Current thoughts on the market

[Ukase]

I've been thinking about the market for some time, mainly since I stepped back from doing anything market related, with this voice in my head saying, "Dude, you have enough inf to make a great build for each character you might make if you filled all the available character slots." 

But, I didn't get that much influence by torturing myself. I got it because in many ways, the market is more interesting than some of the content available. 

As items on the market are getting cheaper, it just means I have even more disposable influence than I had before. At least, for now. 
And if things get more expensive, I'll adapt and make more. 

But, there's something concerning me with a small part of the market - prismatics. 

Have you guys ever actually spent the prismatics to make a mini-version of your character? 
Since last Halloween, when the ToTing was going on, and everyone was getting 10 prismatics per character, and when Scrapyard was being clobbered a lot, and prismatics would drop randomly during story arcs, I have been stockpiling these since I bought a bunch for 100M just to get some badges
Looking at their current price, 3M each seems like chump change. A mini-me requires 250 prismatics. So, 750M if you don't have any. Again, chump change for most of us. (unless we had to repeatedly buy them for each character - that could add up, but I still think I can outpace that, if properly motivated.) 
I got to thinking - GMs are dropping Monstrous Aethers. We need 3 of them to make one prismatic, if that's even what folks are doing with them. To me, it seems like the price has stabled, for now, but I am wondering how many of these are going to routinely hit the market each day. 

20? 50? It can't be that many. 2000 people playing, I don't know the drop rate, but I thought it was around .02%, not to be confused with 2 percent. It could be where I read it - that person was confused about representing a percentage with a decimal point. Not real sure. But unless the folks who are running the hard mode TFs are listing theirs, I just don't think there will be a lot of these - because - wait for it- people like the mini-me "costumes". Mine is a hoot, especially uppercut. His little arm doesn't even reach their chin - it's like a bad wrestling match! 

I looked just before the emergency maintenance. I think it was about 2700 of them available. I was fortunate; I didn't need to buy any. 
But, I see this as a section of the market to keep under observation. I would expect the price of these to rise a bit, closer to 5m if things stay the same. 

I no longer see the 1500 number on Excelsior. It's barely breaking 1K when I look to see. I think we're going to see some prices go up some tiny percentage - maybe 5-10%  in the short to mid-run, over the next 3 to 6 months. Summer is coming for most of us, so that should mean people are spending more time outside, and less time playing. The only thing that might suppress this is Yomo, or others like Yomo,  liquidating their inventory. 
I could certainly be wrong, and I hope I am. 

[macskull]

I have a few thousand PAs sitting around between a few characters. I've never bought anything more than the 10 PA costumes with them, but I've also never sold any of them. I'm just lazy.

[lemming]

18 hours ago, Ukase said:

Have you guys ever actually spent the prismatics to make a mini-version of your character? 

I don't know the drop rate, but I thought it was around .02%, not to be confused with 2 percent. It could be where I read it - that person was confused about representing a percentage with a decimal point. Not real sure.

1) I have three of my characters with a mini and one that has a few other things going on.  None bought, all collected.

2) That was one of my theories, but without looking at the code, it's just a guess.

 

750m is probably not chump change for most.  Heck, while I could afford that, I don't wanna.  

[Lunar Ronin]

I have no interest in any of the prismatic aether costumes.  I actually kind of find them annoying - seeing other people dressed as mobs, and some of the newer ones like the various mechs look incredibly janky in indoor maps.  I personally don't like playing with people who use them.  It's immersion breaking.  But I realize I'm probably an extreme outlier.

 

Any aethers I get go up on the black market, so that should help a little, although I don't do any advanced mode TFs/SFs anymore.

Edited March 30 by Lunar Ronin

[Andreah]

I think it's inevitable that we undergo price deflation steadily. Our ability to produce goods like the better IO's and etc. exceeds most people's appetites for additional alts or the number of new players who might join the game. Furthermore, since having high net-worth is also a end-game goal for more than a few people, both in stockpiling goods and in raw, never to be spent inf, supply will always rise and demand will continue to decline. That's a recipe for price drops. It's not a bad thing, but it's a different thing, and people may need to adjust.

 

A way to correct this would have to include worthwhile recurring cost sinks for inf accessible to many players, or some sort of means to make it necessary to replace slotted enhancements, such as "gear damage" (which no one would want, me included!).

[tidge]

On 3/29/2024 at 6:40 PM, Ukase said:

But, there's something concerning me with a small part of the market - prismatics. 

Have you guys ever actually spent the prismatics to make a mini-version of your character?

 

I know I have a mini-mode for one character... and maybe on another... but that was for specific costume reasons that fit the character concepts. I don't enjoy how the collision box/map navigation works for mini-mode, so it is not a high priority for me.

 

I have alternate prismatic costumes for several characters, mostly for concept reasons.... and a little bit for nostalgia, because on Live I would occasionally try to make characters look like enemy critters.

 

[Ironblade]

On 3/29/2024 at 6:40 PM, Ukase said:

Have you guys ever actually spent the prismatics to make a mini-version of your character?

Yes.  Ironblade has the mini character, enough costumes to get the badges plus 5-6 more.  Currently, he has about 700 prismatic aether that I'm not sure what to do with.  I have not purchased any.

 

 

On 3/29/2024 at 6:40 PM, Ukase said:

Looking at their current price, 3M each seems like chump change. A mini-me requires 250 prismatics. So, 750M if you don't have any. Again, chump change for most of us.

When you say "most of us", I'm guessing you mean the players who frequent the Market forum.  Because that sure as hell ain't chump change for the average player.

 

 

On 3/29/2024 at 6:40 PM, Ukase said:

I don't know the drop rate, but I thought it was around .02%, not to be confused with 2 percent.

Are you talking about the Monstrous Aether?  As I recall, there is no 'drop rate', per se.  Giant monsters each drop a fixed number of MA (different for different monsters) and there is no percentage chance involved and no other way to get them.  Prismatics have a 2% chance to drop upon completing a mission.

 

I do recall ONE drop rate that is a fraction of 1% and that would be the odds of getting the Hamidon Bud vanity pet from killing a bud.

[Ukase]

8 hours ago, Ironblade said:

When you say "most of us", I'm guessing you mean the players who frequent the Market forum.  Because that sure as hell ain't chump change for the average player.

 

Yes, for the folks that frequent the market forum. 
 

 

8 hours ago, Ironblade said:

Are you talking about the Monstrous Aether? 

No, I'm talking about the prismatic. 

[TheSpiritFox]

Mini mode on one character, one of the premium effects on two characters, a smattering of costumes and pets. My main has the 100 PA cataphract costume, all told spent a little over 1k PAs so far. Bought most of them off of people in large numbers, farmed up about 250 during the Scrapyard farm days. Its faster to farm up influence to buy PAs than PAs

 

[hejtmane]

I think there is a bulk seller who is undermining the market listing all his stuff for 500k or a 1M oh wait that is me trying to collapse the market. Sorry it is my evil alter ego and he has taken over his master plan is to crash the economy of Atlas Park . That way it is cheaper and easier to bribe government officials to look the other way.

 

Signed Dr Detroit

Edited May 15 by hejtmane

[Sanguinesun]

1. Prismatics pretty much if sold at the market going rate instantly sell.  The price consistently has been going down year after year since its inception.  It will continue to drop in prices as time goes on.  There are just simply more ways now than ever to produce primsatics(especially because of the frequency of monsterous aether that people convert. 

 

2.  Remember the AH is a blind system for all servers connected.  That blind aspect to the system has helped obscure alot more than some actually realize.

 

3.  Summer seasonally may create an uptick in price demand but I doubt it currently.  And 1000% guaranteed once Halloween rolls around and people take all their alts over the last year to run through to get their guaranteed 10 aethers, well, that's going to see another downspike in prices too. 

 

4. Unless more popular items are introduced to cause prismatics to be more in demand to balance/imbalance things, sale prices of them on the AH will continue to drop.  I predict 1-1.5mil range by october at the current expected trends.

[Andreah]

6 hours ago, Sanguinesun said:

I predict 1-1.5mil range by october at the current expected trends.

Sounds about right.

[Ukase]

On 5/31/2024 at 2:25 PM, Sanguinesun said:

sale prices of them on the AH will continue to drop

Interesting conclusion. 
And it does sound about right. 

I'm on record somewhere suggesting that these will be selling for under 1M before it's all over. The only question is when. 

I do not foresee any new things to be acquired with the prismatic, but I'm not active on the closed beta server either - (whatever it's called - before it hits brainstorm) 

I do recall seeing someone in the forums out of sorts because they felt the cost on the AH for the prismatic was too high and they needed to cost less. So, perhaps downward prices are a good thing for everyone - except the folks who sell them. (which ain't me - I hoard those things like everything else) 

[Sanguinesun]

14 hours ago, Ukase said:

Interesting conclusion. 
And it does sound about right. 

I'm on record somewhere suggesting that these will be selling for under 1M before it's all over. The only question is when. 

I do not foresee any new things to be acquired with the prismatic, but I'm not active on the closed beta server either - (whatever it's called - before it hits brainstorm) 

I do recall seeing someone in the forums out of sorts because they felt the cost on the AH for the prismatic was too high and they needed to cost less. So, perhaps downward prices are a good thing for everyone - except the folks who sell them. (which ain't me - I hoard those things like everything else) 

 

 

Around the mapserve week in april, the price was around 3mil and in just 2 months its already dropped to 2.2-2.5, obviously activity generating more to be sold drives prices but also I think there's been a factor of people who have also been hoarding them have started to sell them, likely because either their expectations of use stopped or because they had speculated the would've remained better in value than they have.  Monsterous aether is actually much easier to consistently obtain for even the non 50+ crowd and since 3 convert to 1 prismatic, that is generating probably the most likely continued source of dropping the prices of them.

 

Also the blind auction system and people's tendency to list something for the lowest rate of the previous 5 sale prices also helps drive it down if volume out paces demand on an item like aethers do.   I always tell people, especially the new and returnee folks, to sell asap their aethers due to this trend as well(which feeds it really).

 

Quite frankly (and likely much to the chagrin of the person(s) who pushed for these currencies to be implemented) Im all for their prices dropping like a rock.