500 merits in 25 packs

[Ukase]

So, I was able to open 24 and 2/5 of a pack before the server shut down on me. Would've finished, but I took some notes on the things that were important to me. 
 

540 Brain Storm Ideas (27 rares)
28 Winter-Os

120 candy canes

7 converters

3 boosters

500 reward merits

2 catalysts

3 winter wards/frost bite

7 experienced

and a lot of trash like team insps, winter beasts, respecs, tailor tokens. What am I gonna do with 400+ free tailor sessions? I hardly see the tailor after character creation. Wish I could sell 'em or give 'em away. 

I have no idea how many more packs I'll buy. I love the stuff that's in them - but I tend to use them, not sell them, so I don't often profit. It's more of how much I will save, then how much I'll profit. Hard to gauge how much I'll save, too, because prices are gonna drop on most things. (I think)

[Snowdaze]

31 minutes ago, Ukase said:

It's more of how much I will save, then how much I'll profit.

THIS!

[Yomo Kimyata]

@Ukaseby any chance did you track the number for sale before the event started?

 

[Ukase]

2 hours ago, Yomo Kimyata said:

@Ukaseby any chance did you track the number for sale before the event started?

 

I surely planned to - but my internet went down last night early evening, and didn't come back until after the event started.  "A cable was cut; we hope to resume service within 24 hours". 

[Yomo Kimyata]

Ok, for posterity's sake as of right now there are 9,983,800 for sale.  1 December 2020 1:45PM EST.

[Coyotedancer]

I usually have pretty questionable luck with Winter packs, but the set I cracked open this morning were pretty generous. 45 packs in total have resulted in 55 Winter O's, which is what I was really after. That'll give me a nice little stash for both the current brute project and some future tinkering.

 

Otherwise? A few hundred Brainstorms, 300 Merits, 145 Candycanes, 3 Catalysts, 2 Respec tokens, a few Converters and Boosters, a bunch of junk Inspies and a handful of temp powers.

 

 

 

 

Edited December 1, 2020 by Coyotedancer

[Glacier Peak]

Am I wrong in thinking that you can make the most profit from just buying these packs for 10 million and waiting for the event to end, then selling for 25 million (or less if you have no patience)?

[Saikochoro]

6 minutes ago, Glacier Peak said:

Am I wrong in thinking that you can make the most profit from just buying these packs for 10 million and waiting for the event to end, then selling for 25 million (or less if you have no patience)?

Perhaps. There will probably be plenty of people just flipping the packs so you’d have to price appropriately. 
 

Also, the demand for the packs themselves may be low for quite a while after the sale until the surplus of WOs goes down since that is a big reason to buy the packs in the first place. 

[Lockpick]

I'm buying the packs to keep the items, doubt I will sell anything.  I was buying 10 to 20 packs per character, but didn't think to document the drops.  For my last 2 characters I bought 10 packs and 4 for 14 total.

 

Results:

 

I didn't do rarity or anything, just total drops.

 

Pack Item	Pack Drops
Brainstorm	12
Candy Canes	9
Catalyst	1
Converter	3
Inspiration	17
IO	15
Merits	3
Respec	1
Tailor	2
Temp	1
Unslotter	3
Windfall	2
XP	1
Grand Total	70

[Ura Hero]

As data point, here are the results of 200 Winter Lord packs opened.

 

Brain Storm Ideas	3800
Reward Merits	2025
Candy Canes	760
Enhancement Unslotter	174
Enhancement Converter	162
Snow Beast	64
Avalanche	59
Blistering Cold	50
Enhancement Booster	50
Winter's Bite	47
Experienced	46
Frozen Blast	44
Entomb	32
Enhancement Catalyst	25
Free Tailor Session	14
Precise Imbuement	14
Insight Imbuement	13
Protecting Imbuement	12
Rugged Imbuement	12
Endurance Imbuement	10
Greater Health Imbuement	10
Good Luck Imbuement	10
Frosty Aegis	9
Protected	9
Frost Bite	9
Character Respec	9
Keen Insight Imbuement	9
Winter Ward	8
Tactical	8
Rejuvenate	8
Windfall	7
Tactical Imbuement	7
Health Imbuement	7
Guarded	7
Luck Imbuement	7
Greater Endurance Imbuement	6
Rejuvenating Imbuement	6
Protection Imbuement	5
Focused Rage Imbuement	5
Invigorating Imbuement	5
Precise	4
Rage Imbuement	4
Greater Protection Imbuement	4
Sturdy Imbuement	3
Invigorate	3
Guarding Imbuement	3

[Yomo Kimyata]

1 hour ago, Glacier Peak said:

Am I wrong in thinking that you can make the most profit from just buying these packs for 10 million and waiting for the event to end, then selling for 25 million (or less if you have no patience)?

I think the most profit you can make is to buy the packs now, then unpack them when the event is over and try to sell the contents for 30-35mm, net.  Reselling the packs post-event is also good, and assuming that you price appropriately and make sales at 25mm, you'll get 22.5mm net for a lot less effort.

 

Last year, I really expected a huge race to the bottom.  It was so obvious how a 60% sale on significant size was profitable that I assumed *everyone* would do the same thing.  I was actually looking forward to seeing what happened to Winter Packs in the aftermarket.  But nope, day after the event ended, people started paying 25mm again and it felt like I was the only one with any supply.  So I held onto them and gradually liquidated.

 

This year, I think people are smarter and there is an order of magnitude or two more of disposable inf, so I'm hoping we see a different type of post-event equilibrium.

[Jimmy]

5 hours ago, Yomo Kimyata said:

Ok, for posterity's sake as of right now there are 9,983,800 for sale.  1 December 2020 1:45PM EST.

We seeded exactly 10 million when the price changed, so that was the value when the shards went up.

 

I suppose that doesn’t factor in any that players had listed already, but I can’t imagine it being that many.

[Yomo Kimyata]

1 hour ago, Jimmy said:

We seeded exactly 10 million when the price changed, so that was the value when the shards went up.

 

I suppose that doesn’t factor in any that players had listed already, but I can’t imagine it being that many.

I am soothed by that knowledge, thank you.

[Glacier Peak]

These are great numbers for data points. I'm excited to see if there is a formula to these packs. I think once we see a thousand or more packs' results we can begin to extrapolate. 

[EmperorSteele]

For the HC Winter Event, RNGesus gave to me:

12 Winter-Os
11 Inspirations
10 Tailor Tokens
9 Canes o' Candy
8 stacks o' Brain Storms
7 Enh Converters
6 hundred Merits
FIIIIIIVE, Stat-boost, THIIIIIIIINGS!
4 re-specs

3 Snowy Beasts

2 Windfall powers
And a Partridge in a pear tree!

[macskull]

6 hours ago, Saikochoro said:

Perhaps. There will probably be plenty of people just flipping the packs so you’d have to price appropriately. 
 

Also, the demand for the packs themselves may be low for quite a while after the sale until the surplus of WOs goes down since that is a big reason to buy the packs in the first place. 

Last year, the price of winter-o's went back up to its pre-winter-event value pretty quickly. I wanna say it was only a few days.

 

Also for those interested, a data point from last year, when I documented 61 packs (enhancements are all lumped together here but my raw data has the specific ones):

Brain Storm Idea		1240
Build Snow Beast 		30
Candy Cane 			210
Character Respec 		3
Dual Inspiration 		14
Enhancement 			65
Enhancement Booster		13
Enhancement Catalyst 		11
Enhancement Converter 		66
Enhancement Unslotter 		38
Experienced 			18
Free Tailor Session 		5
Frost Bite 			5
Reward Merit 			600
Team Inspiration 		38
Windfall 			2
Winter Ward 			4

 

[Ukase]

735 packs: (had to stop. Takes quite some time, especially when you're keeping track) I didn't bother tracking inspirations.)
14080 Brain Storm
7175 Merits
2830 Candy Canes

245 Snow Beast

312 Boosters (Frost bite, Aegis, etc)

93 Catalysts

1323 Converters

542 Unslotters

907 Winter IOs

[Bill Z Bubba]

1 minute ago, Ukase said:

735 packs

Wow.

 

I was unlucky. 70 packs, 69 IOs.

[Coyotedancer]

1 minute ago, Bill Z Bubba said:

Wow.

 

I was unlucky. 70 packs, 69 IOs.

That's the kind of luck I usually have. XD

[Ukase]

Over time, I believe the law of averages will work for you. Buy more packs. 

 

[Faultline]

5 hours ago, Glacier Peak said:

These are great numbers for data points. I'm excited to see if there is a formula to these packs. I think once we see a thousand or more packs' results we can begin to extrapolate. 

Or you could just ask...

[Bopper]

8 minutes ago, Faultline said:

Or you could just ask...

May I please have all the formulas? Really...anything you got 🙂

[Faultline]

• The first two cards are always common.
• The third card is 1/5 common, 4/5 uncommon
• The fourth card is 1/5 uncommon, 4/5 rare.
• The fifth card is 1/5 rare, 4/5 very rare
• Only Rares and Very Rares drop Enhancements, and the weights are set to the same regardless of pack.
  • Rare: 78/112 are enhancements
  • Very Rare: 78/122 are enhancements
  • For the Heroes & Villains / Rogues & Vigilantes pack, every enhancement is weight 1 always, equal chance to drop regardless of card rarity.
  • For the Winter pack, because there's a lot less enhancements, they have higher weights and change by rarity:
    • Rare: Avalanche, Frozen Blast, Winter Bite have weight 3; Blistering Cold, Entomb have weight 2.
    • Very Rare: Avalanche, Blistering Cold, Entomb have weight 3; Frozen Blast, Winter's Bite have weight 2.
    • Yes, this means Avalanche is the more likely to drop. Can't be helped without adding another set to even the odds.
• Non-enhancement drops are tuned to hit specific targets over large pack openings; for example, Reward Merits are weighted 6/59 in commons (25 merits), 1/34 in uncommons (50 merits), 1/54 in rares (75 merits) and 1/58 in very rares (100 merits) to get it as close as possible to 10 merits per pack; the exact rate is 9.83 per pack.
• Full breakdown of all drops in the next post.
• Bopper posted a nicer breakdown here: https://forums.homecomingservers.com/topic/24719-psa-super-packs-probability-of-drops/

[Faultline]

• Common cards by weight:
  • Inspiration: 26 (1 for each card)
  • 20 Brain Storm Ideas: 6
  • 25 Reward Merits: 6
  • Free Tailor Session: 1
  • Experienced: 4
  • Enhancement Converter: 6 (H&V/R&V) 3 (LOW)
  • Enhancement Unslotter: 6 (H&V/R&V) 3 (LOW)
  • 5 Candy Canes: 6 (LOW)
  • Restore: 2 (H&V/R&V)
  • Revival: 2 (H&V/R&V)
  • Build Snow Beast: 4 (LOW)
• Uncommon cards by weight:
  • 40 Brain Storm Ideas: 8
  • 50 Reward Merits: 1
  • Free Tailor session: 1
  • Experienced: 2
  • 5 Enhancement Converter: 8 (H&V/R&V) 4 (LOW)
  • 5 Enhancement Unslotter: 8 (H&V/R&V) 4 (LOW)
  • 10 Candy Canes: 8 (LOW)
  • Restore: 3 (H&V/R&V)
  • Revival: 3 (H&V/R&V)
  • Build Snow Beast: 6 (LOW)
• Rare cards by weight:
  • Enhancements: 78 (see previous post)
  • 60 Brain Storm Ideas: 5
  • 75 Reward Merits: 2
  • Enhancement Booster: 8
  • Enhancement Catalyst: 4
  • Character Respec: 2
  • Experienced: 4
  • Windfall: 3
  • Defense Amplifier (H&V/R&V) / Frosty Aegis (LOW): 2
  • Offense Amplifier (H&V/R&V) / Frost Bite (LOW): 2
  • Survival Amplifier (H&V/R&V) / Winter Ward (LOW): 2
• Very rare cards by weight:
  • Enhancements: 78 (see previous post)
  • 80 Brain Storm Ideas: 6
  • 100 Reward Merits: 2
  • 3 Enhancement Booster: 8
  • 3 Enhancement Catalyst: 6
  • Character Respec: 2
  • Experienced: 4
  • Defense Amplifier (H&V/R&V) / Frosty Aegis (LOW): 4
  • Offense Amplifier (H&V/R&V) / Frost Bite (LOW): 4
  • Survival Amplifier (H&V/R&V) / Winter Ward (LOW): 4
• Experienced exists in all rarities because originally it was 25% XP booster (uncommon), 50% XP booster (rare) and Double XP Booster (very rare) but because HC made those free in P2W they were replaced with Experienced at the same drop rate.

[Rejolt]

50 packs:

65 Winter IOs

275 reward merits

 

It feels like 1.2 IOs is the average as if I open 5 packs 2 will be doubles, 2 will be singles and one has none.

 

I got 25 rewards merits in my first 20 packs (total) but had 33 Winter IOs

 

In my next 30 I got 32 IOs and 250 reward merits

 

Catalysts are like nails on a chalkboard to me. I rotate level 50 alts so I always have more that I can use.