Remembered one of the things I hate about CoH... its RNG.

[Jeuraud]

This morning I was trying a couple of Corrupter ideas, and I was having to take a knee, or even dying... a lot. I started paying closer attention and noticed I was missing a lot. This was especially noticeable with /Dark's TG, which I was missing 2 and even 3 times in a row. I checked my combat record and was getting a lot of this,

 

Hit

Hit

Miss

Streakbreaker

Miss

Streakbreaker

Hit

Miss

Streakbreaker

Miss

Streakbreaker

 

Murphy was having fun with me this morning.

I have never understood why the CoH Devs took their RNG to the 100th place; what I do understand is how frustrating it is to roll a 95 and still have 99 chances to miss, and there is absolutely nothing I can do about it.

 

One of the things I've also noticed is that the MOBs consistently hit with their first two attacks, and then will start missing. I've also noticed that MOBs consistently roll lower numbers, and I roll higher numbers. I've always wondered if there is something in the Attack formulas that causes this, or is it just viewer bias, because I'm only looking at the combat record because I'm frustrated.

 

So now that the code is out I'm wondering if any of you code people have looked at the Attack formulas?

[Frostbiter]

It's been gone over with a fine-tooth comb. Even with the streak breaker it's streaky and at low levels it's a right PITA.

[Hopeling]

I admit I never quite understood why the original CoH devs felt that hit chances should be capped at 95%.

 

RNG means "random number generator", not "consistent number generator". Sometimes you will have streaks of weird luck, like several misses in a short period of time, or getting hit by a lot of enemies at once, because that is how randomness works. However, this kind of question has been examined many times, and I don't think an irregularity in hit/miss chances has ever been found.

[Bopper]

8 minutes ago, Hopeling said:

I admit I never quite understood why the original CoH devs felt that hit chances should be capped at 95%.

 

RNG means "random number generator", not "consistent number generator". Sometimes you will have streaks of weird luck, like several misses in a short period of time, or getting hit by a lot of enemies at once, because that is how randomness works. However, this kind of question has been examined many times, and I don't think an irregularity in hit/miss chances has ever been found.

Also, the game includes streak breakers which take away from the randomness. Ultimately, if you play the game long enough you will encounter moments of bad luck. 

[jubakumbi]

A game without an RNG is not a game worth playing, IMO.

Random means Random, which includes all the odd stuff, like 5 natural 20's in a row.

 

This game is already so easily exploited to make our characters powerful, clamping at 95% makes at least some impact on our immortality, I like it.

 

The Universe is fickle, our characters play with the very nature of reality.

Even the best Supers miss at times and it furthers the story.

 

If it was all predictable, it would be so, so boring, IMO.

[Llewellyn Blackwell]

accuracy in general early on is abit rough, once you hit lvl 12 and can make accuracy IOs a pair of those should end all real to hit issues. Keep in mind when fighting dark themed users like skulls, or the ghosts in the cot for example your acc is going to get wrecked as soon as they land a glove on you. Hit them hard and fast and carry plenty of yellows to prevent being made basically blind.

 

Ive tossed dice at the table top long enough to know there are things as hot and cold streaks. I recall one night a player in a D&D session had a very well built and equipped character die when a lucky kobold who began with a charge with a spear rolled 3 20s in a row against him and while that heroic kobold then got shredded by the rest of the party he had still killed their single strongest party member.

 

Sometimes quantum entanglement is just not going to be on your side. Blame it on bad karma from a previous life, work on improving your karma in this one, and hope that in your next life you are so blessed as to only ever roll nat 20s!

[Jeuraud]

52 minutes ago, Hopeling said:

I admit I never quite understood why the original CoH devs felt that hit chances should be capped at 95%.

 

RNG means "random number generator", not "consistent number generator". Sometimes you will have streaks of weird luck, like several misses in a short period of time, or getting hit by a lot of enemies at once, because that is how randomness works. However, this kind of question has been examined many times, and I don't think an irregularity in hit/miss chances has ever been found.

95% is a 1 on a D20, which in AD&D was an automatic failure.

The thing is I've been gaming since the late 70's and back to back 1s was so rare that it was a momentous event. In CoH it was so common that they had to put in the Streakbreaker.

[jubakumbi]

4 minutes ago, Jeuraud said:

95% is a 1 on a D20, which in AD&D was an automatic failure.

The thing is I've been gaming since the late 70's and back to back 1s was so rare that it was a momentous event. In CoH it was so common that they had to put in the Streakbreaker.

Thousands and thousands of rolls vs. the few we make in gaming seesion produces what we see in games.

 

As an example, in IT, I see HDs fail all the time, yet everyone I have hired is always baffled because in thier consumer/normal lives, it does not happen often.

 

Humans are pattern seeking creatures that basically detest random because there is no pattern and that pisses us off...

[Jeuraud]

30 minutes ago, Bentley Berkeley said:

once you hit lvl 12 and can make accuracy IOs a pair of those should end all real to hit issues.

False.

Miss... Streakbreaker... Miss... Streakbreaker

Means I had a 95% chance to hit. Acc is pretty much the only TO I slot, and I also had a -Def attack. I had 95% against even the +1s but Murphy through the RNG was messing with me this morning.

 

13 minutes ago, jubakumbi said:

Thousands and thousands of rolls vs. the few we make in gaming seesion produces what we see in games.

This makes sense, but I'd still rather have someone who has looked at the Attack code, who was not a CoHV Dev, tell me that the Attack code is clean. I'm just stubborn that way.

 

[jubakumbi]

2 minutes ago, Jeuraud said:

This makes sense, but I'd still rather have someone who has looked at the Attack code, who was not a CoHV Dev, tell me that the Attack code is clean. I'm just stubborn that way.

 

And that was answered just a few posts above...it's been done.

If you want to look at it, you can go get it as well.

 

Just 'stubbornly' requesting others confirm it does not do much for me. 🙂

 

This is issue has gne on for years, in all MMOs I have _ever_ played.

Humans are convinced there _must_ be a pattern.

 

If you do even a cursory Google search on computer randomness at scale, you will find all the data you need, IMO.

[justicebeliever]

5 hours ago, jubakumbi said:

And that was answered just a few posts above...it's been done.

If you want to look at it, you can go get it as well.

 

Just 'stubbornly' requesting others confirm it does not do much for me. 🙂

 

This is issue has gne on for years, in all MMOs I have _ever_ played.

Humans are convinced there _must_ be a pattern.

 

If you do even a cursory Google search on computer randomness at scale, you will find all the data you need, IMO.

This is spot on...Great example of this is when you buy a new/used car, and suddenly your amazed at just how many other people have the exact same car as you...Where were they before?  They were there, you just didn't notice them...

Edited July 29, 2019 by justicebeliever
grammer

[Jeuraud]

5 minutes ago, jubakumbi said:

And that was answered just a few posts above...it's been done.

Going back and re-reading Frostbiter's post I can see he might have been talking about the code, but when I first read his post I thought he was talking about how we have been talking about this since 2004.

8 minutes ago, jubakumbi said:

If you want to look at it, you can go get it as well.

 

Just 'stubbornly' requesting others confirm it does not do much for me. 🙂

I would not have a fricken clue where to even start.

What I do know is how to use a Manufacturing Equipment PLC to troubleshoot the piece of manufacturing equipment. I know where the ASN-84 Gyros are on the P3C Aircraft, and even what they do.

You getting my drift here.

[jubakumbi]

1 minute ago, Jeuraud said:

You getting my drift here.

You like rigorous testing results, and that is fine, they make me happy as well.

 

This is a game, not something that has to be testing as if it supports human life. 🙂

For me, it really is just that simple.

This is not medical code, banking code, or guideance system code, it is just a game.

 

I prefer the creative over the rigously tested in this case.

 

Games are simply not made in the same way as 'control code'.

[Frostbiter]

6 minutes ago, Jeuraud said:

Going back and re-reading Frostbiter's post I can see he might have been talking about the code, but when I first read his post I thought he was talking about how we have been talking about this since 2004.

I would not have a fricken clue where to even start.

What I do know is how to use a Manufacturing Equipment PLC to troubleshoot the piece of manufacturing equipment. I know where the ASN-84 Gyros are on the P3C Aircraft, and even what they do.

You getting my drift here.

We have Arcanaville. I've heard if you say her name 3 times she comes out and gives you a report card with an "F" on it. Or you can read about some of the stuff here:

 

https://paragonwiki.com/wiki/Attack_Mechanics

[Hopeling]

28 minutes ago, Jeuraud said:

Miss... Streakbreaker... Miss... Streakbreaker

Means I had a 95% chance to hit.

Yes, so getting two misses in a row (with streakbreaker in between, since that's guaranteed) has a probability of .05*.05=.0025, or 1 in 400. How many attacks do you throw in an hour of gameplay? Probably a lot more than 400. Something would be wrong if this DIDN'T happen fairly regularly.

[justicebeliever]

2 minutes ago, Hopeling said:

Yes, so getting two misses in a row (with streakbreaker in between, since that's guaranteed) has a probability of .05*.05=.0025, or 1 in 400. How many attacks do you throw in an hour of gameplay? Probably a lot more than 400. Something would be wrong if this DIDN'T happen fairly regularly.

Don't tell me you just used Math on this!  Don't you go there!  

 

Kids these days, spouting facts and using logic.  Why in my day, we never looked at the odds...We'd tell our droids to never tell us the odds...

[Jeuraud]

39 minutes ago, Hopeling said:

Yes, so getting two misses in a row (with streakbreaker in between, since that's guaranteed) has a probability of .05*.05=.0025, or 1 in 400. How many attacks do you throw in an hour of gameplay? Probably a lot more than 400. Something would be wrong if this DIDN'T happen fairly regularly.

Except I was getting multiple Double Streakbreakers, on two different LowB characters, and as a Soloer who does Lowb missions at +0 there is no way that I throw even 400 in an hour. And as an Altaholic I have run a lot of LowB characters since I started CoHH and I have not had the issue I had this morning, though I have had them every so often in CoHV.

 

As a Maintenance Tech who worked closely with Engineers, I know that things did not always work in the real world, as the math said it should, mostly because they did not have all the variables: this was especially true with the Engineers who would forget/ignore the KISS principle. I'm not sure if the CoH Devs had ever heard of KISS.

 

The CoH RNG itself is anything but KISS, and I wonder what variables have been added to the Attack Run to make the math work in the real world, and are there 1s and 0s being sent to it every so often that cause the Attack Run to go sideways. Intermittent faults are one of the most frustrating things for Maintenance; If CoH was a machine with a PLC I could figure it out... eventually, but it's not, so I was asking if anyone had looked at the code.

 

 

 

[HelenCarnate]

Track several thousand attacks and then if you are way off the expectations of hitting 95% of the time then you have a case to blame the RNG as faulty.  

 

You can even just track all the mob rolls as well and they should be all fairly even with 10k rolls or more.

Edited July 29, 2019 by HelenCarnate

[MunkiLord]

In a large sample size the numbers will probably be close to what the game says they should be. That being said, true randomness isn't a thing, so it's entirely possible there is a flaw in the algorithm used. But there would need be a ton of supporting evidence to support that.

[Bopper]

Can you confirm you had a 95% chance to hit? Base is 75%, but I don't know your targets or slotting. 

 

If you want to do a real test, don't focus on the hit result, focus on the numbers. Run thousands of rolls and look at the distribution of the roll numbers. If it's not uniform, then you have a case. Until then, I will chalk this up as bad luck that happens 1 out of 5,332 times

Edited July 29, 2019 by Bopper

[AerialAssault]

To be honest, the "Hit Miss Hit Miss Hit" scenario doesn't bother me as much as say, 80% to hit when you get "Miss Miss Miss Streakbreak Miss Miss Miss"

 

BUT, if we're talking about hatred of the fickle Random Number Demon, I think we're forgetting the real enemy:

 

Enhancement Converters

 

[Hopeling]

1 hour ago, Jeuraud said:

Except I was getting multiple Double Streakbreakers, on two different LowB characters, and as a Soloer who does Lowb missions at +0 there is no way that I throw even 400 in an hour. And as an Altaholic I have run a lot of LowB characters since I started CoHH and I have not had the issue I had this morning, though I have had them every so often in CoHV.

So statistically, this issue should be rare, and you've found that it is in fact rare, and this makes you think that something is wrong...?

 

It's possible that the attack roll mechanics are broken. But the last 600 times the question was asked and then checked, it turned out that it was working normally, and somebody just had a run of bad luck and/or confirmation bias, so at this point most people are pretty skeptical when it comes up again. If you're curious, run HeroStats for a while and gather data, then see if that backs up what you're saying. "I feel like I miss a lot sometimes" isn't much to go on.

 

Incidentally, even accounting for travel time and non-gapless lowbie attack chains, you're almost certainly still throwing hundreds of attacks per hour. If you clear your way through a short solo mission with five 3-minion spawns, and take 3 attacks to kill each minion, that's 45 attacks right there. How many short solo missions can you do in an hour? How many do you run in a week? The odds of something strange happening somewhere in there are quite good.

[Lunchmoney]

40 minutes ago, AerialAssault said:

I think we're forgetting the real enemy

Nemesis?

[Generator]

400 attacks an hour breaks down to only about 7 per minute.  The only way you're not making that many to-hit checks is if you're playing one of those "pure support" nitwits that think attack powers are the work of the devil.

 

/aside

[GM Fiddleback]

I just put this here for reference, not as commentary.: https://paragonwiki.com/wiki/Attack_Mechanics