153 Super Packs

[Troyusrex]

Just to see what would happen I bought 153 Super Packs (Rogues and Vigilantes) and put everything immediately on the market for 1 inf. All Merit Rewards were converted to converters (wow... what a lot of clicks to sell those...)

 

All told, I ended up losing about 5%, but I gained a ton of inspirations and temp powers. Had I tried, even the tiniest bit, to get better sales prices I could have easily made a good profit.  Of particular note is how little I got for ATOs by just throwing them all on the market ($4.6M each). Just a little patience and converting would have netted me at least 6M, likely 8 or even ten. I averaged just over 1.2 ATOs per pack, which is right around what I usually see. 

 

	# per Super Pack	# acquired	Total $$ sold for	Average $ per
Enhancement Unslotter	2.30	352	$           27,609,965	$        78,437.40
Catalyst	0.20	30	$           75,330,023	$        2,511,001
Converter	1.60	245	$           16,929,465	$             69,100
Booster	0.18	28	$           31,500,000	$        1,125,000
ATOs	1.20	184	$         843,881,974	$        4,586,315
Rewards X25	0.44	67	$         370,849,183	$        5,535,062
Brain StormX20	0.90	138	$           55,935,035	$           405,326
Total			$      1,422,035,645

Edited March 15, 2020 by Troyusrex

[Yomo Kimyata]

Thanks for biting the bullet on this one.  This reinforces what I already knew:  there are no quality bids.  There is so much inf in the system that you either buy what you want right now at whatever price, or you lowball your bids and make a profit if you want to trade out of it.  sub 5mm ATOs on average sounds really low to me, but I mostly got out of that market as a seller a while ago.

[EmperorSteele]

Oh, so YOU'RE the one who crashed ATO prices. Thanks =P

[Obus Form]

Seems to be his thing.

 

Stay away from purples and winter's please 😃

[Bopper]

The main interesting thing here is the ratio of items per pack. The 1.2 ATO per pack is what I typically see too, but it's nice to see the other results as well. I'd recommend using that unused column to show these ratios.

[Troyusrex]

Since my area is locked down, I was bored, and I needed to replenish my ATOs, I bought 229 Hero backs (the 153 was all Rogues) and compared the drop rates. Unlike before, I'm not going to just throw them all on the market at 1 inf (you are welcome!). Still, I thought the relative drop rates would be of interest.  

 

On a related note, I take the team inspirations, grab all the attack ones, and use them on Hami runs. Buffing the entire blaster squad to 400% makes a BIG difference when trying to take down Hami before the respawn. 

 

	Average drops per super pack			Expected Return per super pack
	Heroes	Rogues	Expected $$ Per	Heroes	Rogues
Unslotter	1.45	2.30	$                 100,000	$             145,415	$         230,065
Catalyst	0.09	0.20	$              2,800,000	$             256,769	$         549,020
Converter	1.45	1.60	$                   85,000	$             123,603	$         136,111
Booster	0.27	0.18	$              1,200,000	$             324,891	$         219,608
ATOs	1.23	1.20	$              6,000,000	$          7,362,445	$      7,215,686
Rewards X25	0.36	0.44	$              6,375,000	$          2,310,590	$      2,791,667
Brain Storm X20	1.11	0.90	$                 500,000	$             554,585	$         450,980
Total				$        11,078,297	$    11,593,137
			-10% Consignment	$          9,970,467	$    10,433,824

[Obus Form]

Anyone have a macro to open the Heroes and Villains, Rogues, or Winter packs?

 

With prices on Winter IOs dropping to 20 million, it is not profitable to even open Winter packs and convert anymore.  The tedium itself is just over the top.

[Sakai]

I finally opened my 50 winterpacks yesturday. Ended up with 75 IOs and lots of merits. I was happy. Whatever they sell for is profit. 

 

Suspect I got lucky but I am sure I will get even more next year. 

Edited April 4, 2020 by Sakai

[Troyusrex]

On 4/4/2020 at 10:59 AM, Obus Form said:

Anyone have a macro to open the Heroes and Villains, Rogues, or Winter packs?

 

With prices on Winter IOs dropping to 20 million, it is not profitable to even open Winter packs and convert anymore.  The tedium itself is just over the top.

Yes, quite tedious. Almost as bad as turning reward merits to converters and auctioning them.

 

Someone claimed to have a macro, but I can't find it in the forums... But that same post had another worthwhile item:

 

You DON'T need to wait for all the cards to flip to open the next one. You still get all five items, even if only one card has flipped. You can just keep right clicking on the Super Pack and hitting"open" in rapid succession. I do find that every five or so pack I need to let it finish flipping all the cards or weird things happen. I suspect there's a queue that can be overloaded.

 

It's still a pain to open if you have hundreds of super packs, but a lot less of one without having to wait for every card to flip. 

 

 

 

[nihilii]

19 hours ago, Troyusrex said:

I do find that every five or so pack I need to let it finish flipping all the cards or weird things happen. I suspect there's a queue that can be overloaded.

What do you mean by "weird things"? I haven't had that happen, even on hundreds of packs. I rightclick and press O, rightclick and O, about 2 or 3 times per second. I do get that tinge of apprehension/superstition wondering if things will be properly opened, but everything has always shown up in my emails afterwards.

[Gremlin]

I opened 60 yesterday without any problems.

 

For anyone who's curious, I had the "automatically flip cards" option enabled. I closed the card popup window as soon as the first card turned over. I didn't try to open them as fast as possible though.

[Troyusrex]

On 4/6/2020 at 7:23 AM, nihilii said:

What do you mean by "weird things"? I haven't had that happen, even on hundreds of packs. I rightclick and press O, rightclick and O, about 2 or 3 times per second. I do get that tinge of apprehension/superstition wondering if things will be properly opened, but everything has always shown up in my emails afterwards.

Crashed my system once (although it could have been coincidence). Seemed to mess up notification another time where I didn't see everything in the chat, but it looks like I got them in the character items. Made me worried that it was missing items. Probably not, but an expensive lesson if it is and you do this for 100 super packs!

[Gremlin]

I've been messing around with Super Packs over the last week. I opened 480 Hero packs and 300 Rogue packs. I thought I'd chuck my data in here. I combined the numbers from @Troyusrexto mine for the Rogue packs. I didn't do that for the Hero packs because he didn't list the actual number of drops just the averages. I also added in the number of inspirations but they're not very valuable. Not surprisingly, my figures are very similar.

 

FWIW I opened packs in groups of 60. The number of ATOs in each group varied by +- 10% but most other items were much more unpredictable. So much so, that I strongly suspect that 500 packs is not enough to pin down drop rates to 2 decimal places. In fact, I suspect that the two types of packs may well have identical drop rates.

 

	Total Drops		Average Drops Per Super Pack
	Heroes	Rogues	Heroes	Rogues
Packs	480	453	1	1
Unslotter	648	755	1.35	1.67
Catalyst	75	70	0.16	0.15
Converter	809	692	1.69	1.53
Booster	89	93	0.19	0.21
ATOs	586	534	1.22	1.18
Rewards X25	201	191	0.42	0.42
Brain Storm X20	469	463	0.98	1.02
Inspirations	452	310	0.94	1.03

[Gremlin]

I also looked at how likely you are to get 0, 1 or 2 ATOs in a single pack. (You never more than 2.)

 

I suspect that the Hero figures are actually more representative of both types of pack. This is because the Rogue figures looked almost identical until I opened the last batch of 60.

 

	Packs containing x ATOs		Chance of receiving x ATOs
	Heroes	Rogues	Heroes	Rogues
Packs	240	300
0 ATOs	34	56	14%	19%
1 ATO	123	137	51%	46%
2 ATOs	83	107	35%	36%

Edited April 21, 2020 by Gremlin

[Gremlin]

I reckon that the break even point for ATOs is about 5.5 mm each. The current average price is around 7.5 mm.

[Snowdaze]

On 4/4/2020 at 10:59 AM, Obus Form said:

Anyone have a macro to open the Heroes and Villains, Rogues, or Winter packs?

 

With prices on Winter IOs dropping to 20 million, it is not profitable to even open Winter packs and convert anymore.  The tedium itself is just over the top.

if you haven't found it yet I dug it up from elsewhere:

 

(Heroes and Villains):

/salvage_open S_HVSuperPackSalvage

(Rogues and Vigilantes):

/salvage_open S_RVSuperPackSalvage

(Lords of Winter):
/salvage_open S_WinterPackSalvage

Edited April 24, 2020 by Snowdaze
missed an "e"

[Snowdaze]

so if you want a full single mash macro try this (untested but I have some macro experience):

/macro opacks "salvage_open S_HVSuperPackSalvage$$salvage_open S_RVSuperPackSalvage$$salvage_open S_WinterPackSalvage"

 

if someone wants to report back and lemme know if that work for spam opening any given pack, that would be great.

[FrauleinMental]

I've definitely noticed a change in the market on Indomitable since quarantine began.

 

I was selling Catalysts reliably for 3M each, now I'm seeing them around 2.1-2.2M.  I was selling Boosters reliably for 1.5M each, now I'm seeing them around 1.1-1.2M.  I have some sitting in the market, just because I'd already posted them, I don't need them immediately, and I'm trying to wait out the market a bit.

 

I can still sell ATOs for 7.5M, but it tends to take more Converters to get them into favorable forms and even the Brute ATOs are under 10M.

[Caulderone]

4 hours ago, FrauleinMental said:

a change in the market on Indomitable

There is only one market spanning all Shards.

[Gremlin]

10 hours ago, FrauleinMental said:

I was selling Catalysts reliably for 3M each, now I'm seeing them around 2.1-2.2M.  I was selling Boosters reliably for 1.5M each, now I'm seeing them around 1.1-1.2M.

I noticed that as well. It seems to have shifted in the last week or 2. Converters are also at the low end of their range.

 

I haven't noticed anything else that's change in sync with these which suggests that there are more merits being converted into inf for some reason.

[Yomo Kimyata]

I'd chalk that up to people liquidating their supplies of merits.  Supply offered in the converters is now north of 50k when a few weeks ago it would often dwindle to nothing.

 

Normally, I'd see that as people building up cash supplies and using them to buy, but at the same time I'm seeing a lot of what I consider to be staples of IO sets enter the market.  Nothing insane, but an extra 100-200 offered in a bunch of categories. 

 

So overall, it looks like a big cash hoard in process to me.  Heck, it could be just one or two people doing it.

[Gremlin]

If it continues for a few weeks then I'd guess that some people have swapped from farming inf to farming merits.

[Troyusrex]

On 4/24/2020 at 2:55 PM, Snowdaze said:

so if you want a full single mash macro try this (untested but I have some macro experience):

/macro opacks "salvage_open S_HVSuperPackSalvage$$salvage_open S_RVSuperPackSalvage$$salvage_open S_WinterPackSalvage"

 

if someone wants to report back and lemme know if that work for spam opening any given pack, that would be great.

@Snowdaze: This works GREAT for spam opening packs. And I've verified that it will open them as fast as I can click without loss or issue. I've used them with both of the $10M types without issue (even when I have both in inventory).  I've used this to open hundreds at a time. This is a HUGE help. Thank you! 

[Snowdaze]

6 hours ago, Troyusrex said:

@Snowdaze: This works GREAT for spam opening packs. And I've verified that it will open them as fast as I can click without loss or issue. I've used them with both of the $10M types without issue (even when I have both in inventory).  I've used this to open hundreds at a time. This is a HUGE help. Thank you! 

You're welcome, glad It's worked out for you, thanks for being a Market Supplier, I know the super pack life isn't for everyone.

[Troo]

groan.. silly packs

 

 

 

Edited May 23, 2020 by Troo
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