Winter Pack strategy

[iBot]

Yeah I noticed this weekend that all but 30 or so of the winter packs I had bought to sell back have sold.  I had them all listed at 24.5 million.  I think this was faster than last year as I seem to remember it taking to June for the market to rebound in price.  Nice thing to log into after a rough week.

[Ukase]

So, rather than make a new thread, figured I'd just post in this one. 

I have run out of room in email for all my accounts. So, I've had to resort to stashing on characters - which is...well, annoying, as I don't want to just make an character called "Inf holder Number 23" etc. 
So, I've been doing this: 

 

 

So, this gives me about a month and a half to decide if I want to get winter packs again. 
So...here's a thought...there are still over 3000 winter packs that someone bought and has opted to resell - obviously, for more than the 10M price that's coming in December (I assume). 
My guess is that they're all selling for more than 24,500,000, doubling the profit for whomever these sellers are, even taking into account the AH fee. 

But...honestly...that's a lot of packs to get sold within 42 days. I don't think they'll sell in time, but I could be wrong. At least not at the price they're at now. 

Now, if anyone wants to unload those - these bids I have are current! And I have many, many more on my other accounts & characters as well. Feel free to take advantage and unload those packs that aren't selling. 

But, I digress. The real purpose of my post is to wonder how the winter pack strategy changes now - seeing all the surplus packs. I suspect some of you aren't going to be buying any more packs...because you still have ....well, no idea for sure, but I suspect those 3k worth of packs are currently listed by only 10 or so individuals. Likely less. No real way for me to know...but it's always interesting to speculate. 

I'm currently poised to buy 1200 packs at 10M...but I think that's too damn many. I don't want to open that many, lol. And I couldn't resell it with a clear conscious because I know a single winter O is worth more when catalyzed than the cost of a pack at full price. 

So, where is the sweet spot? 10 of each Winter-O set in email? 12? 5? 25? A new character once a week, and I guess the most I'd want is 52...but I don't always use winter sets in a build. And certainly not entombs for any build, usually. The other items - amplifiers, merits - all quite useful. But I dunno...not sure the packs will be that useful this year to me. 

Maybe I'll lower those bids to 5M and bid on 2x as many, and if they fill, I could live with that. 

[Glacier Peak]

😅

Edited October 13, 2021 by Glacier Peak

[Yomo Kimyata]

48 minutes ago, Ukase said:

So, rather than make a new thread, figured I'd just post in this one. 

I have run out of room in email for all my accounts. So, I've had to resort to stashing on characters - which is...well, annoying, as I don't want to just make an character called "Inf holder Number 23" etc. 
So, I've been doing this: 

 

 

So, this gives me about a month and a half to decide if I want to get winter packs again. 
So...here's a thought...there are still over 3000 winter packs that someone bought and has opted to resell - obviously, for more than the 10M price that's coming in December (I assume). 
My guess is that they're all selling for more than 24,500,000, doubling the profit for whomever these sellers are, even taking into account the AH fee. 

But...honestly...that's a lot of packs to get sold within 42 days. I don't think they'll sell in time, but I could be wrong. At least not at the price they're at now. 

Now, if anyone wants to unload those - these bids I have are current! And I have many, many more on my other accounts & characters as well. Feel free to take advantage and unload those packs that aren't selling. 

But, I digress. The real purpose of my post is to wonder how the winter pack strategy changes now - seeing all the surplus packs. I suspect some of you aren't going to be buying any more packs...because you still have ....well, no idea for sure, but I suspect those 3k worth of packs are currently listed by only 10 or so individuals. Likely less. No real way for me to know...but it's always interesting to speculate. 

I'm currently poised to buy 1200 packs at 10M...but I think that's too damn many. I don't want to open that many, lol. And I couldn't resell it with a clear conscious because I know a single winter O is worth more when catalyzed than the cost of a pack at full price. 

So, where is the sweet spot? 10 of each Winter-O set in email? 12? 5? 25? A new character once a week, and I guess the most I'd want is 52...but I don't always use winter sets in a build. And certainly not entombs for any build, usually. The other items - amplifiers, merits - all quite useful. But I dunno...not sure the packs will be that useful this year to me. 

Maybe I'll lower those bids to 5M and bid on 2x as many, and if they fill, I could live with that. 

 

Careful, this is exactly how I got caught with thousands of winter packs in 2019!

 

I mean, I should have known better and all, and I still made an obscene profit, but it scared the bejeezus out of me when they went on sale.

 

Swapping your bids to 9,999,999 might be prudent unless you are planning on being very vigilant.

[Ukase]

I have no worries. I looked through my inventory in my email. I've plenty. I looked at the Winter prices on the AH...and I can literally see the downward pressure on prices from folks trying to unload the winters they have before they go on sale again, and the prices drop to the lower price range of 3-7m (just going off memory - I didn't keep close track) 
I bought so many two years ago, that I gave away more than I opened last year. I know I gave my SG 400 packs just so I wouldn't have to open them. And I think they needed them to restock the base. 

In any event, I monitor this character routinely. I just have to figure out a number of new characters, or start to increase how much each character carries. My concern is if I do that - then I can't really take anything out of email - ever - without opening the AH and making a bid on something safe to unload some inf - to grab a higher amount from email. 

Or, just let the inf burn on the packs. Not like I'll miss the inf. 

 

[iBot]

Talk about first world problems.  🤣

 

Anyway, I think my strategy this year will be similar to others in that I'll probably buy a bunch with whatever spare inf I've got laying around on the various characters and then relist most of them later.  Hell this time I may even just relist them immediately because there is no point in waiting with them in inventory.  I may open a few packs myself because as I mentioned in the other threads we had going for this that I do have a few builds that would benefit from having WOs on them but it is not that high of a priority for me.

 

Side note: Good to know there is actually a limit to the email system.  Was speculating about that with friends a while back and no one had an answer since no one we know had hit that limit yet.  I guess now we should just push for the ability to convert inf into super inf at the rate of 1 bil to 1. 🤑

[SmalltalkJava]

So where do you buy winter packs at now during the event?

[iBot]

Winter packs are available on the AH always.  When the winter event is turned on the packs are reduced in price from 25 mill to 10 mill.  So a lot of players buy up a bunch of them at 10 mil with the thought of later selling them for 20+ when the price goes back to normal thus making a nice profit.

[UltraAlt]

14 hours ago, SmalltalkJava said:

So where do you buy winter packs at now during the event?

 

Same place. The auction house.

Type "winter" in the search

[SmalltalkJava]

Ok thanks for the info!    I'm just a market dabbler, and I don't want to step into any noob traps. 

[Yomo Kimyata]

10 minutes ago, SmalltalkJava said:

Ok thanks for the info!    I'm just a market dabbler, and I don't want to step into any noob traps. 

 

Ooh, thanks for the reminder.  Gotta set the noob traps!

[Ukase]

Yeah, the email limit per account is 100, confirmed. 

[Glacier Peak]

So 100 emails X 2 billion per email = 200 billion influence for storage per character

 

Add in the ability to throw inf on impossible bids....

Add in the max quantity of allowable recipes, enhancements, and salvage (at whatever the highest going rate for each respectively), inspirations (ultimates or supers really)

Add in personal base storage quantities saved of the above maybe? Or that might not be an accurate gauge...

 

How much inf can a player have in their figurative pockets??

 

[Yomo Kimyata]

15 minutes ago, Glacier Peak said:

So 100 emails X 2 billion per email = 200 billion influence for storage per character

 

Add in the ability to throw inf on impossible bids....

Add in the max quantity of allowable recipes, enhancements, and salvage (at whatever the highest going rate for each respectively), inspirations (ultimates or supers really)

Add in personal base storage quantities saved of the above maybe? Or that might not be an accurate gauge...

 

How much inf can a player have in their figurative pockets??

 

 

Only 999,999,999 inf per email.  

 

So per account, you can have 99,999,999,900 stored in email.  You have 1,000 character slots per shard for total of 5,000.  Each character can hold 2bn, and has up to 200 market slots.

 

Lots.  And then you can have an unlimited number of accounts.  So unlimited lots.

[Glacier Peak]

3 minutes ago, Yomo Kimyata said:

Only 999,999,999 inf per email.  

 

So per account, you can have 99,999,999,900 stored in email.  You have 1,000 character slots per shard for total of 5,000.  Each character can hold 2bn, and has up to 200 market slots.

 

Lots.  And then you can have an unlimited number of accounts.  So unlimited lots.

Ah thank you for the correction! So 999.9 million influence x 100, plus the 2 billion a player can hold. 

 

So without taking in to account (lol) other characters on an account, how much can ONE character hold altogether? Approximately? Or even a guess?

[Yomo Kimyata]

1 minute ago, Glacier Peak said:

Ah thank you for the correction! So 999.9 million influence x 100, plus the 2 billion a player can hold. 

 

So without taking in to account (lol) other characters on an account, how much can ONE character hold altogether? Approximately? Or even a guess?

 

That depends on (and I've never tried this) whether or not bids over a certain amount stack.  You've noticed that if you have a bid for something and you bid the same amount again, your bid is replaced by a bid for 2x that item.  I don't think that works on every item though, and I don't know if you can get a stack to total over 2bn.

 

If not, then 200*2bn + 100*0.999999999bn + 2bn?

[SmalltalkJava]

lol  I was looking for them to be on sale now.   I didn't realize this is the Halloween event and not the Winter event.   When does the winter event usually start?

Edited October 15, 2021 by SmalltalkJava

[nihilii]

10 hours ago, SmalltalkJava said:

lol  I was looking for them to be on sale now.   I didn't realize this is the Halloween event and not the Winter event.   When does the winter event usually start?

 

Holy cow, we're already in mid-October. How time flies. Thank you for posting this. I think I'm still sitting on hundreds of winter packs I need to unload!!

Edited October 16, 2021 by nihilii

[Ukase]

Winter packs, historically, have gone on sale the first Tuesday of December. (server maintenance/reset) I have seen nothing to suggest this sale will happen again this year, nor have I seen anything saying it won't. 

It's a strange thing. I fully expected a Nemesis event this Summer, to follow the previous years experience, but it didn't happen for whatever reason. So, we never really know. For a group of GM/Devs that are historically transparent, they sure aren't very transparent about Nemesis...but that's probably by design, a Nemesis Plot. 
 

[Troyusrex]

What I wonder is whether Winter Packs will be so overbought this year that they won't get back to 25M before winter event 2022 kicks in...

[Yomo Kimyata]

The biggest problem I've been having is that I have a real need for a bunch of WOs right now.  I'm not willing to pay up for them now when I know they will be 60%+ off in a month, and I'm not willing to wait a month.  Decisions!

[Aeroprism]

On 11/6/2021 at 1:46 PM, Yomo Kimyata said:

The biggest problem I've been having is that I have a real need for a bunch of WOs right now.  I'm not willing to pay up for them now when I know they will be 60%+ off in a month, and I'm not willing to wait a month.  Decisions!

 

What do you need? I have a few hundred in stock I can send you way, send them back when you can get more at a price you like. I really don't mind.

[Yomo Kimyata]

18 hours ago, Aeroprism said:

 

What do you need? I have a few hundred in stock I can send you way, send them back when you can get more at a price you like. I really don't mind.

 

That is very kind of you, my friend, but I couldn't justify the cost to you and me in inconvenience just because I didn't want to spend a few million more of an imaginary currency that I already have too much of!  I've solved my problem (and made a profit doing it, naturally!)

[Aeroprism]

51 minutes ago, Yomo Kimyata said:

 I've solved my problem (and made a profit doing it, naturally!)

 

As expected of the legend.

 

Considering how I haven't got a single Lv50 so far, I need to liquidate all these Winter Purples before the new (hypothetical) event starts.

[Hedgefund]

It looks like there's a resurgence of demand to buy Winter Packs at full retail.  Weeks ago, after I had liquidated all the packs I had planned to (kept some in reserve, just in case), I put some up for sale at my normal ask price, just to gauge when that ask would win bids again.  The packs did languish there until about a week ago when they surprisingly sold.  Then I went and emptied my reserves.  All sold.

 

My point here is, if you think it's too late to sell your WPs for a full retail or very close, it's not.