market variations

[Snarky]

i do not actually have a ton of inf in CoH.  do not need it.  liquid a couple billion and a base chock full of i/o  

 

i make a decent amount on crafting converting.  there has been a significant change in AH in last 6 months.  it started with uncommon salvage.  like someone weirdly cornered the market.

 

now i see it in the few regular money making i/o  it consists of this phenomenon  try to buy one of these "pretty good" I/Os at 3 million.  No luck.  Try to sell one at 4 million.  no luck.  Bids show they are selling for 2 million.  but you can never buy one at that price.  There is still a little profit in the same old I/os but the profit is lower.  and the games are written all over the bid history.

 

Someone (and I suspect a SG or Cartel...has discovered how to mass farm the market and they are putting the F to U  (and me)  

 

I may just quit the AH/Inf system and self support through merits.  I have no time in my life to be screwed by people who WANT to be used car salesmen so desperately they train in old CoH

 

To be clear I think the AH system has been brute force hacked somehow, with some leverage placed on it or a kink in the code someone has discovered in timing of bids, etc

Edited December 23, 2022 by Snarky

[JasperStone]

 I have to agree.

To the point, I have turned to my one-farmer character to do some heavy lifting.

[roleki]

How long are you letting these bids marinate before calling them unfilled? 

 

I don't doubt the market has been janky lately, but I can't help but wonder if there's some less-nefarious, more-technical reason for it, considering it seems to be happening on the stuff that historically has the most movement. 

 

Then again, those are exactly the things some nefarious buttholes would try to manipulate, so, who knows.

 

Of course, if you just farm a little every week, you'll rarely ever traffic in the AH, and you can safely glide past market shenanigans, no matter what hole they're coming out of.

[BlackSpectre]

There's just more people trying to sell more things. It has driven prices down, and cut profits by about 33% over the last 6 months, but 66% profit is still worth doing. You just have to refrain from being greedy. Set a steady pace and stick to it even if your stuff sells out in 2 hours. There's still room for everyone if you leave room for them, and then the prices won't shrink down even further. Otherwise, if you don't leave room for others, then your profit will plummet and you'll kill your own success, and everyone else's, just by being overzealous. 

 

Since there may be more people crafting and selling more things, there is less salvage available and higher demand, which has driven salvage prices up.  But in all honesty, I just think there are less people selling salvage. I actually make more inf selling my salvage and recipes to the Store rather than offering them up in the auction house... and it's easier and takes less time to sell it than auction it. That said, every week I empty one of my alt's salvage and recipes into the auction house and sell all salvage for 100 inf and all recipes for 1,000 inf... yep, common, uncommon, and rare alike. I just dump it. So some people are getting things really, really cheap. I don't make very much inf doing this, but I think of it as a kind of community service... helping out the less fortunate or the new players.

 

The probable reason you see things sold for 2 mil but you can never buy IOs for that price is probably because you're trying to buy it NOW instead of placing a bid and waiting a few days. Many people place bids and wait for someone to dump the IOs  into the auction house on the cheap.   It's one argument for planning out your builds ahead of time so you can place low bids for the items you need before you actually need them.

 

 

 

[Snarky]

10 minutes ago, roleki said:

How long are you letting these bids marinate before calling them unfilled? 

 

I don't doubt the market has been janky lately, but I can't help but wonder if there's some less-nefarious, more-technical reason for it, considering it seems to be happening on the stuff that historically has the most movement. 

 

Then again, those are exactly the things some nefarious buttholes would try to manipulate, so, who knows.

 

Of course, if you just farm a little every week, you'll rarely ever traffic in the AH, and you can safely glide past market shenanigans, no matter what hole they're coming out of.

There is the rub.  I only farm to PL myself.   Which generates recipes.  OCD kicks in.  Craft, convert, look at market, double take wtf….

[Snarky]

3 minutes ago, BlackSpectre said:

There's just more people trying to sell more things. It has driven prices down, and cut profits by about 33% over the last 6 months, but 66% profit is still worth doing. You just have to refrain from being greedy. Set a steady pace and stick to it even if your stuff sells out in 2 hours. There's still room for everyone if you leave room for them, and then the prices won't shrink down even further. Otherwise, if you don't leave room for others, then your profit will plummet and you'll kill your own success, and everyone else's, just by being overzealous. 

 

Since there may be more people crafting and selling more things, there is less salvage available and higher demand, which has driven salvage prices up.  But in all honesty, I just think there are less people selling salvage. I actually make more inf selling my salvage and recipes to the Store rather than offering them up in the auction house... and it's easier and takes less time to sell it than auction it. That said, every week I empty one of my alt's salvage and recipes into the auction house and sell all salvage for 100 inf and all recipes for 1,000 inf... yep, common, uncommon, and rare alike. I just dump it. So some people are getting things really, really cheap. I don't make very much inf doing this, but I think of it as a kind of community service... helping out the less fortunate or the new players.

 

The probable reason you see things sold for 2 mil but you can never buy IOs for that price is probably because you're trying to buy it NOW instead of placing a bid and waiting a few days. Many people place bids and wait for someone to dump the IOs  into the auction house on the cheap.   It's one argument for planning out your builds ahead of time so you can place low bids for the items you need before you actually need them.

 

 

 

Behind every extensive explanation is a person with their hand in your wallet….  Your advice boils down to suck it ip and put more stuff on the AH.  So, you backdealing bitcoin money to gamble or you just a true believer in it?

Edited December 23, 2022 by Snarky

[BlackSpectre]

6 minutes ago, Snarky said:

Behind every extensive explanation is a person with their hand in your wallet….

And behind every snarky remark is... Snarky. Hey! It's you!!!! 😉

[nihilii]

All the problems you see could be explained by lack of liquidity.

 

A market with less liquidity will have less items on sale at a given moment. This means more time needed for bids to fill. Things you could buy instantly before might require posting a bid and wait, if you're not willing to up your price.

In terms of flipping, this also means the pool of items you're competing for shrinks.

Say Bob the Evil Flipper used to buy 20 miracle +recovery per day at 4M to flip them for 5M.

If 50 miracles are marketsold per day, Bob snatches 20 of them, and you could have a fair chance at getting up to 30 by also posting 4M bids. Volume both covers and creates inefficiencies

If only 10 miracles are marketsold per day, and if you put the exact same bids as Bob, it's a crapshoot whether they'll end up in your pocket or his.

FWIW, I haven't had any trouble getting items in a timely manner (24 hours) by taking the obvious "flipper" bid for any item and adding digits.

 

i.e.: I see an ATO last 5 looking like this

8,000,000

7,000,000

5,042,000
7,100,000

5,042,000

I put my bid at 5,111,111. Next morning, I have this ATO in my pocket.

 

Never fails.

[Snarky]

3 hours ago, nihilii said:

All the problems you see could be explained by lack of liquidity.

 

A market with less liquidity will have less items on sale at a given moment. This means more time needed for bids to fill. Things you could buy instantly before might require posting a bid and wait, if you're not willing to up your price.

In terms of flipping, this also means the pool of items you're competing for shrinks.

Say Bob the Evil Flipper used to buy 20 miracle +recovery per day at 4M to flip them for 5M.

If 50 miracles are marketsold per day, Bob snatches 20 of them, and you could have a fair chance at getting up to 30 by also posting 4M bids. Volume both covers and creates inefficiencies

If only 10 miracles are marketsold per day, and if you put the exact same bids as Bob, it's a crapshoot whether they'll end up in your pocket or his.

FWIW, I haven't had any trouble getting items in a timely manner (24 hours) by taking the obvious "flipper" bid for any item and adding digits.

 

i.e.: I see an ATO last 5 looking like this

8,000,000

7,000,000

5,042,000
7,100,000

5,042,000

I put my bid at 5,111,111. Next morning, I have this ATO in my pocket.

 

Never fails.

The thing is I am NOT flipping.  And I will post items for a week.  The bid histories and my experiences selling an item have NO correlation. 

[JasperStone]

Hello.

It's me.

I'm the one you are looking for.

 

I used to sell everything in the base that I could.

But that stuff is ... poof gone.

 

I now stored a limited about in my base and in the auction house.

Sell the rest.

Usually at the lowest cost possible and bid a little over.

 

Well ...not anymore.

 

Sell high, bid low.

 

[Snarky]

1 minute ago, JasperStone said:

Hello.

It's me.

I'm the one you are looking for.

 

I used to sell everything in the base that I could.

But that stuff is ... poof gone.

 

I now stored a limited about in my base and in the auction house.

Sell the rest.

Usually at the lowest cost possible and bid a little over.

 

Well ...not anymore.

 

Sell high, bid low.

 

You used to sell everything in the base.  Trying to figure this out.  you had 1200 enhancers nut you went through them all.  That is....nothing.  Market moving wise.

 

You sell.  Yes!  Yes!  I sell.  We are like brothers.  You should come over.  Grab a bite.

 

You used to sell for nothing and try to buy for less.  Interesting strategy.

 

Now you buy low and sell high. 

 

*pats your head.  And they said he would never learn.  Can we get a round of applause over here?

[JasperStone]

3 minutes ago, Snarky said:

You used to sell everything in the base.  Trying to figure this out.  you had 1200 enhancers nut you went through them all.  That is....nothing.  Market moving wise.

 

You sell.  Yes!  Yes!  I sell.  We are like brothers.  You should come over.  Grab a bite.

 

You used to sell for nothing and try to buy for less.  Interesting strategy.

 

Now you buy low and sell high. 

 

*pats your head.  And they said he would never learn.  Can we get a round of applause over here?

*Sell everything I could*

 

[Snarky]

17 minutes ago, JasperStone said:

*Sell everything I could*

 

i get it Jasper.  in my Snarky way i am trying to say no one, or 10 of us doing (or not doing) normal activity will affect the market.

 

Starting about 6 months? ago I noticed a crazy trend in the uncommon salvage.  now i am seeing stuff that makes no sense in the i/o market

[nihilii]

52 minutes ago, Snarky said:

The thing is I am NOT flipping.  And I will post items for a week.  The bid histories and my experiences selling an item have NO correlation. 

Got it. I'd still argue less liquidity is the likely culprit. You're competing for less demand with people who price their IOs lower than you.

If the last 5 is 2M * 5, for all you know, the seller stealing your lunch is listing them at 1,610,000 or even 1,111,111.

Whenever I sell loot, I generally price them as little above the flipping price as to make them unprofitable to flip. So in my 8M, 7M, 5,042k, 7M1, 5,042k example above... I'd list my IOs for 6M1 or so. Flippers aren't going to touch that, and my IOs will be the first sold for at least 7M (save for the very rare freak bid trying out lower numbers).

Even when flipping stuff, it's sometimes a good strategy to list things at breakeven prices if you're confident the actual price most people will bid is profitable.

[Ironblade]

14 hours ago, Snarky said:

i do not actually have a ton of inf in CoH.

I don't think those words mean what you think they mean.

 

14 hours ago, Snarky said:

liquid a couple billion and a base chock full of i/o 

😛

[Snarky]

7 minutes ago, Ironblade said:

I don't think those words mean what you think they mean.

 

😛

i am not a "whale"  we both know whales.  they have hundreds of billions.  i think the exact measurement for a whale is if you have stupid billion inf.

 

i have "virtually" unlimited CoH cash.  As i play i replenish what i spend on alts nearly organically.

 

except it is a pain to do these ocd driven craft convert sell.  and some dipsticks are pretty obviously hacking the market. 

 

i know business.  i know math.  i know when i am getting screwed just by looking at it.  been around the graveyard a while.

[Xaddy]

12 hours ago, Snarky said:

To be clear I think the AH system has been brute force hacked somehow, with some leverage placed on it or a kink in the code someone has discovered in timing of bids, etc

I have no evidence of anything, beyond observation. And - I don't see everything, so even that makes my opinion less valid. 

I wouldn't be surprised to learn that those who control the code are behind these marketing schemes. We've been told that the marketing code is all spaghetti string, with very little duct tape to hold it all together. Just mucking with it could bring the digital world to a screeching halt. So - rationally thinking, odds are certainly against that kind of possibility. I do understand that - I am just saying I wouldn't be surprised. Besides, how can I trust the words of some stranger saying they've seen the code and it is horribly bloated and convoluted? I cannot. But, I certainly can't say they're lying, I haven't seen it. 

I'd love to look at it - but not enough to download it see it. It would likely take up far more room on my system than I'd like, and just having it...I'd still have to give it all a very good look to even know what I was looking at. No telling how much or little it's documented, and if it would even make sense. 

I'll leave it at that. I could bring up farming or reduced farming, but I've no evidence of that. I just know I've stopped. 
 

[Yomo Kimyata]

10 hours ago, BlackSpectre said:

There's just more people trying to sell more things. It has driven prices down, and cut profits by about 33% over the last 6 months, but 66% profit is still worth doing. You just have to refrain from being greedy. Set a steady pace and stick to it even if your stuff sells out in 2 hours. There's still room for everyone if you leave room for them, and then the prices won't shrink down even further. Otherwise, if you don't leave room for others, then your profit will plummet and you'll kill your own success, and everyone else's, just by being overzealous. 

 

Since there may be more people crafting and selling more things, there is less salvage available and higher demand, which has driven salvage prices up.  But in all honesty, I just think there are less people selling salvage. I actually make more inf selling my salvage and recipes to the Store rather than offering them up in the auction house... and it's easier and takes less time to sell it than auction it. That said, every week I empty one of my alt's salvage and recipes into the auction house and sell all salvage for 100 inf and all recipes for 1,000 inf... yep, common, uncommon, and rare alike. I just dump it. So some people are getting things really, really cheap. I don't make very much inf doing this, but I think of it as a kind of community service... helping out the less fortunate or the new players.

 

The probable reason you see things sold for 2 mil but you can never buy IOs for that price is probably because you're trying to buy it NOW instead of placing a bid and waiting a few days. Many people place bids and wait for someone to dump the IOs  into the auction house on the cheap.   It's one argument for planning out your builds ahead of time so you can place low bids for the items you need before you actually need them.

 

 

 

 

This is true.  There is SO MUCH STUFF out there, and thanks to converters it's all topographically equivalent.  A Trap of the Hunter = a Luck of the Gambler.  Entomb = Avalanche.

 

5 hours ago, nihilii said:

All the problems you see could be explained by lack of liquidity.

 

A market with less liquidity will have less items on sale at a given moment. This means more time needed for bids to fill. Things you could buy instantly before might require posting a bid and wait, if you're not willing to up your price.

In terms of flipping, this also means the pool of items you're competing for shrinks.

Say Bob the Evil Flipper used to buy 20 miracle +recovery per day at 4M to flip them for 5M.

If 50 miracles are marketsold per day, Bob snatches 20 of them, and you could have a fair chance at getting up to 30 by also posting 4M bids. Volume both covers and creates inefficiencies

If only 10 miracles are marketsold per day, and if you put the exact same bids as Bob, it's a crapshoot whether they'll end up in your pocket or his.

FWIW, I haven't had any trouble getting items in a timely manner (24 hours) by taking the obvious "flipper" bid for any item and adding digits.

 

i.e.: I see an ATO last 5 looking like this

8,000,000

7,000,000

5,042,000
7,100,000

5,042,000

I put my bid at 5,111,111. Next morning, I have this ATO in my pocket.

 

Never fails.

 

This is true.  Your traditional market providers have gotten tired of providing liquidity, since they have enough inf to do anything.  The Buy/Sell-it-nao crowd are in charge and they are complainy!

 

2 hours ago, JasperStone said:

Hello.

It's me.

I'm the one you are looking for.

 

I used to sell everything in the base that I could.

But that stuff is ... poof gone.

 

I now stored a limited about in my base and in the auction house.

Sell the rest.

Usually at the lowest cost possible and bid a little over.

 

Well ...not anymore.

 

Sell high, bid low.

 

 

This is true.  Lots of people (or a small number of people with a huge number of things in storage) have cleaned house.  It's still happening in a lot of places.  I've come to realize that the big converter dump around 27:4 was a few big time farmers going through all their alts and dumping all their merits and emp merits.  I mean, how many unused merits do you think there are *still* in the system right now?  Millions, easily.

 

2 hours ago, Snarky said:

i get it Jasper.  in my Snarky way i am trying to say no one, or 10 of us doing (or not doing) normal activity will affect the market.

 

Starting about 6 months? ago I noticed a crazy trend in the uncommon salvage.  now i am seeing stuff that makes no sense in the i/o market

 

This is false.  There are certainly whales, and their actions can be outsized.  Not just because they have a lot of inf, but because they have a lot of knowledge about how things actually work.  They also probably have a lot of alts, a lot of market slots, and a lot of patience.  There are only a few thousand active players at this point, and I think it's a very safe assumption that there are probably a dozen or so who are "behind" things like the great purple accumulation or the LotG crash.  That said, humans and vampires alike tend to come up with conspiracy theories about how someone is out to get them when it's really just a dynamic system working its way out.  And never, never forget that at the end of the day, it's player demand that is driving things and that has dropped like a lead balloon in 2022.  And I, for one, am not going to be the one standing there with a big pile of useless inventory when the music stops.

 

All this is based on my opinions, observations, and experiences.  I'm pretty sure that it's mostly accurate but maybe there really are meetings of the shadowy cabal and I just didn't get invited!

[Snarky]

21 minutes ago, Xaddy said:

I have no evidence of anything, beyond observation. And - I don't see everything, so even that makes my opinion less valid. 

I wouldn't be surprised to learn that those who control the code are behind these marketing schemes. We've been told that the marketing code is all spaghetti string, with very little duct tape to hold it all together. Just mucking with it could bring the digital world to a screeching halt. So - rationally thinking, odds are certainly against that kind of possibility. I do understand that - I am just saying I wouldn't be surprised. Besides, how can I trust the words of some stranger saying they've seen the code and it is horribly bloated and convoluted? I cannot. But, I certainly can't say they're lying, I haven't seen it. 

I'd love to look at it - but not enough to download it see it. It would likely take up far more room on my system than I'd like, and just having it...I'd still have to give it all a very good look to even know what I was looking at. No telling how much or little it's documented, and if it would even make sense. 

I'll leave it at that. I could bring up farming or reduced farming, but I've no evidence of that. I just know I've stopped. 
 

1st paragraph synopsis: You know nothing

2nd paragraph synopsis: You know nothing

3rd paragraph synopsis: You would love to know something, but it would take too much work

4th paragraph synopsis: you are okay with that. and youre not farming

 

thank you for the insight.  have a great holiday

[Snarky]

4 minutes ago, Yomo Kimyata said:

 

This is true.  There is SO MUCH STUFF out there, and thanks to converters it's all topographically equivalent.  A Trap of the Hunter = a Luck of the Gambler.  Entomb = Avalanche.

 

 

This is true.  Your traditional market providers have gotten tired of providing liquidity, since they have enough inf to do anything.  The Buy/Sell-it-nao crowd are in charge and they are complainy!

 

 

This is true.  Lots of people (or a small number of people with a huge number of things in storage) have cleaned house.  It's still happening in a lot of places.  I've come to realize that the big converter dump around 27:4 was a few big time farmers going through all their alts and dumping all their merits and emp merits.  I mean, how many unused merits do you think there are *still* in the system right now?  Millions, easily.

 

 

This is false.  There are certainly whales, and their actions can be outsized.  Not just because they have a lot of inf, but because they have a lot of knowledge about how things actually work.  They also probably have a lot of alts, a lot of market slots, and a lot of patience.  There are only a few thousand active players at this point, and I think it's a very safe assumption that there are probably a dozen or so who are "behind" things like the great purple accumulation or the LotG crash.  That said, humans and vampires alike tend to come up with conspiracy theories about how someone is out to get them when it's really just a dynamic system working its way out.  And never, never forget that at the end of the day, it's player demand that is driving things and that has dropped like a lead balloon in 2022.  And I, for one, am not going to be the one standing there with a big pile of useless inventory when the music stops.

 

All this is based on my opinions, observations, and experiences.  I'm pretty sure that it's mostly accurate but maybe there really are meetings of the shadowy cabal and I just didn't get invited!

Thank you Yomo.  

 

(*points at Yomo.  "pssst.  a whale")

 

Your analysis is comforting.  Your insight is welcome.

 

It still does not explain the odd bid history I am seeing vs the way I am moving stuff on the market.  But that bid history screen is a pos anyway.  not talking about point of sale either.

 

Anyways.  Happy Holidays!

[Rahabina]

16 hours ago, Snarky said:

I may just quit the AH/Inf system and self support through merits.  I have no time in my life to be screwed by people who WANT to be used car salesmen so desperately they train in old CoH

 

To be clear I think the AH system has been brute force hacked somehow, with some leverage placed on it or a kink in the code someone has discovered in timing of bids, etc

I do find at times prices can be rediculously high.  I get bored of farming real fast but keep enough inf on hand (collectively) to be able to slot something and i find like you, having merits is nice, especially for winter sets.  I try and sell my stuff lower than most.  It is a free game and it is nice to give back.  People jacking up the price on things may want to remember that and help the poor players who can't afford these prices

Edited December 23, 2022 by Rahabina

[BlackSpectre]

What’s the deal with the purples like Armageddon? They used to sell for 25 mil each, for 2 years straight, but now they’re 15 mil. That’s a lot of lost profit. 
 

good for buyers but bad for sellers. 

[Spaghetti Betty]

19 hours ago, Snarky said:

i do not actually have a ton of inf in CoH

Oh, well that's surprising to know.

 

19 hours ago, Snarky said:

liquid a couple billion and a base chock full of i/o

Oh, well that's surprising to know. "A small loan of a million dollars"

 

 

In all seriousness, I haven't been paying that much attention to the market lately. I've been able to coast on that huge influx of impatient people that were buying PAPs for billions a few months ago. Thanks!

I have noticed that a few LoTGs I put up about a week and a half ago have yet to sell at a price I would deem reasonable. And I wasn't waiting for uncommon salvage to come down from 6k just so I could craft a few Purps. Oh yeah, and those are down too.

Hm, maybe a decent analysis could be gained from watching prices on IOs like sleep and stun. Those are usually the go-to trash IOs for converting into gold. I would surmise that a flux in the price of these and salvage aligning with a price drop in everything else means players are inadvertently creating stock for alts that don't exist. Either way, the safe bet is to just blame Yomo.

Edited December 23, 2022 by Spaghetti Betty

[Ukase]

3 hours ago, Yomo Kimyata said:

And I, for one, am not going to be the one standing there with a big pile of useless inventory when the music stops.

This behavior carries its own set of risks. 

Let us consider the stockpile of loot (Enhancements, converters, etc) vs stockpile of inf. 

Some may say, inventory is meaningless with sufficient influence. No. This is not true. That is, not completely. If we were to look ahead, and if the writing is indeed on the wall and the population will drop, suppose you're someone who may have sold everything because when the music stopped, you wanted to be sure of a seat. 

For whatever reason, you return to the game after a departure, and you still have your stockpiles of inf. But where will you turn for the very rare or the avalanche that you need? You may certainly exchange merits for them...if you had some before you left. And suddenly, you look to the AH and ...there's no inventory! Other players came along and bought them, and nobody replenished the supply. After all, it's a ghost-town, right? 

Granted, that's pure conjecture and highly unlikely to happen. At least parts of it are highly unlikely. Still, you never want to unload everything on the off-chance you may return. 
You cannot take it with you. And that's a shame. I'm playing on Thunderspy now, and I'm broke. Still, even if I could take it with me, they don't have a lot of stuff I'd want on the AH. Most of the good stuff seems to be seeded at a set price. There's very little to market here. I bought my blaster ATOs for 600 inf. 100 inf for each piece! But, I digress. 

Whether it's in the form of converters, reward merits or inf, you should be fine. And purples..well, eventually, I'd expect the price to increase. Slowly. Or, it may be that they're eventually seeded, or included in hero/winter packs. Who knows? These crazy devs are likely to do anything! 

As for my thoughts on the market, who knows? It ain't me. I'm not even playing here except on Fridays. 

[Snarky]

I am only bitching about this because I been putting off crafting for a few months. Now i am in the process of crafting/convert/sell a few hundred enhancers.  Pain in the butarsky

Edited December 24, 2022 by Snarky