Winter Pack strategy

[Yomo Kimyata]

The only thing that makes Winter Packs unique is that there is/was/has been a "sales" price.  They are not fundamentally more or less useful on 3 January than they are on 4 January.

 

As that goes away, do prices start to move higher?  Then do people unpack or sell their packs to drive prices lower?  There are all kinds of undergraduate economics theses that could be written about some pretty basic understandings of both traditional microeconomics and behavioral economics.

 

I bought 2,000 packs.  Hardly a huge number and hardly insignificant.  I'll be honest, I'm mostly hoping someone tries to drive prices up on something so I can hit their unsustainable bids!

[Glacier Peak]

Aren't they seeded in the market at 25 million? So prices could rise higher than that, but they'd always be available for purchase at that minimum threshold.

[Glacier Peak]

On 12/28/2021 at 7:13 AM, Ukase said:

I don't think they should randomly drop. I think they should be part of every reward table. Or at least most reward tables. 

Now, what might be more interesting is to have a random Winter-O be available after completing the Winter Lord trial or some other appropriate task, much the same way Overwhelming Force is available after Summer BB. 

And since the Summer BB is available year round - I see no reason why the Winter Lord trial can't be available year round. 

Agree with this. Winter Event offering a Winter Pack (or just a reward table with one Winter-O) just makes sense to me.

[Yomo Kimyata]

22 minutes ago, Glacier Peak said:

Aren't they seeded in the market at 25 million? So prices could rise higher than that, but they'd always be available for purchase at that minimum threshold.

 

Ah yes, I was referring to WOs.  Sorry to not explain the voices in my head who sometimes don't get expressed by my fingers.

[Troo]

3 hours ago, Yomo Kimyata said:

I bought 2,000 packs.  Hardly a huge number and hardly insignificant.

 

We need to have a talk about perspective.

[Yomo Kimyata]

4 minutes ago, Troo said:

 

We need to have a talk about perspective.

 

I'm sorry, I didn't quite see that.  There seems to be something caught in my monocle.

 

*wipes away trillion inf bill*

 

Ah, that's better.  Hmm, hadn't considered that, thanks!

[Ukase]

I have 3020 packs left to open...still undecided if I should buy more. And I think time is running out!  Probably ends tomorrow. At least, the winter event should. 

 

[wjrasmussen]

5 hours ago, Yomo Kimyata said:

 

I'm sorry, I didn't quite see that.  There seems to be something caught in my monocle.

 

*wipes away trillion inf bill*

 

Ah, that's better.  Hmm, hadn't considered that, thanks!

You can send me some of that!

[Ukase]

I was going to by 10B more this morning...but they started maintenance an hour earlier than I expected! Doooom!!!!!!

[Erratic1]

11 minutes ago, Ukase said:

I was going to by 10B more this morning...but they started maintenance an hour earlier than I expected! Doooom!!!!!!

 

Trusting my poor luck with regards to doing things at the last minute, I made sure to login and purchase last night before going to bed.

[Seed22]

Just gotta wait on those darn market prices to catch up. Any idea as to when that will occur? Isn’t it usually by the end of the day?

[UltraAlt]

It looks like the packs are fixed.

I've seen a couple of "Experienced" and none of the x% XP Boosters in the packs that I have opened so far after the patch on Tuesday AM.

 

I'm still seeing the x% XP Boosters from before in my email, so they may not be converting those to "Experienced" or, at least, not yet.

 

 

Edited January 4, 2022 by UltraAlt
consistent in 30 packs opened

[macskull]

On 12/31/2021 at 10:24 AM, tidge said:

I think a better argument is this, based on demand:

• EVERY AT can slot (almost every) Winter -O, but any given AT can only use two ATO sets.
• The Winter-Os have those very attractive Superior options (that again, every ATO can benefit from)

With a healthy dose of:

• Fire farm builds

Personally, I think the "top builds" argument is problematic as the type of content that is played determines performance. My preference for most builds is to look for the global +Recharge et al. bonuses from the lvl 50 Superior sets first. I like the look of those 5- and 6-piece bonuses from Winter-Os, but honestly the typical set bonus they offer that appeals the most to me is the Slow resistance... and I usually find another set's bonus that I prefer more than that.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say the reason winter packs are 25m vs 10m is primarily due to the attractiveness of the winter-O set bonuses for fire farmers - same reason AE XP got cut in half, and same reason double XP while exemplared was disabled. They're all means of inflation control on a higher-population server, since the other servers which share HC's code base do not have those differences (except maybe the exemplar bit).

[dtjunkie]

11 hours ago, Ukase said:

I was going to by 10B more this morning...but they started maintenance an hour earlier than I expected! Doooom!!!!!!

 

I was putting in my buy order at 7:59 this morning and BAM too late sucka

[Ukase]

On 1/4/2022 at 9:17 AM, Seed22 said:

Just gotta wait on those darn market prices to catch up. Any idea as to when that will occur? Isn’t it usually by the end of the day?

Market prices to catch up? If I understand your question, historically, the prices of winter-Os that are superior when not impacted by the sale of the packs went for 23M to 35M, depending on market forces. Lat year, it took a good number of months for these prices to creep up due to so many folks getting in on the pack sales. 

Some folks decreased demand by buying them for themselves. A fair number of folks increased supply by trying to liquidate the packs they bought. 

I wouldn't expect prices to creep back up to "normal" until July or August. I say that, but it's pure speculation. I don't know how many packs were bought, nor am I super clear on how many were relisted - because I'm not clear on how many were bought. (circular logic error, perhaps) 

I suspect some folks that bought a large number of them, if they're still playing, may have bought 10,000 packs. Maybe they did that last year. Or, they could still have those packs from the last sale. No idea. Either way, market forces will keep the prices below "normal" for a while, I suspect. 

That's not to say you can't buy the packs at 25M and still make profit. Just not as much.