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Winter Pack strategy


Ukase
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So..you've bought them. Some of you - a ton of them. One friend said he got 10 billion worth. His strategy - sell the winter Os at the going rate - which seems to be 6-12M, depending on time of day and which ones. 


It wasn't but a couple of months ago, even the Entombed, the red-headed step-child of Winter-Os (just an expression, no need for the red-heads to bash me) were selling for over 20m. 

I ask you - is the bird in the hand (the sale today or tomorrow for 10m) worth 20M 6 months from now? 

The market is a fickle beast. So many packs, so many winter-Os are not necessarily "in circulation", but are in player's email/base storage/ah slots. If HC continues to discount winter packs in December for the foreseeable future, are enough in circulation to keep the price as low as it is now? Only time will tell. 

Some of our more clever, sinister marketers are already trying to determine a winning strategy - loosely defined as that would be different for many of us. 

I think some are buying up these winter-Os at the current sub-10M price, hoping to double their inf 4-6 months from now. Not a bad strategy, if it comes to fruition. Others will keep a stash just to try to market pvp it a bit to keep the prices low. 

It's going to be interesting! 

 

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FlyingCodeMonkey and I have just been picking up and opening packs or lowball bidding on Winter Os on the market with the idea of filling a storage bin in one of our bases.... Nothing too cagey or too complicated. 

 

Then again, we're not looking to turn a profit... We're just making a stash to equip our own potential alts. 

Edited by Coyotedancer
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I started the winter event with about 200 mil, which is the most I've ever saved up. I've been buying Winter packs, opening them, and selling most of the contents for pretty much the whole event so far. Started out doing 10 at a time, then upgraded to 20 and now 30. The steady profit from that has brought me up to around 800 mil now. I'm thinking I'll probably hit 1 billion, then buy 100 packs to re-sell after the event. That should bring me to the inf cap for the first time, which is a fun personal achievement.

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It would seem that some are either desperate for inf, or are just trying to be strangely helpful. Or maybe they're dim-witted. Can't say. 

Several of the Superior winters are selling for less than the non-catalyzed. It's not just a one-off as far as I can tell. Several of them across all sets are selling for less than 5M. When I think about how much a catalyst sells for it makes me question the intellect of the seller. But, things don't have to make sense to me to be fun for someone else. I thought about buying them to see how cheaply I can get them, but I already have more than I need. I think it's only fair to leave something for the up and coming marketers. 

But I sure would like to know why they're selling them THAT cheap. 

Edited by Ukase
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The marketer in the real world recognizes Christmas to bring folks in the store to increase sales and profit. 
The marketer in CoH? I think they'd get more out of just dropping random Winter-Os and packs and inf on other characters in game. But...what the heck do I know? The more I think I know, the more I realize I don't know much at all. 

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Well, it appears that prices have rebounded from their lows.  It seems to me there are a few simple ways to profit:

 

1. Buy pack, open now, sell contents now.  Seems profitable.

2. Buy pack, wait, sell pack after event is over.  
3.  Buy pack, wait, open and sell contents after event is over.

 

As I said in another post, I’ve been creating synthetic Winter packs: 1.2 WOs and 50 converters.  I’ve been replicating them for a well under 10mm a pop.  I also bought a thousand packs to consider for the future.  But I’m certainly not buying as much as some people!

 

I will say, I’m using WOs a lot more than normal.  For new alts under lvl 17-22, I’ve been using WOs until other set IOs come into play.

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Who run Bartertown?

 

See this link for my giveaway!  FREEMoney!

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I'm gonna sell the packs at just below HC's price. Winter packs going for 20m? I'll sell for 17.5-19m, though i have to see what people are willing to pay while others are doing the same thing, and what others are willing to sell at. I'm sure a few people will dump a bunch for like 10,000,001 and eat the loss just for lolz.

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46 minutes ago, EmperorSteele said:

I'm gonna sell the packs at just below HC's price. Winter packs going for 20m? I'll sell for 17.5-19m, though i have to see what people are willing to pay while others are doing the same thing, and what others are willing to sell at. I'm sure a few people will dump a bunch for like 10,000,001 and eat the loss just for lolz.

I’ve already set noob traps and will set more after the event!

Who run Bartertown?

 

See this link for my giveaway!  FREEMoney!

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15 hours ago, Yomo Kimyata said:

I will say, I’m using WOs a lot more than normal.  For new alts under lvl 17-22, I’ve been using WOs until other set IOs come into play.

This isn't a bad (gameplay) strategy at all; I do the same thing with Overwhelming Force and pieces of catalyzed PVP recipes. In practice, I'm unlikely to follow that advice for Winter pieces since I will usually use the ATO first, and then there aren't a lot of slots to invest in the Winters.

 

As far as market strategy: I'm staying out of the Winter pack market, except to

  • buy up some packs for alts that (may) eventually want Winter pieces
  • buy up cheap converters from the market

The converters are my long-term strategy: that's usually how I get 80% of the specific ATO, Very Rare and PVP pieces I want for builds, plus normal market-play of course.

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17 hours ago, Ukase said:

This amused me. 

I use the term to refer to setting lowball bids on something that someone spent a lot of inf on, but is willing to sell for a ridiculously low amount of inf.  I used them to pick off a few lvl 53 HOs; I bought a lot of WOs that way; it still fuels my ATO-traders.

 

I should probably come up with a nicer term, but people willing to spend 10+mm on things really shouldn't offer them at prices lower than they are willing to accept...

Who run Bartertown?

 

See this link for my giveaway!  FREEMoney!

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I have um... a few packs sitting on a market toon. Don't really need the cash, but had it to burn. I'll hock the packs later or crack them and sell the bits and pieces. I make money either way. At the beginning I opened probably 100 or so and tossed the IO's on the market for around 10m, converted Brainstorms into salvage and hocked all of those. The insps went too. Some sold for more than others. I'm sure I'll make plenty over the next 6 months and be ready for next year.

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  • 1 month later

I did a test batch of winter-o's, selling 10 of them for pre-sale price. It took 9 days, but they all sold for more than my asking price at 26M (superiors). They all came from the 10M winter packs, so it was a nice, warm & fuzzy feeling. And the display suggested that someone had listed some for far less. I couldn't even see the ones I sold in the history. 

Also, I didn't make a note today, but for 3 days, I did. 
 

Winter pack count  3-Feb-21 3498
Winter pack bids 3-Feb-21 2479
Avg. Price   19.5M
Winter pack count  2/4/2021 3269
Winter pack bids 2/4/2021 2480
Avg. Price   19.5M
Winter pack count  2/5/2021 3203
Winter pack bids 2/5/2021 2470
Avg. Price   15.3M

 


Thought some of you might find that interesting. The "count" doesn't include the seeded 10M packs the devs seeded. Those are player packs listed for resale. 

 

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I've been doing a little of each.  I spent nearly all of my spare inf (10B) on 1,000 Winter Packs.

 

I resold 100 Winter Packs last month for 15M each just to get back a little seed money (after the listing fees I had less than 100M inf left).  I resold another 100 last week for 19M each, and I have another 100 still listed on the market for 24M each (figuring they'll sell eventually but I don't need the inf right now).  I still have 200 Winter Packs in my inventory, and I'm not sure what I'm going to do with those yet.

 

So I've opened 500 Winter Packs (yikes!) and most of the winter-o's have been selling for around 15M each (except for the Entomb set, which I've been converting).  I'm about halfway through the sales of those.  I'm at about 5B inf liquid, plus 2B I've already spent on other stuff, plus 4B worth of stuff posted for sale, plus 3-4B worth of stuff (once it sells) still sitting in my email.  (Frighteningly, AH fees have hit 1B inf...)

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I just started selling my Winter-Os in bulk. I went a little (ok... a LOT) nuts this winter. I spent all my considerable fortune buying and opening winter packs. Then I sold every scrap of inventory and bought winter packs. Then I pulled the enhancements out of some of my alts an bought yet more winter packs. I even took all the reward merits and brainstorm items I got from opening those packs, made sellable items, sold the items and bought yet more packs. What I didn't sell too many of was the Winter-O. 

 

Until now... 

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