreah

[Andreah]

On a slightly more serious note, there's a balance of incoming Influence from drops and vendor sales vs the need of newly created characters to be kited out with enhancements, and the resulting influence sinks in vendor buys, market fees, and sequestered hoards belonging to Inf Collectors.

 

If a lot of player's are finishing their builds or if in general, fewer builds are being created, then demand will drop, and prices along with them as sellers compete to get the fewer possible sales. It's complicated by the fixed price items throughout the game economy. 

 

It also means that Joe Average Trillionaire's stash could buy more goods today than it could last year, or especially four-five years ago.

[Glacier Peak]

2019: 90,000 inf avg for a converter

2024: 55,000 inf avg for a converter

 

Converter prices are the metric I weigh the most heavily in determining the impact of player demographic change. 

[Lockely]

28 minutes ago, Glacier Peak said:

2019: 90,000 inf avg for a converter

2024: 55,000 inf avg for a converter

 

Converter prices are the metric I weigh the most heavily in determining the impact of player demographic change. 

 

I would say it's closer to 60k currently. Yeah there are people who dump the market at 55k, but I have no problem selling a hami-merit reward worth of converters at 60 or even 65 within 24 hours.

 

I'm hard pressed to sell at 70k though. Meanwhile it feels like the cost of AT specific IOs has gone up.

[Glacier Peak]

45 minutes ago, Lockely said:

I would say it's closer to 60k currently. Yeah there are people who dump the market at 55k, but I have no problem selling a hami-merit reward worth of converters at 60 or even 65 within 24 hours.

 

I'm hard pressed to sell at 70k though. 

It's amazing how just waiting makes me more inf. I post a bid and eventually, maybe days, maybe months, that bid will fill. Same goes for selling. Time is what makes me the most inf!

[Lockely]

Time is a currency in and of itself though. An extra 1MM/bid early can make the difference in a lot of time saved during missions by having your IO set.

[Glacier Peak]

1 hour ago, Lockely said:

Time is a currency in and of itself though. An extra 1MM/bid early can make the difference in a lot of time saved during missions by having your IO set.

Very true, absolutely agree. I look at it from a longer time horizon though. If I want something in this game and I don't want to wait, I'll get it instantly on the beta server. I actually play out my build concepts in advanced that way. It took many attempts at multi-billion inf builds to learn my lesson (which were mostly related to PvP meta from a few years ago). Build in Mids, export to beta, go through my usual gauntlet of test content (Maria Jenkins at increasing difficulty, then over to Monster Island for cascading mitigation testing).

 

If I'm buying at "NOW!" prices, I'm already getting hoodwinked. Though I'll confess I've been willingly hoodwinked on occasion if I'm pressed for... time!

[Yomo Kimyata]

We should be coming up to right around the point where it gets interesting.  Based on some completely anecdotal evidence, players who started earlier this year post-announcement should be hitting 50 on one or more characters right about now.  Do they make new alts and equip them, which is good for higher demand?  Do they dip into marketing themselves which is good for higher supply?  

 

There should be an on-staff economist making predictions!  "Economist" is a job title where you can be wrong 75% of the time, and yet still not get fired.

[Monty Haull]

49 minutes ago, Yomo Kimyata said:

There should be an on-staff economist making predictions!  "Economist" is a job title where you can be wrong 75% of the time, and yet still not get fired.

75% chance of getting a retention raise & a  bonus and of course stock options.

[UltraAlt]

On 3/17/2024 at 7:26 PM, Lockely said:

Time is a currency in and of itself though. An extra 1MM/bid early can make the difference in a lot of time saved during missions by having your IO set.

 

Yes. Buy it now!

Buy quickly ... even at a inflated price ... it's there for the taking ... just do it!

 

[TheSpiritFox]

Christ. So I went and just dropped 2 billion in purchase orders for lowball purple bids, bid 3x on every single purple enhancement. I am almost out of bids now. The number of people dropping purples on the AH for likely 1 infl bids is absolutely insane. I thought it would take weeks, its been fuckin days!

 

Also, for any flippers out there, what margins do yall go for? Is 1-3 million profit enough to flip for or do you work for bigger gains?

I struggle to commit to anything with less than a 33% profit margin. 

Edited March 28 by TheSpiritFox

[kito]

Tank ato are up probably for people trying to rush a farmer and start getting there inf flowing. 

 

Low bids are crazy high again to many New people are power lvling or just playing with friends at LVL 50 with there LVL 10 so if they happen to get a purple recipe they can't afford the tax and half to sell it for low and hope for a few million to pay the tax on the next itme.  

 

Possibly why middle level salvage is dropping more people are selling it. I found most marketers ignore it the Proffitt is to little to care.

 

Converters are up. I saw average price of 60k but I have been selling them for 75 the last two weeks and sell out over night each night. 

 

Weekends are insane I make more on the market sat/Sunday in two hours work then Indo Monday/Thursday  

 

Idk if MSR and hamidon are being done more but merit items are everywhere. LVL converters are down where up over a million before there under 800k on average now some people have complained they don't know how to make inf anymore.  

 

Market forecast this is probably the midnight for the new players in 3-6 months prices will drop both from less people on for the summer and more stable build and farmers now around. But still more new players everyday if we see another spike the profits will only grow. 

 

Stock up on winter and purples if they dip new players who don't know how to build will buy them cuz they have the best stats and slot them into anything when that happens you will profit.  

 

😉 pleas send me 15% of all profits for this advice 😉

 

[TheSpiritFox]

Seriously weekends are good for you?

 

Weekends all the shit I want to sell goes up in quantity and thus down in price, and prices rebound during the week. So I find myself spending the money on the weekends and making shitloads back during the week when the weekend warriors log off and dont log back on much. If I add it all together with the bids I've still got out, the liquid on my characters, and the enhancement table full of purples that was empty a week ago, I'm up at least 2.5 billion in the last two weeks. Which is pretty fucking good considering I'm broker than most of the people posting here and only had 6 billion total capital two weeks ago. 

[Lockely]

11 hours ago, kito said:

Idk if MSR and hamidon are being done more but merit items are everywhere. LVL converters are down where up over a million before there under 800k on average now some people have complained they don't know how to make inf anymore.  

 

I don't know how it is on Excel, but Everlasting hits both of these multiple times a day on a schedule, every single day.

[kito]

On 3/29/2024 at 11:30 AM, TheSpiritFox said:

Seriously weekends are good for you?

 

Weekends all the shit I want to sell goes up in quantity and thus down in price, and prices rebound during the week. So I find myself spending the money on the weekends and making shitloads back during the week when the weekend warriors log off and dont log back on much. If I add it all together with the bids I've still got out, the liquid on my characters, and the enhancement table full of purples that was empty a week ago, I'm up at least 2.5 billion in the last two weeks. Which is pretty fucking good considering I'm broker than most of the people posting here and only had 6 billion total capital two weeks ago. 

 

Yes more people on thing sell for more on the weekend walked away with almost 2 billion each day this weekend. I'll often stock up on lower costing things Mon-thursday and sell most of it fri-sunday like Armageddon went for 25 mill some as high as 30 over this weekend. 

[Neogumbercules]

Are you guys still converting uncommon yellow recipes or have your methods evolved? I've kinda gotten back into that converter rat race, buying up tons of yellows and converting them to something better. I'm doing zero fishing and just throwing everything I get on the AH for less than what it looks like they're selling for.

 

Over the last week and a half I've made about 700m just doing that. I'm also being stupid and buying converters for 69,420 because I'm immature and it gives me a chuckle.