500 merits in 25 packs

[Troo]

Thank you all for your participation
 

Spoiler

 

 

opening cards... meh, just too many clicks for me.

[Glacier Peak]

1 hour ago, Troo said:

Thank you all for your participation
 

  Hide contents

 

 

opening cards... meh, just too many clicks for me.

I've been going the 6 mill under cut one these, soon they will drop to 5 with more entering the market. Everything seems to be dropping in price, converters, boosters, rare salvage, etc.

[WindDemon21]

22 hours ago, Faultline said:

For the Heroes & Villains / Rogues & Vigilantes pack, every enhancement is weight 1 always, equal chance to drop regardless of card rarity.

Can we get a list of which IOs are in which pack?

[Greycat]

52 minutes ago, WindDemon21 said:

Can we get a list of which IOs are in which pack?

Listed on the wiki.  

Click the set you're interested in.

[Yomo Kimyata]

10 hours ago, Troo said:

Thank you all for your participation
 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

opening cards... meh, just too many clicks for me.

 

9 hours ago, Glacier Peak said:

I've been going the 6 mill under cut one these, soon they will drop to 5 with more entering the market. Everything seems to be dropping in price, converters, boosters, rare salvage, etc.

I set my noob traps before the event and adjusted bids thereafter.  I figure I've created about a thousand synthetic Winter Packs by now.  I can't wait until the event ends, then it's full on Market PvP!

[Sakai]

Synthetic Winter Packs?  What might those be?

 

Oh...you are buying things cheaply that you get in the packs. 

Edited December 3, 2020 by Sakai
Moment of clarity

[Yomo Kimyata]

17 minutes ago, Sakai said:

Synthetic Winter Packs?  What might those be?

 

Oh...you are buying things cheaply that you get in the packs. 

Exactly.  I figure that an "ideal" winter pack would be 1.2 WOs and 50 converters.  Avoid that whole "Build Snow Beast" nonsense.

[Rejolt]

Even though Avalanche has the coveted 5 percent melee defense in a paboe set, it's the most common of the IO drops. Might be a good set to low bid on even if you don't need them as conversion bait later.

[Bopper]

9 hours ago, Greycat said:

Listed on the wiki.  

Click the set you're interested in.

Thanks for the link. I noticed some of the probabilities were outdated so I posted the correct numbers here (2nd post): 

I also went ahead and posted the breakdown of each item you can collect, along with their count (which was missing from the HC Wiki link).

[AboveTheChemist]

1 hour ago, Bopper said:

Thanks for the link. I noticed some of the probabilities were outdated so I posted the correct numbers here (2nd post): 

I added the two tables from the second post in your link to the Super Pack HC wiki page, along with references to the origin of the info. I'll drop a note in the wiki club about the other tables, as those will require a bit more time to incorporate.

[Yomo Kimyata]

In theory, with this info from @Lunchmoney, someone* could put together a monte carlo simulator for fun and profit.

 

* not it.

[Bopper]

29 minutes ago, Yomo Kimyata said:

In theory, with this info from @Lunchmoney, someone* could put together a monte carlo simulator for fun and profit.

 

* not it.

That's fairly easy to program, but what exactly do you want to see? 

[Yomo Kimyata]

7 minutes ago, Bopper said:

That's fairly easy to program, but what exactly do you want to see? 

I'd look for an expected value of a Winter Pack given certain sales prices for the components, e.g., WOs are worth X(set), merits are worth Y, etc.  Run a simulation 10,000 or so times and come up with an E(WP), then vary the assumptions for scenario analysis.  I could probably cobble something together relatively quickly in VBA (I'm not exactly an expert programmer), but it's perilously close to work-like activity, and I'm really only idly curious.  I highly doubt that I'm going to go all in on Winter Packs this year.

[Bopper]

12 minutes ago, Yomo Kimyata said:

I'd look for an expected value of a Winter Pack given certain sales prices for the components, e.g., WOs are worth X(set), merits are worth Y, etc.  Run a simulation 10,000 or so times and come up with an E(WP), then vary the assumptions for scenario analysis.  I could probably cobble something together relatively quickly in VBA (I'm not exactly an expert programmer), but it's perilously close to work-like activity, and I'm really only idly curious.  I highly doubt that I'm going to go all in on Winter Packs this year.

I provided a breakdown of average number of rewards per Super Pack (I'll copy it below). You could take those numbers and put in what the average value on the market is. 

 

	Average per Pack
Frosty Aegis	0.0441
Frost Bite	0.0441
Winter Ward	0.0441
Brain Storm Ideas	19.7125
Build Snow Beast	0.3256
Candy Canes	3.4716
Character Respec	0.0310
Enhancement Booster	0.2288
Enhancement Catalyst	0.1537
Enhancement Converter	0.7001
Enhancement Unslotter	0.7001
Winter IO	1.2079
Experienced	0.2699
Free Tailor Session	0.0667
Inspiration	0.9695
Reward Merits	9.7146
Windfall	0.0530

Edited December 3, 2020 by Bopper

[Yomo Kimyata]

yup, that's easier!  thanks!

[Ukase]

12 hours ago, Yomo Kimyata said:

Exactly.  I figure that an "ideal" winter pack would be 1.2 WOs and 50 merits.  Avoid that whole "Build Snow Beast" nonsense.

Fixed that for you. 

[Ukase]

@Yomo - this is what I did for the hero/rogue packs.   
As a key of sorts - you can see the first line is Unslotters. The number to the right is the number of unslotters I got in the 50 packs. The 100,000 $ you see is what a low post price might be on the AH based on what I saw in the AH when I was opening the packs. I don't normally sell any of those things - so no idea really what they usually go for. The 6,400,000 is obviously the expected return, not accounting for the AH fee. As you can see, being a Rogue barely paid in this situation. 

It would be simple to set up a similar table in Excel, I would think. (this was done about a month ago - before the winter sale, which is why the prices may not reflect current market conditions.)

 

	50 packs	Hero			50 Packs	Rogue
Unslotters	64	100,000	$       6,400,000	113	100,000	$    11,300,000
Catalysts	15	1600000	$    24,000,000	3	1600000	$       4,800,000
Boosters	9	1000000	$       9,000,000	17	1000000	$    17,000,000
ATOs	58	6500000	$  377,000,000	50	6500000	$  325,000,000
Merits	550	210000	$  115,500,000	450	210000	$    94,500,000
Experienced	11			11		$                        -
Converter	80	70000	$       5,600,000	60	70000	$       4,200,000
Brain Storm	1040	25000	$    26,000,000	1120	25000	$    28,000,000
Amplifier	7	2500000	$    17,500,000	9	2500000	$    22,500,000
			$  581,000,000			$  507,300,000

[Lunchmoney]

10 hours ago, Yomo Kimyata said:

In theory, with this info from @Lunchmoney, someone* could put together a monte carlo simulator for fun and profit.

 

* not it.

What? Not sure why I'm being tagged here?

[Yomo Kimyata]

5 hours ago, Lunchmoney said:

What? Not sure why I'm being tagged here?

I apologize, I am not sure why I meant @Faultlinebut somehow ended up with @Lunchmoney.  I'm sure there is a Freudian reference in there somewhere.

[Yomo Kimyata]

9 hours ago, Ukase said:

Fixed that for you. 

Actually, I really did mean converters.  I started with 30 for the ~10 expected merits per pack, then rounded up to 50 because it seemed about right.  

[Saikochoro]

Well, I’m eating my earlier words. The biggest reason I haven’t used WOs in most of my builds is because of how expensive they are and the fact that they don’t give +rech bonuses. Since their price has tanked one of those hurdles is gone. So I decided to make a character that has two sets. 
 

Therefore I bought 16 packs. I don’t have all the data, but I do have the highlights. 
-25 merits total

-over 500 brainstorm ideas

-a lot of inspirations and temp powers

-20 Winter O’s

 

I am using 6 of the WOs and will sit on the other 14 until they start selling for 20m+ again.  So, in the end, it will be profitable. I’m tempted to buy more, but at the same time don’t feel like sitting on most of my potential wealth for 8 months because I make new toons and kit them out so often. Cant afford to not be liquid. 

Edited December 8, 2020 by Saikochoro

[Incursion]

I'm completely clueless as to what these packs are and how to get them. Back in game for 3 weeks now, have been grinding my tail off  buying all the IO's off the market.  Can someone clue me in?

Edited December 8, 2020 by Incursion

[Yomo Kimyata]

5 minutes ago, Incursion said:

I'm completely clueless as to what these packs are and how to get them. Back in game for 3 weeks now, have been grinding my tail off  buying all the IO's off the market.  Can someone clue me in?

They are listed under salvage:  special.  They are in theory tradeable, but are seeded with 10mm available at (currently) 10mm a pack.

[Incursion]

15 minutes ago, Yomo Kimyata said:

They are listed under salvage:  special.  They are in theory tradeable, but are seeded with 10mm available at (currently) 10mm a pack.

Thank you