Impact on Markets from 27:4

[Sakai]

On 7/14/2022 at 3:28 PM, Yomo Kimyata said:

Also, with this:

 

• All enemy classes have inherent magnitude 10 Confuse protection.

I'm selling, Selling, SELLING CONFUSE!!!

 

And I'm putting a hold on making my Psi Melee/Ninjitsu scrapper with double confuse/boggle.

Huh. My Psi/Dark scrapper is a fun challenge now...that will add an additional layer. Love Boggle...such a great control element. 

[tidge]

While I appreciate that y'all are looking for new niches... IMO a new Issue/Page simply means that more new characters will be made, a few older characters will be respec-ed, and it means that sales will increase on all the old favorites.

 

If I wanted to try to predict an impact from AE changes, I would consider the potential impact for less AE farming to have on supplying raw materials to the Auction House. I'm well aware of the (quite right, IMO) theory of worrying about inflationary pressure from Inf farming, but it is hard for me to gauge the impact of past AE changes... especially since I never AE farmed for influence; I did occasionally use AE farms for drops, years ago.

 

The post-Incarnate Vet Levels XP (to me) falls into the category of things that I simply didn't know were a thing that people really cared about. I'm just as surprised to find out that anybody really cares that some folks are leveraging it.

[Yomo Kimyata]

I would have expected convert prices to be going up, as people realize that they will be in lower supply in the future, but nope, they are on sale right now!

[Sovera]

Market Crash's first mission. All Freaks, no Super Stunners. Mostly Smash or Slash with only a scattering of electricity from the lieutenants.

 

Anything could handle it.

[UltraAlt]

21 hours ago, Yomo Kimyata said:

I would have expected convert prices to be going up, as people realize that they will be in lower supply in the future, but nope, they are on sale right now!

 

[Troo]

22 hours ago, Yomo Kimyata said:

I would have expected convert prices to be going up, as people realize that they will be in lower supply in the future, but nope, they are on sale right now!

 

incorrect speculation based on incomplete information can lead to inadequate assumptions..

merits are the great equalizer

[Ukase]

As I've shared in this forum section before (pretty sure I have), I am one who farms for emp merits via vet level bonuses. One of the perks of vet levels, regardless of how you get them is the amassing of incarnate threads. Obviously, threads are not transferrable. The only thing to do with surplus threads once you've made all the incarnate pieces you like are super inspirations. 

So, historically, I've gotten all my supers from my solo SG base, stashed by my farmers. I tend to visit Luna when the thread count is around 8-9k, lest I forget how high they are and get capped without realizing it. 

If you haven't tried your afk-farmer on test yet, you might want to do so. There are subtle differences in how much damage your brute may be able to handle. Some of your builds will be okay in Briggs. Some of your builds will die within the first couple of minutes. It just depends on your build. 

Still, since it seems we won't be awarded vet levels and such, one has to decide if continuing to afk farm without those is worth it. We'll still get those incarnate threads that drop from kills randomly, and they do add up after a time. 

So, the big question is, will the drop in afk farming (if folks don't figure out a work-around that's not a glitch, exploit or some "unfair" advantage) impact those super inspirations? 
On one hand, I'd say no; most of the newer "hard mode" content disallows the use of Supers, so who's going to want them? 

Anecdotally, I know Cosmic Council on Excelsior still hosts runs of Really Hard Way weekly on Saturday nights. On Everlasting, @Sundew will also host a run on Everlasting. Odds are that these are run on the other servers as well, though I'm not sure how often or when. At a minimum, there's a couple of leagues worth of demand per week that I know of. But even those are often subsidized by players who have afk farmers who donate those inspirations. 

But, if the AFK-ers drop their generation of these threads, it stands to reason that the supply of these inspirations will drop. And when that happens, odds are the price will go up. 
Obviously, opinions will vary, and I could have it completely wrong. It may be that just the sheer drop of players from the game just on principal may reduce demand so much that you won't be able to give them away (Yes, I said Dooooooooooooom! It's a bit tongue-in-cheek; I've no idea how the player base as a whole will handle these changes). 

Either way, something to think about. 

[Bionic_Flea]

If AE farming for Vet level rewards goes away, those that do it will either move to a different kind of farm or stop playing.  It depends on how many of each of those two groups there are.  One will keep generating those rewards, just slower.  The other will eliminate one source of the supply chain altogether.

 

[Ukase]

So, the powers that be seem to have altered their course a bit. It seems they're going with additional rewards for completing iTrials. I can only presume this is an effort to incentivize iTrials with a bit more payoff. 

 

 

So, I can no longer cry dooooooom, lol. 
And, I'm so thankful. I was getting weary of panic emp-farming. Instead, I had to panic emp-reward merit convert on my farm account. The other accounts will keep them for incarnate materials. 

 

[Yomo Kimyata]

21 hours ago, Troo said:

 

incorrect speculation based on incomplete information can lead to inadequate assumptions..

merits are the great equalizer

 

And today I see that it's due to insider trading!

[Troo]

3 minutes ago, Yomo Kimyata said:

 

And today I see that it's due to insider trading!

 

even the blind squirrel finds a nut and all that.. just a feeling.

[Andreah]

Ooh! Ooh! Do common salvage next! :D

[Without_Pause]

I've been taking a break from the game. I do recall during the last Page update the market was active and prices went up. I have started to occasionally log on to work on day job badges and do some marketing. Looks like by all accounts prices are cheaper than ever and even the LotG: +Recharge is capping at 6 mill, which 7 was an easy sell before. I went and looked at player numbers and in all honestly there doesn't look to be much of any upswing in people playing despite the new Page coming out.

[Ukase]

Well...I never kept tabs on the numbers, but if you take into account that a number of AFK farmers who don't read the forums, suddenly discovered their builds were insufficient to handle the new aggro changes, perhaps some of those numbers are playing, and not in the farm - at least until the new page 4 adapted builds make their way into the forums. 

I just finished one, for rad/fire, and spines/fire. I like the spines/fire better. Yeah, I know irradiated ground is supposed to give the rad/fire a slight edge, but I like spines better, so sue me. 

As for the aforementioned LotG, I was honestly expecting the price to go back to 7M, but it's stayed at 6m for the most part. That did surprise me. 

[Nostromo21]

From a casual carebear pov, all I know is, there used to be 100s of cheap melee recipes which I could convert with new toons to make a few small million inf, just to get a head start with SOs for the first 20-30 levels or so. Now, there are single digit amounts and they are asking up to 100K for the recipes, when they used to go for 5-10K. Bleh. I guess like most ppl here (and one said it explicitly), the game is only meant for/aimed at hardcore players with multiple 50s. I'm yet to get one toon to 50, as I much prefer progression to end game, and also due to my rampant OCD alt-o-holism, he he. So, I can't run all those 50+ missions/zones/raids to get heaps of merits or inf, other than playing the AH early conversion game.

Any advice on how to work around this market blowout much appreciated. If there are whales creating a monopoly stranglehold on the market, I would hope that the HC admins would do something about it - supply & demand free market economics don't work in mmo virtual markets for very long before something breaks.

[Ironblade]

I have seen several people express the opinion that the current market conditions are anomalous and are caused by people moving away from AE farming to Trick or Treat farming - which drops hardly any salvage or recipes but can quickly get you 10 Prismatic Aether.

 

If their conclusions are accurate, wait about two weeks and things should start moving back toward 'normal'.

[MoonSheep]

7 hours ago, Nostromo21 said:

From a casual carebear pov, all I know is, there used to be 100s of cheap melee recipes which I could convert with new toons to make a few small million inf, just to get a head start with SOs for the first 20-30 levels or so. Now, there are single digit amounts and they are asking up to 100K for the recipes, when they used to go for 5-10K. Bleh. I guess like most ppl here (and one said it explicitly), the game is only meant for/aimed at hardcore players with multiple 50s. I'm yet to get one toon to 50, as I much prefer progression to end game, and also due to my rampant OCD alt-o-holism, he he. So, I can't run all those 50+ missions/zones/raids to get heaps of merits or inf, other than playing the AH early conversion game.

Any advice on how to work around this market blowout much appreciated. If there are whales creating a monopoly stranglehold on the market, I would hope that the HC admins would do something about it - supply & demand free market economics don't work in mmo virtual markets for very long before something breaks.

 

sell rare salvage that drops on the AH, you’ll get 400-500k per one and will be able to buy plenty of recipes

 

sticking to uncommon (yellow) recipes will give you more bang for your buck if you’re wanting to slot IOs before lvl 50 as they tend to not require rare salvage

[Bionic_Flea]

11 hours ago, Nostromo21 said:

Any advice on how to work around this market blowout much appreciated.

 

1) Play story arcs & TFs, get exploration badges, and answer any calls to kill a giant monster.  All these things will reward you with merits.

 

2)  Sell your common (white) recipes to a vendor.

 

3)  Craft every yellow and orange recipe drop that you also got the salvage dropped for free.  This is especially true for leveling characters as there are some desirable IOs that do not drop at 50 and every level down from 50 results in a significant reduction in crafting costs.

 

4)  Use the merits you earned to buy converters.  Convert the IOs you created into something that you need for your build or that sells for 1.5 million or more.

 

5) Repeat steps 1 - 4.

 

6) If and when you are full of recipes that you lack the salvage for take stock of what you need to craft them and put in low ball bids for the salvage.

 

Congratulations!  You are now a billionaire.

[Zect]

On 10/23/2022 at 8:07 AM, Nostromo21 said:

From a casual carebear pov, all I know is, there used to be 100s of cheap melee recipes which I could convert with new toons to make a few small million inf, just to get a head start with SOs for the first 20-30 levels or so. Now, there are single digit amounts and they are asking up to 100K for the recipes, when they used to go for 5-10K. Bleh. I guess like most ppl here (and one said it explicitly), the game is only meant for/aimed at hardcore players with multiple 50s. I'm yet to get one toon to 50, as I much prefer progression to end game, and also due to my rampant OCD alt-o-holism, he he. So, I can't run all those 50+ missions/zones/raids to get heaps of merits or inf, other than playing the AH early conversion game.

Any advice on how to work around this market blowout much appreciated. If there are whales creating a monopoly stranglehold on the market, I would hope that the HC admins would do something about it - supply & demand free market economics don't work in mmo virtual markets for very long before something breaks.

 

There are still a lot of cheap 5-10k recipes to convert (or even sell directly) - you just need to expand your horizons a little.

 

I don't know why people here are telling you to play story arcs and TFs. That's a common noob trap. Merit rewards, regardless of source, are based on a formula of 20 merits/h (though some content, like Tinpex, ignores the formula). With i25/Homecoming power creep, it's closer to 50/h, or 10 M inf/h at current market rates. That's peanuts, and you have to deal with diminishing returns.

 

The top sources of income in this game are, in descending order, 1) marketeering, 2) AE farming and 3) hardmode content (though with a decent team, and I mean sub-hour 4* ITF decent, #3 can overtake #2). I suggest getting the highest-leveled character you have to 40, doing Market Crash, crafting and selling the purple you get for capital. That should enable you to marketeer more effectively.

 

Be wary of blindly following advice from this forum. If you look at the predictions given in this thread for the effects of i24 on the market, nearly all have been proven wrong.

Edited October 25, 2022 by Zect

[Bionic_Flea]

Funny.  Following my own noob advice I have more billions than I can spend and on average I make a fully kitted out level 50 every month.  If I wanted to make a new kitted out 50 everyday I might need to change tactics.

 

That said, I also run some hardmode and some farms and I do sell stuff on the market.

[lemming]

4 hours ago, Bionic_Flea said:

Funny.  Following my own noob advice I have more billions than I can spend and on average I make a fully kitted out level 50 every month.  If I wanted to make a new kitted out 50 everyday I might need to change tactics.

 

That said, I also run some hardmode and some farms and I do sell stuff on the market.

Yea, I do very similar, though with my altitis I wind up with a lot of low level recipes that are cheap to craft, convert, and sell at good profit.

[Ironblade]

9 hours ago, Zect said:

I don't know why people here are telling you to play story arcs and TFs. That's a common noob trap. Merit rewards, regardless of source, are based on a formula of 20 merits/h (though some content, like Tinpex, ignores the formula). With i25/Homecoming power creep, it's closer to 50/h, or 10 M inf/h at current market rates. That's peanuts, and you have to deal with diminishing returns.

Some people (myself included) find running task forces to be more FUN.  This is a game, so fun is my primary metric.  Of course, I can have fun efficiently.  Occasionally, when the Dr Q TF is the weekly, I'll solo it - with 3 accounts logged in.  So that's 744 merits for me.

Also, diminishing returns is not relevant unless you only have 1 or 2 characters.

 

I'll certainly agree with you that task forces are not the best way to earn inf; not even close.

Some people farm for fun and relaxation, and some people hate farming.

Some people enjoy marketeering and some hate it and/or can't be bothered to learn it.

Task forces are an OPTION.

 

Personally: I find farming boring; I enjoy marketeering (and that's where a lot of my inf comes from); I enjoy running task forces (and have over 40,000 rewards merits lying around).

[Perfidy]

On 10/22/2022 at 7:07 PM, Nostromo21 said:

From a casual carebear pov, all I know is, there used to be 100s of cheap melee recipes which I could convert with new toons to make a few small million inf, just to get a head start with SOs for the first 20-30 levels or so. Now, there are single digit amounts and they are asking up to 100K for the recipes, when they used to go for 5-10K. Bleh. I guess like most ppl here (and one said it explicitly), the game is only meant for/aimed at hardcore players with multiple 50s. I'm yet to get one toon to 50, as I much prefer progression to end game, and also due to my rampant OCD alt-o-holism, he he. So, I can't run all those 50+ missions/zones/raids to get heaps of merits or inf, other than playing the AH early conversion game.

Any advice on how to work around this market blowout much appreciated. If there are whales creating a monopoly stranglehold on the market, I would hope that the HC admins would do something about it - supply & demand free market economics don't work in mmo virtual markets for very long before something breaks.

I cannot speak for what others do, but there are a few ways to mitigate the high prices in the AH. 
This is what I did. I made multiple level 1 characters. I parked them in various day job badges that give temporary buffs to key areas.
Example: Brain storm ideas are tedious to gain running missions. It's just ridiculous to try and use those for anything, because the buff isn't long enough to get you more than maybe 20 to 30 on your journey to 50, unless you are a real alt-aholic. 
But, the chronologist badge in Ouro, for recipes, the professor job by logging off in the university, or whatever it's called for logging off in the midnighter club, both of those latter two give a rare salvage upon mission completion. 

There are two of the whispered rumor tips that will give a level appropriate random rare (one tech, the other arcane) for two free drops. 

You could try AE tickets if you need a specific one, (And level 50 with the spare threads), but even then the inspirations from Luna would probably make that a bad deal the exchange is so bad. 

I'm sure most folks with the deep pockets just pay the 800k or whatevs for the rare salvage and absorb the increase. Over time, it probably adds up, but once you're at a billion or so, who cares? 

[Zect]

On 10/26/2022 at 7:07 AM, Ironblade said:

Some people (myself included) find running task forces to be more FUN.  This is a game, so fun is my primary metric.  Of course, I can have fun efficiently.  Occasionally, when the Dr Q TF is the weekly, I'll solo it - with 3 accounts logged in.  So that's 744 merits for me.

Also, diminishing returns is not relevant unless you only have 1 or 2 characters.

 

I'll certainly agree with you that task forces are not the best way to earn inf; not even close.

Some people farm for fun and relaxation, and some people hate farming.

Some people enjoy marketeering and some hate it and/or can't be bothered to learn it.

Task forces are an OPTION.

 

Personally: I find farming boring; I enjoy marketeering (and that's where a lot of my inf comes from); I enjoy running task forces (and have over 40,000 rewards merits lying around).

 

Oh, don't get me wrong - fully agreed on that. Without humblebragging, let's just say that I also do a variety of things that don't pay anywhere near what I consider a decent wage, just for fun.

 

(Though, devs, does there have to be such a distinction? Why can't the content that's fun also be lucrative? Making money is fun, too, and enhances the fun of anything that gives it. I want to make a modest 50 million/hr street sweeping in Perez with my petless MM, roleplaying a domme who's whipping wayward youth into shape. Surely that's not all that much easier than sleepwalking through yet another Hami, or logging in my alt accounts to park in AE with burn on auto? Why do I even need alt accounts? Homecoming team, please? Anyway...)

 

My advice was in the context of the post I was replying to, and their playstyle has some limitations that make TFs and/or farming less efficient than usual. Specifically, no 50's and a preference for levelling over endgame, so no tinpex nor hami, a restricted WST selection, most likely little ability to solo TF's, and not killing level 50 mobs means no purple drops which puts a dampener on most varieties of farming. So if the TF's and storyarcs they've been doing haven't provided the necessary income, my suggestion is to marketeer more. If it's not possible to have fun efficiently, the next-best plan may be to do the really unfun but efficient nonsense for a bit, so you can return to having fun with a full wallet ASAP. Now back to my BDSM RP I go.

Edited October 28, 2022 by Zect

[brasilgringo]

One thing I'm wondering about is the declining price on once-high-value purples like Hecatomb, Apocalypse and Armageddon -- all of which have dropped, seemingly, into the 14-15MM range (maybe 16MM) in recent weeks.  Just oversupply?  Less demand?  Armageddon used to reguarly fetch 17MM+.  

 

The same oversupply vs. demand seems to be going on in Reactive Defense and Numinas and even Unbreakable Guard, as well as various once-higher PVP IO.