Winter Pack strategy

[Troo]

5 hours ago, Ukase said:

Still, I think every 15M pack on average will be worth over 30M, easily, in the long run. A tedious run, but profitable. 

 

... 30M could be more hopefully than actual.

There will be relatively no upward trend on the individual rewards provided by the packs. (expect increased packs purchases to actually depress prices)

as long as you don't need the capital elsewhere you could break even sometime late next summer. 

[Ukase]

11 minutes ago, Troo said:

 

... 30M could be more hopefully than actual.

There will be relatively no upward trend on the individual rewards provided by the packs. (expect increased packs purchases to actually depress prices)

as long as you don't need the capital elsewhere you could break even sometime late next summer. 

No; I'm quite confident a Superior Winter-O will be selling for about 27M on average beginning next September. Granted, I won't be the only player in this area, but I wasn't the only player in this area this year, either. I still made over 25-30M per Superior Winter-O. Like, on every single one that I listed. Sold about 20 a day from October until the last week of November. And if not...no worries. Plenty more where that came from. 

[0th Power]

I spent a measly 750 mil on packs yesterday.  Gonna hold on to them for a bit and see what the market does.

[Coyotedancer]

I'm debating how much I really want to drop on the things this year,,,

I don't marketeer with them. I keep anything they drop. But I also rarely end up using the enhancements on anything but a fire farmer (and I have no plans to make another one of those-). Merits and such? Yeah. Those are useful. The Os? They just sit there in the bin.

 

It just seems like there ought to be better uses for the INF.

[Black_Assassin]

6 minutes ago, Coyotedancer said:

I'm debating how much I really want to drop on the things this year,,,

I don't marketeer with them. I keep anything they drop. But I also rarely end up using the enhancements on anything but a fire farmer (and I have no plans to make another one of those-). Merits and such? Yeah. Those are useful. The Os? They just sit there in the bin.

 

It just seems like there ought to be better uses for the INF.

 

 

I get that, I still have 400-500 WIOs in a base from last years purchase. I would only purchase purely to flip for easy profit or open all up and take the long route of catalyse and sell. I have yet to decide what I am going to do.

[Yomo Kimyata]

I'm going to wait until towards the end of the event before I decide what to do.  I'm already making inf hand over fist, but that's hardly the point any more.

[Ukase]

11 hours ago, Yomo Kimyata said:

I'm going to wait until towards the end of the event before I decide what to do.  I'm already making inf hand over fist, but that's hardly the point any more.

If you wait too long, I will buy them all! Just kidding. Did the math, and I would need like 100 trillion inf. Just not there yet, lol. Or whatever 10M *15,000,000 is. Something with a lot of damn zeroes. 14, I think. Not enough fingers and toes to get it accurately. 

 

[0th Power]

On 12/10/2021 at 7:39 AM, Ukase said:

If you wait too long, I will buy them all! Just kidding. Did the math, and I would need like 100 trillion inf. Just not there yet, lol. Or whatever 10M *15,000,000 is. Something with a lot of damn zeroes. 14, I think. Not enough fingers and toes to get it accurately. 

 

Scientific notation might serve you well

[Ukase]

52 minutes ago, 0th Power said:

Scientific notation might serve you well

It would. But it's not notation I use daily. So, when I see 1.5e+14, is there really any information conveyed to the average reader? Not likely. 150,000,000,000,000 probably gives the meaning far more clearly than Scientific Notation. 

And, well, candidly, I don't think in Scientific notation. I think in numbers. So, it's 15 followed by a lot of damn zeroes. 

[Without_Pause]

On 12/7/2021 at 3:10 PM, Without_Pause said:

I dump currency into builds versus currency sitting around, so I consolidated currency from my main and a couple 50s I have been playing and bought 39. Might just wait for the market to go back to normal and resell them later on.

Kept bumping my goal until I thought 100 was maybe too high. I went all in in terms of crafting what I could and selling purples that I had stored away "just in case" although I think some where low on the to actually be used list, or it would be some time before they were. I should cakewalk 100 this weekend. Honestly not sure where to go from there. Not sure I care enough to try and get something like 125. I might just stop at 100, and get back to refilling. I already have 5 builds done. The fact that I can grab 100 Winter Packs makes me think I'm good with not needing to get 100 Winter Packs during a sale as what I have been doing works fine. I added a couple recipes for more diversity and better return so I'm actually in a better position now outside of the 100 Winter Packs.

[Obus Form]

After 1/2 year hiatus, logged in and bought 1200 winter packs.  Would appreciate it if everyone would kindly sell theirs off before prices return to 25kk.

[Ukase]

On 12/9/2021 at 11:10 AM, Coyotedancer said:

I'm debating how much I really want to drop on the things this year,,,

I don't marketeer with them. I keep anything they drop. But I also rarely end up using the enhancements on anything but a fire farmer (and I have no plans to make another one of those-). Merits and such? Yeah. Those are useful. The Os? They just sit there in the bin.

 

It just seems like there ought to be better uses for the INF.

There are better uses for the influence. The question is more, "how much time are you willing to spend on it?". 

The way I see it, if you have enough inf to fund your next alt, do you really need to sweat farming or marketing? 

A farmer can generate just from the defeats and selling the commons & enhancements enough in a day or so to fund an alt - depending on the build, of course. An AFK farmer may not make as much as an active one, but if you have two accounts - play on one, afk the other, there's really no "need" for the packs. But the temps & other goodies outside of the enhancements can come in handy. It's just a question of how much time do you want to spend clicking and opening, and if you're driven like some of us to accumulate big stacks of inf for whatever reasons you may have. 

 

If you've no issue with clicking, the winter packs on sale, well....they're essentially free inf - if you can afford to buy enough to make the average work for you. Some packs have zero Winter-Os. Some have two, some only have one. On average, you get 1.2 per pack. 

Selling each one for 10-11M (seemed to be the "instant" sale two days ago) you make about 10M every 10 packs just from the winters. And the reward merits, converters, brain storm ideas, boosters...all those add up. 

And, of course, patience can make these add up even more. Like...say next year, since they're not likely to go on sale again. Like ever. Your farmer will accumulate catalysts over time, so those are essentially just an opportunity cost if you use them to make the winters you get superior. 

Slot them, catalyze, unslot them, sell. The 15M  you paid per pack will then offer you approx. 15-21M per pack on average, just for the winters. 

To me, even if it takes TWO years for all the big players in this niche to get through their inventory and for prices to normalize to pre-sale prices, you can make quite a profit. 
But, if such plotting and planning sucks the fun out of the game, there's no point in it, really. 

[Nafsmar]

Ok I gave in. I bought 250 packs(I'm a small fry). Now the waiting game begins. 

[Coyotedancer]

I ended up buying a modest number, just to finish filling one of our enhancement bins and to have a few left over to keep around for bet-hedging's sake. 

[Ukase]

After consulting with a marketing peer, I think I'm going to sink a tremendous stack of inf, beyond the 2k I've already purchased. I've only opened a couple hundred of them so far. But, I'm making the assumption that these packs being on sale don't really help the little guy, the player with a smaller stack of influence. Sure, they can maybe get a few packs more than otherwise, but: 

If they just wanted cheaper ATOs & goodies within the packs and aren't concerned with the marketing aspect, they can only buy about ..40% more than they could before. I don't know the precise math, don't care to tabulate it. 

If they are thinking of the marketing, obviously, the more inf you have, the more you can buy. And, since the "buy-in" is 50% higher during this sale than the one last year, then odds are, fewer packs overall will be bought. Patch that tidbit in with the idea that they won't go on sale next year, if ever again...then someone with the really big stacks can help keep these prices lower or higher. Price them too high, and folks will just use the reward merits for them - and you lose inf. from lack of sales. But, if you know the math, and you make it easy on folks, you can still make a tidy sum. So why not? 

[Yomo Kimyata]

You rang?

 

I recently wrote a guide on the Character Items menu and how it relates to packs.  (You should read it, it's not my finest work, but it's good!  here).  If you look at the probability tables @Bopper put together (All hail Bopper), you see that the tables for Heroes and Villains are essentially identical to Rogues and Vigilantes (the only difference is what flavor of ATO you get.)  They are also *very* similar to that of the Winter Packs, except that saleable *other stuff* is slightly more in the Hero packs than the Winter Packs.  That got me thinking.

 

Why are WOs fundamentally more valuable than ATOs?  I can make the argument that ATOs in general are more useful, more necessary to top builds.  They both cost the same number of merits at the merit vendor.  Is it simply because the packs are more expensive?  And I believe that yes, that is exactly why.  When Winter packs were 10mm last year, I hoovered up thousands of WOs at about 6mm (although many traded much higher).  Now, with a 15mm buy-in, WO floor prices seem to be about 10-11mm.  And when packs were 25mm, WO prices were roughly 20mm.

 

As of now, it looks like about 130k packs have sold, and I don't remember how many sold last year.  I ended up buying 1,000 packs and about 3,000 WOs (and eventually buying about 1,000 more packs) and flattened my inventory by around October iirc.  So I'm estimating that I can probably stand to open and resell no more than 5,000 packs per year, and that would be pushing it.

 

I'm still not sure what to do, but there's no way I'm buying more than 10,000 packs.  

[Troo]

meh..

 

the number of clicks some folks are willing to make to move from 5 billion to 25 billion is impressive. doing more.. is that really bringing joy or just speeding along the carpal tunnel?

 

there must be a word for recognizing one has more than they need.

[Yomo Kimyata]

2 hours ago, Troo said:

meh..

 

the number of clicks some folks are willing to make to move from 5 billion to 25 billion is impressive. doing more.. is that really bringing joy or just speeding along the carpal tunnel?

 

there must be a word for recognizing one has more than they need.

 

My conversation with Ukase (via message) covered some of this.  Winter Pack discounts only help to make the rich and/or knowledgeable richer.  They do nothing to help the rank and file player (although I hardly believe those exist anymore unless they just joined up, but that's another topic.)  I can't speak for him, but a lot of marketing for me has been about trying to outsmart others, especially those trying to manipulate markets.  I have nothing left to prove, no further goals to achieve.  And yet, I still am heavily involved in the marketplace, because I just cannot stand the idea of some other corporate fat cat getting my rightful inf.  So maybe the word you are looking for is "spiteful"?

 

I've said it before and I'll say it again:  the best way the powers that be in Homecoming can alter Winter Pack policy is to make them periodically drop as extremely rare drops.  But I don't think the technology exists to make that happen.  Maybe I'm wrong?  I hope so.

[Greycat]

10 hours ago, Yomo Kimyata said:

I've said it before and I'll say it again:  the best way the powers that be in Homecoming can alter Winter Pack policy is to make them periodically drop as extremely rare drops.  But I don't think the technology exists to make that happen.  Maybe I'm wrong?  I hope so.

 

They're salvage. I don't see why they couldn't be made to drop. Things in salvage can be made to *not* drop (legacy base salvage, for instance,) after all.

 

Honestly, I think all three should drop (on a very rare basis,) if nothing else just to introduce the player that might not pay attention to forums (and "get this build!") and/or the market that these things exist. "Hey, I got a super pack! ... what's a super pack?" will get people looking. And we definitely have new players.

[Hedgefund]

Winter Packs absolutely can drop as salvage.  I've witnessed it on other environments.

[Ukase]

I don't think they should randomly drop. I think they should be part of every reward table. Or at least most reward tables. 

Now, what might be more interesting is to have a random Winter-O be available after completing the Winter Lord trial or some other appropriate task, much the same way Overwhelming Force is available after Summer BB. 

And since the Summer BB is available year round - I see no reason why the Winter Lord trial can't be available year round. 

[tidge]

On 12/27/2021 at 4:47 PM, Yomo Kimyata said:

Why are WOs fundamentally more valuable than ATOs?  I can make the argument that ATOs in general are more useful, more necessary to top builds.  They both cost the same number of merits at the merit vendor.  Is it simply because the packs are more expensive?  And I believe that yes, that is exactly why.

 

I think a better argument is this, based on demand:

• EVERY AT can slot (almost every) Winter -O, but any given AT can only use two ATO sets.
• The Winter-Os have those very attractive Superior options (that again, every ATO can benefit from)

With a healthy dose of:

• Fire farm builds

Personally, I think the "top builds" argument is problematic as the type of content that is played determines performance. My preference for most builds is to look for the global +Recharge et al. bonuses from the lvl 50 Superior sets first. I like the look of those 5- and 6-piece bonuses from Winter-Os, but honestly the typical set bonus they offer that appeals the most to me is the Slow resistance... and I usually find another set's bonus that I prefer more than that.

[Andreah]

3 hours ago, tidge said:

 

I think a better argument is this, based on demand:

• EVERY AT can slot (almost every) Winter -O, but any given AT can only use two ATO sets.
• The Winter-Os have those very attractive Superior options (that again, every ATO can benefit from)

With a healthy dose of:

• Fire farm builds

Personally, I think the "top builds" argument is problematic as the type of content that is played determines performance. My preference for most builds is to look for the global +Recharge et al. bonuses from the lvl 50 Superior sets first. I like the look of those 5- and 6-piece bonuses from Winter-Os, but honestly the typical set bonus they offer that appeals the most to me is the Slow resistance... and I usually find another set's bonus that I prefer more than that.

I think both these arguments go together; it's supply being more restrictive due to the generally higher cost of winter packs, and the demand is there for almost every serious build.

[iBot]

Well I managed to go through a few batches of 10 over the weekend.  Opened them all and sold all the enh.  So far I've managed an OK profit without considering any of the other goodies yet since I'm kinda saving those to fund the next few alts once I figure out what the heck I want to run next.  Thinking this is a better strategy for me rather than waiting to sell them back at 24.5 mil later.

[Ukase]

So...there are three plays with Winter-Os which are going to be used the most, as far as "for profit" moves go. 

1. Buy now, open whenever, sell the enhancements and other things of value and make some inf. The amount isn't "fantastic", but with volume, you can make the case that it's as good as most other plays in the market. 
2. Buy now, open whenever, and sell the enhancements and other things of value when prices for these enhancement begin to creep up to what they were before the sale. As with most things in life, when we defer gratification, we reap more. 
3. Buy now, open none, repost and wait. The longer you're willing to wait (repost at 25M) the more you make. 

With the possibility of them not going on sale again...it's an interesting situation. On the one hand, it's not real life money - and most of us in this subsection forum can make as much inf as we need in short order. So, it's a question of how much inf do we want to hold onto for future needs/wants. I could make the case that I can spend all of my inf on packs, and subsist of them for ...years, maybe. But the market can be a fickle beast, and we all know our HC devs can change things within the game to impact the market with no notice. Heck, they may turn them into "gifts" that drop into special salvage by character for performing certain random tasks during the week. 

I have characters on Rebirth, but I'm not active there, not really. I don't monitor their forums (ugly format) so it always surprises me to log in when these servers are down and see certain characters have 25 Winter pack or 10 Hero packs - but only on certain characters in an account, not all of them. And their packs have purples, as well as ATOs in them, too. Quite strange. 

 

So...since it's fake loot, go nuts. But...anything can change...so temper your risks as you see fit.