Not complaining, but 14 conversions...in a 3 to a set?

[Ukase]

Figured I'd check in on a marketing character. Hadn't logged them on in a few days. Some bids were accepted, so I went to work. 43 converters to get the 40k investment of recipe, salvage and crafting in...but the converting kind of hurt on this one. I will still profit, but a 3m hit on the opportunity cost of 43 converters...ouchie. 

[Frozen Burn]

I've spent up to 75-100 converters trying to get the enhancement I wanted.  The RNG on these can be extremely frustrating and rage inducing. 

 

I wished the randomness was semi-limited so that you go through each enh in a set before repeating - especially for the sets with 6 enhs.  There would still be the randomness from early conversions, and you can still get your lucky hit in 1-3 conversions but as you get towards the end of the set, it becomes more assured you get what you want.  It is SO maddening to go through 5 out 6 enhs multiple times over and never reaching that 6th one that you really want.

 

Same can be applied to set type conversions:  For example, if you're trying to turn a Triage into a Miracle, it can take a real miracle to get it sometimes - especially if it is attuned because that's 2 more set possibilities in the mix!  But ideally, your conversion would go through all appropriate healing sets until you get to the one you want (Miracle, in this example).  You could get it in 1 conversion, but you would at least get in it 4-6 conversions max (depending on level of enh or if it is attuned). 

 

Trying to convert an attuned melee or ranged IO into another melee or ranged, respectively - is a nightmare!  And statistically IS a miracle to get what you want because there are 10 sets of each to bounce between!  

 

This system would eliminate all the bouncing back and forth between 2 or 3 enhs/sets and never hitting the one you want.  You would be at least assured a successful hit at sometime relatively "soon."  And if you make a mistake and convert past the one you want (as I'm sure others have done before too) or if you change your mind, the cycle continues until you hit all possibilities and start from the original enh or set.

Edited February 26, 2022 by Frozen Burn

[Yomo Kimyata]

There's a lot of situations where there is a coin toss in terms of outcomes, and this is one.  Once you hit AH, there is a 50-50 chance you will get the one you want.  If you don't, then there is a 50-50 chance you will get the one you want on the next roll, and so on.  

 

I don't have any reason to believe the RNG is biased, but the odds are that you can expect to roll an AH ten times before getting the proc 1 in 1,024 times.  And I've got to tell you it feels like that happens a hell of a lot more frequently than one out of a thousand times.  And that, lads and lasses and huges, is a great example of observational bias!

[Ukase]

I think if they were to adjust the conversions in such a fashion, then the exchange rate of converters (1 reward merit = 3 converters) would have to change, but I can't figure out a "fair" exchange rate. I kind of think they are too cheap as is, but that's easy for me to say now that I've amassed...I dunno somewhere close to 400B, if not more. 

Rebirth has a 250K fee for each conversion and 5 reward merits gets you 1 converter! Seems real steep to me given the state of their awful Auction House. But that's they're problem. For HC, there's a small contingent of players that are still kind of new, still rather poor in inf, and balk at the exchange rate as it is. 

I'd love to see how many players get to 50 and have no idea what to use the converters for! 

I'm thinking a good rate would be 2 reward merits = 3 converters, with a 100k fee might be better.  Or maybe waive the fee. 

On the bright side, I can't count how many times I've done a single conversion and gotten something great! So, as mentioned in the initial post, I am certainly not complaining. But that was certainly the worst RNG experience I can remember with converters. 

[Six-Six]

Oof. The RNG gods don't like YOU! haha. 

I've noticed that when I pray to the said gods, with sincere intention in my heart and mind (sometimes with an offering of a shot of tequila or rum), that I still don't get what I want. 😃

[Ukase]

3 hours ago, Six-Six said:

Oof. The RNG gods don't like YOU! haha. 

I've noticed that when I pray to the said gods, with sincere intention in my heart and mind (sometimes with an offering of a shot of tequila or rum), that I still don't get what I want. 😃

Actually, I violated my own rule. But it was late, and I wanted to go to bed, but I wanted to finish things up. 

My rule is, if I don't get what I want within 3 conversions (on a 3 set), simply stop. Do something else for 5 minutes. Then come back to it. 

You'd be surprised how well that worked in Vegas on the video poker machines. 

[Andreah]

The possibility it will take a long time is one of the key deterrents for many people to try doing conversions. Instead, they go to the market.  (The other big ones being, they don't know how, or that they don't know it's even possible).

 

A professional converter knows there will occasionally be a long string of fails, but presses on, secure in the knowledge that the law of large numbers is on their side, and it will all average out to a net profit.

[Hedgefund]

Same for how one would actually do proper play with video poker too.

[Andreah]

For the curious, I found a page which describes the probabilities of runs of the same outcome in what are basically dice rolls.

 

https://www.gregegan.net/QUARANTINE/Runs/Runs.html

 

In the OP's case, there were 14 one out of two fails in a row -- coin flips, basically. The linked page includes a calculator at the very bottom, and using it, we can see that if we were to toss a coin 1,000 times, (d=2, M=1000) then the chance of getting 14 of a specific result in a row (N=14) is about 3%. Not particularly low. 

 

I do a few thousand conversions each month, so in the course of a year, I probably do 20-30,000 of them. In this case, my chance of seeing a similarly frustrating case is likely over 50%. If there are ten or twenty other marketeers doing the same, chances are a result like this pops up every few weeks, for someone, somewhere.

 

One of the things in the news that amuses me is how astounded people get when facially very rare events occur, without really thinking about how many different chances to get these kinds of events there actually are. When you throw the dice enough times, you get some weird stuff.

 

And when you go looking for them, they're pretty easy to find.

 

[Glacier Peak]

I'm thinking in the grand scheme of converter roulette that this is normal. The way I look at it, every conversion could potentially be valuable to someone (meaning a 100% convert to desired item), but since I'm picky, the extra conversions are what I pay for to get exactly what I want. There isn't luck or external force involved. Something to the effect of "one person's trash is another's treasure"

[iBot]

Personally, I'd rather they ditch the RNG of conversions and just give us another tier or 3 that just cost more converters but give more targeted options.  You can already spend 100 merits to get almost any recipe so maybe tie it into that value.  Then just say for 50 converters you get to choose the in set conversion you want.  Or hell even throw in the salvage required for the actual item if you had crafted it from a recipe on top of the converters.  I don't know, if going to go that far may as well include the cost of the crafting inf as well.  But really any system that gives that level of control is just a bypass for crafting so <shrug>.  I suppose the ultimate question is "why is the converter system in place?"  Is it so that players can change unwanted recipes into desired ones to use?  Is it so that players can change unwanted recipes into desired ones to sell?  A mix of the two?  Either way I think easier conversions would have an unforeseen detrimental affect on the market as a whole so I would be careful what you wish for here.

[Andreah]

I don't mind the RNG. It's not like there's incredible 1 in a Thousand or a million chances we're going for. It does put some possibility of frustration in the system, but it's very manageable to those who use it enough to have a high chance of encountering long unlucky streaks.

[Marshal_General]

There should at least something that will keep you from converting to the same IO you are converting from. I swear this happened to me at least twice the last time I did it.

[Andreah]

17 minutes ago, Marshal_General said:

There should at least something that will keep you from converting to the same IO you are converting from. I swear this happened to me at least twice the last time I did it.

I don't think I've ever seen this happen.  If you can provide a case example, and document it, it's something they should fix. 

 

However, it's certainly possible to cycle through the same IO and back again while converting within a class. For example, if one's converting inside a set, there's at most six possibilities, and you're going to come back around to previous ones at least every six conversions. It doesn't 'remember' which one you started from and could easily come back to that one many times over, but if it converts from a piece to that same exact piece in one try, that's a bug.

[Yomo Kimyata]

I've definitely converted from a specific piece (let's say Celerity Run Speed) to something else, then back to a Celerity Run Speed in two conversions.  The odds are long, but I've done a LOT of converting in my day.  You can also convert by rarity and get the same category, e.g., convert a GotA run speed by rarity and get a Reactive Defenses D/E.  But you cannot convert by rarity, or by category, and end up in the same set after one conversion (much less the same exact IO you started with).  It's programmed so that isn't possible.  If that happens, it's a colossal bug that I've never seen before.  Might I suggest that maybe you thought you clicked the convert button, but it didn't take because of lag or whatever?

[The_Warpact]

Big deal I went through 300+ of them trying to get the Hecatomb proc.

Yeah its shit.

 

[Tahliah]

It's frustrating, but any changes would be more negative than positive.  If we are "guaranteed" the enh we want if we roll through three or six (or however big the set is), then that devalues the enh.  Most of us have more converters than is really sustainable in terms of the game economy, so burning more than we'd like to get the result we'd like is not really a hardship.  But I agree, it is frustrating as all get out.

[iBot]

Personally it isn't the number of converters it is the number of clicks.  I'd like to amend my previous post to say that I'd be OK if they'd just add a button that says "Convert until I get XYZ enh or run out of converters."  That would solve the problem for me and require no changes other than a quick calculation to decide under the hood what the average number of converters should be to come up with a particular enh.  And I believe some even here on these forums have down a good chunk of that work. 👍

Edited March 3, 2022 by iBot
spez

[Andreah]

6 hours ago, iBot said:

Personally it isn't the number of converters it is the number of clicks.  I'd like to amend my previous post to say that I'd be OK if they'd just add a button that says "Convert until I get XYZ enh or run out of converters."  That would solve the problem for me and require no changes other than a quick calculation to decide under the hood what the average number of converters should be to come up with a particular enh.  And I believe some even here on these forums have down a good chunk of that work. 👍

I position my convert window such that the convert button is immediately above the enhancement in the tray I'm converting. Then I pick the enhancement up and drop it on the convert button and click in one smooth motion. It's still two mouse actions - one click, drag & drop and one follow-up click, but the total mouse movement seems more precise, faster, and easier on my fingers. I just have to be careful to not keep going after I have the target I want.

[iBot]

I suppose with some macro programming wizardry I could automate the clicking.  The hard part is getting the macro to stop when a certain enh is obtained.  It is also probably another reason why I don't do it all that often except when trying to get an ATO I want from one of the packs.  First world problems I know... 🤪