Winter Superpack - Boom or Bust?

[Troyusrex]

So, I happened to try to log in while the servers were down and saw that Winter super pacs are going from 25 mil to 10 mil. So I spent 2 Billion influence on them figuring I could make some of the money back before the market adjusts to the new inflow of supply. 

 

My guess is I'll either make a fortune or lose a billion on this deal! Either way, it should be interesting...

[Troyusrex]

The prices on the enhancements from this super pack have already tanked and went from over 20 million each to 2 million or so. I’ve made about a billion back and have 68 enhancements left to sell. 
after you add in all the other stuff that is sellable (reward merits, catalysts, brainstorms, boosters, etc) I expect to end up about where I started with Influence, but to have a few hundred team inspirations and dozens of temp powers. 
All-in-all, an enjoyable experiment!

[MunkiLord]

Did the HC team lower the price, is this some sort of error, or is somebody trying to crash the market?

[Troyusrex]

HC team lowered it for the winter event.

 

And my Calculations were WAY off... I ended up with just under 3,000 reward merits which is another billion if I convert them to enhancement converters. So, a very good haul (although a lot of work for it).

Edited November 29, 2019 by Troyusrex

[Yomo Kimyata]

I’m away from the game, but I suspect I’m going to log in and be owning a LOT of winter packs.  Never thought they would cut prices that much!

[MunkiLord]

If this is temporary I'll spend a few billion and sit on them for a while. 

[Yomo Kimyata]

11 minutes ago, MunkiLord said:

If this is temporary I'll spend a few billion and sit on them for a while. 

You and me both.  I now own several thousand winter packs.  The very thought of opening them gives me the "chills".

[Troyusrex]

2 hours ago, Yomo Kimyata said:

You and me both.  I now own several thousand winter packs.  The very thought of opening them gives me the "chills".

Opening the 200 of them was the worst part! Well, maybe selling the converters 10 at a time is (I should have traded my reward merits for Purples instead. Less overall profit but far less of a time investment).

Overall, this has been crazy profitable for me. I already have 500 million in influence more than when i started and I have 7,872 more converters to sell as well as a a few hundred unslotters and boosters!

[Yomo Kimyata]

I knew a Winter Pack discount was coming, but would never have imagined a Black Friday discount of 60% off.  I had parked a lot of influence there in 10mm bids.  If I asked nicely, they would probably reverse it, but I’m not a complainer by nature and let’s see what I can do with this from here.

 

i feel bad for anyone who had a bunch of bids for winter os in the high teens.  A few months ago I was buying the hold winter os for 12-14mm, spending a few converters and selling them for >20mm.  Not enough flow for my tastes so I (luckily) mostly got out of the market.

[Myrmidon]

While they are cheap, I am going to pick up many of them for my own use.

[vysirez]

Not exactly related, but I decided to try one of these, the Very rare I got was 80 brainstorm ideas. Am I missing something on what those are used for? Cause right now it looks like a booby prize of 4 rare salvage, worth about 2.4 million. Is there some worthwhile use for these?

[Troyusrex]

7 hours ago, vysirez said:

Not exactly related, but I decided to try one of these, the Very rare I got was 80 brainstorm ideas. Am I missing something on what those are used for? Cause right now it looks like a booby prize of 4 rare salvage, worth about 2.4 million. Is there some worthwhile use for these?

You are correct, you can turn those 80 brainstorm points into 4 rare salvage and that's it (all I know of, anyway). You were unlucky on the draw. 😞

[macskull]

I bought 61 packs. I'm going to use the enhancements as I'm able but otherwise have set aside a bin in my SG base to hang onto them until prices go back up.

[Broken_Prey]

I'm assuming this is temporary, only for the winter event. So I have been buying a lot. I'll use some and hold on to the others to sell later. It's a long wait but what else I'm I going to spend all my inf on? 

[hazygreys]

5 hours ago, Broken_Prey said:

I'm assuming this is temporary, only for the winter event. So I have been buying a lot. I'll use some and hold on to the others to sell later. It's a long wait but what else I'm I going to spend all my inf on? 

Haven't seen them mention otherwise so I'd assume it's just for winter event. 

[DoctorDitko]

Didn't see them mention it at all, where did you learn about the new pricing?

[Display Name]

2 minutes ago, DoctorDitko said:

Didn't see them mention it at all, where did you learn about the new pricing?

https://forums.homecomingservers.com/topic/12962-homecoming-server-update-november-29th-winter/

 

[DoctorDitko]

Sorry! I guess I just missed it. Saw the re-roll-out announcement and went off to play.

Thanks!

[Cutter]

I don't dedicated farm so my pockets aren't that deep, but I still bought 4x each enhancement (paid between 5M and 9M because impatience) for use, and ~30 packs to sit on for later. Small potatoes compared to many here, but way more than I could ever do back on live!

[Myrmidon]

On 12/3/2019 at 11:32 AM, Cutter said:

I don't dedicated farm so my pockets aren't that deep, but I still bought 4x each enhancement (paid between 5M and 9M because impatience) for use, and ~30 packs to sit on for later. Small potatoes compared to many here, but way more than I could ever do back on live!

 The Parable of Talents. It doesn’t matter how many you have, it’s what you do with them that counts.

[Erydanus]

On 11/29/2019 at 11:04 PM, Yomo Kimyata said:

I knew a Winter Pack discount was coming, but would never have imagined a Black Friday discount of 60% off.

 

It was stated when Super Packs were implemented shortly after launch that the Winter Packs would drop to 10 mil in price for the winter event.

[Yomo Kimyata]

My mistake, I missed that!  
 

I’ve been trying to work my way out of this unexpected cache, and it’s surprisingly easy so far.  I just can’t bear to open more than 50-100 packs at a time, but it seems profitable so far.  I’ve really only used Avalanche for my builds, but all except Entomb seem to be selling well and to be covering the cost of the pack.

[Myrmidon]

9 minutes ago, Yomo Kimyata said:

My mistake, I missed that!  
 

I’ve been trying to work my way out of this unexpected cache, and it’s surprisingly easy so far.  I just can’t bear to open more than 50-100 packs at a time, but it seems profitable so far.  I’ve really only used Avalanche for my builds, but all except Entomb seem to be selling well and to be covering the cost of the pack.

I have seven sets going into alts, so I have enjoyed this so far.

[Ukase]

It's clearly a ridiculous sale. Imagine...you buy them for 10m. You wait a month, and relist them for ...15M, or 20M? Going to be interesting to see how many do this and how low they'll go just to get that sale, losing millions in the process. 

What's more - it isn't so much the inf you might make, but the inf you might save by not selling them. Oddly, the packs that I have opened, almost all of them had 2 winter IOs. I was hoping for more windfalls, but there may be more in the remaining 200 packs I have. I certainly won't need to buy any more packs until maybe next year, lol. 

Also, interesting to me - the Superior Winter sets...they used to be the same price as the non-superiors. Then, this changed, but I'm not sure when.  Maybe the AH prices were glitching when I looked. Could've sworn they were in the same bucket, but it doesn't seem to be the case anymore. 

[Erydanus]

Someone commented on the help channel I think that over 100 packs they were averaging 1.4 winter IOs.  I didn't bother tracking my own openings but it kinda feels right.

 

The thing about sitting on a winter IO with the intent of selling it later for a higher price is that you could be flipping that money and making more RIGHT NOW, so it's actually going to cost you (opportunity) money to save them. I'd sit on one that's not selling well just until the market thins a bit and list it, but that's it. Now, as the packs are about to go up in price, that would be the time to stock up and wait for later. However, I suspect that everyone's going to do that so the price jump may not happen for a while after the packs go offsale.  As it is, since they're attuned, I've been yanking the occasional one out of circulation and actually slotting it so I have some fairly low level alts who have multiple complete sets of these things already.