Incarnate reward chances?

[sindyr]

So after an incarnate mission you can choose, among other things, an Empyrean merit, or a piece of Incarnate Salvage which might be common, uncommon, rare or very rare. Since 1 rare Incarnate Salvage = 8 Emps, and 1 very rare Incarnate Salvage = 30 Emps, for all I know it may be advantageous to take my chances with the random piece of salvage instead of the 1 guaranteed Emp merit.

 

Does anyone know where I can get info about the drop chances of incarnate salvage as and end of mission chain reward?

 

Thanks.

[Snarky]

Emp merits flow like water if you run your 50. Like so many things in game the focus we have on how to maximize is almost detrimental unless you are tweaking a fire farmer. And even that gets silly. Just grab a fire armor throw on some i/o and do not crank it so much your kill speed goes to dog turd. 
 

if you run a 50 for a few weeks (20-25hrs a week?) then you will be well kitted out with incarnate abilities.  To try to squueze this number down to how few hours in some weird formula is....wait what why. Just run the character in content. Any content you like. Have fun. It will happen

 

conversely if you dont enjoy doing it grab a diffeeent alt you do like and just go do that. The point is to enjoy the game

Edited January 2, 2020 by Snarky

[quixoteprog]

I have not done the math, but since you need so many components of every rarity to get your slots all up to T4 I am guessing you are better off always taking the random roll.

 

I have taken the merit once because I had 7 and needed one more to make a rare comp. But when you consider the components necessary to make each (I think this is right, but not certain, please correct me if I'm wrong)

 

T1 is 3 common

T2 requires 1T1 and 2 common and one uncommon

T3 requires 1T2 and 2 common and 1 rare.

T4 you need 2T3s and 2 common and 1 very rare

 

That is 16 common, 2 uncommon, 2 rare and 1 very rare to make 1 T4. Since (IIRC) it possible to break down rare stuff into more common things (mostly threads I think, that can be made into common and uncommon) taking the component is almost always the right thing. Not sure what the stats are on how often each rarity drops, but since rare and VR ones seem to come up more than 1/16 so probably take the component.

 

 

[siolfir]

46 minutes ago, quixoteprog said:

I have not done the math, but since you need so many components of every rarity to get your slots all up to T4 I am guessing you are better off always taking the random roll.

 

I have taken the merit once because I had 7 and needed one more to make a rare comp. But when you consider the components necessary to make each (I think this is right, but not certain, please correct me if I'm wrong)

 

T1 is 3 common

T2 requires 1T1 and 2 common and one uncommon

T3 requires 1T2 and 2 common and 1 rare.

T4 you need 2T3s and 2 common and 1 very rare

 

That is 16 common, 2 uncommon, 2 rare and 1 very rare to make 1 T4. Since (IIRC) it possible to break down rare stuff into more common things (mostly threads I think, that can be made into common and uncommon) taking the component is almost always the right thing. Not sure what the stats are on how often each rarity drops, but since rare and VR ones seem to come up more than 1/16 so probably take the component.

If you're still building your incarnate powers, it's better to take the salvage. Otherwise take the empyrean.

Empyrean merits break down into reward merits (10) or threads (20), and can be mailed to your alts, albeit one at a time.

 

20 Threads will get you a common of your choice and 60 threads gets you an uncommon. 

So that's 1 empyrean merit per common and 3 per uncommon, in addition to 8 for a rare and 30 for a very rare directly. Since you get empyrean merits every 3rd veteran level, you can use those for the rares and very rares that you don't happen to get through the rolls.

 

You can also downgrade incarnate salvage your choice of the next level down, so if you end up with a very rare roll, that just means you get your selection of whatever you want - no need to go to threads.

[Hedgefund]

I hate discussing a statistical topic without using any actual data, but I have NO doubt that the VR drop rate is > 1/30.  Maybe significantly so.  Not sure if the P(R) > 1/8 but I'd guess it is.

 

So when building up incarnate abilities, always select random salvage over emps.  Sometimes I'm able to build up t4s without spending a single Emp.  Other times when I'm just left with a VR needed to craft a T4, I'll spend the 30 emps, but I almost never do that twice.  Emps are the one currency in game I hoard to use at a more advantageous time so I spend them only out of "necessity".

 

I do e-mail a trans to a newly minted 50 so I can get insta t3 alpha after taking care of the Ramiel business.  One could tell me that's not efficient but... I don't care.

[tidge]

Running content post-50 is necessary to get the XP to unlock other Incarnates anyway, so I find my Incarnates do some Dark Astoria farming. I always take the random salvage. Once you have a T3 Alpha and a Judgement, farming Dark Astoria arcs is easy for almost all builds.

 

The Empyrean merits flow with extra levels, so there is very little need to bank them from choices. It can help to keep a list of which salvage you actually want. Once a toon can farm/grind DA, you can spend as much time finding what salvage you need as it takes to run certain missions.

[AboveTheChemist]

4 hours ago, Hedgefund said:

I hate discussing a statistical topic without using any actual data, but I have NO doubt that the VR drop rate is > 1/30.  Maybe significantly so.  Not sure if the P(R) > 1/8 but I'd guess it is.

Based on the data I have, you are correct. I parsed my logs and found 153 instances between July 17th and today of receiving incarnate rewards via the random table. The vast majority of those cases were the rewards at the end of the Heather Townshend 'Burden of the Past' mini-arc, but there were a few others scattered in there.

 

Of the 153 chances, there were 54 common, 50 uncommon, 29 rare, and 20 very rare rewards. In terms of percentages, this equates to 35.3% common, 32.7% uncommon, 19.0% rare, and 13.1% very rare rewards. The chance of getting a very rare appears to be about 1 in 8, the chance of a rare about 1 in 5, and the chance of both common and uncommon each about 1 in 3.

 

I was genuinely shocked that I had run Heather's arc that many times, but I guess those incarnates aren't going to build themselves.

Edited January 2, 2020 by AboveTheChemist
clarification

[sindyr]

16 hours ago, AboveTheChemist said:

Based on the data I have, you are correct. I parsed my logs and found 153 instances between July 17th and today of receiving incarnate rewards via the random table. The vast majority of those cases were the rewards at the end of the Heather Townshend 'Burden of the Past' mini-arc, but there were a few others scattered in there.

 

Of the 153 chances, there were 54 common, 50 uncommon, 29 rare, and 20 very rare rewards. In terms of percentages, this equates to 35.3% common, 32.7% uncommon, 19.0% rare, and 13.1% very rare rewards. The chance of getting a very rare appears to be about 1 in 8, the chance of a rare about 1 in 5, and the chance of both common and uncommon each about 1 in 3.

 

I was genuinely shocked that I had run Heather's arc that many times, but I guess those incarnates aren't going to build themselves.

Thank you, this is exactly the answer I was seeking. 🙂

[Ade Lucas]

I was quite lucky with my first few incarnates, someone was running iTrials almost constantly every night and it was quite possible to jump from one to another without a break. I have no idea which ones, but some of them seem to have a much higher chance of a rare or very rare drop than normal. Unfortunately, as is normal, the novelty wore off and the superbly run iTrials have tailed off and it's very hard to find one being run. On Reunion Peak ran a wide variety of different trials and TF's, with a smattering of MSR and Hami for good measure.  His leagues were always run like a military operation and very well blocked out before we started. There was never a chance of not getting whatever result or badge needed unless someone failed to pay attention and listen to extremely clear instructions. I assume the holidays have got in the way and normal service will be resumed soon, but it's just a shame there are only a handful, probably less than ten people, who are willing and able to run the incarnate content as well and as clearly. I've had a couple of runs which were so badly done I've quit halfway through. Being called an idiot publicly for doing exactly what everyone else has done for dozens of runs because the team leader wants to run it as quickly as possible despite at least half the league wanting to get the badges isn't fun. Team leader, team leader rules. Team member doesn't like team leader rules, team member quits team.

 

Aaaaaanyway  up, Heather is a good and quick way of getting emp merits and salvage. The majority of times I get common salvage, but sometimes I get a higher reward. One thing to remember is that enemy level doesn't affect reward. The drop rates for each enemy and rewards table doesn't change on -1 or +4. If you drop it to -1/1 you can literally run from one end to the other in around 15-20 minutes, if you only defeat the absolute minimum enemies required. So first mission just the assassin at the end of the map, second mission three mobs with an ambush at the end, third mission click three glowies and one mob, final mission a timed fight at the end. You may need to clear a few bunched up enemies while trying to click the glowies, but you can run past almost everything. so for 15 to 20 minutes work you can get either 1 emp merit, a guaranteed random common and a roll on the reward table, or 2 emp merits and a common. 

[AboveTheChemist]

7 hours ago, sindyr said:

Thank you, this is exactly the answer I was seeking. 🙂

You are welcome, I am happy to contribute. I originally parsed the logs in Python and performed the analysis in Excel but I have since modified the script to both parse the logs and do the computations. If anyone else keeps chat logs, is reasonably familiar with Python, and would like to try it, I am happy to share my script. I can't guarantee 100% that it will work for you, but I'm still happy to share.

[sindyr]

On 1/3/2020 at 12:47 PM, Ade Lucas said:

Aaaaaanyway  up, Heather is a good and quick way of getting emp merits and salvage. The majority of times I get common salvage, but sometimes I get a higher reward. One thing to remember is that enemy level doesn't affect reward. The drop rates for each enemy and rewards table doesn't change on -1 or +4. If you drop it to -1/1 you can literally run from one end to the other in around 15-20 minutes, if you only defeat the absolute minimum enemies required. So first mission just the assassin at the end of the map, second mission three mobs with an ambush at the end, third mission click three glowies and one mob, final mission a timed fight at the end. You may need to clear a few bunched up enemies while trying to click the glowies, but you can run past almost everything. so for 15 to 20 minutes work you can get either 1 emp merit, a guaranteed random common and a roll on the reward table, or 2 emp merits and a common. 

My fastest time was 11 minutes 45 seconds. I can reliably hit 13 minutes plus or minus. (Superspeed helps.) This mission was the reason I asked the original question. 🙂

[tidge]

On 1/5/2020 at 8:50 AM, sindyr said:

My fastest time was 11 minutes 45 seconds. I can reliably hit 13 minutes plus or minus. (Superspeed helps.) This mission was the reason I asked the original question. 🙂

It is definitely possible to routinely get faster times (at +0/0x8) without Superspeed (but with Ninja Run), and I find it depends on:

 

1) Build: Having (pb)AoE to hit as many during an alpha strike as possible.

2) Build: High defense (to ignore Tsoo attacking you during mission 3)

3) RNG: The shape of the first map (I groan when I see one of the twisted 'spaghetti noodles')

4) RNG: Runners in missions 1 (especially) and 2 (at least in mission 2 you can usually go fight another group while you wait for the runners to come back)

 

I've had some VERY bad luck with runners in those first two missions. Tsoo Sorcerers an Guardian Spirits will come back pretty quickly but those chicken legs were made for running! I suppose turning down the team size for those first 2 missions would lead to better times as it can be difficult to immediately see which groups to defeat at the end of mission 1 (for large team sizes), and minimize the chance of runners.

 

Often I will just speed mission 1 and then treat the other missions as farms (for the recipe drops), but sometimes it is nice to challenge personal bests.

 

I don't bother with the team teleporter during the arc, I suppose it could shave some travel time before the first mission or between the second and third.

 

Some things I found helps my times is to set up and use (Lore) pets during the not-quite-cut-scene dialogue at the end of mission 2. They provide extra attacks that are quick to catch the villains from those 2 spawns I may miss with my AoE. Another trick is to turn off Ninja Run at the end of mission 4 when descending to the final battle, as otherwise I get stuck on the 'Mot guts'. I always choose to 'save both', since its essentially a single click (of an AoE) that is likely to drop all the villains.

 

Good luck, I am sure you can do better!

[Extor Prime]

I have been so unlucky with the salvage rolls that I always take merits now. Merits will never betray you or stab you while you sleep.

[Ukase]

On 1/2/2020 at 11:59 AM, Hedgefund said:

I hate discussing a statistical topic without using any actual data, but I have NO doubt that the VR drop rate is > 1/30.  Maybe significantly so.  Not sure if the P(R) > 1/8 but I'd guess it is.

 

So when building up incarnate abilities, always select random salvage over emps.  Sometimes I'm able to build up t4s without spending a single Emp.  Other times when I'm just left with a VR needed to craft a T4, I'll spend the 30 emps, but I almost never do that twice.  Emps are the one currency in game I hoard to use at a more advantageous time so I spend them only out of "necessity".

 

I do e-mail a trans to a newly minted 50 so I can get insta t3 alpha after taking care of the Ramiel business.  One could tell me that's not efficient but... I don't care.

I do the same thing...except, sometimes when I grow weary of playing a character, I'll just burn the emps. I have a second account, so sometimes, I'll just let a "finished" character sit in just to get vet levels to get the emps. Most characters get t-4'd by vet level 9. Some sooner, some later, depending on the RNG. 
That leaves me with several vet levels to get 20 emps, and 15, etc. It adds up.