I think the RNG hates me

[Scarlet Shocker]

A couple of days ago I got my first purple recipe drop. (To the best of my recollection) Certainly if it wasn't the first, it's been a very long gap and is remarkable in itself.

 

I joined in May '19 and although I'm recently returned from an hiatus, I have many game hours and it seems strange that rare is so very rare.

 

I've recently been opening the presents scattered around the zones while doing a little bit of badging - I notice that it's a very low percentage that actually say I've been good, regardless of my actual alignment. By far the majority of presents are Snowbeasts - not a disaster in and of itself - I'd estimate that 5 out of every 6 I open say I've been bad - but I don't want this game I love to reflect my real life so closely 🤣

 

Not strictly RNG issues - but I've noticed that the Auction House seems to make far less sense than of old. I have tried to sell at close to recent bids - slightly below, slightly above, depending on the number of bidders vs items for sale. None of it seems to have an effect and my offers and bids languish. Perhaps it's the time of year but I doubt that, because the population seems to be very healthy. I've also experimented with just selling expensive items cheaply and that just results in sadness when something that might go for several million goes for 50,000 inf. It seems the logic of the managed market or the free market do not seem to be applied in a meaningful way that I can grasp.

 

I guess I'm not complaining so much as venting frustrations and I'm a little bit in a bubble - I have few friends on from the past so my experience may be exactly as intended but it doesn't feel like it should be that way. Certainly opening presents should have an incentive even for low level characters - and I face planted frequently enough on sub-lvl 5 toons to know to leave presents alone; a disincentive.

 

I do get plenty of recipes, commons, uncommons and rares - so there's clearly no issue with stuff actually dropping. I get good VMerits and I have no issue with Inarnate Shards.

 

Am I alone in my experience or has some RNGod pointed a bony finger at me and said "Scarlet cannot be purple"?

 

 

[JasperStone]

Not alone at all.

I have raised a similar question in the past.

How does the drop algorithm work?

 

I run similar content across all my characters.

Two stood out as I ran them to 50.

One was teeming with recipes. Lots of common and uncommon recipes(sets). Two rare recipes(purple sets) a week

The other, having run the same content and at 50 too, had two recipes(sets). Two. Total.

 

I have a farming-type character.

Consistently got one to two purple drops run.

This is not farm bashing, so don't.

 

Also, my characters are consistently naught ... hmmmmm

[Clave Dark 5]

I don't run tons of 50-only content, so I tend to get a purp maybe once a quarter or so?  That said, I've had two in the past week and a half - a real rarity for me!  Then again, I didn't get one during the Halloween event which used to be a given for me.  So that fat guy in the red suit owed me!

[Snarky]

Running a LOT of 50 content brings big rewards.  Having a bad week?  There will be a good week down the line.  WEEK.  Not hour, not day.  If you are talking about a LOT of 50 content you are talking 20+ hours (or 30..40...) and yes there can be dry stretches.  But even during the dry stretches you are picking up merits, emp merits, Hami-Os, and raw inf.  Grind baby grind!

[lemming]

The more you look at the RNG, the more it punishes you.

 

The more sample sizes taken show the RNG is actually random, but it seems to settle on streaks.  I do run with logs being saved, so I could probably run some sort of analysis, but not sure if I want to delve into that.   Might be more sanity blasting than I want to get into this early in the year

[momentarygrace]

But you aren't alone! Between live and HC, I have gotten 1 purple drop, period.

 

I had 1 50 for live until close to the end, then 2. One on HC until Halloween, now 2. I play my primary, but I'm an altaholic, so I also play the many randos I am inspired to create. Probably I don't play enough 50 content to get purps. Maybe? But I haven't seen them.

 

I tend to not worry about it much. I'm also one of those according-to-the-forum nonexistent players who doesn't have billions, but I'm okay with that, I market a tiny bit but mostly it occurs to me as too much like work and I'm here for fun. But I am amused at all the absolute statements I see that all HC players have plenty of inf. I probably could have it if I did what others suggest but... nah. So I'm not complaining... just amused.

 

[MoonSheep]

RNGesus give’th and take’th, do not question his ways 🙏📿

[Luminara]

I don't know of any games which use a true random number generator, all of them, including this one, use a pseudo-random number generator.  PRNGs only give the appearance of randomness.  It's more accurate to call them number generators with somewhat randomized results, than random number generators.  They create results which are statistically random, but not truly random.  In large samples, PRNGs display deterministic outputs.  Meaning, patterns.

 

 

In this image, you see true random number generation plotted as points on the left.  On the right, an image generated with results from a PRNG.

 

This is how Co*'s RNG works.  This is why it streaks.  The streak breaker addresses a single aspect of the pseudo-randomness, forcing hits after X rolls at Y hit chance, but it doesn't address things like drops, or non-sequential deterministic results (such as having an attack miss, continuing to cycle through your attack chain, and having the same attack miss again when you return to it, and that sequence repeating on the third cycle, the fourth, et fucking cetera (yeah, that shit really does get under my skin)).

 

I don't know if it's due to the narrow output range (00.00 - 100.00), or the seed itself, but streakiness in this game is definitely "a thing", and it's not limited to hit rolls.  So yes, your drops can be terrible, or incredible, and then suddenly turn around, because you're on or off of a streak.

[roleki]

My dedicated farmers rarely get purple drops; doorsitters seem to get them like crazy.  I run my 50s through Council farms to get catalysts real quick, and I get most of my purple drops that way. 

[Glacier Peak]

I'm probably in the 200s range for purple drops since July 2019. Combination of soloing all content blue, red, gold, 1500+ badges on my main and rocking through hundreds of veteran levels on my farming characters. 

[WumpusRat]

The RNG definitely has it in for me some nights. I think in all the time I've been playing I've gotten maybe 8-10 purple drops, outside of the "free" first-time-50 one from Market Crash.

 

On the other hand, my converter luck is pretty good. I've gotten countless LotG globals, Numinas, Miracles, and other uniques in just a few conversions.

 

And then the combat rng decides to laugh at me sometimes, like last night when my defender was up against Anti-Matter, and he hit me every other attack despite only having a 10% chance.

[TalynDerre]

It definitely seems like some of my toons are 'luckier' than others.  My Tanker Leading Lady and my Sentinel Unity Black Tango, in particular, end up just dripping with purple recipes and very rare Incarnate Salvage and Enhancement Catalysts and whatever.  Other level 50s seem to get these rare drops rarely or at all.

 

Maybe some sort of weird hiccup in the loot algorithm?  Or maybe it's just observational bias.

[Snarky]

On 1/1/2023 at 4:29 AM, Scarlet Shocker said:

 

 

Am I alone in my experience or has some RNGod pointed a bony finger at me and said "Scarlet cannot be purple"?

 

 

I have done some research. I talked to some contacts about you.  Ran their missions to find out about this RNGod. I even did a Strike Force where at the end we fought the bony fingered devil.  
 

Turns out you were right.   They really hate you.  They have a weird little altar with Scarlet Shocker written on it and everything.  Sorry man.  Reroll?

[Scarlet Shocker]

Dude, srsly. It's a badge of honour.

 

I've been hated by many worse people in many different lives. I think I'll tough this one out! 🤣

[Snarky]

On 1/1/2023 at 1:07 PM, Luminara said:

I don't know of any games which use a true random number generator, all of them, including this one, use a pseudo-random number generator.  PRNGs only give the appearance of randomness.  It's more accurate to call them number generators with somewhat randomized results, than random number generators.  They create results which are statistically random, but not truly random.  In large samples, PRNGs display deterministic outputs.  Meaning, patterns.

 

 

In this image, you see true random number generation plotted as points on the left.  On the right, an image generated with results from a PRNG.

 

This is how Co*'s RNG works.  This is why it streaks.  The streak breaker addresses a single aspect of the pseudo-randomness, forcing hits after X rolls at Y hit chance, but it doesn't address things like drops, or non-sequential deterministic results (such as having an attack miss, continuing to cycle through your attack chain, and having the same attack miss again when you return to it, and that sequence repeating on the third cycle, the fourth, et fucking cetera (yeah, that shit really does get under my skin)).

 

I don't know if it's due to the narrow output range (00.00 - 100.00), or the seed itself, but streakiness in this game is definitely "a thing", and it's not limited to hit rolls.  So yes, your drops can be terrible, or incredible, and then suddenly turn around, because you're on or off of a streak.

THe one on the left looks like a Jackson Pollock.  I even think I see a cigarette butt.  The one on the right looks like 80s wallpaper print.

[Luminara]

 

5 minutes ago, Snarky said:

THe one on the left looks like a Jackson Pollock.  I even think I see a cigarette butt.

 

It's Co*.  There's always a butt.

[gameboy1234]

On 1/1/2023 at 1:07 PM, Luminara said:

In this image, you see true random number generation plotted as points on the left.  On the right, an image generated with results from a PRNG.

 

I hope that image on the right is something made up to look as bad as possible.  Almost anyone could come up with a better PRNG than that.  Check out the Wikipedia article on PRNGs.  Well, it looks like they changed the article a bit, the XOR-SHIFT algorithm is easy and works well.  (There used to be a list of popular PRNG algorithms on that page.)

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xorshift

 

Honestly if CoX is using some terrible ancient PRNG, they should just copy paste some code from Wikipedia and fix it.

[tidge]

My personal experiences with RNG, as it relates to drops, follows. This is based on playing established in-game content and not farming, although the results are similar for farming (in my limited experience doing that).

 

To get a "drop", you can't be defeating "con grey" enemies... basically if you are not getting XP, you don't stand a chance of getting a drop. (I think this is also true of 'event spawns', such as frost minions in low level zones that con grey to a character, I can't say I recall getting candy canes from defeating grey snowmen). Fighting higher con enemies doesn't improve the drop rate. You need to fight a lot of enemies to stand a chance at the rarest drops. You ought to be playing level 50 content to get Purple drops (they will drop earlier, but your are going to get XP along the way, so I'm not going to belabor this subtle point).

 

Any amount of damage done to an enemy will offer you a chance to get a drop. I mention this because it is the #1 reason to slot both %damage procs in an AoE confuse attack.

 

For a long while, I was running characters through the Dark Astoria arcs at +0x8... all the enemies give XP (no matter the Incarnate shift) and I could run two full arcs (8 missions total) in less than an hour, defeating every mob. Doing these 8 missions would, on average, yield either a single Purple or PVP recipe. Occasionally I'd go long stretches with only one or the other, occasionally I'd have runs that would take longer to drop one.

 

Now... a couple of other points that I apply to myself.

1. When I am hoping for a Purple or PVP drop, I almost always use P2W to "turn off" rare recipes; they require rare salvage and so are not worth the effort to collect and craft. I can take-or-leave uncommons. Commons never get turned off, as they vendor at a high price.
2. Prismatic Aethers only drop at the completion of missions, so if a player would rather try to farm those, then "kill all" sort-of gets in the way of trying to "farm" those. I quite like that there is a random reward for mission speeding to compliment the random reward of "defeat all". This is on my mind when trying to collect Empyrian Merits and Incarnate salvage that are also only rewarded upon "completion".

[DoctorHugh]

Agree with Tidge and others, it's a numbers game. If your chars are chewing through vast numbers of foes and missions your RNG will trend towards the average. (Assuming you're doing things that actually generate the drops you're paying attention to.)

 

If I felt I was getting odd RNG results, I'd check to see the results of other people engaging in similar activity. In some games, I've got characters swimming in loot, and other characters destitute. Lo and behold, when I check their histories, the destitute ones are the ones that help in help chat, show teammates how to complete missions, wander through zones looking for easter eggs, and do stuff "for the lols". They're also the ones that have less "action" time and more "waiting for the rest of the group to be ready" time.

 

The ones with overflowing inv bags are the ones I've pumped some resources into and they chew through content for hours at a run, complete the hard tasks, join ready-to-go alliance raids, etc. 

 

Where, what and how you're playing your character can explain a lot of the difference between two sets of results. But in the end, it's mostly just about which char has generated 500 random rolls vs. which char has generated 15,000.

[ZemX]

On 1/1/2023 at 3:07 PM, Luminara said:

This is how Co*'s RNG works.  This is why it streaks. 

 

Even if it's as bad as this picture... isn't this a picture of what the whole server (or at least a large grouping of players) would see, collectively?  Does the CoH RNG really show this kind of pattern to a single player?  Ever?

 

I always figured streakbreaker was more about public relations and human perception than actual mathematical necessity.  Even a TRNG could give us a streak of misses we wouldn't want to accept.

[aethereal]

On 1/6/2023 at 9:17 PM, gameboy1234 said:

Honestly if CoX is using some terrible ancient PRNG, they should just copy paste some code from Wikipedia and fix it.

 

CoH gets its random numbers with a system call to the O/S nonsecure random number generator.

 

People's fantasies of persecution by the RNG are entirely in their own minds.

[Doc_Scorpion]

3 hours ago, aethereal said:

People's fantasies of persecution by the RNG are entirely in their own minds.

While I wouldn't go so far as to say "persecution"...  Yah.  People see the pattern they want to see.  (And most don't understand random or probabilities in the first place - casinos make big bucks off of that lack.)

[Andreah]

On 1/6/2023 at 11:17 PM, gameboy1234 said:

 

I hope that image on the right is something made up to look as bad as possible.  Almost anyone could come up with a better PRNG than that.  Check out the Wikipedia article on PRNGs.  Well, it looks like they changed the article a bit, the XOR-SHIFT algorithm is easy and works well.  (There used to be a list of popular PRNG algorithms on that page.)

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xorshift

 

Honestly if CoX is using some terrible ancient PRNG, they should just copy paste some code from Wikipedia and fix it.

I concur. RNG's in common use haven't been that bad since the 1980's. When operated correctly most good modern PRNG's are indistinguishable from truly random hardware RNG's to any statistical test a lay person could devise, and it's difficult to find problems in them even 

 

The source code to CoH is out there -- I'd like to see one of the folks who're concerned about the generator in the game to look up which it uses for combat/drops and see if there's known deficiencies in it. 

[Snarky]

33 minutes ago, Andreah said:

The source code to CoH is out there -- I'd like to see one of the folks who're concerned about the generator in the game to look up which it uses for combat/drops and see if there's known deficiencies in it. 

do not look

[Erratic1]

I just successfully manage to fill the last recipe slot on my veteran level 24 sentinel with a non-basic, crafted recipe. He has not run Market Crash. The routine has been to clear out basic recipes whenever his 80 slots were filled. Mind you, I have not actually kept every non-basic recipe. I tend to go through the recipes and sell the ones which low sell prices and which I know I have no build across my hundred or so characters would use. How many cheapie, non-basic recipes has he sold? No idea. I would guess probably no more than 40.

 

He has not a single purple recipe.

 

Effectively he has had 120 slots to fill and has only kept set recipe drops. If what I am reading is correct purples drop at a 2.4% rate? So on average one might have expected 2.8 purple drops?  Or turning this around, there was a 97.6% chance of not getting a purple drop, so the odds of no purples at all in 120 tries would be 1-0.976^120=5.4%

 

I think it is fair to call that unlucky.

 

Of course I have other level 50s. My "flagship" character has 3 purples. Take out that he has done Market Crash and he's roughly at the expected number.

 

Hmmm...not sure I want to trawl through all my 50s and try to remember who has MC'd and who has not.