Some Market Observations

[Troyusrex]

I've been doing a lot of trading since July and and keeping notes on it since August so I thought I'd share my observations. This has made me very rich and I'd like to give back. I've traded based on Shinobu's excellent post. This involves buying lvl 31 recipes, crafting them, converting them to rare, converting those rares to other more valuable rares and selling them.

 

Since I've started tracking in August I've sold over 1,310 enhancements. The average enhancement has sold for $1,801,447 (more on how I price things below). 

 

Once converted to rare it takes, on average, 2.74 conversions to convert it to something reliably selling for over $1,000,000. 

 

Each one makes a tidy profit as shown below:

 

Recipe	-26,000
Craft	-48,200
Convert to rare	-180,000
Convert to valuable	-243,000
Sell fee	-180,000
Sell Price	1,800,000
Profit	1,122,800

*Note: I mostly make my own converters, but have valued them at 90,000 each for this calculation.  

 

 

I used to try to price enhancements individually based on going rates, but found this had several drawbacks 1) it's slow as rates don't always show up quickly in the display 2) I left a lot of unsold items if I valued things during a high priced period (such as the weekends). Eventually, I found that selling items right around a million was ideal (I vary the price a bit each time so if items go unsold I can tell exactly which batch they are from). I played around with pricing everything just under one million versus pricing it enough over 1 million to not be easy to game (like 1,000,201). I actually found I got the same average prices from each but sold under or at 1 million sold a tiny bit faster on average. 

 

Some other observations:

• Prices seem to be rising as my average sell price has gone from about $1,600,000 in August to almost $2,000,000 in September (for an overall average of $1,801,447). It could, however, be that I'm getting better at knowing what's valuable. 
• Not everything I thought would sell high does. For instance Nuimna's +recovery doesn't sell that well or for great prices
• The easiest way to figure out what will and won't sell is to just try selling everything and over time seeing what stays in your Selling tab. This is a bit more expense at first due to posting fees, but you'll quickly get a feel for what sells
• Having a portable workbench is super helpful. Often while waiting for TFs or BAFs to start I sit there and convert enhancements. 
• I mostly create these enhancements as something to do between hunting bad guys. I don't really care about the money. Still, it's given me enough cash to fully purple out multiple alts and have a few billion lying around to boot. Plus, it makes me feel good that I'm providing lots of enhancements to the community since we all need this stuff!
• At some points the the global recharge variety of LoTG sells for millions more than the other items in the LoTG set. If I happen to notice it (I don't often take the time to look) converting any defense that comes up to LoTG and then to the global recharge variety can pay off. But this can really eat up converters and unless the cost difference is over 2 million, isn't always cost effective. 

 

I hope this post was helpful to someone. I can say that @Shinobu's post was amazingly helpful to me. 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 22, 2019 by Troyusrex
Typo

[tidge]

One thing I will point out from your post is that it looks like you have estimated on average the use of about 5 converters (2 to get to rare, 3 more after that) to get to a  'saleable' IO. This is roughly in line with my estimates. 5 converters at peak market prices are 0.5M inf (0.42M above), and you are showing a profit of 1.2M. I've never believed or observed the sale of converters to be the path to market riches despite a long stretch of advice as that being the way to go. I'm glad users dump converters on the market, I simply don't see the return on them.

[Troyusrex]

7 hours ago, tidge said:

One thing I will point out from your post is that it looks like you have estimated on average the use of about 5 converters (2 to get to rare, 3 more after that) to get to a  'saleable' IO. This is roughly in line with my estimates. 5 converters at peak market prices are 0.5M inf (0.42M above), and you are showing a profit of 1.2M. I've never believed or observed the sale of converters to be the path to market riches despite a long stretch of advice as that being the way to go. I'm glad users dump converters on the market, I simply don't see the return on them.

I kept track of over 1,300 conversions and trades and 2 to get to rare and 2.74 to get to 'saleable' is the actual average not an estimate.  The point is I kept rigourous track of everything for these trades including all the costs and what they sold for and am sharing the data. 

 

Converting certainly is one path to market riches. It may well not be the quickest or most profitable, but it is a steady stream of reliable income. 

 

[DSorrow]

7 hours ago, tidge said:

One thing I will point out from your post is that it looks like you have estimated on average the use of about 5 converters (2 to get to rare, 3 more after that) to get to a  'saleable' IO. This is roughly in line with my estimates. 5 converters at peak market prices are 0.5M inf (0.42M above), and you are showing a profit of 1.2M. I've never believed or observed the sale of converters to be the path to market riches despite a long stretch of advice as that being the way to go. I'm glad users dump converters on the market, I simply don't see the return on them.

Converters are probably the best way to turn merits to inf. Maybe not optimal in the sense that you could use them for converting yourself, but if you just want to run a TF, get something with your merits and sell them at the AH for simple profit, then converters are a good go-to.

[tidge]

2 hours ago, Troyusrex said:

I kept track of over 1,300 conversions and trades and 2 to get to rare and 2.74 to get to 'saleable' is the actual average not an estimate.  The point is I kept rigourous track of everything for these trades including all the costs and what they sold for and am sharing the data. 

 

Converting certainly is one path to market riches. It may well not be the quickest or most profitable, but it is a steady stream of reliable income. 

 

I'm not questioning your numbers, I rounded to the nearest integer since most players can't sell fractional converters. Relax.

[Heraclea]

Your process is very similar to mine.  The difference is that I try to avoid, to the extent possible, buying or selling anything with inf.  Instead, I craft what drops with salvage that dropped.  Then I use converters on those drops until they happen upon something that one character or another can use.  These often get Frankenslotted for their actual enhancement effects, especially by lowbies. 

[AboveTheChemist]

I have made similar observations over the last couple of months, although my sales volume is a fraction of yours. I was going to post my own thread but given that my methods and results are similar I hope you don't mind if I just post my results in here.

 

My inspiration came from several posts by Shinobu, Zolgar, and Robotech_Master (linked at the bottom). My method was to buy level 31 uncommon recipes, craft them, convert to rare, then convert that rare to another rare. I would convert until I found something that sold reliably for over 1 million inf, except in the case where I landed in a category with one or more particularly lucrative sets (like LotG in Defense), in which case I'd convert by type until I landed on something that sold for several million. I almost never converted in-set unless I happened to land on the dog of a set which otherwise had lucrative members.

 

My dataset consisted of 160 total enhancements, sold between August 3 and Sept 22. I crafted & converted in lots of 10 and kept track of them by lot but the overall results are all I present here. I estimated my total recipe, crafting, and salvage cost at 50,400 inf and my cost per converter at 85,000 inf.

 

On average each enhancement required 4.96 converters, and the average sale price was 2,640,000 inf. Average profit was 1,905,000 inf.

 

I priced each item individually, depending on the apparent demand for the item and my own experience with how well it sold. I had to relist 10 of the 160 enhancements. I was (and still am) quite patient with the market, so I'd normally wait at least a week (including at least one weekend) before relisting.

 

I don't necessarily know if my method maximizes profit, but overall I am happy with the results. My goal is to be able to afford good sets, and is not necessarily to get super rich. At the moment I don't outfit my characters with anything more expensive than ATOs or the odd PVP IO (like the Panacea proc), mostly because I don't yet have a character that I love playing exclusively enough to justify buying purples or other expensive IOs.

 

This also isn't my only marketing method. I also like to craft and sell dropped recipes that look like they will turn a profit based on salvage and crafting cost. I strategically convert a few of these if they are in lucrative sets (like Defense), but for the most part I just craft and sell. I am still collating data (as they say) on that practice.

 

The guides I used were:

Shinobu: Zero to 100 Million in a Week

Zolgar: A quick and dirty crash course in Enhancement Converters

Robotech_Master: How to Make Millions on the Market in Minutes

 

By the time Shinobu posted the excellent Craft & Convert: Detailed Step-by-Step Guide, I had already more or less settled into my craft and convert method, but that guide gave me confidence that I was definitely on the right track.

Edited September 23, 2019 by AboveTheChemist

[DR_Mechano]

On 9/22/2019 at 1:27 PM, Troyusrex said:

Some other observations:

• Prices seem to be rising as my average sell price has gone from about $1,600,000 in August to almost $2,000,000 in September (for an overall average of $1,801,447). It could, however, be that I'm getting better at knowing what's valuable. 
• Not everything I thought would sell high does. For instance Nuimna's +recovery doesn't sell that well or for great prices
• The easiest way to figure out what will and won't sell is to just try selling everything and over time seeing what stays in your Selling tab. This is a bit more expense at first due to posting fees, but you'll quickly get a feel for what sells
• Having a portable workbench is super helpful. Often while waiting for TFs or BAFs to start I sit there and convert enhancements. 
• I mostly create these enhancements as something to do between hunting bad guys. I don't really care about the money. Still, it's given me enough cash to fully purple out multiple alts and have a few billion lying around to boot. Plus, it makes me feel good that I'm providing lots of enhancements to the community since we all need this stuff!
• At some points the the global recharge variety of LoTG sells for millions more than the other items in the LoTG set. If I happen to notice it (I don't often take the time to look) converting any defense that comes up to LoTG and then to the global recharge variety can pay off. But this can really eat up converters and unless the cost difference is over 2 million, isn't always cost effective.

I will, personally say, that, as suggested by other forumites going with 41s is usually a better option over 31s since you cull a LOT of chafe from the recipe pool meaning you lose less convertors BUT the cost of crafting is more so its sort of swings and roundabouts really.

 

Remember we have what I like to call 'stable sellers' And the LotG set is one of them, everyone wants them and is willing to buy the cheaper ones in the hopes of converting into the recharge one (or just because they want the set bonuses whilst still getting the recharge). While the rest of the set may not reach the heights of the Global recharge, it's usually only 2 million less since they tend to sell for 5 million while the recharge sells for 7 so it's often not worth the 270k per roll (based on convertors costing 90k each and 3 per inset roll) since you can end up blowing like 10 rolls trying to get the recharge and that's 2.7 million down the toilet.

 

Also one lesson I learned is that todays top seller may be tomorrows flooded market. Be sure to keep an eye out on that. Unbreakable guard recently had the market flooded with IOs meaning they massively dropped in value until the cheap excess could be sold off and they've climbed back up. Certain Obliteration IOs have hundred and hundreds sitting on the market while other parts of the set have almost no supply.

 

I remember Preventative Medicine being a good earner a few months back but the market for that good MASSIVELY flooded and still hasn't recovered.

 

 

Edited September 25, 2019 by DR_Mechano

[Yomo Kimyata]

2 hours ago, DR_Mechano said:

 

Also one lesson I learned is that todays top seller may be tomorrows flooded market. Be sure to keep an eye out on that. Unbreakable guard recently had the market flooded with IOs meaning they massively dropped in value until the cheap excess could be sold off and they've climbed back up. Certain Obliteration IOs have hundred and hundreds sitting on the market while other parts of the set have almost no supply.

 

Intuitively, you would think that prices on Unbreakable Guard dropped because someone chose to offer a lot in the market, and people reacted by cutting their bids.  But I think that prices dropped because someone chose to offer a lot in the market at a really low price.  If that person had crafted a few hundred and offered them at a "historic demand" level, they probably would have sold them all, just maybe not in a day.

 

Demand seems pretty consistent for a lot of standards.  I feel like the variability is mainly coming from where people are willing to sell.

 

Of course, people can dump in the market as much as they want.  Have at it!  I craft a lot less than I used to and buy up the crafted IOs that people dump a lot more.

[AboveTheChemist]

17 hours ago, DR_Mechano said:

I will, personally say, that, as suggested by other forumites going with 41s is usually a better option over 31s since you cull a LOT of chafe from the recipe pool...

I have heard this several times too so I decided to try and quantify it. I used the wiki enhancement sets page, which I know it isn't 100% representative of the enhancements as they exist on Homecoming, but I think it is close enough.

 

These enhancements are excluded when crafting at 41 instead of 31:

 

Melee Damage: Smashing Haymaker, Kinetic Combat, Focused Smite, Touch of Death
Pet Damage: Brilliant Leadership, Edict of the Master
Ranged Damage: Maelstrom's Fury, Entropic Chaos, Ruin, Decimation
Healing: Harmonized Healing, Miracle
Defense: Serendipity, Gift of the Ancients
Resist Damage: Reactive Armor, Impervium Armor

 

That list is far shorter than I expected, with the notable absence of anything from the mez sets. The definition of chaff in this case is certainly subjective, but I consider most of the mez sets to be chaff, and there are a few on the list above that I don't consider chaff. Losing Serendipity and Gift of the Ancients is nice, and should make converting within Defense to the holy grail of LoTG easier. Likewise, losing Reactive Armor and Impervium Armor from Resist Damage makes it easier to get to most lucrative members of that set.

 

Overall I agree that there do seem to be benefits to crafting at 41 rather than 31, but I was just a bit surprised that the list of enhancements that were excluded wasn't longer.

[Yomo Kimyata]

I think Sting of the Manticore is added at 35, but your thesis is strong.  Offhand, I'm not sure what the crafting cost at 31 is v. 41.  Is it worth an enhancement converter and an extra rare roll?

[AboveTheChemist]

The cost difference between 31 and 41 is (based on the wiki numbers) 73,060 inf. So a little less than one converter. One thing I hadn't considered is that by removing the sets I listed from the potential pool, I think it might lower the chance of landing in those particular categories. I'm going to have a look and see if I can come up with some numbers for that. I'll add in Sting of the Manitcore, too. It hadn't occurred to me to check to see if any sets would join the list but after looking over the list again I think that is the only one that would.

[Yomo Kimyata]

22 minutes ago, AboveTheChemist said:

One thing I hadn't considered is that by removing the sets I listed from the potential pool, I think it might lower the chance of landing in those particular categories. I'm going to have a look and see if I can come up with some numbers for that. 

The quickest way is not always the most profitable, but it might be the most profitable per click.

 

I used to have a marketing toon whose only job was to buy lvl 31 Serendipity and Gift of the Ancients.  If they converted to Reactive Defenses or Red Fortune, I’d sell them to another toon in blocks at lvl 41 to improve the odds of converting to LotG.

 

I dont think the demand is deep enough any more to reach that deeply for supply, but I made lots of inf that way.

[AboveTheChemist]

Here are the numbers I came up with. The table shows, for each category, the numbers of rare sets within and the percent chance of landing within that category via a conversion by rarity, both for levels 31 and 41. This assumes a few things:

 

1. The general conversion method of an initial uncommon to rare conversion within category, then conversion by rarity until a desired category/set is reached. This is a common technique but certainly not the only effective technique.
2. The starting point is an economically undesirable category containing a single set. The percentages are computed by dividing by N-1, where N is the total number of sets. One has to start somewhere, and one can't convert by rarity into the same set. For instance, assume that the starting point is Immobilize, whose percent chance would initially be 0%. If starting from a category with more than one set, then the initial percent chance for that category would change.
3. I pulled the information from the wiki, but I included Sudden Acceleration and Annihilation, which are in Homecoming but not listed on the wiki. If there are any other missing sets please let me know. 

My main takeaway from looking at these numbers is that even though switching from level 31 to 41 may remove some of the chaff sets, it slightly increases the chance of landing in the chaff sets that remain, and also slightly decreases the chance of landing in some of the more lucrative categories. That's a general observation and not necessarily applicable to all categories. I honestly don't know what it might mean for profitability, and I think it might take running a lot of sales and doing a comparison using both level 31 and level 41 starting points to get to the bottom of that, and I don't think that project is in the cards for me.

 

I think a slightly more interesting comparison might be to categorize the level 31 and 41 sets not by effect but by general profitability/value, and do a comparison of those percentages as I have done here. My overall familiarity with the profitability of every single rare set isn't good enough to allow me to do that without spending some time in-game looking up market prices, but I may take some notes while I am in the AH over the next week or so and see if I can come up with something.

 

If you notice any errors please let me know!

 

Edited September 26, 2019 by AboveTheChemist

[Troyusrex]

On 9/26/2019 at 10:52 AM, AboveTheChemist said:

Overall I agree that there do seem to be benefits to crafting at 41 rather than 31, but I was just a bit surprised that the list of enhancements that were excluded wasn't longer.

This is an excellent analysis. Thanks for sharing! 

[AboveTheChemist]

Below are the results of my (admittedly rough) attempt to categorize the sets according to general profitability. As with my previous post, the table shows, for each category, the numbers of rare sets within and the percent chance of landing within each profitability category via a conversion by rarity, both for levels 31 and 41.

 

The assumptions are similar to those above, and I've hidden them and my methods behind spoiler tags for those that just want to see the results. Beware the wall of text hidden below!

 

Spoiler

This assumes a general conversion method of an initial uncommon to rare conversion within category, then conversion by rarity until a desired category/set is reached. This is a common technique but certainly not the only effective technique.

 

This assumes starting point is an unprofitable set. The percentages are computed by dividing by N-1, where N is the total number of sets. One has to start somewhere, and one can't convert by rarity into the same set. The percent chance of landing in an unprofitable set is computed using (S-1)/(N-1) where S is the number of sets within the unprofitable category. This accounts for starting in the unprofitable set. Conversion from within the profitable or highly profitable category will change the percentages slightly.

 

I pulled the information from the auction house in-game, so all sets should be accounted for.

 

In order to determine profitability, I roughly estimated the average of the last 5 auction price listings as shown in the in-game auction house for each rare enhancement within each rare set. Then for each set I roughly estimated the average for all enhancements to determine the average for the overall set. This was done twice, once each on this past Saturday and Sunday, at around 1-2 PM Eastern. "Roughly estimated" means that I took the average in my head, with the goal of getting within the ballpark of 250,000 inf of the true average. Using a calculator would have been more exact but more time consuming, and I'm comfortable enough determining the rough average of 5-6 numbers in my head that I felt this was appropriate. In other words, a rough average seemed fine for the level of detail I wanted.

 

In some cases, there are some enhancements that are worth 2-3 times more than any other member of that particular set. It might be worth it to look at this at the enhancement level, and I don't think it would be that much more work to do that, but I wanted to keep this at the set level for now so any outlier enhancements were averaged in with the rest of the set. I might revisit this on the enhancement level at some point.

 

For enhancements with an average price of 1 million or less, I simply rounded to 1 million to make estimating the set averages a little easier.

 

I felt like taking snapshots of the data over the weekend, when the market is more active and prices generally favor the seller, would yield a "best case scenario" for prices. Each day's sampling took about an hour to collect. Two sample points is a really small number of samples, but again I was going for a rough level of detail and I don't plan on making a dissertation out of this. Consider also that an enhancement's value fluctuates for many reasons so a similar snapshot taken a month from now won't necessarily look the same.

 

I considered any set with an average price of 3 million or above to be highly profitable. Initially, I considered the cutoff between profitable and unprofitable to be 1 million, but then I noticed that resulted in many sets that I personally will convert showing up in the profitable category. So I made the cutoff 1.5 million and that seemed to more accurately reflect the line between "keep" and "convert". Of course this is highly subjective, and one could easily argue for moving the boundaries between categories.

 

Overall, the results don't seem to indicate a compelling reason to favor either scenario, especially considering that these are based on rough estimations and the differences are on the order of a few percentage points. One thing that stands out is that of the five profitable sets that are dropped by going from 31 to 41, three of these (Decimation, Impervium Armor, and Kinetic Combat) are at the upper end of the profitable scale. Each of us has our own notion of where profitability begins, though, so applying one's own logic might yield results that favor one method or the other.

 

 

Edited September 30, 2019 by AboveTheChemist
clarifications

[Ukase]

I really have to applaud the diligence of taking notes on what you're selling/buying, etc. I don't do that at all. 

That said...here's my observations: Selling anything for 1million? That's just not worth the time. I want sales of at least $3M for each IO. So, I burn through a few more converters. But it's paid off for me. 

Always take note of how many are on the auction block. There are people who played the market back when the HC CoH first came back, and prices were much higher. Numina's proc used to sell for a lot more than it does now, that's certain! I don't take notes, so I can't say, but pretty sure they were close to 8M inf. So, stands to reason that a percentage of ALL the typical money makers are for sale, but will likely never sell, because they're priced too high for today's market. 

If there are less than 30 of the items for sale, you still have to look at the other IOs within the set. You don't want to be too greedy, or people will buy the cheaper IOs within the set and convert, leaving you without a sale. If they're all pretty low in inventory, you can probably afford to sell at a good price. One that's fair, not excessive. I think 4M for any damage resistance armor is about as high as you should go, but not as high as you could go, as an example. 

Currently, LotG 7.5% seem to be dropping in price..for now. Whomever is selling them is either wanting to manipulate the price, or is just wanting super quick sales. I have a number of these for sale at what used to be the going price. I aim to wait out the cheap sellers, because the LotG 7.5% are simply worth the 7-8M price. They're so valuable in my mind, I really think they should be going for 10M, but the market disagrees. So, I price to sell in the 7-8M range. 

If the market says they're not worth that much over the long haul, that's fine. I have characters that will level up and use them eventually, and I'll save inf instead of make it. 

Interesting that you use level 31's, presumably to save on crafting costs. But, you have to be careful. Some recipes are going to be cheaper in converter costs by using level 41 recipes. Or level 10's. Etc. Some of you will immediately know what I'm talking about. I'm confident the rest of you will figure it out in due time. 

Really, though, I love the diligence of taking notes, just wish I had been doing the same. 

[AboveTheChemist]

I take notes mainly for two reasons.

1. Economics is nowhere near my strong suit and playing in this virtual economy is not intuitive to me so I need a way to keep track of what I have done and the prices that I have seen so that I can determine what works and what I need to do to get better at it.
2. Frankly, the last 5 listings info is better than nothing, but not much better. I could probably write a separate page-long rant about how much I dislike it, but in a nutshell even when it is working correctly, it can provide misleading information, especially to those without market experience. It's also subject to several bugs, and I've spent a decent amount of time documenting and posting about those bugs. My notetaking is a way to try to get a bigger picture of prices that the last 5 listings window just doesn't allow.

You may be right that selling for 1 million isn't worth the time, but I tend to be conservative with my converters so it seemed a reasonable start point. My next project is actually to repeat my previous data gathering attempt, but using a higher floor of profitablity (probably 2 million), just to see how the numbers compare. Overall though, given my spending habits, using 1 million as the starting point has more than allowed me the budget to outfit my characters exactly how I want them. I won't begin to claim it's optimal, though, and it likely won't be optimal for someone with more expensive tastes or with more than a handful of alts to outfit.

 

I disagree that the LoTG global recharge IO is dropping in price, but most of my observation has been from the bottom end of the saleable price range. For the past few months I've been consistently able to fill all my orders for that IO within a day or two at a certain price, but over the past several weeks the bids I have had out for that IO have done nothing at that price. So, I bumped it up half a million and the bids filled within a couple of days. I haven't sold enough of that IO to be able to speak to the top end of the sale range, but the ones I have sold seem to consistently go for 7M.

 

I used the level 31 recipes because that's what the guides recommended, especially for those like me starting out with barely two nickles to rub together who needed to save on crafting costs. My most recent posts address my thoughts and observations on the level 31 vs level 41 debate, but as I clearly stated, those assume a starting point of an unprofitable set and conversion by rarity. If starting from within a more profitable category and trying to convert within category, then yes, depending on the starting category, the advantage of using level 41 recipes is more apparent, especially if the desired outcome is to convert into one of the highly profitable sets.

Edited October 3, 2019 by AboveTheChemist

[Yomo Kimyata]

3 hours ago, AboveTheChemist said:

I take notes mainly for two reasons.

 

1. Frankly, the last 5 listings info is better than nothing, but not much better. I could probably write a separate page-long rant about how much I dislike it, but in a nutshell even when it is working correctly, it can provide misleading information, especially to those without market experience. It's also subject to several bugs, and I've spent a decent amount of time documenting and posting about those bugs. My notetaking is a way to try to get a bigger picture of prices that the last 5 listings window just doesn't allow.

You may be right that selling for 1 million isn't worth the time, but I tend to be conservative with my converters so it seemed a reasonable start point. My next project is actually to repeat my previous data gathering attempt, but using a higher floor of profitablity (probably 2 million), just to see how the numbers compare. Overall though, given my spending habits, using 1 million as the starting point has more than allowed me the budget to outfit my characters exactly how I want them. I won't begin to claim it's optimal, though, and it likely won't be optimal for someone with more expensive tastes or with more than a handful of alts to outfit.

 

Last 5 is a dirty, dirty liar.  But I wouldn’t change a thing about it.  When people say “X” is going for “Y” inf, it generally just means that’s where the last trade posted.  It has some predictive value as to where the next trade will be, but not enough that anyone should say, wow the market has shifted.  Believe me when I say that a major shift in a market is usually due to a single person screwing around.

 

i generally price my items to sell by “next log in” so that varies from toon to toon.  But I also generally avoid IOS priced <1-2mm.  If there is a lot of flow in them, I’m happy to trade Crushing Impacts, you can easily double your money.  But you really can’t sell hundreds or thousands of them in a day, I don’t think.

[Snakebit]

9 hours ago, Ukase said:

I really have to applaud the diligence of taking notes on what you're selling/buying, etc. I don't do that at all. 

That said...here's my observations: Selling anything for 1million? That's just not worth the time. I want sales of at least $3M for each IO. So, I burn through a few more converters. But it's paid off for me. 

Always take note of how many are on the auction block. There are people who played the market back when the HC CoH first came back, and prices were much higher. Numina's proc used to sell for a lot more than it does now, that's certain! I don't take notes, so I can't say, but pretty sure they were close to 8M inf. So, stands to reason that a percentage of ALL the typical money makers are for sale, but will likely never sell, because they're priced too high for today's market. 

If there are less than 30 of the items for sale, you still have to look at the other IOs within the set. You don't want to be too greedy, or people will buy the cheaper IOs within the set and convert, leaving you without a sale. If they're all pretty low in inventory, you can probably afford to sell at a good price. One that's fair, not excessive. I think 4M for any damage resistance armor is about as high as you should go, but not as high as you could go, as an example. 

Currently, LotG 7.5% seem to be dropping in price..for now. Whomever is selling them is either wanting to manipulate the price, or is just wanting super quick sales. I have a number of these for sale at what used to be the going price. I aim to wait out the cheap sellers, because the LotG 7.5% are simply worth the 7-8M price. They're so valuable in my mind, I really think they should be going for 10M, but the market disagrees. So, I price to sell in the 7-8M range. 

If the market says they're not worth that much over the long haul, that's fine. I have characters that will level up and use them eventually, and I'll save inf instead of make it. 

Interesting that you use level 31's, presumably to save on crafting costs. But, you have to be careful. Some recipes are going to be cheaper in converter costs by using level 41 recipes. Or level 10's. Etc. Some of you will immediately know what I'm talking about. I'm confident the rest of you will figure it out in due time. 

Really, though, I love the diligence of taking notes, just wish I had been doing the same. 

I've crafted and sold about 25 of them in the last 2 days, I post at the average of the last 5 -10%. I do that on every IO I sell. 

 

I've decided to forgo recipes and just buy IO's. I have kept bids on a few that I can reliably buy at less than 300k, and to my surprise they flow in at a pretty decent clip. I feel like if I use merit converters then I can afford to use 9, if I used AH converters I can use 6. I went from 20m in seed money for a newly PL'd fire farmer to 170m in two days. I took a break from converter roulette and did about 9 Super Packs along the way. I kinda like them. The return is worth it. 

 

I do still craft, but not nearly as much. Recipes I want to keep and defense/health recipes that I can convert. The defense/health recipes I'm not willing to pay enough for to get a lot of. 

[MunkiLord]

17 hours ago, Yomo Kimyata said:

Believe me when I say that a major shift in a market is usually due to a single person screwing around.

Miracle +Recovery has shown some odd behavior the last few days, and I'm not talking about the display bug. Unless everyone is suddenly bidding the exact same amount, someone is buying them up as fast as they can.

[Yomo Kimyata]

33 minutes ago, MunkiLord said:

Miracle +Recovery has shown some odd behavior the last few days, and I'm not talking about the display bug. Unless everyone is suddenly bidding the exact same amount, someone is buying them up as fast as they can.

Case in point.  When the display bug kicks in I buy and sell hundreds of them a day.  One in 5-10 people pay 10mm+ due to the display bug.  That one trick has sent many of my toons to college, graduate school, and Congress.

 

Interesting note.  Demand for what I consider to be a staple is pretty stable at 100-200 a day. 

[MunkiLord]

1 hour ago, Yomo Kimyata said:

Case in point.  When the display bug kicks in I buy and sell hundreds of them a day.  One in 5-10 people pay 10mm+ due to the display bug.  That one trick has sent many of my toons to college, graduate school, and Congress.

 

Interesting note.  Demand for what I consider to be a staple is pretty stable at 100-200 a day. 

This bug is one of my favorites. I don't always work Miracles, but when I do they'll immediately sell like they are now, or I'll get some of the major overbids. Since that particular character I'm using is short on market slots, this is extremely helpful for me either way.

[Yomo Kimyata]

2 minutes ago, MunkiLord said:

This bug is one of my favorites. I don't always work Miracles, but when I do they'll immediately sell like they are now, or I'll get some of the major overbids. Since that particular character I'm using is short on market slots, this is extremely helpful for me either way.

Then I am doing it wrong.  I’m usually geared up to make first sales and first buys, hundreds at a time.  If you are getting even one of the overbids, I’m doing something wrong or there is an error in the queue.

[MunkiLord]

3 minutes ago, Yomo Kimyata said:

Then I am doing it wrong.  I’m usually geared up to make first sales and first buys, hundreds at a time.  If you are getting even one of the overbids, I’m doing something wrong or there is an error in the queue.

I haven't got any overbids the last few days, previous instances of the display bug I would on occasion. Right now it appears you're insta buying any Miracles I post. Which works for me since I can use those market slots on other areas I'm trying out.

Edited October 4, 2019 by MunkiLord