Is in-set conversion worth it?

[Six-Six]

I like the converting lotto. I treat it like a mini-game. 

I don't necessarily agree with how you came up the the odds, but hey, it's probably just me. I do agree that after a certain number of tries it proves itself unprofitable. Nonetheless, It's a gamble and part of the fun is coming up a winner.

I've noted that you can never get particular IOs from certain IOs even if you play the lotto the whole day, which I've done.

[Myrmidon]

55 minutes ago, cyvert said:

If converters are free, then there is no cost but time. That is how I look at it and I regularly convert defense IOs to lotg procs (like 50-100 a day). It's definitely profitable to convert from out of set to the target set and the target IO or even in set to the target IO if you can get converters for free.

This is exactly how I look at things.

[Yomo Kimyata]

I’m assuming cyvert and Myrmidon are talking about using merits to buy “free” converters.  Feel free to play however you want, but if your goal is to accumulate inf, those converters are not, in fact free.  There is an opportunity cost, which we are shortcut valuing in this post at 100k per converter.  Or one merit per in-set roll.  You could choose to convert your merits to converters and sell them.  Or you could choose to convert your merits to converters and use them to convert.  Or do what I do and sit on your merits since I convert everything to Inf anyway. (I don’t monetize my merits as of this time.  I don’t need to.)

 

If if you choose to value converters you get from merits as free, but you value converters you buy in the AH as worth 100k, you are going to make some economically unsound decisions.  

 

 But this is a game, and you can play as you want!

 

 

 

[cyvert]

Generally speaking ill buy 30-50 superpacks and use the ATOs from those to make back the cost of the packs plus some if i catalyze to superiors, essentially making any converters I get via reward merits from the packs "free". In instances where I'd buy the converters, id average out the cost over the 30-50 IOs im converting to know how much it 'cost'. Case in point, this morning I converted 40 def IOs into LoTG procs and decided to buy the converters. It cost me 600 converters or 15 converters on average per IO. If the cost to make the def set IO was around 1.1m and the converter cost was 1.5m, total cost was 2.6m. The LoTG proc sells for 6-8m so there is plenty of room to profit even if I had to buy converters and kept converting until I got what I wanted. Three is definitely potential to do worse if it takes more conversions but 15 converters seems to be the average I wind up with over larger sample sizes.

[Myrmidon]

The only “economically unsound” decision that I have made so far was buying converters in the first couple of weeks of playing this game. I don’t make that mistake anymore.

[Mr. Vee]

Was it economically unsound because they cost more then? Cuz it's perfectly sound now. I buy 500 at a time for 100k and am making money hand over fist off them.

[Pious Heretic]

If you're turning a profit, then buying converters isn't economically unsound. The only difference between purchasing them with influence vs merits is potential profit. Of course, this is also contingent on what Yomo Kimyata is saying. Even if one is inclined to use merits instead of influence, it's wise to treat them as if you just burned 100-300K per conversion. If not, you were likely better off just selling them directly.

[justicebeliever]

I'm in the camp of "If I am making $25 million in profit for every 20 enhancements I sell", then it must be working.

 

I play the law of averages...One average I am making a profit on every enhancement I sell...So for me, not worrying about how many conversions is more reassuring than stressing out over the specific break-even point for each individual enhancement.  Could it be more profitable?  Possibly, even probably...But it's definitely "economically sound" to buy a crap load of converters and 20-30 recipes in a batch for me.

[Myrmidon]

5 hours ago, Veelectric Boogaloo said:

Was it economically unsound because they cost more then? Cuz it's perfectly sound now. I buy 500 at a time for 100k and am making money hand over fist off them.

(90k each at around 20 million in total.) It’s “economically unsound” because I simply don’t need to.

 

 

[MunkiLord]

In set conversion is absolutely worth it if you're moving volume. I made around 1.5 billion the last 8-9 days that. Now I spend a good chunk of time doing this everyday, but the profit is there. Sure sometimes I'll spend 40 or so converters trying to get the one I want, but sometimes I'll hit three times in a row. I estimate I spend 13-16 converters per IO.

 

So I factor in about 1.5 million for converting, 500k for rare salvage, and anywhere from 400k-1 million in market fees depending on the specific enhancement. 

 

And finally I try and pick ones that sell fast. PvP IOs don't sell super fast, but several of them have a nice profit margin. 

 

edit: I'd also like to say this much influence in a week is not typical. This last week is an extreme outlier for me.

Edited July 29, 2019 by MunkiLord

[Sothoth]

On 7/25/2019 at 9:01 AM, Squidnunc said:

The odds of making the right conversion on your first roll are 20%. If you fail you can try again; still a 20% chance. Keep going, keep feeding coins into the slot machine. 

# of rolls       chance of success        cost of converters

1                20%                      300K

2                20%                      600K

3                20%                      900K

4                20%                      1.2M

5                20%                      1.5M

6                20%                      1.8M

7                20%                      2.1M

8                20%                      2.4M

 

And so on, and so on.

Fixed that for you.

[justicebeliever]

5 minutes ago, Sothoth said:

Fixed that for you.

That's not how odds work.  Those are the odds for ONE specific roll.  Any SPECIFIC role...However odds of something happening do increase with additional "rolls".  The original chart was correct...

 

https://www.edcollins.com/backgammon/diceprob.htm

[Tanker_Toy]

I do more converting than anything.

 

If I go and do an arc, some of the DA dailies, or just a plain old farm run, I will have enough influence to buy a bunch of converters, 10 at a time for a cool million at the AH. I have been able to keep my costs down for any build I do though daily converting and holding onto the  converted enhancements. While my bank account on my 3 50's hovers between 60-70 million each, I have built every one of them the way I want since my first one, spending 20 million each along with merits. Even my first one was roughly 50 million and I'm completely happy with the enhancements, which include two rare sets, winter enhancements, AT enhancements and other high priced stuff.

 

My only other expenditure is buying the super packs off the auction house for 10 million - generally speaking I convert any AT enhancement into what I want by playing the daily converter game. It's really about foresight and having builds set for the future. While I don't have these massive bank accounts I do have 3-4 alts ready to be at least partially if not fully decked out when they hit 50.

 

I have also decked out a bunch of alts with lower level sets for QoL purposes by doing this with either lower level enhancements or attuned ones. If I get a set IO recipe drop on my lowbies, I generally build and convert it immediately into something useful.

 

I rarely, if ever, buy catalysts for them - generally speaking if they show up, I horde them and use them as needed. I have run out only once I believe.

[Murcielago]

So far it's been worth it for me selling the luck of the gambler set. Most of the enhancements sell for a good bit and the 7.5% sells for a huge amount so either way I do pretty well. 

[Squidnunc]

On 7/29/2019 at 10:50 AM, Sothoth said:

Fixed that for you.

The original table showed cumulative odds. Please don't edit it this way, especially if you're going to leave my name on it.

[Murcielago]

Lately I've been selling 10 enhancements at a time and buying 50 converters at 100k inf which adds up to about 500k extra per IO. Most of the time I'm able to get an IO that sells for 2x than what the first conversion yielded so on average I'd say it is worth it depending on your niche. 

[Mr. Vee]

I wonder if we should factor in the extra 3 converters used when forgetting to take it back off in-set for the next conversion. Or is that just me?

[DSorrow]

The math has been shown earlier in this thread that it's generally worth it to do in-set conversions (in large volume) if the price difference between what you're converting from and to is more than the cost of converters to do so: (N-1)/M conversions x 0.3 million inf for an N piece set where M number of pieces are acceptable. For a 6 piece set where 1 piece is acceptable, it takes on average 5 conversions or ~1.5M inf to to convert from a random piece to one specific piece. What's harder to account for numerically, though, is the time cost of doing this. Usually the within-set cost differences max out at around 2mil, so personally I wouldn't bother doing several in-set conversions for an extra 500k.

 

Because I already have a good bunch of inf (and merits) stored up, I'm pretty lazy in my 1-2 weekly market checks: I mostly trade stuff that usually gets me profit after one conversion. Sure, I could make more money per week by doing something else, but this is pretty much a sweet spot for me when it comes to inf per time invested in marketeering activities. One conversion per item as opposed to 5 on average works out even if the former makes 50-75% of the profit.

 

 

[MunkiLord]

4 hours ago, DSorrow said:

 What's harder to account for numerically, though, is the time cost of doing this. Usually the within-set cost differences max out at around 2mil, so personally I wouldn't bother doing several in-set conversions for an extra 500k.

 

 

I couldn't possibly agree with you more here. With my setup at home I can watch TV while I play, so that helps prevent me from going crazy when I'm converting anywhere from 30-100 enhancements in a single sitting. If I didn't have something to distract me this wouldn't be something I'd do.

[Yomo Kimyata]

5 hours ago, DSorrow said:

The math has been shown earlier in this thread that it's generally worth it to do in-set conversions (in large volume) if the price difference between what you're converting from and to is more than the cost of converters to do so: (N-1)/M conversions x 0.3 million inf for an N piece set where M number of pieces are acceptable. For a 6 piece set where 1 piece is acceptable, it takes on average 5 conversions or ~1.5M inf to to convert from a random piece to one specific piece. What's harder to account for numerically, though, is the time cost of doing this. Usually the within-set cost differences max out at around 2mil, so personally I wouldn't bother doing several in-set conversions for an extra 500k.

 

Because I already have a good bunch of inf (and merits) stored up, I'm pretty lazy in my 1-2 weekly market checks: I mostly trade stuff that usually gets me profit after one conversion. Sure, I could make more money per week by doing something else, but this is pretty much a sweet spot for me when it comes to inf per time invested in marketeering activities. One conversion per item as opposed to 5 on average works out even if the former makes 50-75% of the profit.

 

 

Internally, I'm referring this as "clickiness" or PPC ("Profitability per click").  I'm working on a guide.

[Squidnunc]

14 minutes ago, Yomo Kimyata said:

Internally, I'm referring this as "clickiness" or PPC ("Profitability per click").  I'm working on a guide.

I look forward to that guide. Though you should be aware that at least on my screen with this font, the "C" and the "L" in clickiness are easy to misread as merging...

 

Given that there are many ways to reliably make money in this game with almost no risk, it comes down to what's sustainable, what isn't going to drive you crazy with boredom, what has a decent rate of return per minute of clicking, etc. I've been experimenting lately with a very limited strategy:

- Put in bids for level 41 defense sets other than Luck of the Gambler. Bid on every enhancement for about 2M, or some other number if the history guides you that way. Bid for 10 at a time.

You're looking for "Red Fortune" and "Reactive Defenses". You want level 41 so there's no chance of converting into a "Serendipity" or "Gift of the Ancients"

- Log out. Wait.

- Log in later, grab everything you've won.

- Do "out of set conversion / Defense" on each enhancement until you see dice (the Luck of the Gambler symbol)

If you start with a Red Fortune or a Reactive Defenses, you have a 50/50 chance of getting either a LotG or another "loser". It's a coin flip.

- (optional) Once you have a LotG, take a couple of stabs at in-set conversion to get the magic +7.5% recharge enhancement, which is the most valuable in the set.

- Sell on the market. Pick a price a couple of 100K under the last few bids, so it'll roll over relatively quickly.

- Take your profits, go back to step 1.

 

So basically just trying to skim the cream in a mechanical way. I figure LotG will never go out of style unless they decide to make that recharge enhancement Unique, which would probably cause a riot. It's a pretty rare level 50, from what I've seen, that doesn't have at least one of these, and they're making new level 50 characters all the time.

If enough people did this, then in theory the price of one of the "lesser" defense set enhancements and the price of a LotG enhancement would converge to within about 200K of each other. But I think there are far more people who would rather, say, play the superhero game and have fun instead of messing around with the auction house, so that'll probably never happen.

[Robotech_Master]

4 hours ago, Squidnunc said:

Given that there are many ways to reliably make money in this game with almost no risk, it comes down to what's sustainable, what isn't going to drive you crazy with boredom, what has a decent rate of return per minute of clicking, etc. I've been experimenting lately with a very limited strategy [...]

 

Very interesting. It looks like you're skipping the craft step and going for pre-built IOs, which could be one way to do it. I'm able to get Reactive Defenses recipes for about 500 to 600K each, usually, and with the crafting cost plus the cost of the rare salvage, I'm usually at about 1.2 million Inf total cost to craft them. Which means that for the cost of a minute or so of fiddling with salvage bids, I'm making 8 million Inf more in profit for every ten I craft and sell. But if it's worth that to you to do a little less clicking, I guess I can't really argue. 🙂

 

When I go to sell the LotGs, I tend to shoot for a price of 7 mil for the Global Recharge, and 5 mil for most others. (And by "shoot for," I mean price most of a million below that so it sells more quickly. I'm fine with losing a few hundred K if someone bids lower because most of the time they don't.) If something has a going rate of 3 to 4 mil instead, and/or has a huge number of sellers and fewer buyers, I'll convert-in-set to something else until I get one that doesn't.

 

Sometimes I'll get lucky and it pops up the global recharge IO first try, but with only a 20% chance per click of it happening, it wouldn't take too many failed attempts to eat up all or most of that 2 million difference in profit. (I'm not so concerned about spending time clicking as I am with losing money by failing.) So I content myself with the profits I can take most easily.

[Yomo Kimyata]

4 hours ago, Robotech_Master said:

Very interesting. It looks like you're skipping the craft step and going for pre-built IOs, which could be one way to do it.

 

The plain convert versus the craft-and-convert.  All to be in the guide!

[Robotech_Master]

And, of course, it's kind of ironic that, in a set called "Luck of the Gambler," we rely on how lucky we are at converting to see how much money we make from the resale... 🙂

[Squidnunc]

10 hours ago, Robotech_Master said:

Very interesting. It looks like you're skipping the craft step and going for pre-built IOs, which could be one way to do it. I'm able to get Reactive Defenses recipes for about 500 to 600K each, usually, and with the crafting cost plus the cost of the rare salvage, I'm usually at about 1.2 million Inf total cost to craft them. Which means that for the cost of a minute or so of fiddling with salvage bids, I'm making 8 million Inf more in profit for every ten I craft and sell. But if it's worth that to you to do a little less clicking, I guess I can't really argue. 🙂

 

Yep, you've got it.

 

I'm not saying that it makes sense to evaluate things completely numerically -- people are different, have different tolerances for different activities. One person might prefer a completely mindless procedure they can do while watching TV, another might appreciate the variety that comes with random rolls like scratch-off tickets. And there are limits; there's not always an infinite quantity of the thing you want at any given time.

 

But if a couple of robots were having this discussion, then you could say:

(Buy Rare recipe-get components-craft) takes V seconds and adds W value

(Buying a cheap Rare) takes X seconds (and adds zero value). In this example, V>X.

(Convert Rare until it's worth selling) takes Y seconds and adds Z value

 

So which is bigger?

(W+Z)/(V+Y), which is the $$ per second of doing the whole thing, or

(Z)/(X+Y), which is $$ per second of just doing the last part?

 

[This leaves out (Buy cheap recipe-get components-craft-convert until you get a Rare), as your original "Drive up the price of Doctored Wounds and make a killing" guide described.]

 

If LotG were selling for 25,000,000 instead of 7,000,000 then I think it would be a no-brainer. Focus exclusively on that second step; that's where the money is. But in the actual market, I don't know.